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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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Agreed, I mean he campaigned almost as much as Romney did. if you were unaware he was doing it for Obama you would think he was running for President.
Haha, awesome. Even THE MATH is crumbling at this point.
but seriously guys i am worried about the bradley effect. is america really ready for a black president.
electricpirate
Member
Sam did better than nate in 2008, and was dead on in 2004. His model is simpler, which is better at this point IMO.
SpeedySwaf
Member
Nate was only wrong about Indiana in 2008 (his model had McCain winning), and someone said he was only off by about five seats in 2010. So far, his model's been pretty reliable.
If the election turns out as his model predicts, I wonder if anyone will do a story on it after so many shat on him for one reason or another.
It will be amazing given all this horserace narrative bs to have a complete and total blowout of the EC
Rocket Scientist
Member
I could see the daily show doing a great piece on it if silver turns out to be dead on.
In 2010, I believe people mostly ignored or tried to focus on the good parts (there's a 15% chance the dems will keep the house! Hope is alive!)
But no one attacked him.
metalslimer
Member
Hmmm I WONDER?!
PhoenixDark
Banned
More than a few will. Look him up on DailyKos and you'll see plenty of diary post that boil down to "gotv is more important than Nate's model, lets do this!" The posts are more to combat complacency but it'a not hard to see that argument being used by multiple old school liberals if Nate showed a dem down. Joe Trippi also made a somewhat condescending comment about his model right before the first debate.
I've spent enough time around old liberals to know they're very delusional and untrusting of the Internet. From believing polls on websites are meaningful to thinking Halo subliminally taught kids to be republicans/pro war.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
I believe he has been more accurate than Nate in the past.
Arrowgigantic
Member
Nate undershot the final popular vote by a little over 1% in 2008. Which means Obama got almost 2 million more votes than Nate thought he would.
5 minutes ago
Angelus Errare
Banned
Would, as long as she keeps the glasses on.
RockTurtle
Member
good morning y'all? can anyone provide a nice cup of hopium?
PhoenixDark
Banned
Meaning he could have been quite wrong about a close election...like 2012
metalslimer
Member
smh, this election isn't close.
Sam Wang's map has Obama winning with 332. Silver's map has Obama winning with 303 and a nearly 85% chance of victory. All the hopium I need.
For some Classic Hopium, I'm watching Obama's 2008 New Hampshire primary speech
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fe751kMBwms
cartoon_soldier
Member
DragonSworne
Banned
Is Christie the only viable candidate the Republicans have in 2016? I wonder if Ronmey will run again.
Rubio and Huckabee, but Huckabee may have moved past elected positions and will just stick to being rich.
Angelus Errare
Banned
Romney will run as many times as it takes to get his names in the annals of US history, that's all he cares about.
It will be after Romney wins ohio
cartoon_soldier
Member
Marco Rubio
Chris Christie
Susana Martinez
Rick Santorum
Mitch Daniels
I think will be the top tier candidates in 2016 for GOP.
They are great on twitter. Love when they retreet some of the worst conservative dreck directed at them.
ErasureAcer
Banned
I'd ask for Santorum but that just sounds wrong.
cartoon_soldier
Member
If they are clever, they would go with Susana Martinez
My guess is that they would move back towards center. They almost have to assuming they lose of course.
Yep, totally agreed! Everyone thought they'd modernize themselves after 08 and it didn't happen. No way it's happening now. There's no logic to that party, stop thinking like that. They only double down and shift rightward, do you expect Fox/Rush/and that conservative echo chamber to drift to the center!? Jesus...
Anyone that thinks it's happening especially after they picked yet another moderate RINO is mistaken.
They're only getting crazier from Wednesday onward. It's guarandamnteed.
This is the first time I've run for office, ha ha ha.
heliosRAzi
Banned
I think this is what's going to happen. They are going to go hard right, further into Crazy Town
Nate reading my posts again.
Nate did a whole post yesterday about how you can do the math yourself if you want using the same publically available data. Sam's algorithm is much simpler an has always even downloadable. But all you have to do is look at the actual polls. The rule of thumb is, if one candidate leads in 95% of the polls, they're gonna win. Not exactly wizardry,
Not to mention in the primaries Santorum won Iowa and almost won Ohio, many in the party are going to think they should have stuck with their principles and go further right
For them to realize that they're going to have to moderate to start winning again, they're going to have to nominate a far right nut like Santorum and see them get absolutely destroyed in a general election. If they keep it up by nominating someone like Rubio or Christie, republicans that aren't far right nuts, they will once again think that they weren't conservative enough.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Romney isn't anything. Not a moderate, a liberal, nor a conservative.
He's simply the shell of a corporation running for President trying to masquerade as a human being.
Byakuya769
Member
In law school? No.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I think the funniest thing will be watching Santorum fail. He probably thinks his primary run made him the "next in line" guy republicans typically nominate, but 2012 will be full of formidable opponents this time. If Christie rebuilds NJ he will be well poised to win; the state's unemployment rate will certainly lower as construction jobs open up for the repair process. If he was smart he would lose some weight, not just for his health but to show people he can be disciplined.
I think Rick Perry could be tough too. He'll be healthier and better prepared. I'm still surprised he was so completely rejected by the tea party; really shows the depth of anti immigration in the far right.
Jeb Bush is the best choice IMO but I don't think he'll be trusted enough. He's capable of winning moderates and isn't afraid of the far right, but his immigration views may be toxic to them. Especially if Obama manages to do anything about the issue before 2016; anything he passes will be reviled on the right, but probably moderate enough for Bush to support
I think the Romney of the 90s-early 2000s is more honest and probably more representative of how he really feels about things, but he clearly isn't ashamed to ignore every position he's ever had in order to be more appealing to a different audience.
cartoon_soldier
Member
What helped was that Americans rewarded GOP for their far right move in 2010, whatever the reasons for that. Once you get a wave like that, they were not going to be able to move away from it.
Yep. It gives them something to point at and say that batshit conservatism is viable to voters, even though that type of bullshit is much more difficult to sell in a general election.
What's with the ! in "Forward!" on signs at rallies now? Must explain the surge in polls.
I think "them" is tricky. There was an American Conservative post about this -- every member of a losing coalition thinks the coalition needed to be more like them. So no matter what there will be Santorum and Rand Paul shillers after Romney goes down. But the coalition also has a lot of people who just wan to win, or Romney would never have been nominated -- he represents the unworkable compromise between the two sides. I think a lot depends on the specific events of th nex term.
PhoenixDark
Banned
No way Romney runs again. His entire image is built on being the "only" guy who can win. Being a loser will ruin that image. This is his year, his chance: if he can't win now, it's over. The magnitude of his disappointment will be a marvel; same with his wife's. they truly believe he is entitled to the presidency, and I think there are religious undertones to that.
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