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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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Clinton to be in Raleigh, NC, tomorrow. Perhaps looking to off-set a potential loss in PA?
 

Amir0x

Banned
Why are people so convinced that Hillary would win if she ran?

just think of this:

if Hillary ran in 2016, we'll get to hear an ENTIRE NEW ELECTION CYCLE where the right tries to pretend there was a huge cover up in Libya and that she is to blame for everything with Obama
 

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
I heard you mention that and a few other people say it isn't what it sounded like. Do you have a link to the tossed votes?

It's just 33,000 ballots that were sent out late. But consider that I'm in a "non-shenanigans" state and I just got my absentee ballot yesterday.
 

apana

Member
Romney Flailing

Obama should choose his words better cos Romney is looking for anything to grab onto. This would have been a big media gaffe over the summer

Obama has been horrible this whole election cycle. Lame speech at the convention, lame first debate, can't explain his policies to the american people like Bill Clinton can. He has a great campaign though and that is why he will win.
 
People need to stop worrying about Husted.

The margin is going to be big enough that it's not going to matter. And most of the shit that Husted could do he's done already, with limited success.
 
Romney Flailing

Obama should choose his words better cos Romney is looking for anything to grab onto. This would have been a big media gaffe over the summer

They're trying, for sure. But Romney's flailing in Ohio because of those Jeep/China comments. So it doesn't matter.

And my vote was a little for revenge, I admit. I'm someone who makes barely above minimum wage.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Why are people so convinced that Hillary would win if she ran?

Anecdotal, but almost every single older woman I know - including those with a Republican tilt - is hoping for it to happen. Not only are they hoping, but a good number of them say that they'd donate money or even volunteer. These women are my own little personal focus group, with many of them either leaning Republican or tending to go back-and-forth (Reagan/Clinton/Bush voters), many of them not being politics junkies, but just tuning-in to regular news. Hillary as the nominee would turn their enthusiasm level to be more similar to, say, ours.

That she came so close in 2008 was a real eye-opener, a heart breaker. Obama may have a gender gap, but Hillary would most likely make that look absolutely piddly. I think the map would blow wide open in favor of the Democrats if she were to run, and the GOP candidate would end-up being a sacrificial lamb.

If the recovery continues and job creation picks-up a bit over the next four years, the presidency is hers if she wants it. Bill has a few years to work on her. I suspect he wants back into the White House as well.
 

Cloudy

Banned
Obama has been horrible this whole election cycle. Lame speech at the convention, lame first debate, can't explain his policies to the american people like Bill Clinton can. He has a great campaign though and that is why he will win.

- His convention speech wasn't lame
- His first debate was him trying to play it safe. I don't think it was as bad as the media hype made it out to be
- He can explain his policies but Clinton can get away with blaming Bush and the GOP. He can't
- Yes, he has a great campaign. I'm sure he has nothing to do with it!

I'm starting to see this narrative about Obama being "lucky" come back. It disappeared after the first debate but now that Obama looks like he might win, Romney is suddenly a pathetic candidate again
 

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
Why are people so convinced that Hillary would win if she ran?

Because the electorate is significantly becoming more leftist. And hopefully I'm wrong, but I think a lot of the irrational anti-Obama sentiment is based on racism. With Hillary you no longer have that. The economy will most likely rebound and boom once Europe is sorted out and businesses start spending money again. She'll be able to run both on that and on Bill Clinton's 90s economy.
 
Because the electorate is significantly becoming more leftist. And hopefully I'm wrong, but I think a lot of the irrational anti-Obama sentiment is based on racism. With Hillary you no longer have that. The economy will most likely rebound and boom once Europe is sorted out and businesses start spending money again. She'll be able to run both on that and on Bill Clinton's 90s economy.

Seriously, assuming there's no catastrophic event like the Iraq war or 9/11, it's FULLY possible for the Dems to have the White House till 2024.
 

Owzers

Member
They're trying, for sure. But Romney's flailing in Ohio because of those Jeep/China comments. So it doesn't matter.

And my vote was a little for revenge, I admit. I'm someone who makes barely above minimum wage.

This, coupled with smug hypocrisy of Romney knowing many of his "supporters" are voting against Obama out of hate.

Voting for revenge? The man lied in Ohio and made some people think they were about to lose their job as a FACT. Needs more than revenge, everyone should get a free punch.

Biden about to have a rally in a high school an audience that looks to consist of 50 people Xo.
 

Trurl

Banned
Is Hillary a good administrator? Some people have attributed her failed 2008 campaign to the way she delegated duties.
 
Volunteers are being asked to work at Ohio polls "until needed" on election day. They are saying the malfunctions will likely delay election results for weeks. WTF.
 

Puddles

Banned
My hopium levels dropped a bit. I just found out about http://baseballcrank.com/

He's basically making the unskewedpolls.com argument, but he sounds a whole lot more convincing when he does it.

The centerpiece of my thesis (discussed here and here) that Mitt Romney will win Tuesday's election is his consistently strong showing among independent voters (ie, voters who identify as neither Republicans nor Democrats) across the majority of national and state polls, pretty much regardless of whether those are polls he's winning or losing. On that score, I believe the polls; if they're wrong about the independent vote, my analysis is essentially irrelevant. But if they're right, I believe I'll be proven right. If Romney goes on to win independents nationally by 5+ points and carry independents by more than a few points in states like Ohio and Wisconsin, he will win.

Obama can only overcome that kind of deficit among independents by decisively winning the partisan turnout battle - indeed, the polls that show him winning nationally or on a state-by-state basis do so almost uniformly by projecting a decisive advantage in Democratic turnout - but when you look for evidence outside of the polling samples themselves of that Democratic turnout advantage, you won't find it.

There are two main arguments currently circulating for why Obama will win in spite of these factors. Both are premised upon the notion that the Obama-favoring polls are correctly projecting an electorate on the order of 2008's D+7 (D 39/R 32/I 29) electorate, in which Obama's turnout advantage will outweigh his loss of independent voters. I dealt on Wednesday with the first of those: Nate Silver's polling model, which simply assumes that state-level polls are correctly projecting the turnout, on the theory that state polling averages have historically been trustworthy.

Ugh.
 

Darkgran

Member
Just wanted to point out that I have never panicked and have always said Obama is going to win.

So I will just say it again one last time.

Obama IS GOING TO WIN.
 

DopeyFish

Not bitter, just unsweetened
Volunteers are being asked to work at Ohio polls "until needed" on election day. They are saying the malfunctions will likely delay election results for weeks. WTF.

Weeks? Sounds very fucking fishy considering it wasn't weeks that the malfunction occurred for
 

Mgoblue201

Won't stop picking the right nation
This is the first time I can remember a Democrat being "anointed" this far in advance, assuming that Clinton runs. The sense of inevitability, combined with her immense recognition and popularity, would definitely help her. Hopefully Obama's popularity peaks just as he's leaving office. That would coincide perfectly with Clinton's 2016 campaign. All these factors would probably mean that there won't be a repeat of 2000, the last time a two term Democrat left office.
 
2016 will be interesting for the Dems.

Hillary would obviously be the frontrunner, should she choose to run, but I have a feeling Andrew Cuomo might consider a 2016 run, and he could give her a really good challenge.

Volunteers are being asked to work at Ohio polls "until needed" on election day. They are saying the malfunctions will likely delay election results for weeks. WTF.

It's going to be fine.

Honestly, everyone is going to be disappointed with how unexciting Ohio will end up being on Tuesday night.
 

Owzers

Member
My hopium levels dropped a bit. I just found out about http://baseballcrank.com/

He's basically making the unskewedpolls.com argument, but he sounds a whole lot more convincing when he does it.



Ugh.

I'm in the camp that firmly believes that "independents" consist of a lot of tea party people and that's why Romney is still losing overall in polls despite being up in independents. Every time i hear a tea party person on tv, they immediately say they aren't for either party. Of course, they hate Obama too....
 

ivysaur12

Banned
To cross the streams of Poli-GAF and TV-GAF...

Last night, Last Man Standing (a thoroughly mediocre sitcom) did an episode where the Tim Allen's character (a Romney supporter) and his oldest daughter (an Obama one) fought to win the vote of the middle daughter. She eventually chose Obama.

Now, Last Man Standing does not do well on the coasts. It's like an opposite of Happy Endings and Bitch in Apt 23. It only does well in the midwest with low-income families that are predominately conservative.

You should all go to their Facebook page today:

https://www.facebook.com/LastManStandingABC?fref=ts


"Obamas Trojan Horse" After watching Tim Allen, yesterday, TRY TO DISPLAY CONSERVATIVE THOUGHTS...

--- IT WAS THE WORSE DISPLAY OF STUPIDITY I HAVE EVER SEEN..

--- A MAN WHO HIS FAMILY HAD NO RESPECT FOR. "IGNORENTLY DISPLAYED" HIS SUPPORT FOR THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES... Mitt Romney...
---- and I thought his stupidity was a put on ??? well......... now we know different !!!
--...- But to the facts..... The only thing they really got across was Health care should be a right !!!

Is that true???

--- If u make everything "a right" that which we need .........
Here is what will happen !!!
--- Our food is a right ......... our Housing is a right ............. our clothes, is a right ........... everyone needs a car, so having a car is a right...(thus the bailout)..... our furniture is a right........... gas is a right.......... jobs is a right, under Groverment controll is the only way that can happen..............is a right !!!
THE ONLY WAY THAT CAN BE, IS IF WE R TAXED 100%

--- THAT"S COMMUNIST RUSSISA AND GERMANY AND CHINA..... WE WILL BE SALING OUT TO OBAMA AND A COMMUNIST WAY OF LIFE...

---- U SAY, WELL MAYBE THATS THE WAY IT SHOULD BE ..???

--- REALLY" !! THE ONLY WAY THAT CAN WORK IS IF THE ONE AT THE TOP IS PERFECT.
Has no corruption..... WHERE, ARE U GONNA FIND A PERSON LIKE THAT ???
--- WHAT HAPPENS IS , The guy at the top get's everything and "we the people" get nothing ........
Check out the life of the people in Russia.....

--- THEY R POVERTY STRICTIAN !!! AND HIS CRONIES GET GOODIES, EVERYONE ELSE SUFFERS.

--- IF U THINK THE AMERICAN WAY OF LIFE IS BAD JUST WAIT UNTILL OBAMA WAY REALLY SETS IN...
(a talk back I had this morning.....)
--- Steve Farmer; Reagan inherited a worse aconomy than Obama and NOT once did he accuse Carter..... why don't u shift ur mind into "FIX" instead of "blame" so u can see whats going on.. The first 4 years of Reagan the aconomy improved 14.2%..... I'm embarassed for u as well..... Zack.......... ur saling our country out to a communist way of life... Which will not work !!! The last 4 years are proof of that..
--- In the last 4 years I've lost my cable, my insurance, my Tax refund, my house phone..... and I still have the same job...
Get ur head out of Obamas rear and wake up. Zack Bowman.
and vote for Romany who has enough sense to fix this mess.... eq.

There r millions of people upset now and should be.... FOLKS LOOK AT HOW WE FIXED THIS BEFORE, IT IS THE ONLY WAY TO DO IT..... OBAMA"S WAY WILL ONLY LEAD TO WORSE THINGS....

--- The American way is not perfect but "it's the best way" and
IF WE "LEARN TO WORK TOGETHER"..... WE CAN MAKE IT !!!

Pastor; Steve Farmer ff

P.S. Tim; I not letting my kids watch ur show anymore.. until they r old enought to know a communist when they see one.

It's a bad episode of television. Don't watch it. But I found the outrage hilarious.
 

Trurl

Banned
2016 will be interesting for the Dems.

Hillary would obviously be the frontrunner, should she choose to run, but I have a feeling Andrew Cuomo might consider a 2016 run, and he could give her a really good challenge.

America isn't ready for an Italian president.
 

Jackson50

Member
Romney Flailing

Obama should choose his words better cos Romney is looking for anything to grab onto. This would have been a big media gaffe over the summer
Vengeance is ours saith Obama.

The CTC recently published an article detailing the growth of the Boko Haram insurgency in Northern Nigeria and its implications for the region. Previously, cooperation between the various groups established in the region had been limited. But with the influx of weapons from Libya and the deterioration of Northern Mali, collaboration between the groups seem to be expanding as they seek to increase their scope and capabilities. Not only is Boko Haram a threat in Northern Nigeria, but AQIM extends throughout the region. And with Ansar Dine and the MOJWA consolidating control in Northern Mali, the groups now possess a clear conduit for the transit of supplies and people throughout the region. Further, with weak governments in Niger and Chad, the opportunity for cooperation with groups from the Arabian Peninsula is a distinct possibility. Eventually, the region could become the locus for Muslim transnational terrorist networks.

The pertinent question is how to mitigate the problem. And with weak or incompetent regional governments, our options are limited. First, we cannot rely on our military, whether drone strikes or special operations, to solve the problem. Rather, given the grievances of certain ethnic groups and the already oppressive response by the Nigerian government, a militant response from the U.S. would exacerbate the problem. We should be more judicious and selective than we have been in Pakistan or Yemen when applying force. A multilateral AU force has been approved to dislodge the militants in Mali. Consequently, the groups are participating in peace talks. I'm rather pessimistic about the negotiations. And AU operations are not renowned for their efficiency and effectiveness. Nevertheless, a regional approach is essential given the scope of the problem.

The most important variable is the response of the Nigerian government. Unlike their neighbors, they possess the capabilities to defeat Boko Haram and provide a modicum of stability. But their response has been obtusely severe and counterproductive. Security forces have committed extrajudicial attacks against suspected militants in addition to civilians. Without a reduction in harsh, oppressive policies, the problem will persist.
 
The assumption that party IDs from state polls are likely accurate because they have been historically is perfectly valid. Of course it's not guaranteed but the burden is on explaining why it would be different this year.
 

Cloudy

Banned
Link? I haven't seen any attacks outside of Hannity/Rush

Gulliani called into Fox just now. Hammering Obama on Sandy response and comparing it to Katrina. Saying Obama went right back to campaigning while people are suffering. Falsely saying there's no FEMA response etc. Just desperate
 
Gulliani called into Fox just now. Hammering Obama on Sandy response and comparing it to Katrina. Saying Obama went right back to campaigning while people are suffering. Falsely saying there's no FEMA response etc. Just desperate

He went so far as to say Obama should resign. But who gives a fuck about Jules these days anyway.
 

Jadedx

Banned
Just wanted to point out that I have never panicked and have always said Obama is going to win.

So I will just say it again one last time.

Obama IS GOING TO WIN.

Shhh!!! Don't tell democrats that, they might not vote. Tell them it's close but looks good for Obama.
 
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