• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

Status
Not open for further replies.
H

HylianTom

Banned
Projections.jpg


Might as well post my unimaginative final prediction.

I give Virginia to Obama because I sense some movement to him there over the past week or so. That, and Virgil Goode is going to bump his odds up a bit.

I give Colorado to Obama because I tend to believe the theory that increased Hispanic turnout and voting margins could be somewhat under-represented. Colorado going for Obama due to this factor would be huge not only in the context of this race, but in the context of all races from here on.

Iowa is in Obama's column because there have been GOP rumblings about how pessimistic they are about the state. Combine with healthy early voting numbers.

Ohio? C'mon, man! Thinking that Obama will lose Ohio is akin to not believing almost all of the pollsters. It's an admission that you don't believe in any of the differemt methodologies that are used to arrive at essentially the same conclusion: that he's narrowly ahead. This thinking is either naive, willfully ignorant, or malicious.

Florida I don't trust. I do sense some movement towards Obama, but I'm not sure it's enough to finish the job. So I flipped a coin.

As for North Carolina? I think it's barely out of reach. I'd gladly be wrong about it though.

New Hampshire? Another state where we've seen the polls settle on a solid-but-narrow Obama lean.

It'll be a relatively early night, considering how allegedly "tight" things look. But there are so many paths for Obama that surely we'll see one of them plainly open for him by the time 11PM, EST arrives.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
RDreamer said:
Just got polled. Odd, isn't it a bit late for polls?

It was an automated one out of D.C.
Click to expand...

I got an email from the Obama camp after 8 asking me to make phone calls. A little late, but not too bad. When I worked at one of these survey companies, we made calls until 9 PM.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Tim-E said:
I got an email from the Obama camp after 8 asking me to make phone calls. A little late, but not too bad. When I worked at one of these survey companies, we made calls until 9 PM.
Click to expand...

Well, I meant like late in the election cycle not really late at night. I mean the election is tomorrow. What does polling now matter?
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Paches-EJ- said:
I am rooting for Obama to become a dictator in his 2nd term to make sure the republicans never get the presidency.
Click to expand...

Just remember: every four years, the electorate gets 3-to-4% less white. If the GOP doesn't change course - and soon - then they will go the way of the Whigs.

Obama doesn't need to do anything to keep the GOP out; time alone will take care of that.
 
C

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
My election party here in Boise starts at 8pm. Shit might be OVAH soon after that. I wouldn't mind getting any anxiety out of the way early and just getting blasted on our White House Honey Porter.
 
A

Aylinato

Member
HylianTom said:
Projections.jpg


Might as well post my unimaginative final prediction.

I give Virginia to Obama because I sense some movement to him there over the past week or so. That, and Virgil Goode is going to bump his odds up a bit.

I give Colorado to Obama because I tend to believe the theory that increased Hispanic turnout and voting margins could be somewhat under-represented. Colorado going for Obama due to this factor would be huge not only in the context of this race, but in the context of all races from here on.

Iowa is in Obama's column because there have been GOP rumblings about how pessimistic they are about the state. Combine with healthy early voting numbers.

Ohio? C'mon, man! Thinking that Obama will lose Ohio is akin to not believing almost all of the pollsters. It's an admission that you don't believe in any of the differemt methodologies that are used to arrive at essentially the same conclusion: that he's narrowly ahead. This thinking is either naive, willfully ignorant, or malicious.

Florida I don't trust. I do sense some movement towards Obama, but I'm not sure it's enough to finish the job. So I flipped a coin.

As for North Carolina? I think it's barely out of reach. I'd gladly be wrong about it though.

New Hampshire? Another state where we've seen the polls settle on a solid-but-narrow Obama lean.

It'll be a relatively early night, considering how allegedly "tight" things look. But there are so many paths for Obama that surely we'll see one of them plainly open for him by the time 11PM, EST arrives.
Click to expand...



I do agree it's either this map or the other map


I'm hoping for FL to get this thing called for Obama EARLY


Here are some awesome pictures for poli-gaf that I have collected over a period of time


JFKawesome.jpg


FDRawesome.jpg


teddyrooseveltVSbear.jpg





And one more for those who need some hopium


barack-obama-antar-dayal-poster.jpg
 
E

Eidan

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Nah, just Hispanics and young people deciding to stay home. I think black turnout will be very high; a few months ago I questioned this, but clearly he has re-igniting my demographic.
Click to expand...

Hm, not buying the low Latino turnout. Nothing I've seen makes me think they'll decide to just sit this election out.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Eidan said:
Hm, not buying the low Latino turnout. Nothing I've seen makes me think they'll decide to just sit this election out.
Click to expand...

Especially when the Latino Decisions polling outfit (among others) has consistently been pointing to remarkable levels of enthusiasm and engagement over the course of the campaign. I think that this could end-up being one of the biggest stories of the campaign.

Imagine the Republicans saying to each other, "Lindsey warned us!"
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
Have we decided on the new PoliGAF |OT6| vs using the Election OT in Off-Topic? Because I still think that latter would be better for myriad reasons.

The most important being that we can then tailor the PoliGAF |OT6| title to fit the outcome of the election
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Virginia going blue assumes Hispanic turnout will be high; same with Colorado. I don't believe it will be, thus I have Romney winning both states.
Click to expand...

With 11 weeks of tracking, we are headed towards a record level of Latino votes for a Democratic presidential candidate,” stated Matt Barreto, principal investigator for Latino Decisions. “If Latinos turnout at the high rates we are expecting, they could deliver Nevada, Colorado, Florida and Virginia to Obama,” Barreto says.

The poll finds 73 percent of likely Latino voters say they plan to vote for Obama, compared to 24 percent for Mitt Romney; 3 percent are undecided.
Click to expand...

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog...-is-high-obama-will-carry-4-key-swing-states/
 
R

RDreamer

Member
giga said:
Wait, FL is leaning blue!? I refuse to believe.
Click to expand...

Wonder if it's doing that based on the strength of polling for the popular vote.


Y2Kev said:
Florida is the one case where I do believe we are getting bad polling.
Click to expand...

I don't think it's bad polling. I just think there are so many shenanigans that if someone says to a pollster "Yeah I'm voting Obama" there are many circumstances like 9 hour lines that could get in the way of them actually doing it. I still give the state to Romney and hope to be surprised.
 
T

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
I'm assuming that the 8.6% is for stuff like the zombie apocalypse.

gcubed said:
538 putting FL over 50% for Obama explains the 90%
Click to expand...

That may be a factor, but I think it's more about the election being tomorrow and states like Ohio locking up.
 
F

Forever

Banned
I've been on the ground here in Florida in what is supposed to be a red county, and you'd be surprised at both the amount of Obama supporters and the intensity of their support. I've been saying it for a while; Obama can absolutely win this state.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
395 396 397 398 399
20K
2M
RDreamer replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher
338 339 340 341 342
17K
2M
UselessNapkin replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
396 397 398 399 400
20K
2M
ShironRedshift replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
393 394 395 396 397
20K
2M
Zaraki_Kenpachi replied
  • Locked
Poligaf 2017 |OT| It Almost Isn't Fair
9
4K
Bonen no Max'd replied
Top Bottom