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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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Kai Dracon

Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
fucking shame that the Republicans have to find a way to avoid looking inside themselves

Republicans long ago sold their souls to the Moral Majority and the Religious Reich extremists. They're in too deep to back out of the deal now. Their allies brook no compromise, no sign of "moral" weakness, like admitting you were wrong about something and that views can change. Undying eternal truth and unquestioning certitude are their bedrocks. They see the "reality based community" as the enemy.

At this point, in the long run, the party may very well go down with the ship.

The sooner people who claim they're "normal" conservatives who just care about the economy and shit realize this instead of turning a blind eye to the party they're giving their loyalty to, the better.
 
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Deleted member 47027

Unconfirmed Member
The sooner people who claim they're "normal" conservatives who just care about the economy and shit realize this instead of turning a blind eye to the party they're giving their loyalty to, the better.

I'd like to see the Tea Party branch out a bit and get even more extreme and give rise to a more sensible Republican party, one that actually makes more sense in general and maybe has some fringe issues, as opposed to one that (imho) has some very good nationwide and foreign policies that aren't based on hatemongering and turning this nation around better, fiscally.
 

Amir0x

Banned
I do think the polls aren't nearly accurate enough, but I won't say the election is stolen on Wednesday. I think our entire polling system needs to be fixed in a major way. I don't think there's a huge amount of chicanery above the norm, but I also don't trust it nearly enough. I'm sure most people feel the same way.

Historically, though, polls are pretty accurate indeed, particularly if you have a lot of them showing one particular thing. We have a huge amount of polls, and they all paint the same picture. So what is it about polls that you think "need to be fixed in a major way", and is it based on anything other than your gut feeling?
 

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
WTF......

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Deleted member 47027

Unconfirmed Member
Historically, though, polls are pretty accurate indeed, particularly if you have a lot of them showing one particular thing. We have a huge amount of polls, and they all paint the same picture. So what is it about polls that you think "need to be fixed in a major way", and is it based on anything other than your gut feeling?

They need to be far more transparent about who they're polling - though some of that isn't the polls' fault. The thing is, either side can spin them very easily and make them blow past most peoples' eyes who don't bother looking any deeper. That's all I really meant by it - they're nebulous at times of exactly who is being polled, and I think that's just an issue with polls in general.
 

Amir0x

Banned
Also: Someone should make an early PoliGAF topic now, or else we'll be scrambling in the middle of Election Day fever to get a new one up. Posts are going to be coming a mile a minute tomorrow.
 
Also: Someone should make an early PoliGAF topic now, or else we'll be scrambling in the middle of Election Day fever to get a new one up. Posts are going to be coming a mile a minute tomorrow.

Do you think it should be a Poligaf thread or just forced into the Election OT in the OT?
 

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
They need to be far more transparent about who they're polling - though some of that isn't the polls' fault. The thing is, either side can spin them very easily and make them blow past most peoples' eyes who don't bother looking any deeper. That's all I really meant by it - they're nebulous at times of exactly who is being polled, and I think that's just an issue with polls in general.

They do say who they're polling
 
Also: Someone should make an early PoliGAF topic now, or else we'll be scrambling in the middle of Election Day fever to get a new one up. Posts are going to be coming a mile a minute tomorrow.

Ok, I already have the correct topic:

POLIGAF |OT| The Dream is Dead, Romney's Reign Of Terror Begins... NOW!
 
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Deleted member 47027

Unconfirmed Member
They do say who they're polling

Yeah, and people like yourself or I have no issues picking up on that - but I just think in general they need to be more transparent, so I don't get texts from friends saying the sky is falling or the world is bitchin' because their poll of choice stated X.
 

Amir0x

Banned
Sunflower said:
They need to be far more transparent about who they're polling - though some of that isn't the polls' fault. The thing is, either side can spin them very easily and make them blow past most peoples' eyes who don't bother looking any deeper. That's all I really meant by it - they're nebulous at times of exactly who is being polled, and I think that's just an issue with polls in general.

I guess I still am wondering how you mean. Most polls break it down extensively - male or female, Democrat, Republican or Independent, hispanic, white, or African American, etc - and then tell us how many respondents went for each candidate based on whether they are likely to vote, or if they're just registered to vote.

What data would you like to see included that is not already included in almost every poll?

Sunflower said:
Yeah, and people like yourself or I have no issues picking up on that - but I just think in general they need to be more transparent, so I don't get texts from friends saying the sky is falling or the world is bitchin' because their poll of choice stated X.

They release pdf files showing every single data point!
 

pigeon

Banned
I'll just put out there what everyone knows - because they aren't the actual internal polling numbers, they're made up numbers to convince the base they are winning.

There's a good chance they are actual internals, but that just doesn't mean anything. Internals have a worse version of the problem with privately funded polls -- you can safely assume the ones that get leaked are the absolute best-case scenarios for that candidate. But privately funded polls can't run twenty polls of the same state to get one outlier; campaigns can and do poll states that often. It's literally inevitable that Romney would have SOME internal showing him with a lead in Ohio for the campaign to leak; that's just a byproduct of the amount of polling they do. If Romney leaked ALL his internals and that was the MEDIAN, that would matter.
 
Also: Someone should make an early PoliGAF topic now, or else we'll be scrambling in the middle of Election Day fever to get a new one up. Posts are going to be coming a mile a minute tomorrow.

Wasn't it going to be POLIGAF |OT| A Thousand Years of Liberal Darkness ?
 

Amir0x

Banned
Do you think it should be a Poligaf thread or just forced into the Election OT in the OT?

PoliGAF has earned their own Election Day topic, I'd say. We've been here every step of the way :p

BrokenFiction said:
Wasn't it going to be POLIGAF |OT| A Thousand Years of Liberal Darkness ?

Yeah, the early consensus was

PoliGAF 2012 |OT6| Year 1 of 1000 Years of Darkness
 

pigeon

Banned
Yeah, and people like yourself or I have no issues picking up on that - but I just think in general they need to be more transparent, so I don't get texts from friends saying the sky is falling or the world is bitchin' because their poll of choice stated X.

Basically, you just want them to be less spinnable? I'm definitely down with that. Anything that might reduce spin is a plus for me.
 
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Deleted member 47027

Unconfirmed Member
I guess I still am wondering how you mean. Most polls break it down extensively - male or female, Democrat, Republican or Independent, hispanic, white, or African American, etc - and then tell us how many respondents went for each candidate based on whether they are likely to vote, or if they're just registered to vote.

What data would you like to see included that is not already included in almost every poll?

They release pdf files showing every single data point!

What I meant (and I wasn't clear enough earlier) is to make it more transparent for people who don't read the fine print - or even the not-fine print, but the braindead morons that don't actually process what the polls say.

There may not be a solution for that at all, however, because people are gonna look for what they want to see and spout it as fact. I guess it's a no-win.
 
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Deleted member 47027

Unconfirmed Member
We need an |OT| Republican Voter Fraud

This shit is getting ridiculous.

Can we have it "Voter Fraud OT" instead of specifying Republican? So many of those are hearsay and then picked up on outlets dying for clicks.

I have too much faith in people :p
 

Amir0x

Banned
How was the mood at the workplace today, Amir0x? Your co-workers still sure Obummer's done tomorrow?

Literally within 5 seconds of sitting down in my office I had Gary O'Toole and his friend rush in to YELL AT ME in the most obnoxious fashion over and over:

"Obama is down is Ohio.
He's down in Florida, in North Carolina.
He's done in Virginia, in Iowa, in New Hampshire.
He might even come near death in Pennsylvania!"

Then I informed him about the state of the polls, which he uniformly denied even existed, and then we started arguing loudly about Republican voter suppression efforts, to which they ended by yelling at my repeatedly about how early voting is against the constitution.

It got so heated that he tried to end it by betting me $100 bucks Romney would win, but I could not take that bet. I'd get fired for betting on the Election at work anyway.

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Final national ABC/WaPo poll:

50 Obama
47 Romney

http://t.co/3phkHRuL

Dat trendline
 

HylianTom

Banned
Obama now speaking in Ohio! Enjoy it, 'cause it's one of his last ones.. until he hits the campaign trail for the Dems' next nominee.
 
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