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[ivysaur12]

Release fake internals in a last ditch effort to control the new cycle?

Yes. I hope Obama releases his.

 

[pigeon]

Well if Romney's internals are correct...we are fucked



Question is if the internals are correct...why leak them

FYI: Internal polls released to the public have a 6-point bias, on average, as we saw in Wisconsin recall earlier this year.

So, five point lead for Obama in Ohio, three points in New Hampshire, four points in Iowa? Six points in PA and WI?

Sounds about right.

 

[Loudninja]

seems election is over



Colorado... no way that's going that way with that large of a gap



haha Pennsylvania is a tie

come on

PPP NV

Obama 51
Romney 47

 

[gutter_trash]

what's with Joe Scarborough thinking that either PA or Wisconsin can go RED? what he smoking?

 

[Officerrob]

Yup.

Exclusive: Romney campaign internal polling puts Republican nominee up ONE POINT in Ohio and TIED in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
I saw them at a certain mail that is put out daily.. google for it..


OH+1
NH+3
IA+2
down in NV
tied in WI & PA

Nothing on his internal VA and FL numbers? He's spending a lot of time here in VA, so I wonder what they have it at

 

[Plinko]

Can someone help me understand internal polls? Why would one campaign's internal polls be more (or less) credible than public polling companies?

Because they're always "accidentally" leaked and show a close race or a slight lead, which is supposed to motivate their own voters to come out and vote for them.

 

[Kusagari]

I don't understand New Hampshire. Why is it a swing state?

 

[GregLombardi]

Can someone help me understand internal polls? Why would one campaign's internal polls be more (or less) credible than public polling companies?

Assumptions. If you make different assumptions about turnout, etc, that can completely change outcomes.

Assumptions underly every poll. The problem with internal polls is that they are highly likely to be biased (for obvious reasons). A lot of other polls are likely to be biased, which is why you look across the spectrum of every poll released to get the true tale.

 

[RustyNails]

Losing campaign tactics. No credible poll shows them in the lead, so they release cooked up internals.

McCain 2008 internal polls:

“Today John McCain is down one point in Iowa.”

He was citing an unreleased internal McCain campaign poll of the state, which was completed last Thursday, said Black.

“McCain is in a good position to win every red state,” Black said. “Plus he is probably going to win Pennsylvania and Iowa.”

 

[kingkitty]

Obama's team just leaked an internal poll:

Texas 60-40 O

 

[Brinbe]

CNN showing Bill on the stump in Philly, as awesome as ever.

 

[el retorno]

what's with Joe Scarborough thinking that either PA or Wisconsin can go RED? what he smoking?

The good stuff.

 

[gutter_trash]

I don't understand New Hampshire. Why is it a swing state?

Old School Republicans voters that voted for Nixon, Reagan, HW Bush, W Bush

 

[Effect]

So, five point lead for Obama in Ohio, three points in New Hampshire, four points in Iowa? Six points in PA and WI?

Sounds about right.

Right around where the other polls are. They could have at least changed things up a bit.

 

[Amir0x]

Ol' Scarbs, I cannot wait to see him eat crow. I almost want to see him eat it more than anyone other than Gary O'Toole at my job.

 

[HylianTom]

The good stuff.

Ha! Forget alcohol - there seems to be sooo many folks saving "something special" for Election Night!

 

[besada]

There should really only be one active election thread and Poligaf should stay closed during election day.

Hell no.

 

[Brinbe]

Also note which states were "leaked"... Where's Florida? Virginia? Colorado? North Carolina? Yeah.

 

[effzee]

Guys I'm scared! I know I know but still.

Just want it to be over.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Can someone help me understand internal polls? Why would one campaign's internal polls be more (or less) credible than public polling companies?

I'll just put out there what everyone knows - because they aren't the actual internal polling numbers, they're made up numbers to convince the base they are winning.

 

[worldrunover]

Romney will win tomorrow due to the Redskins Rule. It even held up in 2004, the Redskins actually beat the Packers but the play was called back due to a phantom flag:



http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=241031028

All my faith in sports outcomes affecting other outcomes have now been dashed since Kentucky won the NCAA championship and the Yankees didn't hold up their end.

 

[GhaleonEB]

PPP is now even trolling on their site

I guarantee these same idiots saying the polls are biased and wrong today will be saying the election was stolen come Wednesday, with nary a moment in between when their brains landed on the obvious conclusion.

 

[NullPointer]

if Pennsylvania goes to Romney I'll shave my cats.

 

[jbug617]

Ol' Scarbs, I cannot wait to see him eat crow. I almost want to see him eat it more than anyone other than Gary O'Toole at my job.

I seen him today talk about the Hurricane will be the reason if Romney lose.

 

[Y2Kev]

Telling that libgaf has no answer to these credible polls showing Romney ahead in key swing states such as Ohio.

Also no wonder he's spending so much time in PA.

 

[speculawyer]

Hell no.

I'm with this. I like a public OT thread and a PoliGAF hopium den.

 

[Amir0x]

I seen him today talk about the Hurricane will be the reason if Romney lose.

fucking shame that the Republicans have to find a way to avoid looking inside themselves

 

[Deleted member 47027]

I guarantee these same idiots saying the polls are biased and wrong today will be saying the election was stolen come Wednesday, with nary a moment in between when their brains landed on the obvious conclusion.

I do think the polls aren't nearly accurate enough, but I won't say the election is stolen on Wednesday. I think our entire polling system needs to be fixed in a major way. I don't think there's a huge amount of chicanery above the norm, but I also don't trust it nearly enough. I'm sure most people feel the same way.

 

[jbug617]

I prefer to talk in the Poligaf thread than the OT.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Telling that libgaf has no answer to these credible polls showing Romney ahead in key swing states such as Ohio.

Also no wonder he's spending so much time in PA.

No wonder Romney's speeches all say "When I am President" instead of "If."

I for one welcome our new Romney overlords

 

[Averon]

Campaigns have a history of "accidentally" leaking internal polls showing them in good shape. Pretty obvious this was a purposeful leak to control the last day of the media narrative.

 

[BertramCooper]

fucking shame that the Republicans have to find a way to avoid looking inside themselves

They can't do that because they'd discover that they're all gay.

 

[Loudninja]

I prefer to talk in the Poligaf thread than the OT.

Yep.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

Hell no.

I don't see the point of splitting posts/insights/comments/news/reports from on the ground over two threads. It doesn't make sense.

 

[BobTheFork]

Can someone help me understand internal polls? Why would one campaign's internal polls be more (or less) credible than public polling companies?

I think there is a perception that people want to vote for the winner. They want to make people think he is going to win, so why vote against him.

 

[Brinbe]

http://www.barackobama.com/live Jay-Z on now in Columbus. P. funny to see him performing PSA and keeping it clean.

 

[Deleted member 47027]

http://www.barackobama.com/live Jay-Z on now in Colombus. P. funny to see him performing PSA and keeping it clean.

Was wondering what was up with your post on Wrassle-GAF, I'm reading the two at the same time as well, heh.

 

[norinrad]

Mittens will be president tomorrow. America's sons will be sent into Syria to fight. 3 wars people. Repubs love invading other countries for giggles and Iran is next

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Welp, I have some bad news. I know someone who's father's ex-wife's gay brother's lover secretly works for the Obama campaign and he has stated that Obama is down by 3 points in Ohio, 2 in Penn, and 1 in Virginia

 

[GhaleonEB]

I do think the polls aren't nearly accurate enough, but I won't say the election is stolen on Wednesday. I think our entire polling system needs to be fixed in a major way. I don't think there's a huge amount of chicanery above the norm, but I also don't trust it nearly enough. I'm sure most people feel the same way.

My big question come election day is, how are the exit polls being conducted?

With such a large proportion of the electorate voting early, the traditional exit polling methods simply won't capture what that electorate looks like. Especially since early voters and election day voters are often very different (as evidenced by Obama's early vote leads in states like Iowa and Ohio).

 

[RustyNails]

Keep Poligaf open. We can pass around the needles here

 

[Black Mamba]

internal polls don't leak.

 

[Brinbe]

Was wondering what was up with your post on Wrassle-GAF, I'm reading the two at the same time as well, heh.

Yeah! Damn tabs! hahaha 99 probs but Mitt ain't one?

 

[BertramCooper]

Welp, I have some bad news. I know someone who's father's ex-wife's gay brother's lover secretly works for the Obama campaign and he has stated that Obama is down by 3 points in Ohio, 2 in Penn, and 1 in Virginia

 

[worldrunover]

Mittens will be president tomorrow. America's sons will be sent into Syria to fight. 3 wars people. Repubs love invading other countries for giggles and Iran is next

I'll bet you a million dollars Mitt won't be president tomorrow.

Spoiler

He'll be president on Jan 20

 

[Incognito]

all the low-info voters in the OT severely constrain my ability to carry on a reasonable discussion

 

[Deleted member 47027]

My big question come election day is, how are the exit polls being conducted?

With such a large proportion of the electorate voting early, the traditional exit polling methods simply won't capture what that electorate looks like. Especially since early voters and election day voters are often very different (as evidenced by Obama's early vote leads in states like Iowa and Ohio).

Yeah. And that's a question I can't answer. There's the people that are either living vicariously through someone else's politics and voting early (stop doing that!) or they're extremely energized and know their vote counts - then there's the large amount of citizens that don't even THINK about early voting, and just assume "welp, Election Day. Let's go." and never go that route. And to be honest, I think the "uhhh...I just vote on Election Day, isn't that always how it is?" are heavier Republicans because we're pretty set in our ways and pretty oblivious about better ways to do things

 

[GregLombardi]

all the low-info voters in the OT severely constrain my ability to carry on a reasonable discussion

Still...no reason for 2 threads for tomorrow night. I don't know. I don't want to be checking two places!

Does everyone think that Election 2012 will crash GAF like a Nintendo conference might?

 

[el retorno]

http://www.barackobama.com/live Jay-Z on now in Columbus. P. funny to see him performing PSA and keeping it clean.

"99 problems but Mitt ain't one" lol

edit: a bitch got through

 

[Angry Grimace]

internal polls don't leak.

I have doubts that campaigns actually bother with credible internal polling any more, moreover, internal polls don't run polls on the last day before the election, they run them over a week out because they need to know where to buy ad time.