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[HylianTom]

rcp now has virginia in obama's camp by 0.2 points. their no toss-up map is 303

jacknicholson.gif

Their no toss-up map is mine! Huzzah!

And with the confidence that Obama has indeed got this, it certainly seems like everyone here has chilled the fuck out. Nice.

 

[pigeon]

One more quick hit: at the end of early voting, Democrats had about a 50,000 vote lead in Nevada, about half what he had in 2008 (90,000). He's projected to win Nevada by 6 points -- half his margin in 2008. So the early voting totals, at least, are matching up exactly with projections, including being down in NC.

 

[Trurl]

I'm curious to see an updated version of this map for '08 -> '12.. probably a lot redder

It might be more interesting to see '04->'12

Edit: heh, that might be the only map where Indiana is the bluest state in the country.

 

[AniHawk]

Their no toss-up map is mine! Huzzah!

And with the confidence that Obama has indeed got this, it certainly seems like everyone here has chilled the fuck out. Nice.

i think i'll check out if there are any election night things around here. it's orange county, so finding people like-minded is probably limited, but on the other hand, it could still be a lot of fun.

 

[Link]

That's because you're irrational.

Yes, I am. Also a pessimist.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Yes, I am. Also a pessimist.

So you think all the polling data is wrong and Husted and Scott will prevail?

 

[Diablos]

irc.wiicafe.com / #poligaf

Join us.

 

[MetatronM]

I'm curious to see an updated version of this map for '08 -> '12.. probably a lot redder

Probably the overwhelming majority of that map will be red.

 

[Link]

So you think all the polling data is wrong and Husted and Scott will prevail?

I think the polls are close enough that it's no sure thing.

 

[Puddles]

I'm fine with that, actually. I'd be completely OK with the Bush tax cuts expiring completely. We have bills to pay, programs to fund. I'd take a hit to my check, but I'll adjust.

Let me tell you a little something about Modern Monetary Theory...

 

[ryutaro's mama]

I think the polls are close enough that it's no sure thing.

I'm not sure even the Romney campaign is this optimistic.

 

[bananas]

I think the polls are close enough that it's no sure thing.

What polls? Every poll that matters in the last two days have shown Obama ahead or tied. Not a single one has shown a Romney lead.

 

[Mike M]

I cut the cord earlier this year, so I'm going to either watch local coverage or stream online.

The TPNN guys are going to be streaming somewhere, right? They're my top pick to watch right wing implosion.

 

[Puddles]

Forgot to post this an hour ago.

It's closer to 48 hours until we actually get the results.

 

[IrishNinja]

but what if romney is up 4 points

the "revenge" talking point/meme, what's the origin on that?

 

[Diablos]

Good Eastern PA power news (I think)

http://www.sacbee.com/2012/11/04/4960362/ppl-electric-utilities-nearing.html

ALLENTOWN, Pa., Nov. 4, 2012 -- /PRNewswire/ -- PPL Electric Utilities will have restored 99 percent of its customers left without power by Hurricane Sandy by late Sunday night (11/4). The extent of the destruction will require some repairs involving a few thousand customers to extend into Monday (11/5).

"We have the largest force ever assembled by PPL Electric Utilities undoing the damage caused by Hurricane Sandy, and they have brought power back for well over 400,000 of our customers," said Dave Bonenberger, vice president of Distribution Operations for PPL Electric Utilities. "With the extensive damage from this storm and the time it's taking to complete many complex jobs, unfortunately a few thousand customers will be without power into Monday."

The utility was contacting customers not expected to have service restored by tonight. It expects to complete restoration work Monday in communities where power outages remain and continues to move workers into those communities as crews complete work elsewhere.

Outages are expected to continue into Monday in some areas of Lehigh, Northampton, Bucks, Montgomery and Wayne counties in eastern Pennsylvania.

"As we near the end of the recovery effort, the jobs that remain are restoring power to ever-smaller numbers of customers, but our workforce of more than 5,000 people, including 3,000 field workers, has maintained the same level of urgency throughout this difficult process," Bonenberger said.

PPL Electric Utilities has added 700 line workers in eastern Pennsylvania since Friday after those workers finished working in other areas of the PPL Electric Utilities service territory.

Utility workers from at least 10 different states, including PPL Electric Utilities' sister utilities in Kentucky, are supporting storm damage restoration.The size of the field workforce is more than triple the size of PPL Electric Utilities' field workforce in normal conditions.

Power is expected on by Sunday night at all public schools and voting locations in the PPL Electric Utilities service area.

PPL Electric Utilities' automated system that provides customer messages on estimated restoration times was turned off after technical problems on Saturday resulted in customers receiving inaccurate messages.

Eastern PA GAF: Is PPL the most common distributor out there? I'm too far removed to know.

Lehigh, Northampton, Bucks, Montgomery and Wayne are still without outages today. Note that all but one of them went for Obama in 2008. Philly is also still having problems from what I can understand.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

It's closer to 48 hours until we actually get the results.

This is a countdown towards election day. I mean it's still Christmas at 12:00am December 25th but you don't open your gifts until morning.

 

[Magni]

It might be more interesting to see '04->'12

Edit: heh, that might be the only map where Indiana is the bluest state in the country.

True. And yeah, I noticed that too about Indiana haha.

I've also been looking at turnout rates from '08, only 54% in Texas. Wonder what the R/D split is among the 46% of non-voters in that state. And :lol at Hawaii (48.8% turnout)

 

[Link]

What polls? Every poll that matters in the last two days have shown Obama ahead or tied. Not a single one has shown a Romney lead.

The polls that show Obama ahead are the ones I'm talking about. I worry Romney is gonna get a big Election Day turnout. I know that's not likely and all signs point to a comfortable Obama win, but like I said, I'm irrational and pessimistic. It gets especially bad so close to the end.

 

[Puddles]

As a reddit poster pointed out, with one in six odds you are essentially playing a game of Russian Roulette on Tuesday. Low probability of bad outcome, major negative consequences if bad outcome occurs.

That's if you go with Silver.

Sam Wang has Obama's chances at over 98%.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

but what if romney is up 4 points

the "revenge" talking point/meme, what's the origin on that?

Obama said, "Don't boo, vote--that's how you get your revenge." at a rally.

A mountain was born from said molehill.

 

[bananas]

Obama now at 86.3% chance of winning on 538. That's only 0.8 lower than from his high of 87.1% on October 4th.

 

[Magni]

This is a countdown towards election day. I mean it's still Christmas at 12:00am December 25th but you don't open your gifts until morning.

Wait what?

Also I hope that power outages don't screw things up in PA. Another reason why early and mail-in voting systems are awesome.

 

[Hunter S.]

One more quick hit: at the end of early voting, Democrats had about a 50,000 vote lead in Nevada, about half what he had in 2008 (90,000). He's projected to win Nevada by 6 points -- half his margin in 2008. So the early voting totals, at least, are matching up exactly with projections, including being down in NC.

I was recently told that when people of either party from the West see their candidate winning they get excited and vote in greater numbers. Nevada and Colorado will have a better turnout if Obama is winning heavily in Ohio. I expect this to happen and to result in a better liberal turnout in the West.

 

[ISOM]

The polls that show Obama ahead are the ones I'm talking about. I worry Romney is gonna get a big Election Day turnout. I know that's not likely and all signs point to a comfortable Obama win, but like I said, I'm irrational and pessimistic. It gets especially bad so close to the end.

You don't think obama is going to have a huge election day turnout as well? I foresee democrats coming out in huge numbers on election day, hell look at the lines for early voting in florida and tell me you won't see something similar on election day.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Obama now at 86.3% chance of winning on 538. That's only 0.8 lower than from his high of 87.1% on October 4th.

And the now-cast: 88%. Will be over 90% come election day.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

And the now-cast: 88%. Will be over 90% come election day.

Hey Ghaleon, talk Link off the ledge.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Wait what?

I'm saying this is the last 24 hours before it is officially election day.

 

[eBay Huckster]

ann coulter just tweeted this

Illinois in play: Early/absentee voting down 57% in Chicago. Unless O wins BIG in Chicago, he loses the state.

a troll too far

 

[Link]

You don't think obama is going to have a huge election day turnout as well? I foresee democrats coming out in huge numbers on election day, hell look at the lines for early voting in florida and tell me you won't see something similar on election day.

Democrats tend to turn out more for early voting and Republicans tend to turn out more on Election Day. So it's a matter of "banking" enough votes to maintain a lead when all's said and done.

 

[bananas]

Mittmentum

 

[Magni]

I'm saying this is the last 24 hours before it is officially election day.

I know, my post was in reaction to "people wait till morning to open their Christmas gifts".. I don't know anyone who didn't rush the tree at midnight haha

 

[bananas]

ann coulter just tweeted this



a troll too far

Even if that were true, Chicago is Obamaland. They're going to be overwhelmingly pro-Obama.

 

[Effect]

Those power outages in PA are worrying me some. If it's just to housing that's one thing. If it's polling locations that could be something else. I'm in Carbon, we have power, but haven't been able to speak to anyone that has gone to the other counties lately to know how bad things might be. As long as it's back to normal or clsoe come Tuesday morning things should be okay. News reports tomorrow will naturally paint a better picture.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I know, my post was in reaction to "people wait till morning to open their Christmas gifts".. I don't know anyone who didn't rush the tree at midnight haha

I've heard of midnight rushes but never thought it actually happened.

 

[Puddles]

ann coulter just tweeted this



a troll too far

She graduated cum laude from Cornell and later got a JD. It doesn't make sense to me. Did she suffer a severe blow to the head shortly after passing the bar? I've never read anything by her to make me think she's any better than below-average intellectually.

 

[AniHawk]

Mittmentum

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

And the now-cast: 88%. Will be over 90% come election day.

Nate is biased so PD prefers to take the 10% Mitt victory as fact.

 

[bodyofanamerican]

She graduated cum laude from Cornell and later got a JD. It doesn't make sense to me. Did she suffer a severe blow to the head shortly after passing the bar? I've never read anything by her to make me think she's any better than below-average intellectually.

She just knows what pays her bills and keeps her rich, and it ain't thoughtful political analysis.

 

[MasterShotgun]

Shouldn't the forecast and nowcast on 538 converge tomorrow?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Shouldn't the forecast and nowcast on 538 converge tomorrow?

It should I guess. I don't think they ever get the same though, just closer to each other.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

She just knows what pays her bills and keeps her rich, and it ain't thoughtful political analysis.

She is self aware.

She was on Real Time last month and was grinning like a troll, egging the audience on.

 

[bananas]

Shouldn't the forecast and nowcast on 538 converge tomorrow?

On Tuesday.

Which is technically tomorrow now, I suppose. So, yes.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Hey Ghaleon, talk Link off the ledge.

Okay.

Link, if you time your jump right, you might see the election called for Obama right before you hit the ground. So please hold off a bit longer, because that would be hilarious.

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

She graduated cum laude from Cornell and later got a JD. It doesn't make sense to me. Did she suffer a severe blow to the head shortly after passing the bar? I've never read anything by her to make me think she's any better than below-average intellectually.

Expert troll.

 

[CygnusXS]

Link is a mets fan guys, he doesn't know what positive thinking even is.

 

[Link]

Link is a mets fan guys, he doesn't know what positive thinking even is.

This. I'm also a Jets and Knicks fan. It's pretty much a lesson in futility.

 

[Zzoram]

Expert troll.

Who is this you guys are talking about?

 

[Diablos]

Those power outages in PA are worrying me some. If it's just to housing that's one thing. If it's polling locations that could be something else. I'm in Carbon, we have power, but haven't been able to speak to anyone that has gone to the other counties lately to know how bad things might be. As long as it's back to normal or clsoe come Tuesday morning things should be okay. News reports tomorrow will naturally paint a better picture.

Is PPL the only provider in eastern PA worth a shit? Because (requoted from last page):

Outages are expected to continue into Monday in some areas of Lehigh, Northampton, Bucks, Montgomery and Wayne counties in eastern Pennsylvania.
...
Power is expected on by Sunday night at all public schools and voting locations in the PPL Electric Utilities service area.

Sounds like (fingers crossed) things should be up and running by Tuesday, at least for schools and voting.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

.