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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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Z

zargle

Member
Should I vote for the House Dem candidate in Ohio 2nd? The guy who has never made a public appearance or made any public statement? I fear I would be voting for a serial killer, but on the other hand, hey I voted for a serial killer, that's an interesting story for the kids.

RustyNails said:
So do you guys think Michelle will start loving her husband when he wins? It's his lifelong dream which will be fulfilled, ever since he started his political career.
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I think shell be happy because he wont have to run for anything ever again and that stress will be taken away from her life.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
pigeon said:
It's worth noting that, while the Romney campaign is claiming that they're confident and saying that their internal polls show Romney winning everywhere, they certainly aren't ACTING like a campaign that is confident of victory. If Romney was leading slightly in Ohio, he wouldn't be in Pennslvania and he wouldn't have cut the Jeep ad or the revenge ad; if Romney was confident in Florida, he wouldn't have put out the Hispanic-targeting socialism ad; if Romney were confident his message were working he wouldn't be debuting both Libya and protection-racket politics on the stump in the last few days, etc. Romney's behaving exactly as though his internals show him losing unless a miracle happens. Obama, similarly, is behaving exactly like a campaign that just needs to cover an existing lead for three more days.
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Exactly. And McCain did it similarly. GOP kept saying McCain had momentum, turnout models were wrong, Bradley effect, etc all while he went off the rails.

Same story.

Nate just had a post on it saying Obama isn't 100% to win because it estimates 16% chance of bias. I think he's simplifying it as some of that 16% is just randomness and moe but he does take this error into account.

It also explains the difference between him and the other models like wang over 95%. They don't believe the bias is possible.
 
A

andthebeatgoeson

Junior Member
HylianTom said:
Anecdotal, but almost every single older woman I know - including those with a Republican tilt - is hoping for it to happen. Not only are they hoping, but a good number of them say that they'd donate money or even volunteer. These women are my own little personal focus group, with many of them either leaning Republican or tending to go back-and-forth (Reagan/Clinton/Bush voters), many of them not being politics junkies, but just tuning-in to regular news. Hillary as the nominee would turn their enthusiasm level to be more similar to, say, ours.

That she came so close in 2008 was a real eye-opener, a heart breaker. Obama may have a gender gap, but Hillary would most likely make that look absolutely piddly. I think the map would blow wide open in favor of the Democrats if she were to run, and the GOP candidate would end-up being a sacrificial lamb.

If the recovery continues and job creation picks-up a bit over the next four years, the presidency is hers if she wants it. Bill has a few years to work on her. I suspect he wants back into the White House as well.
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Bill as the First Man. MAKE THIS HAPPEN! Or First Gentleman! He could replace the Dos Equis spokesman and really pull it off.

Hill could do it because she would continue making inroads with Hispanics, tie up the woman and black vote with ease and hit the independents as a former Secretary of State who helped get Bin Laden. Her weakness was that she stuck with Bill and didn't remind people of Jim Crow, MLK jr and the history of 2008. Remember those Obama crowds? But she'll be a ton better and will have Obama and Billy boy behind her. It's a fuckin juggernaut. If we come out of this recession looking good, maybe an Iran conflict is the only thing standing in her way. And she has the experience with governing. She just may not be as exciting.

Loudninja said:
People always something is going to be big but it never is.
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I really thought Romneyhood and Romnesia should have overtaken FlipFlopper but dat flip flop is just too powerful of a phrase.
 
P

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
In line to vote right now. 1:40 wait time according to the poll worker. :(

And republicans want to get rid of early voting and reduce the hours on Election Day. Wow.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
B

bananas

Banned
Just reposting this so everybody knows. Everybody can see that I never wavered. I have always stood tall against the chicken littles.

09-10-2012, 12:37 AM:
bananas said:
I'm standing by my earlier claim of Obama winning every state he did in 2008 except Indiana.
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10-22-2012, 08:26 PM:
bananas said:
This combined with the NC tweet has me feeling a little better about my prediction from a month and a half ago.

Obama will win every state from 2008 except Indiana.

Just watch.
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bananas said:
B-Dubs said:
That really would be bananas considering the past few weeks.
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Never said they would be huge wins. But a win's a win. And the numbers are favoring 'Bams in most swing states, and the ones where Romney has a slight lead can be overcome with a great ground game and GOTV campaign.

I have no doubt. Call me the anti-Diablos.
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T

TacticalFox88

Banned
bananas said:
Just reposting this so everybody knows. Everybody can see that I never wavered. I have always stood tall against the chicken littles.

09-10-2012, 12:37 AM:


10-22-2012, 08:26 PM:
Click to expand...

I'm cautiously optimistic, but I still say he'll win everything but NC and Florida just to be safe.

But if he did win like his 2008 margins LOL!
 
R

rohlfinator

Member
markatisu said:
Amen, both me and my wife voted to get that jackass out of office
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*high five*

I'm going to be pissed if we get stuck with him due to the redistricting, but it might be worth the risk to have a better chance of getting him out. I'm almost looking forward to that more than an Obama win.
 
B

bananas

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Come on
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66FYB.gif
 
Z

Zzoram

Member
Slate has an article saying Christie and Ryan were the top 2 choices for VP and that Romney was leaning Christie but switched to Ryan last minute and didn't tell Christie in advance.

That could explain why Christie got off the Romney train.
 
D

Delusibeta

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Come on
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I'm also assuming that all nine states are 50-50, which they aren't. Bluntly, if Florida (where Romney has to literally win all eight of the remaining states to win) or Ohio (where Romney drops to 11 routes to victory out of 250, or 4.3%) goes in favour of Obama, I'll be happy to declare GG and go to bed knowing Obama has been re-elected. Of course, if both goes to Obama, then everything else is largely academic.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
bananas said:
Just reposting this so everybody knows. Everybody can see that I never wavered. I have always stood tall against the chicken littles.

09-10-2012, 12:37 AM:


10-22-2012, 08:26 PM:
Click to expand...
My "official" prediction gives Obama 332 EVs to Romney's 206, every state in 2008 besides Indiana and North Carolina. However, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Obama did win NC - it's not the Safe R state everyone seems to have it pegged as.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Wanted to post a more serious reply to this:
PhoenixDark said:
Remember the NH primary? That's what you remind me of
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Let's all be clear on one thing here, PD: If Romney wins on Tuesday, making everyone else wrong and you right, it won't be because you had any sort of special insight or what have you. You like to run contrary to opinions here – that's part of your schtick – and this'll only be a case of you being right by chance. You're not basing your prediction off tangible numbers or evidence.

Same goes for CS and Diablos. Should Romney win, their first inclination will probably be to run in here and say, "Told you guys!" or some variation thereof. That's not the case. The two worry about everything, and this too – like you – would be just a case of being right by chance, not something the rest of us didn't see coming.

The rest of us – backed up by evidence and poll numbers – are looking at an Obama win. You know, evidence. You just spout nonsense as reasoning because you gotta keep up your character.

And in before a "lol, getting worried?" type of response from you.

Edit: Oh wow. That came off more serious than I intended. lol.
 
G

GregLombardi

Member
So any guesses on what CNN's new ridiculous election technology will be this year? And will it be streamed via the internet or just on TV?

My personal vote is a rotating set of "ways to win" maps for each candidate that get eliminated as the night goes on based on states that are called. I bet you this is what they're going to do.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
GregLombardi said:
So any guesses on what CNN's new ridiculous election technology will be this year? And will it be streamed via the internet or just on TV?

My personal vote is a rotating set of "ways to win" maps for each candidate that get eliminated as the night goes on based on states that are called. I bet you this is what they're going to do.
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Teleportation. It's the only way to go further into absurdity.
 
M

Marvie_3

Banned
GregLombardi said:
So any guesses on what CNN's new ridiculous election technology will be this year? And will it be streamed via the internet or just on TV?

My personal vote is a rotating set of "ways to win" maps for each candidate that get eliminated as the night goes on based on states that are called. I bet you this is what they're going to do.
Click to expand...

They'll have another panel of undecided voters talking about the final results.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
With three days to go, Romney calls his campaign a ‘movement’
PORTSMOUTH, N.H.—Mitt Romney kicked off a whirlwind weekend of campaigning across the country in the state where he launched his bid for the presidency, expressing confidence that he will win the election.
"New Hampshire won me the Republican nomination, and New Hampshire is going to get me to the White House," the Republican nominee said at the first of four scheduled rallies on Saturday.

Speaking to more than 1,000 voters here at a chilly airport rally, Romney sounded a more retrospective note heading into the final weekend of the campaign.

"I've watched over the last few months as our campaign has gone from a start to a movement. It's not just the size of the crowds. It's the conviction and compassion in the hearts of the people," Romney said. "It's made me strive to be more worthy of the support I have received across the country and to campaign as I would govern, to speak for the aspirations of all Americans, not just some Americans."
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http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/...ls-campaign-movement-135239106--election.html
 
E

explodet

Member
GregLombardi said:
So any guesses on what CNN's new ridiculous election technology will be this year? And will it be streamed via the internet or just on TV?
Click to expand...
Holographic Tupac is gonna bust a cap in holographic Fareed Zakaria's ass. And then the android Anderson Cooper is going to battle a telepathic Soledad O'Brien.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Zzoram said:
Slate has an article saying Christie and Ryan were the top 2 choices for VP and that Romney was leaning Christie but switched to Ryan last minute and didn't tell Christie in advance.

That could explain why Christie got off the Romney train.
Click to expand...

This is just desperation from Team Romney to try to get some votes from weak Dems who like Christie
 
T

The Abominable Snowman

Member
This Romney ad has been playing in Virginia where I live for the last couple of days at least. It seems to be all over today, even during children's cartoons.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NlFHrLeeJIU

Basically, Bill's Barbecue has been struggling for a while. It thretened to close some time ago before a McCain visit in 2007, where they found an investor to keep them afloat. Edit: The McCain Visit and the investor are unrelated) It finally caved a couple months ago, and Romney took no time in politicizing its closing due to competition, citing it as Obama's Economy.

(My Comments)

Bills Barbecue closed because Buzz and Neds opened up down the street and at least 2 other barbecue restaurants opened up and created chains. Had nothing to do with Obama or Romney. I live down the street from Bill's on Broad, and I work next door to it.

Buzz and Neds, Famous Dave's, and Extra Billy's are all within a couple of miles of each other, with Bill;s sandwiched in the middle. One of them had to lose. Extra Billy's is literally a couple buildings down. They all opened up there within the last 4 years. That probably had much more effect than Obama and Romney isnt going to change competition either.
 
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