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[Aylinato]

Just got polled again...what is this poll me day?!?

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

The guy on the right I'm guessing is Jay-Z, but who's the dude in the middle?

 

[NewFresh]

The guy on the right I'm guessing is Jay-Z, but who's the dude in the middle?

I had to double-take at this.

 

[Agnostic]

The guy on the right I'm guessing is Jay-Z, but who's the dude in the middle?

I love it! lol

 

[Angry Grimace]

Is there any chance that the Dick Morris assertion is accurate? Are these state polls really assuming 2008 levels of voter enthusiasm for President Obama in their turnout models? Because they're not going to get that, if it is really true. I know there was an article debunking his line of reasoning, but I can't seem to find it at the moment.

Also, what about the argument that if an incumbent is polling below 50% he is destined to lose? I've always thought that made a lot of sense. Undecideds tend to break against an incumbent.

This is one of those stupid horseshit lines the McCain campaign started that somehow stuck around even though there isn't evidence for it.

 

[Krowley]

There is zero chance anything Dick Morris said is based in fact

Well, maybe not, but he's not the only one making that argument. Of course, it seems like everybody saying this is a right winger, but I can imagine a scenario where everybody over or underestimates enthusiasm by giving too much weight to the turnout patterns of 2008, which was an historic election, very different from the norm in a lot of ways.

 

[zero_suit]

The guy on the right I'm guessing is Jay-Z, but who's the dude in the middle?

You serious, man?

 

[RustyNails]

The guy on the right I'm guessing is Jay-Z, but who's the dude in the middle?

You better be trolling. Or else, BANNED. You're not worthy of polligaf.

 

[PhoenixDark]

In Columbus.

Bob Seger and Nas>

 

[MisterNugNug]

The guy on the right I'm guessing is Jay-Z, but who's the dude in the middle?

Bruce Springsteen.

 

[Black Mamba]

Well, maybe not, but he's not the only one making that argument. Of course, it seems like everybody saying this is a right winger, but I can imagine a scenario where everybody over or underestimates enthusiasm by giving too much weight to the turnout patterns of 2008, which was an historic election, very different from the norm in a lot of ways.

Pollsters simply do what the polling tells them. They don't weight based on 2008.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...2_vs_election_2004_eight_years_ago_today.html

Since I've been saying this is Kerry v Bush in reverse, take a look how similar. Bush and Obama with the same vote% too.

Actually, most of the polling has Obama over 1 right now and closer to 50% than Bush, but RCP doesn't use all the polls like they did in '04.

 

[pigeon]

Well, maybe not, but he's not the only one making that argument. Of course, it seems like everybody saying this is a right winger, but I can imagine a scenario where everybody over or underestimates enthusiasm by giving too much weight to the turnout patterns of 2008, which was an historic election, very different from the norm in a lot of ways.

As tliklabingpat noted, you're imagining this by imagining that polls work differently from how they actually work.

 

[Angry Grimace]

The problem with GOP spinmasters is that they basically slash Democratic turnout while mysteriously increasing GOP turnout significantly in order to prove their numbers are magically correct.

 

[Krowley]

This is one of those stupid horseshit lines the McCain campaign started that somehow stuck around even though there isn't evidence for it.

I've been hearing this ever since I started following politics, way back during the first Clinton campaign. And I've seen it happen in particular races (senate races, and all sorts of smaller campaigns, not just presidential), though I'm not sure how much statistical relevance it has if viewed across a wider spectrum.

 

[Angry Grimace]

I've been hearing this ever since I started following politics, way back during the first Clinton campaign. And I've seen it happen in particular races (senate races, and all sorts of smaller campaigns, not just presidential), though I'm not sure how much statistical relevance it has if viewed across a wider spectrum.

The McCain campaign relied on it heavily to try and discredit polling showing them massively behind in key battlegrounds. The gaps between Romney + Obama's totals to 100 don't necessarily equal "undecideds" either. Besides, likelihood of voting IS weighed in polls - they cut off voters who respond and are unlikely to actually vote. If they didn't, the polls would be massively skewed in favor of Obama since Democratic registration is a lot higher than Republican registration in general.

 

[786110]

The McCain campaign relied on it heavily to try and discredit polling showing them massively behind in key battlegrounds.

On a brief jump flight from Philadelphia to Scranton, McCain adviser Charlie Black and Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback came back to talk up the campaign’s conviction that the glass if half full. “Four years ago at this point, George W. Bush was down five points in Iowa,” Brownback said. “Today John McCain is down one point in Iowa.”

He was citing an unreleased internal McCain campaign poll of the state, which was completed last Thursday, said Black. (The campaign stopped doing its own polling after Thursday, he added, because television time through the election all had to be purchased by Friday.) However, public polls in Iowa suggest that McCain is still in a big hole. Last week, the Des Moines Register poll, which has a good record of prediction in that state, put McCain’s deficit at 17 points, with Barack Obama garnering 54 percent of the support.

“McCain is in a good position to win every red state,” Black said. “Plus he is probably going to win Pennsylvania and Iowa.” Polls have narrowed sharply in Pennsylvania in recent weeks, though Obama still has a sizable lead of 7 points in the Real Clear Politics average. Black said he had seen a poll recently that showed McCain tied in the Philadelphia suburbs, a crucial swing region of the state.

Read more: http://swampland.time.com/2008/11/02/mccain-camp-things-are-getting-tight/#ixzz2BOpmKvB5

polls

 

[Mike M]

I... I don't know who it is in the middle either...

 

[Angry Grimace]

Four years ago at this point, George W. Bush was down five points in Iowa,” Brownback said. “Today John McCain is down one point in Iowa.”

Read more: http://swampland.time.com/2008/11/02/mccain-camp-things-are-getting-tight/#ixzz2BOpmKvB5

McCain lost Iowa by 9.7 points.

 

[B-Dubs]

I... I don't know who it is in the middle either...

There is too far and you and Oblivion have found it.

 

[Thequietone]

This republican was on my campus today trying to convince students to vote no on (prop?) A1 here in California. I told him I was voting yes and he said but this tells you why you should vote no. Then he turns to my fiance and she says I already voted. The look on his face as he walked away lol


Anyways, besides the whole oh we don't have money to be spending on dumb animals why should I vote no? (I don't expect a real answer.) For those who don't live in Cali it's for spending money on the healthcare of animals in zoos.

 

[Oblivion]

You're dead to me

rly?

Wtf

What is wrong with you? Trolling CAN go too far you know. You need to leave. You're banished!

Why do you hate america?

You serious?

I had to double-take at this.

You serious, man?

You better be trolling. Or else, BANNED. You're not worthy of polligaf.

I done did it again.

 

[Vinsanity.]

I done did it again.

What's that dance called that Courtney Cox and Bruce are doing? Just curious..

 

[Mike M]

There is too far and you and Oblivion have found it.

In my defense, I never really cared enough about Springsteen to possibly recognize him in a candid shot on my phone when the only song of his I know is Born in the USA.

 

[zero_suit]

I done did it again.

Dammit
99% of the time, I would have known that you were trolling.

 

[RDreamer]

To be seriously honest if I hadn't really seen pictures of Springsteen and/or known he was traveling with Obama I likely wouldn't have known that was him.

In my defense, I never really cared enough about Springsteen to possibly recognize him in a candid shot on my phone when the only song of his I know is Born in the USA.

same

 

[Darkgran]

Got it, Dick. Lazy blacks won't show up. Also "motivated voters would swim through a flood to vote and in New Jersey they might just have to!"

Fuck this guy right in the ear.

He prefers feet...

 

[Mike M]

To be seriously honest if I hadn't really seen pictures of Springsteen and/or known he was traveling with Obama I likely wouldn't have known that was him.

Exactly.

 

[B-Dubs]

I done did it again.

Shit man, I should have known!

In my defense, I never really cared enough about Springsteen to possibly recognize him in a candid shot on my phone when the only song of his I know is Born in the USA.

Then you are missing out on a lot of good music sir.

 

[Mike M]

Then you are missing out on a lot of good music sir.

I REFUSE TO EDUCATE MYSELF!

 

[codhand]

I done did it again.

 

[Agnostic]

I done did it again.

Don't lump me in with the suckers.

 

[Xeke]

Who would be president if 100% of the country voted for Bill Clinton?

 

[Oblivion]

Dammit
99% of the time, I would have known that you were trolling.

In fairness, for a second or two I wasn't sure, but made the connection after seeing David Axelrod's comments:

“They can’t compete with Meat Loaf and Kid Rock, but they do alright,” Axe zinged, a sly poke at the GOP’s perennial lack of star power.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mhastings/the-last-24-hours-of-obamas-final-campaign

 

[Fox318]

Filling out my ballot now.

One of the public questions I forgot was on the ballot is really stumping me.

 

[BotoxAgent]

has Nate accounted Halo 4 in his model?

 

[B-Dubs]

I REFUSE TO EDUCATE MYSELF!

Then I will find you. I will find you and blare the entire Born to Run and Darkness at the Edge of Town albums at you for days at a time.

Who would be president if 100% of the country voted for Bill Clinton?

I dunno, but god I hope it would be Bill.

 

[Darkgran]

has Nate accounted Halo 4 in his model?

PANIC!!!!!

 

[Paches]

has Nate accounted Halo 4 in his model?

He also needs to add in the 7/11 cups poll.

 

[Oblivion]

Don't lump me in with the suckers.

My bad, g.


Also, has this been posted? Obama tyranny in action:

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/11/05/heckler-with-aborted-fetuses-sign-dragged-from-obama-event/

This is what awaits us in the next four years.

 

[Agnostic]

Who would be president if 100% of the country voted for Bill Clinton?

Romney/Biden 2012

 

[bob_arctor]

Big up to all of Poligaf. I follow this thread like a crackwhore does any form of monetary compensation. We gonna be some happy mofos come tomorrow night!!!

 

[GregLombardi]

What were people's thoughts on this article regarding the fact that Romney may actually be ahead tomorrow night before he's behind?

How long will Election Day last in Ohio?
Yahoo! News - 7 hrs ago

By Walter Shapiro

COLUMBUS, Ohio—Tightly knotted Ohio has become this year’s making-of-the-president state, pivotal to the White House strategies of Barack Obama and especially Mitt Romney. Amid all the victory hype by both sides, Republican and Democratic insiders surprisingly agree about the idiosyncratic rhythms and odd contours of election night in the Buckeye state.

Based on bipartisan interviews conducted with the promise of no-quotes-please anonymity, I have put together this likely scenario for election night return-watching in Ohio:

Around 8:30 p.m. (the Ohio polls close at 7:30 p.m.), the first big wave of returns will sweep onto the tote boards. These are the absentee ballots and early votes (maybe 35 percent of the statewide total of about 5.8 million) that the Democrats have been particularly aggressive in harvesting. At this moment, Obama will almost certainly hold his biggest Ohio lead of the evening in percentage terms.

That Obama margin will dwindle throughout the evening as the returns from Ohioans who waited until Election Day to vote are added to the total. By 3 a.m. Wednesday, when virtually all the statewide votes have been tallied, Romney may have moved into the lead. Does that mean that the Republicans can claim Ohio’s 18 electoral votes?

Not so fast. For in the wee hours Wednesday morning, the counties will begin their count of the provisional ballots. These are votes that have been challenged for a wide variety of legitimate reasons. They include: Ohioans who are not registered; registered voters who moved but failed to update their addresses; people who showed up at the right polling place but were directed to the wrong precinct; voters who did not bring proper identification to the polls; and those who requested an absentee ballot but decided to vote in person.

Before anyone shouts, “Voter suppression,” please understand that the bulk of these provisional ballots eventually will be counted. In 2008, around 80 percent of the provisional ballots were ultimately accepted and that figure rose to about 90 percent in the 2010 gubernatorial race. Recent Ohio history has shown that the provisional ballots tilt strongly Democratic when they are finally tallied. And that is what could make Republicans very nervous as Tuesday night flows into Wednesday morning.

The rough Republican rule of thumb is that Romney requires a statewide lead of, at least, 50,000 votes to survive the provisional ballot phase of the Ohio long count. The requisite election night margin for Romney may, in fact, need to be higher. It all depends on the number of provisional ballots plus valid absentee ballots (postmarked Monday or earlier), which are still in the mail. And despite the best efforts of the secretary of state’s office to release an accurate count of disputed and missing ballots Wednesday morning, the final numbers will probably trickle in from Ohio’s 88 counties over the following few days.

At this point, under some plausible scenarios, neither Obama nor Romney may be able to claim the White House without Ohio’s 18 electoral votes. Despite the whole-world-is-watching drama, events onstage in Ohio will begin to unfold at the pace of Freudian analysis.

Nothing will happen in public for 10 long days as the counties assess the validity of each provisional ballot. Finally, between the 11th and 15th day after the election (Nov. 17-21), counties will begin tallying the results from the accepted provisional ballots—unless, of course, there are further delays from legal challenges.

Small wonder that at least one Ohio election lawyer is already half-seriously worrying about his holiday trip out of state. No, not for Thanksgiving—for New Year’s Eve.

Now, from what I have seen on the ground in Ohio, the single campaign event that best emblemizes the micropolitics of the battleground state over the past few days was Obama’s late Friday afternoon rally at Lima Senior High School.

Incumbent presidents rarely come to Lima (pronounced like "lime" rather than the city in Peru). It’s a gritty, industrial town (population: 39,000) in a Republican county on the southern fringes of the Toledo media market. This is not a standard political destination—especially four days before an election.

Sure, Harry Truman whistle-stopped through Lima in mid-October 1948, promising in a five-minute speech from the back of his campaign train, “I’m going to take the hide off [the Republicans] from head to toe.” And Ronald Reagan, borrowing Truman’s Pullman railroad car and his itinerary, told a trackside rally four weeks before the 1984 election that Democrat Walter Mondale was “taxing my patience” and everything else.

But that was pretty much it until Obama got away from the railroad tracks to hold a full-throttle campaign rally here. Addressing more than 3,500 area Democrats, Obama highlighted another form of transportation as he declared, “Look, I understand Gov. Romney has had a tough time here in Ohio because he was against saving the auto industry.”

What mattered, though, were not the president’s words, but his physical presence. The Obama visit was designed to wring every last vote out of Allen County (Lima and the farmland that surrounds it), where the president received just 19,522 votes in 2008. The morning-after front page of the Lima News underscored the benefits of this small-town strategy: The Saturday front page was all Obama, and featured three photographs of the president and the banner headline, “BETTING ON HOPE.”

If Obama wins Ohio, where he has been leading in almost every published poll for the past month, Democrats have a three-part explanation. “The first reason would be the auto industry bailout,” said veteran Ohio political strategist Greg Haas, who now heads the Franklin County (Columbus) Democratic Party. “The second reason is the auto industry bailout and the third reason is the auto industry bailout.”

That is, of course, an exaggeration. Other pro-Obama factors include the fast-recovering Ohio economy (the statewide unemployment rate is down to 7 percent) and the politically successful demonization of Romney as a job-destroying businessman with Cayman Islands bank accounts and a disdain for 47 percent of the nation. In addition, an NBC News/WSJ/Marist poll, released Saturday, found that a whopping 73 percent of Ohio voters approve of the president’s handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.

But the revival of the Ohio auto industry is key. Not only is the venerable Lima Ford Engine Plant expanding, but so is the nonunion Honda plant in nearby Anna (Shelby County). After the Obama speech, Mike Knisley, from the local Pipefitters union who is president of the Ohio building trades council, gushed about the construction jobs that are being created at the Ford plant: “I’ve got 200 tradesman out there working right now.”

When asked about Obama’s long-standing problems with blue-collar white male voters in places like Lima, Knisley volunteered an explanation: race. “It’s the race thing that I just addressed with my apprentices last night,” he said. “I told them that they just had to get over it.”

As darkness fell over Lima late Friday afternoon, there was only one possible next stop for many Democrats from the Obama rally. It was the nearest branch of Kewpee Hamburgers, a Lima institution that is part of the remnants of America’s second-oldest burger chain. (Columbus-based White Castle is slightly older, but there is no comparison between the taste of cardboard and a genuine Kewpee burger.)

It was at Kewpee that I interviewed for the first time during the entire campaign the political version of the unicorn—a 2008 John McCain voter who is switching to Obama. Her name is Marcy Hughes, and she runs a branch library and lives in the nearby hamlet of Harrod. The mother of two sons (one studying at the Lima branch of Ohio State and the other recently graduated from college), Hughes is attracted by Obama’s support of the federal student loan program.

But even though her husband (who missed the Obama rally and dinner at Kewpee) is the type of small-business owner lionized by Romney, Hughes does not relate to the GOP nominee’s “You built that” rhetoric. In fact, she doesn’t relate to Romney at all: “I don’t feel that he’s for the middle class. And that’s what we all are around here.”

During what promises to be a very long night Tuesday in Ohio, I will be looking at the returns from the Lima area. And thinking about how the 2009 decision to rescue General Motors and Chrysler may well have saved Obama’s presidency.

 

[Fox318]

My bad, g.


Also, has this been posted? Obama tyranny in action:

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/11/05/heckler-with-aborted-fetuses-sign-dragged-from-obama-event/

This is what awaits us in the next four years.

Thats the same guy who ran onto the field during the reds-giants game.

 

[Oblivion]

Stolen from SA:

 

[Buddha Beam]

In Columbus.

Paul McCartney looks really good for his age!

 

[TiVo]

What's that dance called that Courtney Cox and Bruce are doing? Just curious..

The Carlton.

 

[Souldriver]

Stolen from SA:

Excellent!

 

[codhand]

Paul McCartney looks really good for his age!

yeah and will smith's kid looks a lot taller than when he was in karate kid

 

[kingkitty]

i'm watching OReilly, looking forward to Krauthammer's prediction. Karl Rove has a very clean forehead on HD tv.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Anderson Cooper just bit this poor girl's head off.