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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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P

polyh3dron

Banned
sillymonkey321 said:
When more people die from obama's katrina while he's out being the campaigner in chief, we'll see what happens.
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Instead of taking his sweet time getting FEMA there like Bush did, Obama had FEMA over there ASAP. Obama also has been on the phone with the governors and mayors if the affected areas often and has been making sure they get everything they need that it is in the Federal Government's power to give. Unfortunately people have died in this monumental disaster, and no president could've prevented that.
 
C

CoffeeJanitor

Member
PhoenixDark said:
And another video of a retired general explaining how quickly help arrived, while the Fox host continually attempts to claim there was no response (ie Obama let the people die)
http://mediamatters.org/video/2012/11/02/retired-general-keane-debunks-foxs-outrageous-c/191079

When you accuse the president of the United States of letting US government military personnel die you are crossing a very dangerous line. I understand Fox needs to spin the shit out of this for maximum damage/ratings, but this is disgusting. They're essentially accusing Obama of treason and murder.

The far, fringe right accused JFK of letting US and Cuban military personnel die during the Bay of Pigs but it stayed on the far fringe right. This is being broadcast nearly 24/7 on the most popular television news station in the county. When I read the stuff on twitter coming from the right about this...it sounds an awful lot like these people have a bloodlust for the president, with this "Benghazi-Gate" situation being the final straw, as if they're all demanding "something" be done. The rhetoric is genuinely scary, and will only get more toxic if Obama wins on Tuesday
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Yup. I have a friend who is a pretty smart guy academically, but thinks that Fox is at the same level as any news agency because "everyone is biased!". No surprise that he hates having his "facts" fact checked.
 
P

Puddles

Banned
IGSaint said:
I could care less what gets worst on tuesday, republicans should not be rewarded on with winning the presidency by fear mongering.
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4 years of fear-mongering, obstruction, deception, and the most toxic political environment since the mid-1800s. They should get absolutely blown out, and likely would if not for redistricting.
 
W

watershed

Banned
Fox News has always and will always exist in its own vacuum free from reality, fact, and information. The problem is that people actually buy what they're selling.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
polyh3dron said:
Instead of taking his sweet time getting FEMA there like Bush did, Obama had FEMA over there ASAP. Obama also has been on the phone with the governors and mayors if the affected areas often and has been making sure they get everything they need that it is in the Federal Government's power to give. Unfortunately people have died in this monumental disaster, and no president could've prevented that.
Click to expand...

Yup.

And the beautiful thing about Christie and Bloomberg's behaviours and words earlier this week is that they inoculate Obama against that type of attack. Anyone seeking to tear-down Obama on this basis is going to look silly when you see a Republican governor (the one who gave a keynote speech against Obama, no less) and an independent mayor of NYC.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
HylianTom said:
Yup.

And the beautiful thing about Christie and Bloomberg's behaviours and words earlier this week is that they inoculate Obama against that type of attack. Anyone seeking to tear-down Obama on this basis is going to look silly when you see a Republican governor (the one who gave a keynote speech against Obama, no less) and an independent mayor of NYC.
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Also the response has not stopped, even after Obama re-entered the political race on Thursday. He was talking to Christie earlier on Friday, and authorized fuel to be shipped to NY/NJ from the reserves. He's also authorized a shit ton of equipment to continue the various operations going on right now. It has been a very good response and hasn't reached "political" grounds yet; right now everyone is just doing their job.

I haven't heard much about the food/water situation though. Hopefully that is being handled as well. Likewise I think it would be great if a shit ton of Thanksgiving dinners were donated later this month.
 
P

Puddles

Banned
It's going to be awkward when Christie has to go on the attack against Obama at some point next year, or in 2014 before the midterms.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Puddles said:
It's going to be awkward when Christie has to go on the attack against Obama at some point next year, or in 2014 before the midterms.
Click to expand...

I want to see which side he takes in January when the spirit of good will ends and congressmen start demanding spending cuts to pay for any federal aide.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I want to see which side he takes in January when the spirit of good will ends and congressmen start demanding spending cuts to pay for any federal aide.
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This will happen in the lame duck, and Eric Cantor vs. Chris Christie is going to be is going to be crazy. Though odds are that the recovery and rebuild funds are going to be part of the Grand Bargain that the GOP will enthusiastically reach out for once Romney's lost.
 
H

Hunter S.

Member
Puddles said:
That is some horseshit.

Initiative 502 really needs to pass in WA. I really want to wake up on Wednesday to find that at least one state has legalized marijuana. I hate every fucking idiot Californian who fucked us when it was on the ballot two years ago.
Click to expand...

The nation actually favored legalization by 51% for the first time when it was polled last month. Colorado has been the state with the most in favor for a couple years. With luck Washington, Oregon, and Colorado can be the catalysts of change.
 
S

Smiley90

Stop shitting on my team. Start shitting on my finger.
Hunter S Thompson said:
The nation actually favored legalization by 51% for the first time when it was polled last month. Colorado has long been the state with the most in favor. With luck Washington, Oregon, and Colorado can be the catalysts of change.
Click to expand...

Cascadia > rest.
 
N

norinrad

Member
Fragamemnon said:
This will happen in the lame duck, and Eric Cantor vs. Chris Christie is going to be is going to be crazy. Though odds are that the recovery and rebuild funds are going to be part of the Grand Bargain that the GOP will enthusiastically reach out for once Romney's lost.
Click to expand...

I thought Cantor was losing?
 
S

Smiley90

Stop shitting on my team. Start shitting on my finger.
Hunter S Thompson said:
In terms of mmj. CO and CA > all.

Lol, I do not even currently use it, but have history of caring.
Click to expand...

image.php
 
I

iamshadowlark

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
And another video of a retired general explaining how quickly help arrived, while the Fox host continually attempts to claim there was no response (ie Obama let the people die)
http://mediamatters.org/video/2012/11/02/retired-general-keane-debunks-foxs-outrageous-c/191079

When you accuse the president of the United States of letting US government military personnel die you are crossing a very dangerous line. I understand Fox needs to spin the shit out of this for maximum damage/ratings, but this is disgusting. They're essentially accusing Obama of treason and murder.

The far, fringe right accused JFK of letting US and Cuban military personnel die during the Bay of Pigs but it stayed on the far fringe right. This is being broadcast nearly 24/7 on the most popular television news station in the county. When I read the stuff on twitter coming from the right about this...it sounds an awful lot like these people have a bloodlust for the president, with this "Benghazi-Gate" situation being the final straw, as if they're all demanding "something" be done. The rhetoric is genuinely scary, and will only get more toxic if Obama wins on Tuesday
Click to expand...

Ha, sigonella is one of my GSUs for the base im stationed at. For what its worth, we had a full unit deployed here completed with A-10s and some other measures that I can't talk about.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
norinrad said:
I thought Cantor was losing?
Click to expand...

VA-7 is super safe. There's no reason to expect his role in the GOP leadership to be diminished, and Boehner will be in a super dangerous spot in the lame duck. One one side he's got a time bomb in the fiscal cliff and sequestration, since the GOP will presumably be operating in a position of dire weakness. On the other hand, if he gives too much away he'll face open revolt for the Speaker position in the next Congress. Cantor's sure to be a huge pain in the ass for him.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Fragamemnon said:
This will happen in the lame duck, and Eric Cantor vs. Chris Christie is going to be is going to be crazy. Though odds are that the recovery and rebuild funds are going to be part of the Grand Bargain that the GOP will enthusiastically reach out for once Romney's lost.
Click to expand...

Obama demands end of high income taxes, republicans refuse while demanding spending cuts for aid...end result is a full extension of the Bush tax cuts and NY/NJ aid paid for with some of the military spending cuts (while most of the sequestration is rescinded). All while the media complains about Obama not being bipartisan enough.

fuck that. I'd pay for it with some of the sequestration money: instead of the full $1 trillion cut to the military, settle for $400b, at least $200b of which would be used for NY/NJ. This of course is assuming republicans refuse to pass a relief bill that is not offset by spending cuts (remember when republicans did that for Katrina? Oh wait).

Then handle the Bush tax cuts separately. If republicans agree to let the higher income taxes expire, give them something in return. If not, let everything expire on the first of January...and attempt to pass a new tax cut for just the middle class with a hopefully smaller GOP congress.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
ErasureAcer said:
Romney won't win Florida guys. There's two reasons why, Romney and Ryan; although I'm sure the latter will get much of the blame with his budget when the inevitable happens. Really. Obama won around 9pm central last go around...it'll be the same this time. Obama has the lead amongst likely voters and I'm pretty sure the turnout will be bigger than what's predicted and as we all know Obama is crushing Romney with registered voters. Romney hasn't run a campaign with any ideas but rather just running towards the tea party as he's not Obama and not one concrete detail beyond that. In times of uncertainty...people want a plan, with details!

Obama wins all the swing states(NC to WI and everything inbetween) and gets AZ and GA down to within 5%. Popular vote: 52-46-2(rounded to closest integer)
Senate gets at least 55 seats with AZ, NE, NV being toss-ups.
House sees the Dems gain 22 seats +/- 5 seats.

Bank it.
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No fucking way I would bank that.
 
A

Averon

Member
Boehner's probably the most sensible and level-headed guy in the GOP leadership atm. But he won't let that sensibility cost him his speakership. He'll entertain some compromise with Obama, but that's all it'll be: entertaining. He'll ultimately do what the tea party faction of his wing wants because keeping them happy keeps him as speaker. This will be especially true in the lame duck session since the tea partiers will be pissed due to Obama re-election and some of their members losing elections. Their tolerance of any sort of deal with Obama will be very, very low.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Weather update for key swing states!
(borrowed from Kos)

Denver, CO: sunny, 0% rain chance
Jacksonville, FL: scattered showers, 50%
Miami, FL: isolated showers, 30%
Tampa Bay. FL: scattered showers, 60%
Des Moines, IA: partly cloudy, 10%
Manchester, NH: sunny, 0%
Las Vegas, NV: sunny, 0%
Cincinnati, OH: sunny, 0%
Cleveland, OH: sunny, 0%
Richmond, VA: mostly cloudy, 20%
Virginia Beach, VA: few showers, 30%
Green Bay, WI: showers, 50%
Milwaukee, WI: few showers, 30%


Not too bad. Couldn't ask for much better, actually. If my mind is torn on Florida, this might sway me.
 
J

Jak140

Member
This is pretty last minute, but just opened an Intrade account. Do you guys think I will have enough time to get verified and do a wire transfer before the election?
 
H

Hazmat

Member
HylianTom said:
Weather update for key swing states!
(borrowed from Kos)

Denver, CO: sunny, 0% rain chance
Jacksonville, FL: scattered showers, 50%
Miami, FL: isolated showers, 30%
Tampa Bay. FL: scattered showers, 60%
Des Moines, IA: partly cloudy, 10%
Manchester, NH: sunny, 0%
Las Vegas, NV: sunny, 0%
Cincinnati, OH: sunny, 0%
Cleveland, OH: sunny, 0%
Richmond, VA: mostly cloudy, 20%
Virginia Beach, VA: few showers, 30%
Green Bay, WI: showers, 50%
Milwaukee, WI: few showers, 30%


Not too bad. Couldn't ask for much better, actually. If my mind is torn on Florida, this might sway me.
Click to expand...

Weather predictions in a thread with the kind of chicken little dipshits that we have? Did you run out of needles to give to the junkies in the industrial areas near where you live?

It's probably gonna rain in Green Bay? Fuck, Romney's gonna win WI by 0.8%.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Hazmat said:
Weather predictions in a thread with the kind of chicken little dipshits that we have? Did you run out of needles to give to the junkies in the industrial areas near where you live?

It's probably gonna rain in Green Bay? Fuck, Romney's gonna win WI by 0.8%.
Click to expand...
Haha.. the chicken littles didn't even cross my mind when I posted this, to be honest. Chik'ns gonna chik'n, regardless. :p

That said, it's a pretty nice forecast. Heavy, day-long downpours might move the needle in Wisconsin or Iowa, but not nearly enough. Now, in an asshair-close state like Florida or North Carolina? That could've made a difference.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
NV Early Voting Update

Official Clark numbers: Dems gained 9,638 voters. Turnout was by far biggest of two weeks -- 48K. With mail tally, lead is just over 70K.
Click to expand...

Obama had 80k in 2008, when he won by 12 points. Washoe the other big country is pretty much dead even, GOP +500 or something. In 2008 Obama had that at +12000.

70k...Obama winning by 4-5 points I say. Romney would pretty much need to lead Washoe Election day by big numbers to have any chance. And NV independents are not breaking for Romney.

2 States in which the EV numbers are bad for Obama compared to 2008:
CO
VA
 
A

AniHawk

Member
HylianTom said:
Ohio's sure to go to Obama. By polling, I'm pretty sure it's even safer than IA and NH.

This race is pretty much a done deal. He might not win each state by as much as he did in '08, so we'll likely have to wait later into the evening for each official call to be made.. but this race is as good as done. It's most likely too late for a "drunk-driving-arrest-type" surprise as well.
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i work with a nice person who i believe happens to be a republican, but never brings it up and mostly doesn't seem to care about politics... whose friends have been really 'into' politics and watched the debates and made sure she was there to watch them, and they're voting republican.

i kinda want to go to their election day party.

For me, the only source of tension left on Election Night is whether the Democrats end-up taking back the House. Well.. that, and for pure vanity reasons I'd like to see he many states I predict correctly.
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yeah... i think the districts are way too much in favor of the democrats for that to work. the senate is looking pretty good though, so maybe it could happen? the senate races have been a lot more prominent though. best-case scenario is democrats close the gap enough where boehner can enact some actual compromise with some of the non-true believers.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Whoa, Obama up to 84% on 538 and 86% on the Now-Cast!?

Damn, RAND down to 49-46, +3. actually a bit closer than that. Gotta go up tomorrow and level off!
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Black Mamba said:
Whoa, Obama up to 84% on 538 and 86% on the Now-Cast!?

Damn, RAND down to 49-46, +3. actually a bit closer than that. Gotta go up tomorrow and level off!
Click to expand...

obama's reaching his september peak in the forecast.

also, rand should stay at that difference, but support for both candidates is probably too low. 51-49 or 50.x-48.x is something that will probably happen.
 
H

Hazmat

Member
HylianTom said:
Haha.. the chicken littles didn't even cross my mind when I posted this, to be honest. Chik'ns gonna chik'n, regardless. :p

That said, it's a pretty nice forecast. Heavy, day-long downpours might move the needle in Wisconsin or Iowa, but not nearly enough. Now, in an asshair-close state like Florida or North Carolina? That could've made a difference.
Click to expand...

Indeed. They might argue that liberals would spend the day playing frisbee golf rather than voting if it were nice out.

And shit, unrainy November is one of the nicest possible months for me here in Texas. Maybe I'll get in a back nine rather than voting...

(Romney wins Texas, 1000 years of light)
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Found the internals of that Mason-Dixon Florida poll: http://www.baynews9.com/content/new...n/2012/11/2/florida_decides_poll.html#results

Romney favorables are 53-34. el oh fucking el.

Obama only winning 80% of Dems, +2 on women, and +5 hispanics.

Romney +2 on looking out for the middle class. bwahaha. Also Mitt is +8 on medicare. Every other Florida poll shows the opposite.

M-D has been trash since 2008 though when I think they were the most republican leaning. There's a reason they release so few polls these days.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Black Mamba said:
Found the internals of that Mason-Dixon Florida poll: http://www.baynews9.com/content/new...n/2012/11/2/florida_decides_poll.html#results

Romney favorables are 53-34. el oh fucking el.

Obama only winning 80% of Dems, +2 on women, and +5 hispanics.

Romney +2 on looking out for the middle class. bwahaha. Also Mitt is +8 on medicare. Every other Florida poll shows the opposite.

M-D has been trash since 2008 though when I think they were the most republican leaning. There's a reason they release so few polls these days.
Click to expand...

Would be better to know its internals. Mainly, % of Black, Hispanic, White voters and age group composition. Results like that could easily be because their composition had a higher % of seniors than other pollsters.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Would be better to know its internals. Mainly, % of Black, Hispanic, White voters and age group composition. Results like that could easily be because their composition had a higher % of seniors than other pollsters.
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Yes, I couldn't find a breakdown of the weights. Only the results.

Also: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2954131/posts

LMAO They are going nuts about the Susquehanna poll on Pa. They have no idea they're an GOP pollster group. Oh god. Freerepublic has the potential to be amazing on Tuesday night.
 
P

polyh3dron

Banned
Tune into next week's Real Time With Bill Maher on HBO to see MSNBC's The Cycle hottie S.E. Cupp shed bitter tears about Romney losing the election while being sexually harassed by host Bill Maher
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
What I love is that the freepers went chicken little and tried to rationalize a whole bevy of polls showing Romney losing badly.

One fucking poll from Pa from a worthless pollster and they think they just won the election. Fucking hilarious. The bubble must be beautiful from the inside.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
polyh3dron said:
Tune into next week's Real Time With Bill Maher on HBO to see MSNBC's The Cycle hottie S.E. Cupp shed bitter tears about Romney losing the election while being sexually harassed by host Bill Maher
Click to expand...

My baby's gonna be so adorable when she pouts throughout the episode. <3
 
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