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[Hawkian]

I'll take my chances with 1 out of 76 over 1 out of 431 any day

colbertesque

 

[sc0la]

WHAT EPISODE

The one about trolling

 

[Cheebo]

What, that one unfunny show?

Spoiler

Not liking Seinfeld is worse than being a member of the tea party.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I didn't know you could get into Harvard Law School with a 2.6 GPA!

I like how it claims he had a 3.7 at Harvard at the very same time. Yea, what a dumbass. Barack Obama, 3.7 (allegedly) at Harvard and HLR editor.

 

[Bowdz]

I didn't know you could get into Harvard Law School with a 2.6 GPA!

Harvard lowers their grade requirements for foreign students.

 

[ViperVisor]

Roughly half the size...

Police?

That # is skewed down by a factor of 2. Gay and Black.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Did you know Obama only got a 2.6 GPA in college?

They hand out the titles of Head of Harvard Law Review to anyone...

2.6 GPA?

COME ON IN!!!

 

[Foothills]

That's because she's living proof you can't buy an election..

Hold on - governor meg whitman of california disagrees.

 

[Puddles]

I like how it claims he had a 3.7 at Harvard at the very same time. Yea, what a dumbass. Barack Obama, 3.7 (allegedly) at Harvard and HLR editor.

A 3.7 at Harvard is probably easier than a 3.7 at most universities if the reports of grade inflation are true. Still a great GPA though.

 

[PhoenixDark]

A 3.7 at Harvard is probably easier than a 3.7 at most universities if the reports of grade inflation are true. Still a great GPA though.

Yea I know. I'm just saying, how the fuck does someone believe Obama had a 2.6 at Columbia...then got into Harvard law school and earned a 3.7 (and become editor of the HLR). How the fuck does that work?

 

[Oblivion]

I didn't know you could get into Harvard Law School with a 2.6 GPA!

Affirmative Action.

 

[RDreamer]

Yea I know. I'm just saying, how the fuck does someone believe Obama had a 2.6 at Columbia...then got into Harvard law school and earned a 3.7 (and become editor of the HLR). How the fuck does that work?

They just gave it to him because he's black.

 

[Amir0x]

God I hate these "fact checks" as we approach election day

OBAMA in Green Bay: :

—"Another $5 trillion tax cut that favors the wealthy isn't change."

—"But if the price of peace in Washington is cutting deals that will kick students off of financial aid, or get rid of funding for Planned Parenthood, or eliminate health care for millions on Medicaid who are poor or elderly or disabled, just to give a millionaire a tax cut, I'm not having it."

THE FACTS: This supercharged critique of Romney's agenda assigns a misleading price tag to the Republican's tax plan, which calls for tax cuts for all income groups, not just millionaires. Romney is not proposing to "eliminate health care" for Medicaid recipients or to throw students to the wolves, although it's within the bounds of political debate to assume the worst of your rival's policy ideas.

Obama gets the $5 trillion figure from a forecast by the Tax Policy Center that Romney's tax cuts would reduce federal revenue by $465 billion in 2015 — in the ballpark of $5 trillion if spread over 10 years. But Obama is ignoring a crucial feature of the plan: that Romney says he would greatly lower its cost by reducing or eliminating some tax credits, deductions and exemptions, especially for wealthier taxpayers. Romney won't be specific, but it's clear $5 trillion is just one side of the equation.

Sure Romney won't provide any details and has already taken all the deductions that would even make a dent in the bucket off the table, but Obama is wrong when he doesn't take Romney at his word that his fairytale magicland math will suddenly work the second he steps into office! For all we know that 5 trillion dollars might be $0 by inauguration day with all them deductions and loop holes being crossed off!

 

[B-Dubs]

Hold on - governor meg whitman of california disagrees.

Well apparently the North East has more character and whatnot than Cali. We like our politicians rich, likable, and (half-way) decent human beings.

 

[pigeon]

Hold on - governor meg whitman of california has no comment, this interview is over.

Fixed!

edit: foothill's joke is that she didn't win, jerry brown is governor AGAIN

 

[pigeon]

By the way...82.7%, 83.9% nowcast.

 

[Half and half]

I didn't know you could get into Harvard Law School with a 2.6 GPA!

His transcript is probably faker than his birth certificate.

 

[Touchdown]

I remember when they did this before the 2008 campaign at some of the rallies. Bless their hearts.

 

[Fragamemnon]

God I hate these "fact checks" as we approach election day



Sure Romney won't provide any details and has already taken all the deductions that would even make a dent in the bucket off the table, but Obama is wrong when he doesn't take Romney at his word that his fairytale magicland math will suddenly work the second he steps into office! For all we know that 5 trillion dollars might be $0 by inauguration day with all them deductions and loop holes being crossed off!

I hate this crap too. Sure, it's 'one side of the equation'. Until Romney solves for X on the other side, it's a budget-busting blowout.

 

[pigeon]

Obama's national standing has improved to the point that the model now considers Nebraska's 2nd district in play (though with only a 13% chance of him winning).

 

[Angry Grimace]

If it makes you feel any better about Hustedgate, I just got my CA Absentee Ballot three hours ago in the mail. Pretty much everyone affected by the "thrown away" ballots already got theirs fixed well before I got mine.

 

[Big Papa Husker]

Obama's national standing has improved to the point that the model now considers Nebraska's 2nd district in play (though with only a 13% chance of him winning).

I did my part.

 

[Fragamemnon]

I remember when they did this before the 2008 campaign at some of the rallies. Bless their hearts.

Honestly it kind of sucks that it's taken so long for more people to realize that it was clear that Romney's math wasn't likely to add up. McCain's supporters and townhall attendees got more and more unhinged as election day closed, and by golly it was hilarious. To the point where the media would cover the crazy in the audience more than the empty , sad old man on the stage.

 

[teh_pwn]

By the way...82.7%, 83.9% nowcast.

Higher than the super secret real employment rate.

Bad news for Obama.

 

[pigeon]

Also, I think this is the first time in quite a while that Obama's chance to win is higher than his chance to win Ohio (indicating a steadily improving chance to win enough other swing states that Ohio doesn't matter).

trolling:

Obama has an 82.66543% chance of winning the Electoral College in tonight's forecast. fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

 

[PhoenixDark]

Nate is clearly trolling now. I think we're finally seeing the sports statistician Nate that wasn't really visible in 2008: ie someone used to being attacked, and perfectly capable of fighting back

 

[Marvie_3]

By the way...82.7%, 83.9% nowcast.

FL down to 54.6%

 

[Byakuya769]

Spoiler

Not liking Seinfeld is worse than being a member of the tea party.

Had a friend who swore that Friends was the superior show. What happened to him remains a mystery...

 

[pigeon]

Nate is clearly trolling now. I think we're finally seeing the sports statistician Nate that wasn't really visible in 2008: ie someone used to being attacked, and perfectly capable of fighting back

Oh, he's definitely trolling. Nobody gets to be a statistician for 538 without knowing about significant figures.

 

[Father_Brain]

Oh, he's definitely trolling. Nobody gets to be a statistician for 538 without knowing about significant figures.

Think he's been granted access to Obama internals again?

 

[Hawkian]

Had a friend who swore that Friends was the superior show. What happened to him remains a mystery...

He work for the phone company?

 

[PhoenixDark]

Had a friend who swore that Friends was the superior show. What happened to him remains a mystery...

I'm sure his ballot will be counted a few times in Florida and Ohio

 

[BuggyDClown]

Had a friend who swore that Friends was the superior show. What happened to him remains a mystery...

He's helping Romney's campaign.

 

[B-Dubs]

Also, I think this is the first time in quite a while that Obama's chance to win is higher than his chance to win Ohio (indicating a steadily improving chance to win enough other swing states that Ohio doesn't matter).

trolling:

Personally I'd like to see more decimal places.

 

[The Librarian]

Think he's been granted access to Obama internals again?

Again?

 

[el retorno]

trolling:

Its sublet though.

 

[Amir0x]

Again?

in 2008 he was granted access to Obama campaign internal polls, which gave him quite a leg up on the competition in terms of statistical prediction of likely outcome

 

[Hazmat]

He work for the phone company?

Completely off topic, but this got a legitimate LOL from me.

 

[Byakuya769]

Oh shit, looks like MThanded got the hammer for the dreaded "you can't read" blast. I know that feel, I made the same mistake. The guy who called me a "dumbass" lived to post another day, though.

 

[hym]

Hah Bill O'Reily is running with the Pew study of Media bias
http://www.journalism.org/analysis_report/winning_media_campaign_2012

No mention that Romney is excessively successful at providing negative stories.

Edit: according to Bill, MSNBC never said anything positive about Romney, he clearly didn't watch the aftermath of the first debate, Joe Scarborough doesn't count for some reason.

 

[dvolovets]

Wow, so if Florida actually manages to go to Obama, it's pretty much over and done with, right? He would only need to win one other swing state, which includes obviously non-swing states like Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada...awesome.

 

[B-Dubs]

Wow, so if Florida actually manages to go to Obama, it's pretty much over and done with, right? He would only need to win one other swing state, which includes obviously non-swing states like Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada...awesome.

I'm pretty sure he wins if he just gets Ohio and Florida, I don't think he needs anything else.

 

[Angry Grimace]

What's up with Nate's listing of Ipsos online polls and giving them super low weightings at times and then at other times giving them full weighting?

I'm pretty sure he wins if he just gets Ohio and Florida, I don't think he needs anything else.

Of the actual close states, if he gets VA and NH he will win. Romney NEEDS VA period to win as far as I can tell. NH is practically lost. There's a number of asshole troll scenarios that result in a Bams win, i.e. Obama loses every big swing except CO and IA.

 

[Hazmat]

Wow, so if Florida actually manages to go to Obama, it's pretty much over and done with, right? He would only need to win one other swing state, which includes obviously non-swing states like Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada...awesome.

If by some crazy chance Florida is called early for Obama this thing is done.

 

[Hawkian]

I'm pretty sure he wins if he just gets Ohio and Florida, I don't think he needs anything else.

This is virtually true. Ohio and Florida alone get him past 270 under all but but the most ludicrous scenarios.

 

[Tim-E]

Ohio, Nevada, and Iowa are over 80% on Fivethirtyeight. Romney literally has no path to 270 without them.

 

[Fragamemnon]

There would have to be something seriously messed up for Obama to win FL and not easily take CO, VA, OH,IA,NV, and WI.

If FL is called for Obama before 11PM, then the real nailbiter, decided-next-day state will be NC.

 

[pigeon]

What's up with Nate's listing of Ipsos online polls and giving them super low weightings at times and then at other times giving them full weighting?

They're tracking polls, so the new day of tracking polls supersedes the old ones.

 

[Bishman]

"If you want to understand why voters no longer trust pollsters, look no further than the latest CNN poll of Ohio voters, showing President Barack Obama with a 50%-47% lead over Gov. Mitt Romney--a result that is within the poll’s 3.5% margin of error, but which suggests a slight Obama lead. The internal numbers reveal that Romney is leading among independents by 2%, and winning Election Day voters by a staggering 13%."

Indiana (11 electoral votes). Uncontested. Romney.

North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.

Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don't see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don't mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.

Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney.

Colorado (9). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney.

Iowa (6). The unexpected Romney endorsements by the Des Moines Register and three other newspapers gave voice to buyer's remorse in a state Obama carried by 10 points. Democrats' traditional margin in early voting has declined. Romney.

Minnesota (10). A surprise last-minute media buy for the Romney campaign. But probably a bridge too far. Obama.

New Hampshire (4). Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail. Romney.

Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.

Nevada (6). Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas' Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions' turnout machine on Election Day re-elected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they'll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama.

Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don't see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.

Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), New Jersey (14). Uncontested. Obama.

Michigan (16). Romney chose Pennsylvania, where there's no auto bailout issue. Obama.

Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223

His prediction has my ribs hurting.

 

[AniHawk]

Amazing crowd in one of the most important Ohio counties

you'd think they'd try this in a swing state instead of ohio.