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[Marvie_3]

fanfic

Amazing. :lol

 

[Salvadora]

.

 

[speculawyer]

He may not think it's contradictory to trust poll internals without trusting the results of the poll, but I do. I'm not aware of any evidence that the poll is misleading and the internal data is not.

It is nonsensical. The biggest problem with polling is small sample size such that it is not random enough. With the internal break-outs, you have an even smaller sample size so you are even more likely to have errors.

 

[gkryhewy]

When I see Mexican workers build a highway overpass in 3 weeks (in Mexico) and the same task here takes 8 months here, it's obvious who is to blame. Every person deserves a fair shot and free education, but if they are too dumb to graduate from college, they should make significantly less (1/4 for example) than an engineer or a scientist and not $73/hour like an unionized GM assembly line worker.

When you don't incentivize being smart and hard work enough, you are only encouraging lazy and dumb people. Idiocracy at its finest.

1. Infrastructure is built faster in other countries because of lower engineering standards, lower safety standards, and reduced property rights, among many other reasons. It has nothing to do with the laziness of the workers.

2. Here is actual data for what GM assembly line workers earn. Sounds reasonable to me. http://www.glassdoor.com/Hourly-Pay...bly-Line-Worker-Hourly-Pay-E279_D_KO15,35.htm

3. Idiocracy indeed.

 

[Bowdz]

Nate Silver vs the World

And boom goes the dynomite.

 

[kirblar]

You forgot that he now understands history and geography and has moved beyond the silly statistics phase so many people go through in their youth.

He's likely still stuck in that silly "Ayn Rand" phase.

 

[HylianTom]

Reporting That Makes You Stupid

Today’s Financial Times bears a banner headline on p.1: “US election hangs on a knife edge”. Aside from everything else, surely this gets the cliche wrong: you rest on a knife edge, don’t you? If you try to hang on one, I think you just cut off your fingers.

More important, though, this headline deeply misleads readers about the state of the race — and in so doing, it echoes a lot of political reporting right now. Quite simply, many of the “analysis” articles being published in these final days leave readers worse informed than they were before reading.

As Nate Silver (who has lately attracted a remarkable amount of hate — welcome to my world, Nate!) clearly explains, state polling currently points overwhelmingly to an Obama victory. It’s possible that the polls are systematically biased — and this bias has to encompass almost all the polls, since even Rasmussen is now showing Ohio tied. So Romney might yet win. But a knife-edge this really isn’t, and any reporting suggesting that it is makes you stupider.

Worse yet, some reporting tells readers things the reporters have to know aren’t true. How many stories have you seen declaring that “both sides think they’re winning”? No, they don’t: the Romney campaign is visibly flailing, trying desperately to find new fronts on which to attack Obama. They clearly know that it will take a miracle — sorry, a last-minute surge — to prevail on Tuesday. It’s OK, I guess, to report campaign spin; but surely it’s not OK to report campaign spin as the truth, which is what these stories are doing.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/reporting-that-makes-you-stupid/

I know that it's been stated by Nate and others, but it's nice to see this being called-out more and more.

 

[BertramCooper]

A series of short stories:

Barry and Hilary
Mitt and Chris
Joe and Mrs. Ryan
Bill and Michelle
Karl and Ann

I started a Barry/Sonia/Elena one a couple of weeks ago, but I couldn't get it to work.

 

[Puddles]

It is nonsensical. The biggest problem with polling is small sample size such that it is not random enough. With the internal break-outs, you have an even smaller sample size so you are even more likely to have errors.

So it seems that there are a few ways this could go:

A) The makeup of the electorate is similar to years past, but Obama's turnout really does match 2008.
B) Many Republicans have gone independent, and that's why Democrats are +8 in some polls.
C) Romney isn't really leading independents by the margin that the polls show.
D) The polls are wrong, and Romney wins.

Am I missing any? And which would you say is the reason for this apparent discrepancy?

 

[dabig2]

I knocked on 54 doors today, and in total the OFA outfit I was working for knocked on almost 3,000. All registered voters. I'm not exaggerating or speaking metaphorically when I say that this operation is being run out of my parents' dining room. But there are tons of volunteers (there was never a time where someone wasn't coming or going) and in general a really enjoyable energy.

Lots of people claimed they went to try to early vote today but the lines were multiple hours long and are taking off work.

Someone from the campaign asked me to help staff the event in Hollywood with Obama tomorrow, pretty psyched for that. There is a dry run tonight I have to go to in a few hours.

The most interesting thing that happened to me was one woman stopping me who wasn't on my list. She was very enthusiastic about Obama and promised to get her friends to vote with her on Tuesday, but what really struck me was this little anecdote she told me: she's Catholic and at the most recent sermon at her church, the priest said, while he didn't explicitly endorse Romney, "If hundreds of thousands of murdered fetuses aren't enough of a reason to go vote, then I can't think of one." She told me she personally didn't support abortion but would never want it to be made illegal and couldn't believe her church would try to motivate people with that one, lone issue. Said she was considering leaving the church.

Faith++

Sounds great! It's those like you and all the rest helping the GOTV that are the heroes of this election.

I feel bad for not driving down to Virginia this weekend and helping out when I had the chance. Had too much work to do.

 

[Deleted member 47027]

What did you think about the debt ceiling crisis last year? Were you disappointed in your party's behavior during that debate?

The Tea Party has really been nothing but bad for Republicans. I was absolutely disappointed.

On that note, do you participate in any conservative forum? I can see why it is not too infuriating as issues are not discussed now as much as political drama and polls.

I do not go to any conservative or other political forums at all. Those tend to bring out the crazies (and personally there's some here, but not conservative) but I generally just keep politics to myself across the board.

Buuuuuuut you guys have mostly given a warm welcome and encourages folks like me to not stay quiet, so here I am.

 

[Half and half]

As a "new" person to Poli-GAF (and sensible Republican) I'm looking forward to the election being over and discussing everything beyond that. Just wanted to let you all know I planned on sticking around, I've heard you guys complain there's not enough Republicans up in here so...

And if you guys want me to meltdown if Obama ends up taking it, I wouldn't plan on it - the real political changes don't happen on election day, and apart from a lot of people out there in my party, I'm not too fussed about an Obama victory (as it plays into a few of my own personal wants, but not as much as a Romney win would)

If Huntsman were running, I wouldn't be overly bothered by it (esp. with Dems chances of keeping the Senate). I would actually have liked to see him debate Obama. I think it would've been a lot more professional and less showmanship.

fwiw, I hope Huntsman pops back up in the future.

 

[Deleted member 47027]

If Huntsman were running, I wouldn't be overly bothered by it (esp. with Dems chances of keeping the Senate). I would actually have liked to see him debate Obama. I think it would've been a lot more professional and less showmanship.

fwiw, I hope Huntsman pops back up in the future.

Would have been exciting, and I think professionalism has been lacking on both ends. Part of that's the audience, though...

 

[Aylinato]

So it seems that there are a few ways this could go:

A) The makeup of the electorate is similar to years past, but Obama's turnout really does match 2008.
B) Many Republicans have gone independent, and that's why Democrats are +8 in some polls.
C) Romney isn't really leading independents by the margin that the polls show.
D) The polls are wrong, and Romney wins.

Am I missing any? And which would you say is the reason for this apparent discrepancy?

It's B.


I like you.

 

[gcubed]

I mean... B isn't really a secret. There have been tracking graphs of voter Id showing exactly this

 

[Chichikov]

A series of short stories:

Barry and Hilary
Mitt and Chris
Joe and Mrs. Ryan
Bill and Michelle
Karl and Ann

We really need a Chris Christie and Candy Crowley one.
I think it should be titled "Where do I start? Where do I begin?".

Or that weightist?

If Huntsman were running, I wouldn't be overly bothered by it (esp. with Dems chances of keeping the Senate). I would actually have liked to see him debate Obama. I think it would've been a lot more professional and less showmanship.

fwiw, I hope Huntsman pops back up in the future.

I actually think that Romney could've been a pretty decent president out of the current political context.
I just think that we really can't afford handling the keys to this country to the current incarnation of the Republican party.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

How many fanfics have we had?

We should compile them into a lurid, nonsensical short story collection.

Has anyone been saving the posts? If someone has, please link them all. We could do one or two illustrations per story, a cover, use a nice typeface and make a pdf. We could sell hardcopies in the GAF store or print them on t-shirts.

 

[Puddles]

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/reporting-that-makes-you-stupid/

I know that it's been stated by Nate and others, but it's nice to see this being called-out more and more.

K-Thug has been on absolute fire this election season.

 

[Grakl]

Willard stepped out of the shower and turned to the mirror. Two years of campaigning had taken its toll on his body and mind. The last three months alone had aged him more than the past three decades. But it was worth it. America needed a leader, a true leader, and no other wealthy white man was better suited than him.

Oh my god. Beautiful.

 

[coldfoot]

1. Infrastructure is built faster in other countries because of lower engineering standards, lower safety standards, and reduced property rights, among many other reasons. It has nothing to do with the laziness of the workers.

Millions of people safely use Mexican highways daily. That's a load o BS. It's the Unions that encourage laziness, non unionized workers have been turned away from helping with the hurricane. That's all I need to know.

GM salaries you linked don't reflect the ridiculous benefits.

 

[VanMardigan]

Has anyone been saving the posts? If someone has, please link them all. We could do one or two illustrations per story, a cover, use a nice typeface and make a pdf. We could sell hardcopies in the GAF store or print them on t-shirts.

We could also sell it through the Kindle store. Political fanfic is a genre waiting to blow up.

 

[B-Dubs]

Millions of people safely use Mexican highways daily. That's a load o BS. It's the Unions that encourage laziness, non unionized workers have been turned away from helping with the hurricane. That's all I need to know.

GM salaries you linked don't reflect the ridiculous benefits.

No they have not. This is an outright lie. Don't bring that kind of shit up when it's not true. There are articles and letters from non-union crews helping out in Jersey and New York. Try again.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

non unionized workers have been turned away from helping with the hurricane. That's all I need to know.

Link?

We could also sell it through the Kindle store. Political fanfic is a genre waiting to blow up.

If the writers are down, we could definitely make something nice.

 

[StopMakingSense]

PPP Nat Tracking 50 O - 47 R


(really the best part of this will be all the ironic retweets from PPP in reaction to this)

 

[The Librarian]

Noise until proven otherwise.

 

[Averon]

PPP Nat Tracking 50 O - 47 R


(really the best part of this is all the ironic retweets from PPP in reaction to this)

So it looks like the national numbers and state numbers are finally converging. Obama winning the PV by 2-3 percent sounds about right.

 

[Half and half]

I actually think that Romney could've been a pretty decent president out of the current political context.

I just think that we really can't afford handling the keys to this country to the current incarnation of the Republican party.

Yeah, I think Romney is a lot more sensible than he appears. But the excessive flip-flopping and tea party pandering scares me. And...that 47% video won him no favors.

 

[metalslimer]

So it looks like the national numbers and state numbers are finally converging. Obama winning the PV by 2-3 percent sounds about right.

Yep. I also think there's no way Obama doesn't go over 300.

 

[XenodudeX]

So it looks like the national numbers and state numbers are finally converging. Obama winning the PV by 2-3 percent sounds about right.

Lets wait for other polls though.

 

[Snake]

Noise.

Daily tracking polls mean nothing to me, but it would be so so sweet if they all showed movement towards the President. It would completely murder the right's fantasies about the election breaking for Romney.

 

[coldfoot]

No they have not. This is an outright lie. Don't bring that kind of shit up when it's not true. There are articles and letters from non-union crews helping out in Jersey and New York. Try again.

I don't know the details but that's what I have heard in the news. Still does not excuse the fact that unions are thugs who extort high wages from their employers compared to college educated workers who are much smarter usually.

 

[pigeon]

A series of short stories:

Barry and Hilary
Mitt and Chris
Joe and Mrs. Ryan
Bill and Michelle
Karl and Ann

Don't forget Hillary and Sandy.

 

[jbug617]

Obama speaking in Iowa now.

 

[RDreamer]

Daily tracking polls mean nothing to me, but it would be so so sweet if they all showed movement towards the President. It would completely murder the right's fantasies about the election breaking for Romney.

Haven't they all already pretty much moved mostly toward Obama? Not by a ton, but in aggregate it's at like +1 or maybe 2 O.

 

[Ignis Fatuus]

I don't know the details but that's what I have heard in the news.

Stop watching Fox.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

Obama speaking in Iowa now.

Link? =)

 

[B-Dubs]

I don't know the details but that's what I have heard in the news. Still does not excuse the fact that unions are thugs who extort high wages from their employers compared to college educated workers who are much smarter usually.

The non-union thing is just factually wrong. It hasn't been in the news in the affected areas at all, there are plenty of papers in Jersey that have written articles disproving it and Christie himself said it was shit. That said you can feel that way if you want to I have a cousin that has a union job and he went through a lot of training in order to get it, he may not have gone to college but he's certainly worked hard enough to earn the wages he's paid and the benefits he gets.

 

[Krauser Kat]

This segment from on the media has a crazy libertarian.
http://www.onthemedia.org/2012/nov/02/gun-you-can-print-home/

 

[MasterShotgun]

Link? =)

C-SPAN

 

[TacticalFox88]

SO....looking back, which was more entertaining, GAF?

The Republican Primaries?


Or the General Election?

Spoiler

Primaries for me, by a country mile

 

[RDreamer]

Hahahahaha, greatest political ad ever

 

[Stinkles]

I don't know the details but that's what I have heard in the news. Still does not excuse the fact that unions are thugs who extort high wages from their employers compared to college educated workers who are much smarter usually.

Has to be trolling. Honestly this place could use a spring cleaning.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

hugs who extort high wages from their employers compared to college educated workers who are much smarter usually.

And here I was almost thinking this was a real poster. False alarm guys.

 

[Chichikov]

SO....looking back, which was more entertaining, GAF?

The Republican Primaries?


Or the General Election?

Spoiler

Primaries for me, by a country mile

The Rick Perry flamout was one of the most beautiful things I've ever seen in American politics.
And by the way, all my ex-Texans friends predicted it with eerie accuracy.

 

[B-Dubs]

Hahahahaha, greatest political ad ever

Vote against Octopus rape!

 

[Hazmat]

SO....looking back, which was more entertaining, GAF?

The Republican Primaries?


Or the General Election?

Spoiler

Primaries for me, by a country mile

The primaries without a doubt. There was a time where Republicans flocked to Herman Cain because of how little they wanted Mitt. I'm still kind of amazed by that.

 

[B-Dubs]

The primaries without a doubt. There was a time where Republicans flocked to Herman Cain because of how little they wanted Mitt. I'm still kind of amazed by that.

I miss the Cain train, I wish he had gotten the nomination.

 

[Y2Kev]

This is turning into an OBAMA WAVE.

 

[giga]

Noise until proven otherwise.

Real bad news...

 

[BertramCooper]

Hahahahaha, greatest political ad ever

But Japanese girls love that sort of stuff.