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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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C

ClovingWestbrook

Banned
coldfoot said:
In the real world, they make FAR more than minimum wage and still don't get a college education. I am talking about how it should be, not how it is.


Has NOTHING to do with my point. If you enter an area that is clearly marked as unsafe and you die/get injured, no lawsuits. EVER. Those idiots deserve to die if they ignore warnings.
Click to expand...

Except this entire conversation began due to your lazy/spoiled American workers statement. That is how you currently view the situation and now you're arguing for your ideal reality? Lol. So again, IN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, how do minimum wage workers afford college. Do tell.
 
C

Chichikov

Member
coldfoot said:
Has NOTHING to do with my point. If you enter an area that is clearly marked as unsafe and you die/get injured, no lawsuits. EVER. Those idiots deserve to die if they ignore warnings.
Click to expand...
Why are you so eager to take judgment out of the equation?
When you make such broad rules, there were always be places where this can be abused/cause harm.

No, our problem is that our conflict resolution system (litigation) is fucking expensive, time consuming and often come with the wrong conclusions.
I blame lawyers mostly.
 
IrishNinja

IrishNinja

Member
RDreamer said:
Wow, there are reports of people still in line at 1AM in Florida for early voting?
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goddamn...and they kept it open too? this is what happens when you pull the last sunday out, scott

DMczaf said:
3DS XL and Beats
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ahahaha first thing i saw too

mesmerMAN said:
i live 10 mins from this place.

this is off Florida International University.

There's swamp right behind there. bacteria grows overnight and the mornings smell like sewage until the sun comes up and cooks up the bacteria.
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wait are you talking north campus? that's about how it smells, plus i live like 5 mins from south and dont recognize that place

mattiewheels said:
NINE hours?

I'm feeling really great about the two hour wait I had in Miami after hearing that.
Click to expand...

+1, waited 2.5 and was happy to do so to get my vote counted

Trakdown said:
So, some relief in Florida.
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i swear to god, from his polling #'s there's no way rick scott gets reelected but if it happens i will burn down disney land
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Bel Marduk said:
I don't know if I can vote for Crist. He was a Republican.. they threw him out and now.. he just seems like an opportunist but considering Scott is the second worst governor in the country.. I may just have to hold my nose and vote for Crist.
Click to expand...

It's not like Crist was ever anything more than a moderate Republican to begin with.

I had no problem voting for him in 2010 to try to keep Rubio out and I'll have no problem voting for him to kick Scott to the curb
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Also posted in the OT thread..

IanTweet.jpg

A64qor3CcAAzjWq.jpg
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Kusagari said:
It's not like Crist was ever anything more than a moderate Republican to begin with.

I had no problem voting for him in 2010 to try to keep Rubio out and I'll have no problem voting for him to kick Scott to the curb
Click to expand...

Seems logical

Will Obama ensure the dem field is cleared for Crist so he can get the nomination?
 
IrishNinja

IrishNinja

Member
Diablos said:
What Rick Scott is doing down in FL is just unconstitutional.
Click to expand...

voter suppression is pretty hip right now though

PhoenixDark said:
What we're seeing today has been obvious for awhile. Some assumed we'd see a crack down on early voting in 2016 if Obama won this year. No, we're seeing it this year. Romney will almost certainly win Florida due to this, and I maintain he will win Ohio due to absentee ballots being thrown out.
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PD my man are you gonna be doubling down on all of this in the coming days, because i like having a ground seat for these thigns

mesmerMAN said:
man i can't fucking WAIT so i can vote Rick Scott out of fucking office!
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man we should have a street party like calle ocho, for real
 
E

Effect

Member
After this election how you are going to handle voting days is going have to be a major question for anyone running for governor in Florida. It has to be. If not then...:(
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
Just left the EV voting center. Place is packed with people, and the lines are even longer than what was shown in the PBS pic. It's about 45 degrees f in Columbus, and my hands are aching from the cold.

In terms of party representation the dems were in much greater force than republicans. In fact, the only real presence from the GOP were anti abortion and anti gay signs. Some folks in the line (mostly black) didn't like the abortion signs, or Romney supporters. Many of them openly mocked Romney supporters while proudly holding up Obama signs.

There's a lot more to say, but I have to get home and upload the pics. Bb real soon guys.
 
IrishNinja

IrishNinja

Member
Averon said:
Who does Miami-Dade leans toward? Romney or Obama?
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we (and other bits of south florida) are the bastion of blue in an otherwise red state of crusty old white people upset that the rest of the south doesnt want them either. MIA is tricky cause the cuban bloc tends to vote republican, but a few pages back someone listed a herald article talking about how cubans now make up about 35% of the FL lationo vote (they cited puerto ricans but honestly we're seeing a huge influx of venezuelans after chavez, they're expected to outnumber cubans in the next few years).
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Averon said:
Thanks. I guess those lines are a good sign for Obama's chances to eke out a win in Florida.
Click to expand...

The excessively long lines are almost exclusively being reported in Dade and Broward, the two counties Obama needs to run up his vote total the most to have any shot at winning Florida.
 
C

coldfoot

Banned
Chichikov said:
Why are you so eager to take judgment out of the equation?
When you make such broad rules, there were always be places where this can be abused/cause harm.
Click to expand...
There will have to be judgement to determine if the warnings were adequate in my example. So I am not eliminating it. However, it'll have to be a government service, hell even make it an online poll if you want. Mandatory video surveillance will also help eliminate costs.

Chichikov said:
No, our problem is that our conflict resolution system (litigation) is fucking expensive, time consuming and often come with the wrong conclusions.
I blame lawyers mostly.
Click to expand...
Lawyers contribute nothing to society in terms of production, they are a drain on the system, however they are necessary. The only way to mitigate these costs is to make broad laws with very little room for interpretation.
 
G

giga

Member
Colorado - Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 11/2-11/4)
Florida - Obama 46%, Romney 46% (Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 11/2-11/4)
Ohio - Obama 48%, Romney 44% (Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 11/2-11/4)
Virginia - Obama 47%, Romney 46% (Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 11/2-11/4)
National - Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/31-11/4)

Already posted a page back, damn, oh well.
 
S

Slime

Banned
Cuccinelli reveals why he feels awesome in Virginia (hint: less voting)

Subject: Here's Why I'm Optimistic

Date: Nov 3, 2012 5:44 PM

Dear Friends and Fellow Virginians, I'm writing to you from the Romney/Ryan rally bus, in between rallies in Lexington and Christiansburg!

As many of you know, among other things, I am both a grassroots believer and something of a numbers geek. So, last night, after decent voter contact hours had passed, I started analyzing our absentee voter numbers - looking for clues as to the direction of Virginia.

We don't have no-excuse early voting in Virginia, but about 1/7 or 1/8 of the total vote can reasonably be expected to be cast via absentee voting.

So where do we stand so far and what does it mean?

Then

In 2008, over 506,000 absentee votes were cast. We lost absentees terribly - 64/36. Ouch. That was about a 150,000 vote margin. Super ouch.

Realize that Democrats achieved this kind of margin while beating us overall by only about 53/47. As is common, they did far better in absentee voting than their overall margin.

We lost Virginia by 235,000 votes in 2008, so the absentee margin was over half of Obama's total margin of victory in 2008.

So, how does this compare to 2012?

Now

When I looked yesterday, so far there are over 357,000 absentee votes cast. That's barely over 70% of the 2008 total. That's bad for them.

Happily, it gets worse... for them.

We don't register by party, so we need to use proxies to see what's happening.

So, let's look at it this way. We'll break down all 134 localities into four groups: 1) those that went for Bush in 2004 & McCain in 2008; 2) those that went for Bush in 2004 & Obama in 2008; 3) those that went for Kerry in 2004 & Obama in 2008; and 4) those that went for Kerry in 2004 & McCain in 2008 (there are only two of these, see below).

I ranked all 134 localities in Virginia from those that are producing the highest proportion of absentee votes compared to their 2008 performance (Buchanan County, 103%), to the lowest proportion (Portsmouth City, 34%).

So, to be clear, in Buchanan County in 2008 there were 672 absentee votes cast; and as of late this week, 694 had been cast - 13% of the 2008 numbers. In Portsmouth City in 2008 there were 7,513 absentee votes cast; and for this year so far? 2,536 - only 34% of their 2008 numbers.

Of the top 10 absentee voter turnout localities this year, 9 are Bush/McCain localities. 22 of the top 25 are Bush/McCain. 41 of the top 50 are Bush/McCain. And 71 of the top 100 are Bush/McCain. Yowza! Looking good!

Kerry/McCain?

There were two Kerry/McCain localities - the neighboring coal counties of Buchanan and Dickenson. At 103%, Buchanan has the highest proportion of absentee turnout relative to 2008, and Dickenson ranks 47th with 82% of its 2008 turnout - 12% above the state average.

These were yellow dog Democrat counties in Presidential elections for as far back as I remember, but Barack Obama managed to convince them - barely - to vote Republican in 2008. 4 years of experience will only strengthen the trend, and so they reasonably should be looked at like the Bush/McCain localities.

If you count them that way, then the rankings of how we're doing changes to show us doing relatively better since 2008 in all 10 of the top 10 absentee voting localities, 23 of the top 25, 43 of the top 50, and 73 of the top 100. That's a very strong showing in our favor.

Math

So, what does this mean in raw votes?

If we simply take the 64/36 split from 2008 and apply it to this year's absentee votes, our math looks like this:

64% of 357,000 votes cast so far equals about 229,000 votes.
36% is approximately 128,000 votes.
That's a 101,000 vote margin in their favor; however,
That's almost 50,000 less votes than their 2008 margin among absentees.

So, even if the Democrats keep the same percentage of votes among absentees, the turnout change alone has already cut more than 1/5 of the total vote gap from 2008.

But the changes from 2008 suggest we're going to move significantly away from their nearly 64/36 win of absentees.

The absentee turnout among Kerry 2004 localities this year is only 65% of the 2008 levels - and these are the strongest Dem localities! The absentee turnout among localities Obama won in 2008 is 68%.

On our side, the absentee turnout among Bush 2004 localities is 75%. And the absentee turnout among McCain localities is 76% - these are our strongest localities.

This means that the 64/36 margin among absentee voters from 2008 is going to get much closer. Let's say it's 55/45 their way this year instead of 64/36 - a reasonable estimation at this point - then the math looks like this:

55% of 357,000 votes cast so far equals 188,000 votes.
45% is approximately 169,000 votes.
That's a mere 19,000 vote margin - 130,000 fewer than in 2008 among absentees!

So, just with our current effort, we have already closed half of the gap from 2008!

Great job to all of you that have put in your time, money and effort to make this happen!

I hope this is as encouraging to you as it is to me! Now, if we just finish this race out with the same level of effort that we've had for months, we will win Virginia, BUT, note the caveat ... "with the same level of effort..."

Let's finish strong so Virginia can lead America's turnaround by electing Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, and returning George Allen to the U.S. Senate!

I will see you on the campaign trail!
Sincerely,
Ken Cuccinelli, II
Attorney General of Virginia
Click to expand...

Republican celebrating less voting. Big surprise.
 
S

saelz8

Member
hym said:
Hah Zynga for Romney according to BuzzFeed, the results were predictable but the outliers are so stereotypical I'm almost questioning the accuracy of the methods to reach this result. Congratulations to Dota2 players are in order I guess, Steam users as a whole I assume.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/what-your-favorite-hobbies-and-games-say-about-you
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PC Gamers, more likely to vote Obama. DOTA 2. PVZ. League of Legends. Minecraft. The Sims III. Diablo 3. SCII. There are only 2 console-only games to the left of the PC Games.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
So my mom said Crist was at the Obama rally in Hollywood and Obama thanked him personally.

Seems likely Obama will throw his support behind him to upend Scott.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Seems like Iowa is Obama's to lose, given the EV lead. Same with Nevada being locked up. Ohio remains the big question mark, and it's clear Romney will win Florida
 
T

Tendo

Member
So people in my area are throwing a fit because the democratic party is handing out sample ballots to indicate how to fill it out for democratic candidates as a lot of the offices don't have D or R next to them. So now everyone is throwing a hissy fit.

Wrong thing to do - ask why no one from the Republican party is out there doing the same. Or just. You know. Fill in the opposite bubble on your ballot.

Or not pick one up.

I hate my life.
 
H

Hawkian

The Cryptarch's Bane
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/...ting_n_2073119.html?utm_hp_ref=elections-2012 I am basically going to lose my mind if the margin is close enough for a couple thousand votes in broward to have made the difference in florida. i demand some sort of cogent explanation from rick scott.
On Twitter, former Republican governor Charlie Crist -- who is now an independent -- responded to news of the office's closing, writing on Twitter, "Let the people vote!"
Click to expand...
Charlie Crist, whatever you run for in your career you will have my vote.
 
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