That, and "the polls are assuming the 2008 electorate" is, as far as I know, just false. Ras is the only one with any sort of party weighting. There's some weighting by ethnicity, I think, but since polling methodology hasn't changed very much since 2008 that can be validated by comparing how Hispanics, say, were responding to pollsters in 2008 with how they're responding now.
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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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That, and "the polls are assuming the 2008 electorate" is, as far as I know, just false. Ras is the only one with any sort of party weighting. There's some weighting by ethnicity, I think, but since polling methodology hasn't changed very much since 2008 that can be validated by comparing how Hispanics, say, were responding to pollsters in 2008 with how they're responding now.
Has this been posted?
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blo...ristie-is-tearing-me-apart.html#ixzz2B7uzByTu
This is comedy gold. You could seriously mistake it for an Onion article. I am loling so hard.
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blo...ristie-is-tearing-me-apart.html#ixzz2B7uzByTu
Hahahahahaha, what a little girl Mitt is.
This is comedy gold. You could seriously mistake it for an Onion article. I am loling so hard.
What are you basing this on, or are you just (obviously) pulling it out of your ass? You can sit there and hope that Romney wins Ohio all you want, but it sure as fuck doesn't "look" good for him at all.
gutter_trash
Banned
not to mention the growing amount of people with no land lines who are cell phone only
Aaron Strife
Banned
Fanfic incoming.
He's basing it on his inner desire to see Romney win so he can say he was right both about (1) Obama losing and (2) Hillary should have been the nominee.RDreamer said:
PhoenixDark
Banned
electricpirate
Member
Its satire. Andy borowitz is a liberal comedian.
Well I was saying earlier about how they are only going to bring generators to republican districts. Pretty obvious they are well on their way to stealing the election, what with this and the stealing of 33K Obama votes.
Comedy gold indeed.
Blue compared to the polling average. It's definitely possible that there's a small systematic bias in most polls (and thus in the average) towards the Republicans because of cell phones, English-only interviews, likely voter screens not considering early voting, etc.
Genuine question, though: can anybody actually think of a systematic problem the polls might have that would cause them to be tilted towards Democrats and away from Republicans across the board? And not the bullshit 2008 turnout thing either -- if Romney wins, there basically has to be some reason why the polls are all wrong. Are there any actual possible things that suggest themselves?
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
The best I can do is that likely voter screens can be finicky. Especially with restrictions on early voting relative to previous years in several important states, it may matter which side has more people willing to stand in line for a few hours on Tuesday. The effort required to vote is different this year than previously such that an historically-accurate test for what constitutes a likely voter could be systematically biased this time around.
That and Republican governors and secretaries of state in important states could mess with the process, but that's not really a polling issue.
I can't think of anything outside the voter suppression possibility, that people would come to the polls wanting to vote but then couldn't. Other than that I really don't see much of a possibility of them missing a large Republican block through systematic errors and getting it wrong in that direction.
teruterubozu
Member
Just wait until the exit poll mindfuck starts.
The Librarian
Banned
Once this election is called, one of the first things I do – besides first calling out Diablos, CS, Cheebs, and PD (oh, most especially PD) – will be to make fun of Gallup.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Don't forget Facebook rage posts!
I'm calling out all the conservative assholes on my FB feed.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I somehow managed to avoid all exit polling last time.
el retorno
Member
Diablos seems like he's the only one actually concerned others are just purely trolling
Bookmarking this post in case the reverse happens!
rohlfinator
Member
Just got back from early voting, +1 for Obama in Iowa. The crowd today definitely skewed a lot younger than when I've voted on election day.
Crossing my fingers that we can get Steve "I've never heard of anyone getting pregnant from statutory rape" King out of office.
My understanding is that most of them weight by things like ethnicity, age, sex, etc to cover gaps in their polling, but they almost never weight by party affiliation since it can be so volatile and subjective.
Crossing my fingers that we can get Steve "I've never heard of anyone getting pregnant from statutory rape" King out of office.
My understanding is that most of them weight by things like ethnicity, age, sex, etc to cover gaps in their polling, but they almost never weight by party affiliation since it can be so volatile and subjective.
Wolf Blitzer and exit polls will lead me to suicide.
Thankfully I have rapture ready to keep me alive.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Too bad your early vote counts for nothing ;( Just ask PD.
TacticalFox88
Banned
No, Diablos WAS concerned, but he's likely trolling now.
The Librarian
Banned
Do what you feel you have to, sweetheart.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Remember the NH primary? That's what you remind me of
Keep the hope alive. Romney way win yet.
No.Can't we just celebrate Obama's win in an election that is more important than 2008 instead?
cartoon_soldier
Member
Can't we just celebrate Obama's win in an election that is more important than 2008 instead?
rohlfinator
Member
Damn, knew I should have waited. Oh well, at least I picked up lunch so my trip wasn't entirely wasted.
The Librarian
Banned
PD, crying about the results afterwards is not going to help Romney.
this is getting straight dirty
I am so confused. You are aware this is a comedy piece right? The writer is a comedian.
I think that's true. My point was that this type of weighting isn't the same as assuming the 2008 electorate. I imagine what goes on is that a pollster sees that some group is showing up in polls as making up 20% of likely voters, but was 30% of voters in the 2008 election, and in 2008 polls showed up as 15% of likely voters. So then they might adjust the result and predict that the group will make up 40% of the 2012 electorate. But that wouldn't be assuming the 2008 electorate; that's adjusting the 2012 estimate based on the known bias in 2008 polling.
RustyNails
Member
So do you guys think Michelle will start loving her husband when he wins? It's his lifelong dream which will be fulfilled, ever since he started his political career.
I'm pretty sure that's not what they do. Pollsters don't estimate turnout beforehand. How they poll, at least as far as I know, is by polling the entire electorate based on the census. They get the demographics right based on the census, not on who they think will vote and how much. Then they use a likely voter screen of questions to tell who will vote. So, if the polls now are saying the group will make up 20% of the electorate that's not because they looked at previous years and adjusted something. That just means that group is saying they will vote or are very likely to vote.
It's worth noting that, while the Romney campaign is claiming that they're confident and saying that their internal polls show Romney winning everywhere, they certainly aren't ACTING like a campaign that is confident of victory. If Romney was leading slightly in Ohio, he wouldn't be in Pennslvania and he wouldn't have cut the Jeep ad or the revenge ad; if Romney was confident in Florida, he wouldn't have put out the Hispanic-targeting socialism ad; if Romney were confident his message were working he wouldn't be debuting both Libya and protection-racket politics on the stump in the last few days, etc. Romney's behaving exactly as though his internals show him losing unless a miracle happens. Obama, similarly, is behaving exactly like a campaign that just needs to cover an existing lead for three more days.
amazing
Amen, both me and my wife voted to get that jackass out of office
TacticalFox88
Banned
Man, so fucking awesome. Huge bitchslap to the racists
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