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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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HylianTom

Banned
Obama still has a 78% chance in Virginia, according to Mr Nate. I like those odds. OHVA is more likely for Barry than Mittens.

We'll see.

I'm trying to think of what I'll tweet when the race is called for Obama, and I think it will almost certainly have to incorporate this. :)
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Florida is going to be called really late anyway. ohio is more important in letting us go to bed
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Without question.

Since Nevada is baked in, he only needs Ohio.

Ohio, Ohio, Ohio.

Also, that's up one point from PPP's last poll.

Yes. Romney would need to also take Pennsylvania and Colorado or New Hampshire.

This is what Silver had as the map that Romney could be going for, with his foray into Pennsylvania.

TN7n2.png


That gets him to 273.

npPIo.gif


See the problem you face here is I can no longer tell if you're trolling.

It's still over if he wins Ohio.

Dude, I'm scared shitless right now. I'm not gonna be able to rest until it's confirmed Obama's won.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Sounds like a joke. Hopefully.

Barbaro reports for the NYT, so I am wondering..

edit: two more reporters

Sarah Boxer ‏@Sarah_Boxer (CBS News) http://twitter.com/Sarah_Boxer
"As @MittRomney speaks, many people- cold, old, w/children... All rushing out of barricades, right by press riser"

Jackie Kucinich @JFKucinich (USA Today) http://twitter.com/JFKucinich
"People are literally sneaking out gates now bring told they can't leave way pic.twitter.com/uvlPBys5
There are several people here at Pa. rally who want to leave and aren't being let out.
Man just pulled me aside and said "My son is on the verge of hypothermia" just as staffer starts letting people out a few at a time."
 

Kusagari

Member
Florida is going to be called really late anyway. ohio is more important in letting us go to bed

It's not going to be called until Wednesday at the earliest.

If the laws that anyone who is there in line before 5 hold, then we're likely going to have people voting up to midnight - and possibly later.

The lines are going to be insane.
 

Hawkian

The Cryptarch's Bane
Can the Big O win without Florida and Virginia?
Certainly.

My favorite incredibly unlikely scenario is this:

Obama loses Ohio but wins Florida.

He then loses Vrginia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada.

He then wins New Hampshire with its 4 electoral votes

Obama wins.
 

Hawkian

The Cryptarch's Bane
Raised in Miami, this has me fucking furious. I want to turn this state so fucking blue you'll think the Genie from Aladdin transformed into Florida.
We are allies you and I.
Barbaro reports for the NYT, so I am wondering..

edit: two more reporters

Sarah Boxer ‏@Sarah_Boxer (CBS News) http://twitter.com/Sarah_Boxer
"As @MittRomney speaks, many people- cold, old, w/children... All rushing out of barricades, right by press riser"

Jackie Kucinich @JFKucinich (USA Today) http://twitter.com/JFKucinich
"People are literally sneaking out gates now bring told they can't leave way pic.twitter.com/uvlPBys5
There are several people here at Pa. rally who want to leave and aren't being let out.
Man just pulled me aside and said "My son is on the verge of hypothermia" just as staffer starts letting people out a few at a time."
Let the people go home, Mitt.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
It's not going to be called until Wednesday at the earliest.

If the laws that anyone who is there in line before 5 hold, then we're likely going to have people voting up to midnight - and possibly later.

The lines are going to be insane.

You're talking about Florida in terms of calling times, right? I think the election should end 12-1 AM ET.
 

Hawkian

The Cryptarch's Bane
You're talking about Florida in terms of calling times, right? I think the election should end 12-1 AM ET.
He's right, though, with the way lines will be, especially the way we want them to be in Broward after today, a Wednesday too-close-to-call isn't at all out of the question.

I seriously may not make it through this week blood-pressure style
 

Chichikov

Member
You're talking about Florida in terms of calling times, right? I think the election should end 12-1 AM ET.
The election would be called exactly the same time as '08, when the west coast polls are closing.

You are most likely going to have a long ass time to set up victory shots.
 
Certainly.

My favorite incredibly unlikely scenario is this:

Obama loses Ohio but wins Florida.

He then loses Vrginia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada.

He then wins New Hampshire with its 4 electoral votes

Obama wins.

one of my favorite unlikely scenarios is obama losing OH, FL, and VA, but winning NV/IA/CO/NH. CO doesn't look good, but i guess this scenario would happen if hispanic voters are being underrepresented in polls. it's pretty funny though that obama can conceivably win without OH, FL, or VA.

so many paths to victory. that PPP ohio poll is an injection of hopium straight into my veins.
 
Does he have any gay friends?

Before you vote on a marriage amendment like this, you should have to go in front of all your gay friends and tell them how you're voting. But then ASSURE THEM YOU'RE NOT ANTI-GAY!
Trust me, I asked him if he'd be willing to tell a gay person that he doesn't think that their love is worth marriage. He said he wouldn't be.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Steve Singiser ‏@stevesingiser
Minnesota. RT @5hauser: KSTP/SUSA poll shows Obama leading Romney 52% to 41%. MoE +-4.%. Obama lead was 7 pts earlier this week. Now 11.

Scaaaaryyy.. Minnesota's close! Not.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Steve Singiser ‏@stevesingiser
Minnesota. RT @5hauser: KSTP/SUSA poll shows Obama leading Romney 52% to 41%. MoE +-4.%. Obama lead was 7 pts earlier this week. Now 11.

Scaaaaryyy.. Minnesota's close! Not.

But George Will told me Romney would take Minnesota. I'm not buying it.
 

AniHawk

Member
Steve Singiser ‏@stevesingiser
Minnesota. RT @5hauser: KSTP/SUSA poll shows Obama leading Romney 52% to 41%. MoE +-4.%. Obama lead was 7 pts earlier this week. Now 11.

Scaaaaryyy.. Minnesota's close! Not.

strange that it increased after ryan visited. you think it would have been closer afterward, like nevada was!
 
OK so I was fine this whole election but with it being so close my anxiety is going into overdrive. I know bams has got this but the wait is killing me. I need tuesday to be here.

I can even do anything to pass the time like play video games or what not because I lose focus thinking about the election.


I need a good glass of wine.

Obama rarely strikes me as genuine. Seems like a narcissistic to me.

Can you expand on this? You nailed his relationship with Michelle
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Steve Singiser ‏@stevesingiser
Minnesota. RT @5hauser: KSTP/SUSA poll shows Obama leading Romney 52% to 41%. MoE +-4.%. Obama lead was 7 pts earlier this week. Now 11.

Scaaaaryyy.. Minnesota's close! Not.

Anyone who thought for an instant Romney had even a snowball's chance in hell at Minnesota was delusional

Still gonna make sure I vote though, mostly for the amendments.
 
It isn't "micromanaging" to have federal laws governing federal elections. Nor to have a federal agency oversee the election, including having the responsibilities to purchase and provide adequate voting machines, ensure their adequate distribution, and ensure the existence of enough poll workers to facilitate timely voting. States are budget constrained, and will inevitably skimp wherever they can. The federal government has no such limitations. Ensuring smooth voting should be one of the federal government's highest priorities, given that voting is what provides the very legitimacy of democratic governments.
First to be clear, you and I have the same fundamental goal: well run elections, we just disagree at the level at which it needs to be administrated.

The problem I have with administrating elections at the federal level is that so very few of the elections that will be overseen are federal elections and bureaucracies are poorly suited to handle the widely differing needs of various jurisdictions.

Detzner isn't elected, I don't think, and the local officials have been much better in general but don't have a great deal of autonomy. How should a local official actually go about reducing waiting times that much?
Even if Detzner isn't elected, the county officials appear to be. After the 2000 election, I was under the impression the county officials had a fair bit of autonomy (although I can see why that would be changed after that election.) They certainly seemed at one time to be empowered to choose the type of ballot. If that's still the case, they could choose optically scanned paper ballots to leave how fast the poll worker can check people in to be the only constraint on number of people voting. Perhaps they could increase the number of polling locations (I know my county election official has that power.) Perhaps they could find a better polling place that is better able to accommodate the number of voters. That's just a few things a local official could do off the top of my head.

Do you know ifthe redistricting amendment is going to pass? If it fails, my faith in humanity would drop to nil. Seriously, every state should pass this amendment (legislature sure as hell aint going to do it)
Whoa, is this that?
Columbus Dispatch said:
The commission would consist of 12 members and be re-established after each federal 10-year census.... The process begins with the chief justice of the Ohio Supreme Court selecting “by lot” a panel of eight appellate-court judges, four from each party. This panel selects the most-qualified 42 candidates, 14 from each party and 14 who are unaffiliated with either party. The House speaker and minority leader then each eliminate three candidates from each of the three groups, reducing the number to 24.

From this pool, the panel chooses “by lot” three candidates from each of the three groups. The nine selected then choose one member from each group. These 12 individuals will comprise the commission. They cannot be removed and are ineligible for election or appointment in any district that was established or modified by the commission.
That sounds convoluted. Why not just do it like Iowa, and have a computer draw up the districts and have the Legislature vote it up or down?
 

IDK also it looks like the staffer didn't say to the mother "its not cold enough" he said that to press after the fact.

I think this is really lame to be pushing this unless other details come out. It doesn't look like they were trying to inflate number or something. Just probably poor planning and something else. I've seen these kind of things happen at event's I've been to.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Okay, looking at a few of their polling threads, a good number of them are still blaming Christie (or "Jabba the Hut" as one of them says) and Sandy.

An even bigger number of them are trying to unskew the Rasmussen poll showing a national tie.

So no real changes. They're decidedly less confident, already making excuses, already worrying about Christie's faux-endorsement, the Sandy Bump, and Obama's cheating.

Ras Ras Ras sample too big on Ds Ras Ras sample size God Chicago Thugs Ras Ras Ras
Haha!
 
What is lame about it?If people wanted to leave they should be able to leave.

It looks like they eventually left but the staff and SS was holding them back for security reasons. Have you never seen that at a concert or a large crowd? People not being allowed to leave right away?
 

IrishNinja

Member
best thing to come out of this FL mess would be people here seriously having the long overdue talk about impeaching scott, but that wont happen

Raised in Miami, this has me fucking furious. I want to turn this state so fucking blue you'll think the Genie from Aladdin transformed into Florida.

add one more to your group, bro

If Scott, or any republican for that matter gets elected governor in 2014, I'd welcome a secession movement.

calm down, crist didn't nearly do us like this
 
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