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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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B

Black Mamba

Member
Cloudy said:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/opinions/outlook-crystal-ball-contest/?hpid=z2

LMAO @ Jim Cramer's prediction. Chris Cillizza's is interesting considering he's a political reporter
Click to expand...

I got it to work:

PYoop.png


OH god, if this happened.
 
W

WatTsu

Member
I think it's worth pointing out that as entertaining as a 440 EV Obama win would be, Jim Cramer has somehow made a career out of being wrong.
 
H

hydragonwarrior

Member
WatTsu said:
Whatever happens on Tuesday (and we pretty much know what will) I just want to say as a mostly lurker, this is probably my current favorite thread on NeoGAF and honest to goodness one of the better political communities/forums I've seen online.

Keep the hopium alive.
Click to expand...

Wattsu why didn't you panic with us? Booo
 
C

Chichikov

Member
Rick Santorum was getting sweaty in his squirrel suit, he was waiting for him in the hotel room for over 2 hours.
But The Godfather was clear that his instructions are not be questioned.
Santorum first heard of the legendary conservative power broker after the Iowa caucus, but Rick was still optimistic back then, he never thought the he, the principled Christian candidate will need the help of such man.
But things have changed.
It wasn't easy.
The Godfather is not exactly listed in the phonebook.
It took quite a bit of persuasion and one very awkward trip to Voyeur before Michael Steele agreed to help.
"Go to room 214 in the Watergate hotel in DC, wear a squirrel costume with a vest".

And so he went, and there he waited, and just when doubt start creeping into his mind, the door cracked open.
A weird creature appeared.
"What are you? some kind of a gerbil? a hamster?"
The creatures stared at him with his dead beady eyes and said in a thundering baritone voice -
"Life can be a challenge.
Life can seem impossible.
It’s never easy when there’s so much on the line.
But you and I can make a difference.
There’s a mission just for you and me".

Santorum started to ask a question when the creatures grabbed him, turned him around and thrown him on the bed.
"Bite the pillow, I'm going in dry. And I'm Pikachu bitch and I'm on a mission to make some sweet Santorum tonight".

Santorum shouted - "No, wai...", but it was too late.

"WHAT'S MY NAME BITCH?" shouted the beast, "SAY IT!"

Santorum head (and lower colon) was exploding with pain and confusing pleasure, he was racing to try and remember the weird creature name.
"Pika? something? pika?"

"Damn straight!"
 
B

BuggyDClown

Member
I hope Nate is spot on this year. It will make the next election cycle easier since I'll just follow 538 and ignore the other polls all together.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
HenryGale said:
I hope Nate is spot on this year. It will make the next election cycle easier since I'll just follow 538 and ignore the other polls all together.
Click to expand...

That's the thing- Nate isn't just throwing out opinions like a pundit, his conclusions are based on mathematical breakdowns of poll aggregates. as those things go, he's fairly conservative in his conclusions. Wang is FAR more positive (as far as dems go.)

The only way nate could not be "spot on" (or underestimating obama, which is more or less the same thing) is if the entire science of polling is completely wrong this cycle- and there really isn't any reason to believe something like that is happening.
 
A

Averon

Member
HenryGale said:
I hope Nate is spot on this year. It will make the next election cycle easier since I'll just follow 538 and ignore the other polls all together.
Click to expand...

Which is exactly why the pundits and politico elites want Nate to fail. It makes pundits like Scarborough and sites like Politico.com obsolete.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Averon said:
Which is exactly why the pundits and politico elites want Nate to fail. It makes pundits like Scarborough and sites like Politico.com obsolete.
Click to expand...

Nothing is stopping CNN or politico from coming up with their own models. It makes it impossible to have a real horse race is the problem.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
That Ohio tweet is great news. Assuming that Obama has retained his very large margin of victory on early voters, Romney would likely need to win the remaining portion of the electorate by at least 56% in order to pull into a tie with Obama. Not gonna happen.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
B-Dubs said:
Nothing is stopping CNN or politico from coming up with their own models. It makes it impossible to have a real horse race is the problem.
Click to expand...

Can't speak for politico, but there's plenty stopping CNN.

CNN's entire business model is about pushing a narrative. it's not as right wing as fox (which has abandoned any pretense of being impartial) but it's there. "we don't take sides." "everything is a tie" "its a constant horse race."

having a definitive statistical breakdown of the race pointing clearly in one direction with a high track record of accuracy (as nate is) undermines their business model. There's no point to the rest of their programming if this keeps up.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
This narrative that Romney can work with the other party is just fucking silly. I feel like people are basing it on nothing more than he said he can. The dude vetoed 800 times in his time as governor and apparently 707 of those vetoes were overturned. That's not exactly working with the other party.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Dax01 said:
Apparently 11% of people are undecided in that Iowa poll.
Click to expand...

Romney needs to pick up 81% of them to lead. That would be...surprising.

Not super happy with that WI poll, but I guess that might explain Obama's visits. Also don't forget WI has same-day registration.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Manmademan said:
Can't speak for politico, but there's plenty stopping CNN.

CNN's entire business model is about pushing a narrative. it's not as right wing as fox (which has abandoned any pretense of being impartial) but it's there. "we don't take sides." "everything is a tie" "its a constant horse race."

having a definitive statistical breakdown of the race pointing clearly in one direction with a high track record of accuracy (as nate is) undermines their business model. There's no point to the rest of their programming if this keeps up.
Click to expand...

It does invalidate a lot of what Blitzer is doing, but his show is mostly useless anyway. I could see it working if they replaced Blitzer with someone serious.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Wisconsin's closer than I'd like. Too bad this is the last one there from PPP so we can't tell if it's a trend or just a lower part of the noise. Still think Obama's going to get the state, just maybe not by as much as I'd like.
 
H

Highwind

Member
(Caught a bit of Diablos)

Ugh, this scheming rat Jon Husted...I want to write off Ohio as "wrapped up" for Obama, but I can't with Jon Husted and "experimental software" on voting machines at on my mind. :/

I seriously hope no shenanigans like numbers being switched happens on Tuesday.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Chichikov said:
Rick Santorum was getting sweaty in his squirrel suit, he was waiting for him in the hotel room for over 2 hours.
But The Godfather was clear that his instructions are not be questioned.
Santorum first heard of the legendary conservative power broker after the Iowa caucus, but Rick was still optimistic back then, he never thought the he, the principled Christian candidate will need the help of such man.
But things have changed.
It wasn't easy.
The Godfather is not exactly listed in the phonebook.
It took quite a bit of persuasion and one very awkward trip to Voyeur before Michael Steele agreed to help.
"Go to room 214 in the Watergate hotel in DC, wear a squirrel costume with a vest".

And so he went, and there he waited, and just when doubt start creeping into his mind, the door cracked open.
A weird creature appeared.
"What are you? some kind of a gerbil? a hamster?"
The creatures stared at him with his dead beady eyes and said in a thundering baritone voice -
"Life can be a challenge.
Life can seem impossible.
It’s never easy when there’s so much on the line.
But you and I can make a difference.
There’s a mission just for you and me".

Santorum started to ask a question when the creatures grabbed him, turned him around and thrown him on the bed.
"Bite the pillow, I'm going in dry. And I'm Pikachu bitch and I'm on a mission to make some sweet Santorum tonight".

Santorum shouted - "No, wai...", but it was too late.

"WHAT'S MY NAME BITCH?" shouted the beast, "SAY IT!"

Santorum head (and lower colon) was exploding with pain and confusing pleasure, he was racing to try and remember the weird creature name.
"Pika? something? pika?"

"Damn straight!"
Click to expand...

This should be the very first fanfic in our compilation..it starts from GOP primaries..haha
 
P

Piecake

Member
RDreamer said:
This narrative that Romney can work with the other party is just fucking silly. I feel like people are basing it on nothing more than he said he can. The dude vetoed 800 times in his time as governor and apparently 707 of those vetoes were overturned. That's not exactly working with the other party.
Click to expand...

Not necessarily. I think the reasoning is that most people assume that the democrats are simply more reasonable, and not bat-shit insane like the republicans. Mitt would be able to be more bipartisan because of the democrats, not because of Romney is more convincing, persuasive
 
D

Diablos

Member
Loudninja said:
PPP WI

Obama 51
Romney 48
https://twitter.com/ppppolls
Click to expand...
Holy shit, no wonder Obama has WI on his final schedule so much. This is way too close for WI.

Cheebo said:
WMUR NH poll
O 47
R 47
Click to expand...
ughh

Silent Storm said:
(Caught a bit of Diablos)

Ugh, this scheming rat Jon Husted...I want to write off Ohio as "wrapped up" for Obama, but I can't with Jon Husted and "experimental software" on voting machines at on my mind. :/

I seriously hope no shenanigans like numbers being switched happens on Tuesday.
Click to expand...
I'm preparing for the worst but I'm hoping there's enough of a buffer to deny Husted the ability to flip the state.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Obama above 50% means Romney has to convince likely Obama voters that he's the better alternative. As you might understand, that is a momentous task especially this late in the game. At best, you can convince them from voting Obama to just not voting for nobody. That is why hitting 50% is important.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Obama Camp Boasts Huge Ground Game For Election Day
In a memo sent to reporters, the Obama campaign said it opened more than 5,000 get-out-the-vote “staging locations” Saturday morning in advance of the big push for votes Tuesday. Based in homes and businesses, the GOTV locations are “localized versions” of Obama field offices from which teams of volunteers using what the campaign says is advanced software will coordinate efforts to win the battleground states.

The campaign revealed some impressive results from its grassroots operations so far. Team Obama says the campaign has registered 1,792,261 new voters across the battleground states. That’s “nearly double the number of voters the Obama campaign registered in 2008,” according to the campaign.

Obama volunteers have had more than 125,646,479 personal contacts with voters by Saturday via phone calls and door knocks, the campaign said. That doesn’t count the “robocalls on auto-dialers, mail, literature drops or any other non-volunteer, non-personal contacts,” the campaign said.
Click to expand...
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/obama-memo-swing-state-voter-registrations.php?ref=fpa
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Piecake said:
Not necessarily. I think the reasoning is that most people assume that the democrats are simply more reasonable, and not bat-shit insane like the republicans. Mitt would be able to be more bipartisan because of the democrats, not because of Romney is more convincing, persuasive
Click to expand...

Yes, I know that's true, but the people saying this aren't really talking about that. The people I've heard parrot the stupid narrative are saying that Mitt himself is more bipartisan.
 
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