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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
mdrudge said:
Republicans up by 38,017 over Dems. Obama won Colorado with 53 percent in 2008. Republicans won the state with Dole and Bush.

http://content.govdelivery.com/atta...attachments/173160/Gen+Turnout+11+03+2012.pdf
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The number I saw was 36.9% to 34.6% of total voters. It's not really a significant number - if every independent voted for Romney, the general polls would probably reflect that.

(In a bit of odd trivia, I'm registered as a Republican and I vote Democratic every year)
 
B

BobTheFork

Member
mdrudge said:
Republicans up by 38,017 over Dems. Obama won Colorado with 53 percent in 2008. Republicans won the state with Dole and Bush.

http://content.govdelivery.com/atta...attachments/173160/Gen+Turnout+11+03+2012.pdf
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Well shit don't blame me I got my vote in.
I wonder what the impact of legal weed will be here if it passes. They passed the Denver law years ago but it was trumped by State law. I suppose there is also an impact to the dispenseries since you won't need a card to get yours anymore. I wonder the impact to drug testing... can it be banned criteria even if it's legal?
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/nbc-news-polls-sample-unskewed.php

Unbelievable. NBC unskewing their own polls

In an email to TPM late Saturday, Murray explained his reasoning behind it.
“We anticipated that there would be criticism of a D+9 sample, and asked our pollsters to assume — as an exercise — what the race would be simply if you halved that Democratic Party ID advantage,” Murray wrote. “We decided to publish that information in my story (towards the end, mind you). But make no mistake: The numbers are the numbers, and we stand by them.”
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B

Black Mamba

Member
whether someone votes early or on election day doesn't matter. Total votes matter.

Who cares who is winning early voting? I mean this both ways.

Just wait to see the final numbers.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Y2Kev said:
Someone talk me off the ledge; that article Nate tweeted by the conservative dude is scaring me AHH DIABLOS
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(c) McCain intentionally hamstrung his campaign in 2008 with unilaterally disarming self-abnegating campaign-finance limitations, next to no on-the-ground spending for get-out-the-vote efforts ("GOTV"), and wasting money on such tactics as a national ad congratulating Obama on winning the nomination. This undoubtedly made McCain feel better about himself, but meant that the GOP had a historically unprecedented disadvantage in GOTV. Even with the supposed 2012 Obama advantage in field offices (which neglects the fact that GOP turnout efforts are largely volunteer), Romney is doing comparatively better in 2012 than McCain did in 2008, which is the relevant comparison for whether the state polls are accurately predicting that Democratic turnout advantage will be higher in 2012 than in 2008.
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I've been saying this for awhile, but people blow it off because Obama still has more campaign offices. McCain got blown out the water in this regard, Romney is not.

He also points out if more white people vote it will likely add a full point to Romney's national standing.

We can play games and laugh all we want, but the fact is that multiple aggregates show a rather close race in multiple states (CO, VA, FL, NH), while others have clearer leads but aren't insurmountable (OH, WI). Republicans insinuate a wave will sweep Romney into the White House. All he needs is 2-4% more white people to vote

Disclaimer: If Hispanics turn out, this all may be moot and Obama will win. I do not believe they will though.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Cloudy said:
Take that, PD
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dat Rally Bump

Godslay said:
I'm confused. Is this actual voting results or just turnout figures?
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Actual figures. Party ID in early voting is one of those voodoo figures that probably doesn't mean anything, but people love to harp on them. Part of the problem is that it assumes identical turnout patterns - in 2008 McCain had set up very little to no ground game for early voting, so McCain tended to do better in election day voting.

In other words, GOPers are assuming the early voters are all people who didn't vote at all in 2008 since their math universally tends to assume identical figures for election day voting.
 
A

Aylinato

Member
mdrudge said:
Republicans up by 38,017 over Dems. Obama won Colorado with 53 percent in 2008. Republicans won the state with Dole and Bush.

http://content.govdelivery.com/atta...attachments/173160/Gen+Turnout+11+03+2012.pdf
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So I noticed your posting habit (out of 11 posts) and have decided to look into why your posts seem...familiar


mdrudge said:
Wisconsin Election History http://www.hhh.umn.edu/centers/cspg...hive/pdf/WI_Presidential_Election_Results.pdf

2004 2000
Kerry 49.7 Gore 47.8
Bush 49.3. Bush 47.6
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mdrudge said:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83150.html
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mdrudge said:
http://votamatic.org/can-we-trust-the-polls/

"What would “systemic” polling failure look like? In this case, it would mean that not only are some of the polls overstating Obama’s level of support; but that most – or even all – of the polls have been consistently biased in Obama’s favor. If this is happening, we’ll have no way to know until Election Day. (Of course, it’s just as likely that the polls are systematically underestimating Obama’s vote share, but then Democrats have even less to be worried about.)

A failure of this magnitude would be major news. It would also be a break with recent history. In 2000, 2004, and 2008, presidential polls conducted just before Election Day were highly accurate, according to studies by Michael Traugott here and here; Pickup and Johnston; and Costas Panagopoulos. My own model in 2008 produced state-level forecasts based on the polls that were accurate to within 1.4% on Election Day, and 0.4% in the most competitive states."

http://votamatic.org/another-look-at-survey-bias/

"A relatively small number of survey firms have conducted a majority of the state polls, and therefore have a larger influence on the trends and forecasts generated by my model. Nobody disputes that there have been evident, systematic differences in the results of these major firms: some leaning more pro-Romney, others leaning more pro-Obama. As I said at the outset, we’ll know on Election Day who’s right and wrong."
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mdrudge said:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cr...rats-hold-senate-edge-prior-to-final-weekend/

"In our private conversations with Democratic and Republican leaders, we see two diametrically opposed visions of the electorate — almost parallel universes — and two visions of how the election will shake out. Unsurprisingly, the Democrats AND the Republicans are confident of victory for their party in what is a close presidential contest. Democrats see favorable demographics and sturdy leads in enough states to get Obama over the magic 270-vote mark, while Republicans discern rumblings of a 1980-style wave that will not only ruin Obama, but also drown Democratic Senate candidates and ruin the reputations of many pollsters, particularly on the state level."
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mdrudge said:
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/rove-obama-romney-election/2012/05/24/id/440166
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mdrudge said:
http://www.nationaljournal.com/colu...lit-electoral-popular-vote-very-real-20121030
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mdrudge said:
siren.gif


http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/...e-factored-in-sunshine-state-is-exactly-tied/
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mdrudge said:
siren.gif



http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...-leads-in-swing-state-newspaper-endorsements/
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http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=42094265&postcount=6802







mdrudge said:
51R-45O

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politi...s-9-poll-i-4-voters-back-romney-51-45/1258459

Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida," said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, which conducted the poll for the Times and its media partners.
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Hello Mr. Drudge.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
I still find it funny that my in-laws vote democrat. Father in law is like the most southern person I know. He sounds like a typical dude from Kentucky, yet he was always asking us up here if we got rid of Walker yet, etc. And her mom has slipped up more than a few times with saying some sort of racist stuff, and she's totally evangelical. Actually both of them are kind of hardcore Christians. Yet they're voting Obama.
 
P

Paches

Member
RDreamer said:
I still find it funny that my in-laws vote democrat. Father in law is like the most southern person I know. He sounds like a typical dude from Kentucky, yet he was always asking us up here if we got rid of Walker yet, etc. And her mom has slipped up more than a few times with saying some sort of racist stuff, and she's totally evangelical. Actually both of them are kind of hardcore Christians. Yet they're voting Obama.
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They hate Mormons?
 
E

el retorno

Member
RDreamer said:
I still find it funny that my in-laws vote democrat. Father in law is like the most southern person I know. He sounds like a typical dude from Kentucky, yet he was always asking us up here if we got rid of Walker yet, etc. And her mom has slipped up more than a few times with saying some sort of racist stuff, and she's totally evangelical. Actually both of them are kind of hardcore Christians. Yet they're voting Obama.
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I've found canvassing there are a lot more people like this than people think. They tend to be cultural southern but when it comes to politics they don't fear the government and think helping people is actually a good idea. Southern Democrats are awesome.
 
P

Puddles

Banned
RDreamer said:
I still find it funny that my in-laws vote democrat. Father in law is like the most southern person I know. He sounds like a typical dude from Kentucky, yet he was always asking us up here if we got rid of Walker yet, etc. And her mom has slipped up more than a few times with saying some sort of racist stuff, and she's totally evangelical. Actually both of them are kind of hardcore Christians. Yet they're voting Obama.
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Healing the sick, helping the poor. Makes sense.
 
P

Puddles

Banned
http://www.dickmorris.com/in-the-last-few-hours-sudden-danger-signs-in-polling/

Nobody really knows what the impact of hurricane Sandy will be on the election. Until its waves crashed into the New Jersey shore, the election was well in hand for the Romney campaign.

Coming off strong debate performances in which he debunked Obama’s negative attacks on him, the former Massachusetts governor was doing very well. Obama was reeling, unable to regain his footing, in search of a message, and bedeviled by questions about his increasingly obvious coverup of the Libyan attacks.

But after the storm? Who knows? We have never had a storm so close to a national election, much less one as close as this is.
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Dick Morris is a goddamn fool.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Paches-EJ- said:
They hate Mormons?
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Nope, they usually vote democrat. Mother in law is in an awesome union, so that's probably part of it. She's got amazing healthcare and great pay because of that union. Father in law was on disability and stuff for a while for breaking his back in the navy (I think the navy anyway...). He was also in prison for a bit too I guess, though I don't know a lot about that since my wife doesn't even know why he was there (before she was born). So maybe he doesn't really get into the Republican stances of locking people up and throwing away the key, since he redeemed himself and turned into a pretty awesome dude. They're also both very old, since they had my wife late in life. So they're like as old as my grandparents.

I'm really not sure, honestly. By all rights they should be way more conservative than my parents, yet they aren't.


Puddles said:
Healing the sick, helping the poor. Makes sense.
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One would think, but as I said her mom's made some rather bad comments about lazy black people, etc, that almost put her in the bootstraps category.
 
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