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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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R

RustyNails

Member
Alex Castellanos daughter is voting for...surprise! Mitt Romney. Whoda guessed, really?
My father Alex Castellanos' affiliation has not affected my decision. Although I respect his "suggestions," my choices are my own, as even he would tell you.
Click to expand...
This is the real kicker:
I am hoping, praying, that should he be elected, Romney's experience will lead to a positive shift in the economy and an increase in job creation.
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Yes, her entire argument for voting Romney is praying to Jesus that Romney's experience could be valuable.
Romney won't be able to change everything. But what if he could change the economy?

"You can stick with what's barely working or take a chance with [Romney]," said Jay Pharaoh, imitating the president on "SNL."

We've had a losing streak, so I'm taking a chance. Because four years from now, if President Obama is finishing his last months in office and we're deeper in debt, still praying for a winning jobs report, I'll know I got just what I expected.
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Yeah, thanks a lot to SNL for making her decide how to vote.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Piecake said:
we are? Who?
Click to expand...

Tammy-Baldwin-Wisconsin-Pride-2.jpg
 
R

RustyNails

Member
CNN has really turned into Republican-lite channel. Couple of days ago they had a headline piece on why we need people like Scott Brown, and now we have another piece from one of Romney's Republican strategist's daughter endorsing Mitt Romney (um, what the fuck makes her qualified to get a frontpage endorsement of Mitt Romney on CNN anyway?)
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Manmademan said:
Can't speak for politico, but there's plenty stopping CNN.

CNN's entire business model is about pushing a narrative. it's not as right wing as fox (which has abandoned any pretense of being impartial) but it's there. "we don't take sides." "everything is a tie" "its a constant horse race."

having a definitive statistical breakdown of the race pointing clearly in one direction with a high track record of accuracy (as nate is) undermines their business model. There's no point to the rest of their programming if this keeps up.
Click to expand...

Yup. Can't have "breaking news" if you're aggregating polls
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
RDreamer said:
Wisconsin's closer than I'd like. Too bad this is the last one there from PPP so we can't tell if it's a trend or just a lower part of the noise. Still think Obama's going to get the state, just maybe not by as much as I'd like.
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You can tell if it's a trend or noise if you look at the aggregate...
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Lindsy Graham is coming out the closet?
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That'd be hysterical if, before Baldwin is sworn-in, Graham comes out so that he gets to be the first. She'd still be the first openly gay person to be elected, but he'd be the first to just be a senator.

But it's not going to happen. He'll come out when he's arrested at a South Carolina rest stop.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Diablos said:
2008


Code: 
Barack Obama 	1,670,474 	  56.3% 	+6.6% 	
John McCain 	1,258,181 	  42.4    	-6.9
14 point spread.
Click to expand...

not sure what you're getting at?

kerry and gore were statistical ties, obama 08 was up 6 points, obama 2012 is up 3.

no one expects obama to hit 2008 level of support.
 
D

Diablos

Member
HylianTom said:
That'd be hysterical if, before Baldwin is sworn-in, Graham comes out so that he gets to be the first. She'd still be the first openly gay person to be elected, but he'd be the first to just be a senator.

But it's not going to happen. He'll come out when he's arrested at a South Carolina rest stop.
Click to expand...
Graham lookin' for some head on Craigslist? Oh my that would be too much.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Dax01 said:
You can tell if it's a trend or noise if you look at the aggregate...
Click to expand...

Well, yes, I realize that. I just meant within their own polling, too.

Are there going to be many other Wisconsin polls between now and election or are they all winding down now?
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Probably should expect to see nowcast come down very slightly, forecast to be static or move up towards nowcast tonight.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
RDreamer said:
Well, yes, I realize that. I just meant within their own polling, too.

Are there going to be many other Wisconsin polls between now and election or are they all winding down now?
Click to expand...

Probably winding down, though I wouldn't be surprised if another one or two showed up. But those races have been fairly stable in terms of who's ahead. I wouldn't expect any surprises there. Both will win by 2-3 points and it'll be fine.

I'm gonna be fucking stoked when Tammy wins. Champagne and shit.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
ivysaur12 said:
Probably winding down, though I wouldn't be surprised if another one or two showed up. But those races have been fairly stable in terms of who's ahead. I wouldn't expect any surprises there. Both will win by 2-3 points and it'll be fine.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I've been expecting about a 3 point win here for a while now. Close, but Obama's definitely going to get it.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Kak.efes said:
Is it safe to assume this ground game will be a staple for the party moving forward, or is it inextricably aligned to Obama's popularity?
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Provided Obama has a good relationship with whomever the candidate is, he can provide much of his data rolls and information on his campaign's structure. However, the candidate in question will still have to have a competent team in place to organize the campaign and know the best way to utilize the data. So it's not automatic win, of course.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
RDreamer said:
Well, yes, I realize that. I just meant within their own polling, too.

Are there going to be many other Wisconsin polls between now and election or are they all winding down now?
Click to expand...

I know that's what you meant, but any perceived trend in PPP's polling would show up in other polls, no?

Also, what has happened in the last few days for there to be a new trend?
 
S

SpeedySwaf

Member
Kak.efes said:
Is it safe to assume this ground game will be a staple for the party moving forward, or is it inextricably aligned to Obama's popularity?
Click to expand...
The Democrats will definitely be trying to make this a staple for years to come, and even when Obama is out of office, there's nothing stopping him from stumping for Democrats in the future and helping out. Though no doubt this will be off set by the Republicans making a more serious (or at least more efficient) effort in the future as well.
 
C

Clevinger

Member
RustyNails said:
Alex Castellanos daughter is voting for...surprise! Mitt Romney. Whoda guessed, really?

This is the real kicker:

Yes, her entire argument for voting Romney is praying to Jesus that Romney's experience could be valuable.

Yeah, thanks a lot to SNL for making her decide how to vote.
Click to expand...

Who is she? I mean, besides being Alex Castellanos' daughter.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Dax01 said:
I know that's what you meant, but any perceived trend in PPP's polling would show up in other polls, no?

Also, what has happened in the last few days for there to be a new trend?
Click to expand...

Romney's been up here a few times I guess, but yeah nothing to really show it was a trend. Wisconsin's polling has been kind of funky though, because I do remember it clipping rather close once when there wasn't really any reason to pin it on.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Kak.efes said:
Is it safe to assume this ground game will be a staple for the party moving forward, or is it inextricably aligned to Obama's popularity?
Click to expand...

The technology and tactics will be in place (Howard Dean started this) but a lot of these people are volunteers so they have to be emotionally invested in the candidate.

That's why I'm not so sure if a "regular" Democrat can win with Obama's coalition (assuming he's re-elected lol). A lot of this stuff just won't work without him or someone who can capture the imagination of minorities and young people (who have to be coaxed to vote) like he has
 
R

RDreamer

Member
I really hate this Artur Davis guy and his shitty anti-Obamacare commercial. Don't know much about him, but after the RNC and this, he comes off as such a backstabbing asshole now.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Kak.efes said:
Is it safe to assume this ground game will be a staple for the party moving forward, or is it inextricably aligned to Obama's popularity?
Click to expand...

It'll be a mixture. Outside of Hillary, I don't see there being a democrat candidate who can galvanize multiple demographics (blacks, Hispanics, youth vote, white liberals) as effectively as Obama has; he's a political phenomenon in that regard. But I do believe the actual democrat engine of early voting, caucusing, and organizing can be passed on to another candidate as long as he or she is an exciting candidate; so the organization will be there, the question will become who is best able to exploit it. For instance I couldn't imagine John Kerry coming close to what Obama is doing on the grass roots.

It's also worth noting that Howard Dean basically built the framework for this in 2005 and 2006 with the DNC 50 state strategy. The party just needs candidates who realize the importance of the grass roots. Obama made a lot of friends with the DailyKos, MoveOn, unions, etc types. That's why I don't believe Andrew Cuomo can be an effective democrat candidate: he turns off all of those groups.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Mgoblue201 said:
He may not think it's contradictory to trust poll internals without trusting the results of the poll, but I do. I'm not aware of any evidence that the poll is misleading and the internal data is not. Furthermore, his analysis of the issue of economic trust isn't terribly nuanced. He doesn't mention individual states, for instance. CBS News claims:

The president has gained some ground on handling the economy since last month. In August, Romney had an advantage on this issue (including a 10-point lead on it Colorado), but the candidates are now running much closer. In Colorado, 48 percent of voters think Romney will handle the economy better compared to 47 percent for Mr. Obama. In Virginia and Wisconsin, Mr. Obama has a 49-47 percent and 49-46 percent edge respectively on the economy issue.

And even if Romney is leading Obama nationally over the issue of handling the economy, the ABC News/WaPo poll found that Obama leads by 5% when people are asked "Who do you think better understands the economic problems people in this country are having?" There is no real reason to take these issues at face value, despite Cost's insistence that we do. How do we really know that people actually trust Romney on the economy? It could just be registering the discontent of the current economic situation, which doesn't tell us anything that we didn't already know. So this isn't issue isn't as obvious as he makes it out to be.
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I concur. It's abjectly fatuous to accept the parts while disregarding the whole. Additionally, his two premises are fallacious. First, it's misleading to ascertain a candidate's edge on an issue from a single survey question. That only measures one facet of a complex issue. For as you note, Obama's leading on other economic questions. And if he reasons fiscal issues are synonymous with the economy, he should also include questions about income inequality, Medicare, Social Security, and other plausibly economic issues where Obama holds an advantage. I interpret this as an amalgamation of his bias and tortured interpretation of political science.

Second, and this applies to Puddle's post, Romney's lead among independents is highly spurious. As has been noted repeatedly in this thread, more Republicans presently identify as independents than Democrats. The divergence between the Republican trend and independent trend is distinct. The cause seems to be the unpopularity of the Republican Party. Throughout the cycle, the Republican Party has trailed the Democrats in favorability. Given the favorability deficit, it's not surprising more Republicans are identifying as independent. Thus, Romney should outpace Obama with independents. So without the spurious assumption, his entire argument unravels. And for a student of history, he should be aware that it's not unusual for a candidate to win a close election while losing independents.
Puddles said:
So it seems that there are a few ways this could go:

A) The makeup of the electorate is similar to years past, but Obama's turnout really does match 2008.
B) Many Republicans have gone independent, and that's why Democrats are +8 in some polls.
C) Romney isn't really leading independents by the margin that the polls show.
D) The polls are wrong, and Romney wins.

Am I missing any? And which would you say is the reason for this apparent discrepancy?
Click to expand...
On the question of independents, John has written plenty about the problem of covert partisans—that is, that most independents act like partisans of one party or the other. But one thing that has been less remarked upon is that the use of the “independent” label appears to have shifted somewhat in recent years, a fact which has implications for using independents as a bellwether. Using 7-category partisan identification data from the most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, which identifies covert partisans in a follow-up question, we can estimate that 24% of Democratic identifiers or leaners call themselves “independent” at first. On the Republican side, the figure is 32%. Nowadays, more of the voters we think of as reliable Republicans are at first calling themselves “independent”—and are classified as such by any poll that doesn’t ask the follow-up question.

And if we look back to the same survey’s data in September 2004, we see some noteworthy differences. At that time, leaners made up 30% of those who were willing to term themselves “Democrats” in some form, while they made up just 26% of those who termed themselves “Republicans.” So eight years ago, the situation was reversed, with Democrats a bit more likely to use the “independent” label at first.

http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/09/26/polling-biases-and-their-potential-impacts/
Click to expand...
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
It'll be a mixture. Outside of Hillary, I don't see there being a democrat candidate who can galvanize multiple demographics (blacks, Hispanics, youth vote, white liberals) as effectively as Obama has; he's a political phenomenon in that regard. But I do believe the actual democrat engine of early voting, caucusing, and organizing can be passed on to another candidate as long as he or she is an exciting candidate; so the organization will be there, the question will become who is best able to exploit it. For instance I couldn't imagine John Kerry coming close to what Obama is doing on the grass roots.
Click to expand...

It's just too bad about Weiner. I feel like he could have connected with young people. Then again, he's out of the picture because he connected to young people on twitter lol
 
M

Manmademan

Member
PhoenixDark said:
It'll be a mixture. Outside of Hillary, I don't see there being a democrat candidate who can galvanize multiple demographics (blacks, Hispanics, youth vote, white liberals) as effectively as Obama has; he's a political phenomenon in that regard. But I do believe the actual democrat engine of early voting, caucusing, and organizing can be passed on to another candidate as long as he or she is an exciting candidate; so the organization will be there, the question will become who is best able to exploit it. For instance I couldn't imagine John Kerry coming close to what Obama is doing on the grass roots.

It's also worth noting that Howard Dean basically built the framework for this in 2005 and 2006 with the DNC 50 state strategy. The party just needs candidates who realize the importance of the grass roots. Obama made a lot of friends with the DailyKos, MoveOn, unions, etc types. That's why I don't believe Andrew Cuomo can be an effective democrat candidate: he turns off all of those groups.
Click to expand...

This is pretty much the only PD post i agree with. there's a lot of truth here.

Hillary, however, is done. not running. I'd bet a ban on it. Someone like schweitzer could bring in a lot of red state votes, as well as racist democrats (hell-ooooooooo west virginia) that would not vote obama under and circumstances.

the important thing overall is to stick with the 50 state strategy and keep hammering the ground game. it's romney's biggest weakness this cycle and I don't see that being corrected- I saw an article (but forget where) that showed the GOP expanding it's online presence and GOTV efforts in the wake of 08, but still only reaching the same elderly white vote because their messaging is so fucked.
 
C

Chichikov

Member
PhoenixDark said:
It'll be a mixture. Outside of Hillary, I don't see there being a democrat candidate who can galvanize multiple demographics (blacks, Hispanics, youth vote, white liberals) as effectively as Obama has.
Click to expand...
L4Sm1.jpg


You know what they say about black, and what you do and won't do once you went there.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Manmademan said:
This is pretty much the only PD post i agree with. there's a lot of truth here.

Hillary, however, is done. not running. I'd bet a ban on it. Someone like schweitzer could bring in a lot of red state votes, as well as racist democrats (hell-ooooooooo west virginia) that would not vote obama under and circumstances.

the important thing overall is to stick with the 50 state strategy and keep hammering the ground game. it's romney's biggest weakness this cycle and I don't see that being corrected- I saw an article (but forget where) that showed the GOP expanding it's online presence and GOTV efforts in the wake of 08, but still only reaching the same elderly white vote because their messaging is so fucked.
Click to expand...
If Hillary is not running, then why is Bill going so hard for Obama?


Manmademan said:
Isn't that deval patrick? he's not even IN new jersey.
Click to expand...

It's Cory Booker.
 
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