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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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Cloudy

Banned
Final Gallup writeup

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158519/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx

President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are within one percentage point of each other in Gallup's final pre-election survey of likely voters, with Romney holding 49% of the vote, and Obama 48%. After removing the 3% of undecided voters from the results and allocating their support proportionally to the two major candidates, Gallup's final allocated estimate of the race is 50% for Romney and 49% for Obama.
 

DietRob

i've been begging for over 5 years.
I wish I could have gone to the rally at 5/3 Arena yesterday. Tried but no tickets left.

I wonder how many were there last night while my wife was standing in line for 6 hours to vote down the street from there.
 

Kai Dracon

Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
So Mittens did convince 47% of the voters to vote for him. Awesome.

Besides the irony of that number, at the end of tomorrow night approximately one half of the country or other is going to be taking a trip:

CGhl2.jpg
 
I'm making a list of every national poll with data from last Sunday in it to today with the latest number for the pollster. Only margins, rounded. I do not use pollsters for the party ala Democracy Corps.

RAND: O+5
National Journal: O+5
Pew: O+3
ABC: O+3
HPU: O+3
PPP: O+2
Reuters: O+2
YouGov: O+2
CBS: O+1
NBC: O+1
UPI: O+1
Purple: O+1
Fox: Tie
ARG: Tie
CNN: Tie
SUSA: Tie
GWU: Tie
Gallup: R+1
Ras: R+1
JZA: R+2

Total average: O+1.25
Obama leads: 12
Romney leads: 3
Ties: 5

IDB will update later tonight. If I'm missing any, let me know.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Know what I'm really going to enjoy?

That magical period of time on Election Night where Ohio has been called for Obama, but the West Coast states aren't called yet, and the anchors are pretending that Romney can still seek other, more-arduous-but-possible paths to victory. Watching them squirm and hypothesize is going to be so much fun!
 

Aylinato

Member
Everyone calm down..I got inside information





Here is a post that will illustrate exactly what I am referring to.


Wait for it



wait for it
 
D

Deleted member 47027

Unconfirmed Member
Know what I'm really going to enjoy?

That magical period of time on Election Night where Ohio has been called for Obama, but the West Coast states aren't called yet, and the anchors are pretending that Romney can still seek other, more-arduous-but-possible paths to victory. Watching them squirm and hypothesize is going to be so much fun!

I don't know why you'd enjoy things like that, but at that point I'm just going to go to bed. Why dwell on it?
 
Prediction: Obama wins re-election and we find out fairly early in the night.

GOP comes out immediately refusing to compromise on anything ever.
 
Obama's voice seems shot. :/

Looks like he's tired of the campaign just like we are.

how many rallies has he even had in the past couple weeks?

Know what I'm really going to enjoy?

That magical period of time on Election Night where Ohio has been called for Obama, but the West Coast states aren't called yet, and the anchors are pretending that Romney can still seek other, more-arduous-but-possible paths to victory. Watching them squirm and hypothesize is going to be so much fun!

i'm planning on switching my election-night party over to fox news once ohio gets called just to enjoy the schadenfreude (and probably basing a bit of this drinking game on when we're watching fox)
 

DietRob

i've been begging for over 5 years.
Guys. Calm down, we got this. Seriously. Get everyone you know to vote. This election is too important to stay home.

I talked to my cousin for an hour last night trying to convince him. However, he is one of those crazy dudes who thinks it's all rigged anyway.

MY MAN B-ROCK.. SHOW THAT PASSION !! He's convincing OHIO what this is ALL ABOUT!!
 
Did anyone read David Frum's argument for Romney

The congressional Republicans have shown themselves a destructive and irrational force in American politics. But we won’t reform the congressional GOP by re-electing President Obama. If anything, an Obama re-election will not only aggravate the extremism of the congressional GOP, but also empower them: an Obama re-election raises the odds in favor of big sixth-year sweep for the congressional GOP – and very possibly a seventh-year impeachment. A Romney election will at least discourage the congressional GOP from deliberately pushing the US into recession in 2013. Added bonus: a Romney presidency likely means that the congressional GOP will lose seats in 2014, as they deserve.

Basically: Let the Bully have his way.

Wow.
 
D

Deleted member 47027

Unconfirmed Member
But what will happen to Poli-GAF if Romney is elected?

I'll be smiling a little, but it's not that big of a deal. The real work and change comes far later. Other than that, expect the rest to go on as usual.
 

Forever

Banned
Just got back from more canvassing in Florida.

Don't count this state out. There are hopeful signs down here.

I'm going to watch the election unfold at a big celebration by the waterfront. Expecting good times.
 

Mike M

Nick N
I'm not the least big worried, oddly enough. I probably should be slightly anxious, since Romney's chances aren't negligible. If this were a game of XCOM, this would be the shot with 88% chance to hit that misses and starts a chain reaction that wipes out my squad : (
 

Hawkian

The Cryptarch's Bane
Just got back from more canvassing in Florida.

Don't count this state out. There are hopeful signs down here.

I'm going to watch the election unfold at a big celebration by the waterfront. Expecting good times.
brofist

Anything can happen
 

Aylinato

Member
Just got back from more canvassing in Florida.

Don't count this state out. There are hopeful signs down here.

I'm going to watch the election unfold at a big celebration by the waterfront. Expecting good times.

That reminds me I gotta text the field organizer and see what he wants me to do when I'm off work tomorrow
 
FINAL PREDICTION



....same as two weeks ago.

Obama wins with 2008 map excluding indiana (which, by the way, why did they have such a huge swing?)

Dems gain 1-3 senate seats

Dems take the house by 2.
 
D

Deleted member 47027

Unconfirmed Member
So since a lot of you are Dems if I say I'm out driving people to polls, you'll beat me with sticks, right?
 
Did anyone read David Frum's argument for Romney

The congressional Republicans have shown themselves a destructive and irrational force in American politics. But we won’t reform the congressional GOP by re-electing President Obama. If anything, an Obama re-election will not only aggravate the extremism of the congressional GOP, but also empower them: an Obama re-election raises the odds in favor of big sixth-year sweep for the congressional GOP – and very possibly a seventh-year impeachment. A Romney election will at least discourage the congressional GOP from deliberately pushing the US into recession in 2013. Added bonus: a Romney presidency likely means that the congressional GOP will lose seats in 2014, as they deserve.


Basically: Let the Bully have his way.

Wow.
WTF?

"and very possibly a seventh-year impeachment." . . . Really Frum? Threatening impeachment? For what? PWB?
Presidenting While Black

"A Romney election will at least discourage the congressional GOP from deliberately pushing the US into recession in 2013."?!?! Nice economy you have there . . . it would be a shame if something were to happen to it.

Shame on you Frum. You are a little wuss that sucks up to the bad people. No wonder you came down here from Canada and sucked up to powerbrokers.
 

Kai Dracon

Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
Did anyone read David Frum's argument for Romney



Basically: Let the Bully have his way.

Wow.

So: admitting Republicans are just holding America hostage at gunpoint for the sake of it. So much for "we don't negotiate with terrorists!" Give 'em whatever they want.
 

besada

Banned
I don't see the point of splitting posts/insights/comments/news/reports from on the ground over two threads. It doesn't make sense.
We were here first. Management forced us out of OT, which is management's right. Some of us prefer the chatty bonhomie of PoliGAF to the raucous volcano of the full OT. If users don't want to double post, they are welcome to pick one or the other.
 
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