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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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PhoenixDark
Banned
It's also worth noting that the 1980 "undetected" wave was possible in part due to poor polling techniques and a lack of data
It's kinda sad. I'm starting to see cracks in the bubble for the conservatives around me, which means that their meltdowns are going to be a bit less pronounced. Instead of the usual deluded bullshit bravado, they've been veeerrrry quiet.
Aww.. who am I kidding? They'll lash-out regardless in a few days. Yum!
Aww.. who am I kidding? They'll lash-out regardless in a few days. Yum!
Which is probably why they believe its going to happen, to the right every polling technique is flawed.
I don't think there was ever in the history of the world a political gathering where the law enforcement attendance estimates weren't significantly lower than the organizers'.
Don't hate the playa.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Yup. Problem is that polling is a lot better today, more professional, and there are too many polls to simply dismiss every one that doesn't benefit your side (that goes to liberals too, btw); notice three weeks ago conservatives had no problem with the polls, which showed a tightening race mainly due to independents moving to the R side. Now independents seem to be moving back towards dems, although I maintain some of the IDs are ridiculous (+9 dem in Ohio for instance).
I don't think a lot of the GOP pundits really believe there is some kind of secret Romney surge that hasn't been picked up on by ANY polling agency.
They just know they have to pretend it's a close race so they can get as many of their voters out there as possible.
I think 2008 felt much the same way to me -- where some people couldn't keep from convincing themselves that McCain could pull out a win, and they said so right up until the moment he officially lost FL and OH. And this was even though McCain had clearly already given up, and was fucking around on Saturday Night Live 3 days before the election.
They just know they have to pretend it's a close race so they can get as many of their voters out there as possible.
I think 2008 felt much the same way to me -- where some people couldn't keep from convincing themselves that McCain could pull out a win, and they said so right up until the moment he officially lost FL and OH. And this was even though McCain had clearly already given up, and was fucking around on Saturday Night Live 3 days before the election.
Yet you're fine with polls that have Obama losing by 5 points in places where Obama has been winning the entire election.
You can do better.
The overseas gambling sites would have to be in on it too
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Why are the nowcast and Nov. 6 forecast still 2 percentage points apart? I mean, it's only 3 days.
Whitey/blonde cheerleader sex tape. They'll match up in another day or so, watch.
Brandy flip.
Sabato occasionally straddles the boundary between hack and political scientist. I find their classifications slightly incongruous. Regardless, as close as the race appears, they even admit Obama's the favorite in Ohio.
http://votamatic.org/can-we-trust-the-polls/
"What would systemic polling failure look like? In this case, it would mean that not only are some of the polls overstating Obamas level of support; but that most or even all of the polls have been consistently biased in Obamas favor. If this is happening, well have no way to know until Election Day. (Of course, its just as likely that the polls are systematically underestimating Obamas vote share, but then Democrats have even less to be worried about.)
A failure of this magnitude would be major news. It would also be a break with recent history. In 2000, 2004, and 2008, presidential polls conducted just before Election Day were highly accurate, according to studies by Michael Traugott here and here; Pickup and Johnston; and Costas Panagopoulos. My own model in 2008 produced state-level forecasts based on the polls that were accurate to within 1.4% on Election Day, and 0.4% in the most competitive states."
http://votamatic.org/another-look-at-survey-bias/
"A relatively small number of survey firms have conducted a majority of the state polls, and therefore have a larger influence on the trends and forecasts generated by my model. Nobody disputes that there have been evident, systematic differences in the results of these major firms: some leaning more pro-Romney, others leaning more pro-Obama. As I said at the outset, well know on Election Day whos right and wrong."
"What would systemic polling failure look like? In this case, it would mean that not only are some of the polls overstating Obamas level of support; but that most or even all of the polls have been consistently biased in Obamas favor. If this is happening, well have no way to know until Election Day. (Of course, its just as likely that the polls are systematically underestimating Obamas vote share, but then Democrats have even less to be worried about.)
A failure of this magnitude would be major news. It would also be a break with recent history. In 2000, 2004, and 2008, presidential polls conducted just before Election Day were highly accurate, according to studies by Michael Traugott here and here; Pickup and Johnston; and Costas Panagopoulos. My own model in 2008 produced state-level forecasts based on the polls that were accurate to within 1.4% on Election Day, and 0.4% in the most competitive states."
http://votamatic.org/another-look-at-survey-bias/
"A relatively small number of survey firms have conducted a majority of the state polls, and therefore have a larger influence on the trends and forecasts generated by my model. Nobody disputes that there have been evident, systematic differences in the results of these major firms: some leaning more pro-Romney, others leaning more pro-Obama. As I said at the outset, well know on Election Day whos right and wrong."
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Florida really is just a toss up due to the fact that unlike every other state, its utterly inconsistent in the polls. I've never once assigned FL to Obama on any map I've made, so not a big deal.
With Gallup out of the picture the National polls magically have converged with the state polls to make sense.
With Gallup out of the picture the National polls magically have converged with the state polls to make sense.
I gave Obama Florida on my Amirox map, part of me wants to believe.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
The problem with giving Obama Florida is that it makes the rest of the map irrelevant.
Getting rid of all "toss-up" states that I'm absolutely certain will go one way or the other (NV, NH, PA, WI, IA to Obama, NC to Romney), you're left with a swing-state map of FL, OH, VA, and CO.
Obama needs only one of those two win. Romney needs all four.
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bfxr
Obama needs only one of those two win. Romney needs all four.
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bfxr
Has this been posted? Geraldo straight pimpin on Fox and Friends:
http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/11/02/geraldo-rivera-calls-fox-colleague-bolling-a-po/191083
http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/11/02/geraldo-rivera-calls-fox-colleague-bolling-a-po/191083
The fact that polling is a lot better today makes me sad because polls point to the fact that the legalization of weed probably won't happen in Oregon.
I'm getting to an age where I would much rather come home and smoke a joint to relax instead of drink, but as of right now it's still illegal. I have to worry about drug tests and such now as well, because I'm currently looking for a professional job. I don't even smoke often, but I'd like it to be a viable alternative so I don't have to worry about being tested for this shit, especially as I'm job searching. :/
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
The fact that polling is a lot better today makes me sad because polls point to the fact that the legalization of weed probably won't happen in Oregon.
Would be fun if polling was banned for one election so we had no idea who would win. Just think of that.
Ohio's sure to go to Obama. By polling, I'm pretty sure it's even safer than IA and NH.
This race is pretty much a done deal. He might not win each state by as much as he did in '08, so we'll likely have to wait later into the evening for each official call to be made.. but this race is as good as done. It's most likely too late for a "drunk-driving-arrest-type" surprise as well.
For me, the only source of tension left on Election Night is whether the Democrats end-up taking back the House. Well.. that, and for pure vanity reasons I'd like to see he many states I predict correctly.
This race is pretty much a done deal. He might not win each state by as much as he did in '08, so we'll likely have to wait later into the evening for each official call to be made.. but this race is as good as done. It's most likely too late for a "drunk-driving-arrest-type" surprise as well.
For me, the only source of tension left on Election Night is whether the Democrats end-up taking back the House. Well.. that, and for pure vanity reasons I'd like to see he many states I predict correctly.
DataStream
Member
Maddow's PA rant at the top of the show today is pretty great.
Umm, the Trib is an extremely conservative newspaper, they even gloat about it in local ads that I get in the mail trying to get me to sign up (lol). Nothing to see here.
Byakuya769
Member
I like how some people post the slowing recovery number over that timeframe without a hint of irony.
Hobbestetrician
Member
Who are you and what have you done to Diablos?
ErasureAcer
Banned
Romney won't win Florida guys. There's two reasons why, Romney and Ryan; although I'm sure the latter will get much of the blame with his budget when the inevitable happens. Really. Obama won around 9pm central last go around...it'll be the same this time. Obama has the lead amongst likely voters and I'm pretty sure the turnout will be bigger than what's predicted and as we all know Obama is crushing Romney with registered voters. Romney hasn't run a campaign with any ideas but rather just running towards the tea party as he's not Obama and not one concrete detail beyond that. In times of uncertainty...people want a plan, with details!
Obama wins all the swing states(NC to WI and everything inbetween) and gets AZ and GA down to within 5%. Popular vote: 52-46-2(rounded to closest integer)
Senate gets at least 55 seats with AZ, NE, NV being toss-ups.
House sees the Dems gain 22 seats +/- 5 seats.
Bank it.
Obama wins all the swing states(NC to WI and everything inbetween) and gets AZ and GA down to within 5%. Popular vote: 52-46-2(rounded to closest integer)
Senate gets at least 55 seats with AZ, NE, NV being toss-ups.
House sees the Dems gain 22 seats +/- 5 seats.
Bank it.
MasterShotgun
brazen editing lynx
Either "it was rigged" or "too many voters are now on the govt teet" or "{x} number of dead voted in Columbus this year."
Or, as I've heard too many folks (older relatives included) say, "the f--s, n-----s, s---s, and commies have taken over. This country is done for. Why didn't we enforce immigration laws before it was too late? And why do we have early voting? It's called 'Election Day' - not 'Election Month!'"
There's also TONS of Christie-blaming going-on at FreeRepublic right now. They're still positively livid, and blaming him for a lot of Obama's "Sandy/Christy Bump."
Father_Brain
Banned
Sarcasm meter needs repairs
Hobbestetrician
Member
I am happy with myself that it took a bit to think of what s---s stood for.
Byakuya769
Member
Good cop, bad cop - Fox News style.
Holy shit. +1 Geraldo. His finest moment since his breakdown in the aftermath of Katrina when people were stranded.
It's not shits??
Post above mine: I find it ironic your name has drudge in it.
you find it ironic?
The fact that polling is a lot better today makes me sad because polls point to the fact that the legalization of weed probably won't happen in Oregon.
That is some horseshit.
Initiative 502 really needs to pass in WA. I really want to wake up on Wednesday to find that at least one state has legalized marijuana. I hate every fucking idiot Californian who fucked us when it was on the ballot two years ago.
Note to self: I need to see if CSPAN'S has a live stream on its site. That video of the crazy lady rambling on about how evil Obama is reminded me of many of the Washington Journal callers I used to laugh at. I'll have to go back-and-forth between W.J. and Morning Joe.
I'm also veeeery tempted to resurrect the "post here if you think Mitt Romney will win" thread. That was some entertaining shit.
I'm also veeeery tempted to resurrect the "post here if you think Mitt Romney will win" thread. That was some entertaining shit.
thezerofire
Banned
I voted for it. It sucks that all the medical marijuana people voted against it to protect their profits
I won't rest until I can get gay married while smoking a joint.
PhoenixDark
Banned
And another video of a retired general explaining how quickly help arrived, while the Fox host continually attempts to claim there was no response (ie Obama let the people die)
http://mediamatters.org/video/2012/11/02/retired-general-keane-debunks-foxs-outrageous-c/191079
When you accuse the president of the United States of letting US government military personnel die you are crossing a very dangerous line. I understand Fox needs to spin the shit out of this for maximum damage/ratings, but this is disgusting. They're essentially accusing Obama of treason and murder.
The far, fringe right accused JFK of letting US and Cuban military personnel die during the Bay of Pigs but it stayed on the far fringe right. This is being broadcast nearly 24/7 on the most popular television news station in the county. When I read the stuff on twitter coming from the right about this...it sounds an awful lot like these people have a bloodlust for the president, with this "Benghazi-Gate" situation being the final straw, as if they're all demanding "something" be done. The rhetoric is genuinely scary, and will only get more toxic if Obama wins on Tuesday
But where is Obama supposed to find the motivation to send troops into Libya when Michelle doesn't love him anymore?
Pretty painful and saddening to watch, Geraldo is the only one of the four with war correspondence experience and has not only reported from Libya but from Benghazi during conflicts and knows the situation with the militias. Then you have these 3 know it alls belittling him to defend their blatantly obvious fabricated scandal while making a father of one of the killed Americans so paranoid that he believes the Fox bullshit that Obama was watching how his son died and refused any intervention when the army begged to do so.
And why? all because their machine needs Obama dirt to fill their schedule and keep their base angry about nothing. We reached a point where the average Fox viewer is more upset with the President than the terrorists who committed this attack. What a despicable bunch of people to drag this out for 2 months.
I could care less what gets worst on tuesday, republicans should not be rewarded on with winning the presidency by fear mongering.
el retorno
Member
I'm hopping on the blue Florida train.
Thing is, Ohio isn't even a tossup anymore. The only ones left are FL, VA & CO. Even NC is a lot closer than Ohio.
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