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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
I like when people get this delusional idea that the campaign's internal numbers are equivalent to election polling.
 
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hym

Banned
SSGMUN10000 said:
Its like deja vu all over again from 2008. Same type of people nothing has changed. Is the GOP this stupid? Don't they see the writing that they need to change.
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It's not really that far fetched to believe that the demographic of uniformed to misinformed voters will grow as long as you hamstring the education system and encourage people that can't support a family to have lots of kids.

And Christianity will have your back in that crusade.
 
T

Tristam

Member
Touchdown said:
I remember when they did this before the 2008 campaign at some of the rallies. Bless their hearts.
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That's actually not nearly as bad as what I saw from New Left Media's interviews of McCain supporters (at an Ohio rally, even) in 2008. Yeah, the right's vitriolic hatred for Obama remains extreme, but there's not really any fear to flesh out their fury. Most are probably vaguely aware that Obama has governed from the right on many issues, and even more are aware that their beliefs that "the blacks" will take over the country (a sentiment repeatedly conveyed in the 2008 New Left Media video) were unfounded.

The GOP has cried wolf so many times that their attacks really have lost some credibility, even if that doesn't always appear to be so. They were last able to whip the populace into a stupid frenzy over the health care bill, but its passage did not lead to "Armageddon" as Boehner publicly said it would.
 
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agrajag

Banned
hey Polligaf, I'm arguing with some dude that's saying that all the polls have actually more respondents for Romney but that the polls adjust their results to match what they believe will be a democratic turnout in the election or something. What is he talking about?
 
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airmangataosenai

Member
NEidE.jpg


Never forget.
 
I

isoquant

Member
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RDreamer

Member
agrajag said:
hey Polligaf, I'm arguing with some dude that's saying that all the polls have actually more respondents for Romney but that the polls adjust their results to match what they believe will be a democratic turnout in the election or something. What is he talking about?
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Conservatives seem to have this conspiracy theory going on that the pollsters are oversampling democrats in their polls. Most credible pollsters don't weight by party, though, because that can change very dramatically. They take a congruent sample with respect to demographics and let people answer however they would answer. What seems to be happening is that there are more democrats in these polls, but less republicans. At the same time, however there are quite a few independents and Romney is winning them in a lot of the polls. If you look at the trend of party identification in these polls you can infer that there's a block of people who are basically republicans that are now calling themselves independent to pollsters.
 
A

agrajag

Banned
RDreamer said:
Conservatives seem to have this conspiracy theory going on that the pollsters are oversampling democrats in their polls. Most credible pollsters don't weight by party, though, because that can change very dramatically. They take a congruent sample with respect to demographics and let people answer however they would answer. What seems to be happening is that there are more democrats in these polls, but less republicans. At the same time, however there are quite a few independents and Romney is winning them in a lot of the polls. If you look at the trend of party identification in these polls you can infer that there's a block of people who are basically republicans that are now calling themselves independent to pollsters.
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But there's actually no evidence that the pollsters manipulate their results, right? Which is what he was saying.
 
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Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
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Officerrob

Banned
Cheebo said:
Did some checking. They are located out of Florida and considered the best in the state. Odd how their margin is so different than other polls.
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Something is odd about this poll. This poll is a RV poll, not a LV poll and claims to have Romney up 6 with RV? That's probably a +10% LV lead, and that's bullshit.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Father_Brain said:
Guys, this Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reporter/columnist is teasing a poll hitting in just over 24 hours that will TOTALLY prove Romney can win PA. Should I be worried?

https://twitter.com/SalenaZitoTrib
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It's Susquehanna. They work only with GOP candidates. They showed Romney up 4 in Pennsylvania at the same time as Rasmussen showed Obama up 5. If Susquehanna can only produce a poll that "shows it's close," it's a lock for Obama. If Susquehanna showed a Romney landslide, I might worry.

The fact that Jay Cost loves her so much is another heavy warning sign.

fake edit: Here it is: PA 49-45

http://twitchy.com/2012/11/02/new-poll-shows-romney-up-by-4-in-pennsylvania/

That's exactly what they showed while everybody else was showing mid-single digit leads for Obama. It's a done deal.

real edit: Similarly, Mason-Dixon showed Romney up by SEVEN in Florida after the first debate. This is a one point gain for Obama since the 9th.
 
M

Mario

Sidhe / PikPok
Well, I managed to get about 6 minutes into the latest episode of Hannity before having to switch channels. Wanted to see just how far right the far right spin was. Wow, off the deep end.

Like some others here have suggested, his meltdown will be the most epic and tears most sweet on the back of an Obama win.
 
I

isoquant

Member
Byakuya769 said:
Having a reasonably deduced opinion is shilling for Obama now.

Oh, ok.

WAPO is dominated by professional centrists / Georgetown socialites, who argued conservatives?
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Wait a minute. I actually like the Washington Post (and I'm an Obama supporter).

But yes, posting pro-Obama article (or anti-Romney article) after pro-Obama article should be classified as 'shilling'. When your paper reaches the point of releasing an official statement claiming the Republican presidential candidate has a deep-seated contempt for the American people, then they should be called out for shilling.

Your response is similar to those who dismissed that Pew Media Bias study. 'MSNBC only features more biased stories because Romney is so bad!' It's such a cringe-worthy rationalization.

As for who was arguing they were dominated by conservatives, quadriplegicjon comes to mind.
 
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RDreamer

Member
agrajag said:
But there's actually no evidence that the pollsters manipulate their results, right? Which is what he was saying.
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No, and here's why they don't

“Party ID is not a demographic quality like age, sex, income or education. It’s an attitude,” said Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center. “And it’s an attitude that varies with preferences, so generally when a Republican wins you will see a boost in Republican identification and when a Democrat wins you will see a boost in Democratic identification. If you try to standardize the party ID number, you standardize out some of that change.”
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"If a pollster weights by party ID, they are substituting their own judgment as to what the electorate is going to look like. It's not scientific," said Doug Schwartz, the director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
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VvWOu.jpg
 
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markatisu

Member
HylianTom said:
NBC Ohio Marist Poll: 51-45 /// Obama +6
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/...ad-in-ohio-deadlocked-with-romney-in-fla?lite
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In Ohio, Obama holds a six-point advantage over Romney among likely voters, 51 percent to 45 percent, which is unchanged from last month’s poll in the Buckeye State.

Read the Ohio poll here

And in Florida, the president gets support from 49 percent of likely voters, while his GOP challenger gets 47 percent. Those numbers are virtually identical to the ones from October, when it was Obama 48 percent, Romney 47 percent.
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He might just get Florida too
 
T

Touchdown

Banned
Mario said:
Well, I managed to get about 6 minutes into the latest episode of Hannity before having to switch channels. Wanted to see just how far right the far right spin was. Wow, off the deep end.

Like some others here have suggested, his meltdown will be the most epic and tears most sweet on the back of an Obama win.
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I'm looking forward to Hannity's 1st show after the election and even moreso for Jon Stewart's take of Hannity's show after the election. lol
Secretly Fox News would love Obama to win because since 2008 their ratings have been through the roof. Its easy and fun to have someone to rail against every day/night. When Bush was in office, their whole script was to defend Bush to the bitter end and frame anyone who questioned the government as un-American. Kinda boring :/ and their ratings were lower, although still number one.
 
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