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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
I thought there were also Romney internals from a couple weeks ago that matched the public polling too, so they just adjusted their turnout models to strongly favor republicans.

Rocket Scientist said:
I don't know why you guys are shitting on internals, when everyone keeps saying Nate Silver was more accurate because he had acces to Obama's internal back in '08.
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Nobody said that but GOP critics. If he had access to Dem internals then, why wouldn't he use those now?
 
DietRob

DietRob

i've been begging for over 5 years.
Sunflower said:
Can we have it "Voter Fraud OT" instead of specifying Republican? So many of those are hearsay and then picked up on outlets dying for clicks.

I have too much faith in people :p
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Yep I'm down for that too. We need to aggregate all of the voting fraud that is going on.

For science, of course. Somebody do it.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
Incognito said:
drudge-siren.gif


Final national ABC/WaPo poll:

50 Obama
47 Romney

http://t.co/3phkHRuL
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Bad news for........fuck it, Romney is screwed
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Reid Epstein ‏@reidepstein
Jay Carney confirms that Obama put Bruce Springsteen on the phone w/@govchristie aboard Air Force One today. #matchmaker
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Not sure what to make of this. Are they besties now?
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Rocket Scientist said:
I don't know why you guys are shitting on internals, when everyone keeps saying Nate Silver was more accurate because he had acces to Obama's internal back in '08.
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As I just posted, there's a huge, huge difference between access to somebody's internal polls, and access to the internal polls somebody chooses to show you.

edit:
HylianTom said:
Reid Epstein ‏@reidepstein


Not sure what to make of this. Are they besties now?
Click to expand...

HOLY SHIT

THE FIX IS IN

FOR MORE ON THE FIX PLEASE SEE http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/07/jersey-boys/309019/
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Sunflower said:
Yeah. And that's a question I can't answer. There's the people that are either living vicariously through someone else's politics and voting early (stop doing that!) or they're extremely energized and know their vote counts - then there's the large amount of citizens that don't even THINK about early voting, and just assume "welp, Election Day. Let's go." and never go that route. And to be honest, I think the "uhhh...I just vote on Election Day, isn't that always how it is?" are heavier Republicans because we're pretty set in our ways and pretty oblivious about better ways to do things :p
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And to tie this back into the discussion of polling, the exit polls are critical to our understanding of the electorate. And since that's in a period of considerable change, I think it adds some uncertainty to the mix. I recall from 2008 that the exit pollsters did something to try and account for it, but it's still an X factor that might not be picked up in the polls.

For instance, from Nate's latest post:

Moreover, there are any number of alternatives to explain Mr. Obama’s gains before and after the storm hit.

•Mr. Obama was adjudicated the winner of the second and third presidential debates in surveys of voters who watched them.
•The past month has brought a series of encouraging economic news, including strong jobs reports in October and last Friday.
•The bounce in the polls that Mr. Romney received after the Denver debate may have been destined to fade in part, as polling bounces often do following political events like national conventions.
•Democrats have an edge in early voting based on states that provide hard data about which party’s voters have turned out to cast ballots. Some voters who were originally rejected by the likely voter models that surveys apply may now be included if they say that they have already voted.
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My emphasis added. I think that's a plausable explanation, and another way that early voting might impact the polls and our understanding of the electorate.
 
K

Kai Dracon

Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
If Obama pulls through, can we have PoliGaf 2012 [OT] Pockets Full of Sunshine, Binders Full of Polls ?
 
D

Deleted member 47027

Unconfirmed Member
GhaleonEB said:
My emphasis added. I think that's a plausable explanation, and another way that early voting might impact the polls and our understanding of the electorate.
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I think it's important, but the exit polls are supposed to tell us exactly HOW important. So I'm still waiting.
 
H

Hawkian

The Cryptarch's Bane
OH MY GOD

This sean hannity stuff OH MY GOD

https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/265551392578625537

MSNBC accidentally posts a test bed page for their election night results with nonsense data

Politico picks it up and makes a blog post about it

Sean Hannity glances it over and sees the popular vote and posts "Looks promising MSNBC thinks Romney will win" even though Obama still wins the election on that page which has meaningless data on it to begin with

sooooo gooooooooood. I am going to try to call into his radio show tonight and make fun of him about this.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
HylianTom said:
Reid Epstein ‏@reidepstein


Not sure what to make of this. Are they besties now?
Click to expand...
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazinez/archive/2012/07/jersey-boys/309019/
lol, Christie fucking loves Springsteen, that's just his inner fanboy coming out now that Bruce will actually talk to him.

This concert is the 129th the governor has attended. His four children all went to Springsteen shows in utero. He knows every word to every Springsteen song. He dreams of playing drums in the E Street Band. People like Chris Christie don’t fall asleep at Springsteen shows.
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Despite heroic efforts by Christie, Springsteen, who is still a New Jersey resident, will not talk to him. They’ve met twice—once on an airplane in 1999, and then at the 2010 ceremony inducting Danny DeVito into the New Jersey Hall of Fame, where they exchanged only formal pleasantries. (Christie does say that Springsteen was very kind to his children.) At concerts, even concerts in club-size venues—the Stone Pony, in Asbury Park, most recently—Springsteen won’t acknowledge the governor. When Christie leaves a Springsteen concert in a large arena, his state troopers move him to his motorcade through loading docks. He walks within feet of the stage, and of the dressing rooms. He’s never been invited to say hello. On occasion, he’ll make a public plea to Springsteen, as he did earlier this spring, when Christie asked him to play at a new casino in Atlantic City. “He says he’s for the revitalization of the Jersey Shore, so this seems obvious,” Christie told me. I asked him if he’s received a response to his request. “No, we got nothing back from them,” he said unhappily, “not even a ‘Fuck you.’”
Click to expand...
 
S

speculawyer

Member
HylianTom said:
Reid Epstein ‏@reidepstein


Not sure what to make of this. Are they besties now?
Click to expand...

Chris Christie is a huge Springsteen fan and The Boss has snubbed him at every turn and never met with him despite Christie attending some 30+ concerts. Bruce is not a big fan of Christie's politics. But with his hard work with the Sandy response, Christie has FINALLY won some attention from Bruce.

It is a big deal for Chris Christie.
 
A

Averon

Member
Amir0x said:
Literally within 5 seconds of sitting down in my office I had Gary O'Toole and his friend rush in to YELL AT ME in the most obnoxious fashion over and over:

"Obama is down is Ohio.
He's down in Florida, in North Carolina.
He's done in Virginia, in Iowa, in New Hampshire.
He might even come near death in Pennsylvania!"

Then I informed him about the state of the polls, which he uniformly denied even existed, and then we started arguing loudly about Republican voter suppression efforts, to which they ended by yelling at my repeatedly about how early voting is against the constitution.

It got so heated that he tried to end it by betting me $100 bucks Romney would win, but I could not take that bet. I'd get fired for betting on the Election at work anyway.



Dat trendline
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Ha! Assuming everything goes as expected, what are your expecting to see Wednesday morning in your co-workers?
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
One of my favorite things about that ABC/Washington Post poll: it's yet another poll showing Obama's supporters as being more enthusiastic than Romney's.. by 8%.

http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1143a15TrackingNo15.pdf

And yet, we'll still see the Morning Joe-type clowns repeat the enthusiasm lie over and over again.. ugh..

speculawyer said:
Chris Christie is a huge Springsteen fan and The Boss has snubbed him at every turn and never met with him despite Christie attending some 30+ concerts. Bruce is not a big fan of Christie's politics. But with his hard work with the Sandy response, Christie has FINALLY won some attention from Bruce.

It is a big deal for Chris Christie.
Click to expand...
I hadn't realized this. Wow.
 
T

Trakdown

Member
GhaleonEB said:
I love how the graph ends exactly as it began - 50-47. So much happens over the months they polled - and nothing changed. :lol

The degree to which the race has been stable all this time is the real story.
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So Mittens did convince 47% of the voters to vote for him. Awesome.
 
D

Deleted member 47027

Unconfirmed Member
speculawyer said:
Chris Christie is a huge Springsteen fan and The Boss has snubbed him at every turn and never met with him despite Christie attending some 30+ concerts. Bruce is not a big fan of Christie's politics. But with his hard work with the Sandy response, Christie has FINALLY won some attention from Bruce.

It is a big deal for Chris Christie.
Click to expand...

Pretty sad shit, dickridin' like that. Good lord Christie.
 
O

Omiee

Member
i have a feeling romney might win tomorrow =(

i was so looking forward to living in the states with obama being president.

ah well cant wait to move to the states next year.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Averon said:
Ha! Assuming everything goes as expected, what are your expecting to see Wednesday morning in your co-workers?
Click to expand...

If it's anything like their reaction to the Affordable Health Care ruling, just complete all-encompassing rage or depression. Accusations that the election was stolen. Probably all intermixed with overt racism
 
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