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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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A

ascii42

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I think the funniest thing will be watching Santorum fail. He probably thinks his primary run made him the "next in line" guy republicans typically nominate, but 2012 will be full of formidable opponents this time. If Christie rebuilds NJ he will be well poised to win; the state's unemployment rate will certainly lower as construction jobs open up for the repair process. If he was smart he would lose some weight, not just for his health but to show people he can be disciplined.

I think Rick Perry could be tough too. He'll be healthier and better prepared. I'm still surprised he was so completely rejected by the tea party; really shows the depth of anti immigration in the far right.

Jeb Bush is the best choice IMO but I don't think he'll be trusted enough. He's capable of winning moderates and isn't afraid of the far right, but his immigration views may be toxic to them. Especially if Obama manages to do anything about the issue before 2016; anything he passes will be reviled on the right, but probably moderate enough for Bush to support
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Unfortunately for Jeb, his brother probably destroyed his chances of ever getting elected.

I still like Huntsman, but don't think he'll get enough support.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Obviously Romney's never running again. If he loses this then he'll be a one term governor that likely didn't run for a 2nd term because his favorability sucked, and he didn't actually want the job. He will have lost a senate race, and two presidential races. He'll be a straight up political loser.
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
Has a republican nominee that lost ever given it another shot? I'm pretty sure the GOP doesn't give people second chances when it comes to presidential politics.
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
Playing around with the map, and I think we all know this already, but if Obama wins Ohio early we can go ahead and start celebrating. It would be quite a stretch for him to win Ohio and then not get to 270.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
The Lamonster said:
Has a republican nominee that lost ever given it another shot? I'm pretty sure the GOP doesn't give people second chances when it comes to presidential politics.
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37rn_header_sm.jpg
 
T

Tim-E

Member
If you guys think this election is close:

The craziest, most nail-biting elections in U.S. history

1800: Thomas Jefferson vs. Aaron Burr

In the early days of the republic, electors each cast not one, but two electoral votes for president. Adding to the confusion: There was no such thing as "election day" as we know it now. States voted whenever they felt like it over a period running from April to October. It was a long, drawn-out, and often confusing process.

The republic was just 24 years old when Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr squared off against President John Adams and Charles Pinckney. Yet electors gave both Jefferson and Burr — who were on the same ticket — 73 electoral votes apiece. Adams got 65, and Pinckney 64.

So what do you do in the event of a tie? The Constitution said the House of Representatives would decide. Since Jefferson and Burr got the most electoral votes, the former running mates suddenly became rivals. Voting went on for days, with ballot after ballot. Finally, after 36 ballots, the tie was broken: Thomas Jefferson was declared the president-elect. Aaron Burr was declared vice president. But Jefferson, at this point, didn't trust Burr and gave him nothing to do.

In an unrelated matter, by the way, Burr later shot and killed Alexander Hamilton, the first Treasury secretary, in a duel.

1824: John Quincy Adams vs. Andrew Jackson

Jackson (you know him from the $20 bill) crushed John Quincy Adams, the son of our second president, John Adams, in both the popular vote (41 percent to 31 percent) and in the electoral college (99 to 84). Yet Adams won. How could Adams lose both the popular vote and electoral college yet win the White House?

Unfortunately for "Old Hickory," as Jackson was known, there were two other men on the presidential ballot in 1824: William Crawford of Georgia, who received 41 electoral votes, and Henry Clay of Kentucky, who got 37. Because the four men received a combined 271 electoral votes, Jackson had a plurality but not a majority. He needed 136, but had only 99.

Once again, it was up to the House. Because the 12th amendment to the Constitution said that only the top three presidential candidates could be considered, Clay was out. He threw his support to Adams, and on Feb. 9, 1825, the House gave Adams 138 electoral votes. John Quincy Adams — loser of both the popular vote and, at first, the electoral college — would become the sixth president of the United States.

Now, a story like this can't be told without a little dirt. After all, it's presidential politics. Just before the results of the House election became public, an anonymous letter appeared in a Philadelphia newspaper. Said to be from a member of Congress, it accused Clay of selling his support to Adams if Adams made Clay Secretary of State. Jackson and his supporters were outraged over what they called "the corrupt bargain."

Clay did indeed become Secretary of State in the Adams administration.

This is also a cautionary tale. You've got to be careful what you wish for. John Quincy Adams hated being president. He called it the "four most miserable years of my life." One reason: He was hounded at every turn by Jackson and his supporters. In 1828, both would clash again when Adams sought re-election. This time, Jackson got his revenge, crushing Adams in both the popular vote and winning a majority of the electoral college. Adams later spent 17 years in Congress — the only president to do so after leaving the White House.

1876: Samuel Tilden vs. Rutherford Hayes

It happened again: A candidate lost after getting the most popular votes and the most electoral votes on election day.

In addition to snagging 51 percent of the popular vote, New York Gov. Samuel Tilden (D) won 184 electoral votes — one short of winning the White House. His rival, Ohio Gov. Rutherford B. Hayes (R), won just 48 percent of the vote and 165 electoral votes. Here's the catch: Twenty other electoral votes in several states were disputed and went uncounted. The states: Florida, Louisiana, South Carolina and Oregon.

In all three southern states, it looked like Tilden won the popular vote. But there were allegations of fraud (ink-smeared ballots and bribery) and voter intimidation. Chaos ensued. In Florida, for example, the Republicans said they won by 922 votes. Democrats say they did — by 94 votes.

Meantime, in Oregon, both Democrats and Republicans agreed that Hayes won the state. But when the Democratic governor found out one Republican member of the electoral college was a federal worker (a postmaster) and ineligible to serve, he replaced him with a Democrat. The Republican elector promptly resigned his post office job and said that as a private citizen, he would cast his electoral college vote for Hayes.

All four states submitted two sets of electoral vote counts each to Congress, all with different results. To untangle the mess, Congress set up an electoral commission: five members of the House, five members of the Senate, and five Supreme Court Justices.

By the way, there's absolutely nothing in the Constitution saying this is how an election standoff was to be resolved. After much maneuvering, the commission voted along party lines — 8 to 7 — to award the disputed electoral votes, and the presidency, to Hayes.

But it still wasn't over. Democrats threatened to filibuster the counting of electoral votes to keep Hayes from winning. In 1877 — just weeks before inauguration day — Democrats gave in, with one big string attached. Republicans must agree, they said, to withdraw all federal troops from the South. This was just a decade after the civil war. The GOP agreed — and thus the Compromise of 1877.

And you thought Bush-Gore was messy...
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K

Kusagari

Member
2016 is Jeb's nomination to lose if he decides to run.

He would also basically guarantee Florida for the Republicans since he's still loved down here.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
PhoenixDark said:
Meaning he could have been quite wrong about a close election...like 2012
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He can easily be wrong if there's a systematic problem with the polls. In 2008, polls underestimated the likliehood of democrats turning out for Barack Obama. However, the point of his model is that it increases your confidence in the result because the samples are increasingly large and frequent. When CNN tells you there's a dead heat due to the margin of error, GAF laughs, but that's only because CNN is reporting based on its own polling in a vacuum, not because it ISN'T in the margin of error.

As for who's running GOP in 2016 if Romney loses, probably Christie, Rubio, Huntsman, Zombie Ron Paul.
 
entremet

entremet

Member
Kusagari said:
2016 is Jeb's nomination to lose if he decides to run.

He would also basically guarantee Florida for the Republicans since he's still loved down here.
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Nah. He has too much of the his brother's shit stains on him. The GOP is trying to forget Bush and ilk completely. Did you see the convention?
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
cartoon_soldier said:
oh yea one more to 2016. Paul Ryan

Oh and Rand Paul
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If Ryan loses in 2012 as VP he's as cooked politically as Romney would be.

As for Jeb, the entire Bush name has practically been stricken from the record due to how unfavorably people look back on his administration.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Angry Grimace said:
If Ryan loses in 2012 as VP he's as cooked politically as Romney would be.
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The leaks are coming out of the sinking ship now:

politico said:
People close to Paul Ryan are already talking to the Associated Press about what he might do if he and Mitt Romney lose the election next week....

"They say that if he fails, Ryan's instincts will be to return to the House -- he is running for re-election to his House seat at the same time he's Romney's running mate -- and resume his role as Budget Committee chairman... A return also would make Ryan a leading target for Democrats... That is why some of Ryan's biggest boosters are considering whether it wouldn't be better for Ryan to resign from the House. He could write a book -- 'saving America' is a theme often bandied about -- or teach at a university."
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http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/11/03/whats_next_for_paul_ryan.html

I fully support the idea of Paul Ryan resigning from the House of Representatives to write a book.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
entrement said:
Nah. He has too much of the his brother's shit stains on him. The GOP is trying to forget Bush and ilk completely. Did you see the convention?
Click to expand...

You mean the convention Jeb gave a speech at on the final night?

They're trying to forget Dubya. I see no indication they're trying to forget Jeb.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Kusagari said:
You mean the convention Jeb gave a speech at on the final night?

They're trying to forget Dubya. I see no indication they're trying to forget Jeb.
Click to expand...

I feel fairly certain the GOP is going to mount a serious attempt at running a Hispanic or otherwise ethnic candidate. The GOP is clueless so they probably think running Rubio is a lock.
 
E

ErasureAcer

Banned
MN supreme court looks like I'll be voting for 2 Pawlenty appointees as their challengers are religious extremists. The 3rd Pawlenty appointee up on the ballot is facing off against former MN US Senator Dean Barkley. Guess I'll go for the independent rather than support T-Paw yet again.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2012/11/9_polling_places_in_cuyahoga_c.html

9 polling stations without power
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"If we encounter outages, we have portable generators we could deploy to a limited number of locations and also have flashlight supplies on hand to help deal with that situation," said Jane Platten, director of the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections. "At this point, we are encouraged by reports from the utility companies that they hope all outages will be restored by the end of Monday."

Early Friday, 16 polling stations were blacked out, but seven of them had power restored by late afternoon
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.

A conern but it sounds like this will not impact election day.
 
R

Rocket Scientist

Member
Looking at that interactive infographic on which states candidates need, really shows how important Florida is to Romney. Too bad Obama couldn't get a good lead going there.
 
M

Magni

Member
polyh3dron said:
Tune into next week's Real Time With Bill Maher on HBO to see MSNBC's The Cycle hottie S.E. Cupp shed bitter tears about Romney losing the election while being sexually harassed by host Bill Maher
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I had to Google her.. a young atheist woman who's a Republican? How fucking stupid can you be?

"On July 5, 2012, Cupp said on The Cycle that she "would never vote for an atheist president." When asked to explain, Cupp said she felt that a president must not represent only 10 to 15 percent of the American populace and that faith served as a "check" on presidential power."

Wtf? You wouldn't vote for a president who represents YOU? Wow.

Korey said:
Does anyone know why New Mexico is so blue compared to literally everything around it?
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.
 
S

SteveWinwood

Member
Huntsman is the only one I wouldn't feel terrible about the future of this country if he won. So I hope they go there.

Naturally they won't and will instead shit out some idiot.
 
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