Gucci Messiah
Banned
Ah yes, comment sections bring out the worst in people
PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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It's just barely, he's got Obama at 50.4% to win it. You may as well flip a coin at that point.
You will be wrong. Obama will win FL.
NullPointer
Member
Believe.
I just set my DVR to record FNC tomorrow. I recommend you all do the same to wean off the hopium later this week.
Indeed. I've been posting over there for the past few days, gaining trust, letting them get used to seeing my name. My registration date is over 4 years old, so they won't root me out easily.
Black Mamba
Member
Obama leads in most of the polls in Florida released in November. At least among those on 538. Couple ties too plus the national election movement.
Mgoblue201
Won't stop picking the right nation
Obama is up by 0.5% in adjusted polling average, which takes into account things like national trends and house effects. The positive move toward Obama in national polls probably accounts for most of this. Also, it's more like a tossup than a lean.
ErasureAcer
Banned
52.5 percent election day. 52.2 percent today.
I just wish Obama's campaign highlighted those accomplishments more. I don't think this race would have been nearly as close had the Obama of 2008 came back and drove home all he's done.
At the very least we're gonna make them count this shit for days.
Still not much better than a coin toss.
Being wrong hasn't seemed to tarnish your reputation.
I agree. It's also encouraging (although some what anecdotal), that we are seeing people itching to vote in the area. I think it will be very close, but will ultimately go blue.
Sorry dude, but you're bananas.
Indeed. I've been posting over there for the past few days, gaining trust, letting them get used to seeing my name. My registration date is over 4 years old, so they won't root me out easily.
At what moment do you storm out of the Trojan Horse?
Fortunately, from a political prognostication perspective, PD has no reputation on the line because it was buried long ago under an untold number of failed predictions.
PhoenixDark
Banned
When have I been wrong, outside of Avatar and Hillary losing the primary? I'm one of the most accurate prognosticators on the internet (not counting those that do it for a living)
Romney 315 Obama 223
http://washingtonexaminer.com/baron...ney-wins-handily/article/2512470#.UJUNnMXA_Lt
Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don't mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/baron...ney-wins-handily/article/2512470#.UJUNnMXA_Lt
Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don't mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.
It's sad how oblivious to facts people are :X
This is what I'm debating internally.
I'm thinking of playing a long game where I attempt to convince them to never, ever compromise in exchange for electoral viability.
Black Mamba
Member
Hahaha PD gets his talking points from drudge. Hahahaha
Anyway silver said Obama gained 1.5 in national polls today. Gallup was four. This is a big shift.
Kai Dracon
Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
Shit like that rocks Poe's law so fucking hard. I did say goddamn.
It's SO HARD, even based on the experience I have with people like that, to not believe a lot of those people are professional trolls riling up the conservative webspace for their own enjoyment.
The way they're framing stuff is more or less a perfect mirror projection - assigning all the attributes of the right's low information voters, with their "gut feelings" and religious-messianic attachment to their icons and hopefuls. Meanwhile over here in reality-land, I don't think I've ever met a single democratic leaning person who is not very worried about Romney winning, or who thinks Obama has it easy. Much less Obama is a "messiah".
On the other hand, maybe every word they say is typed in true faith. After all, the Fox news and right wing radio consortium has been trying to frame Obama since day one as a "new age religious movement" for whatever reasons. Perhaps as a way to help throw a scare into conservative religious voters - rile up an extra reason to fear Obama's otherness. He's not just a black muslim gay socialist - he's a new age pagan religion too!
My prediction from two months ago was every '08 state but Indiana. NC looks like it's Romney's, but still close enough that a good GOTV effort can turn the tide by just enough. Unlikely, but not impossible.
Florida, however, has been going in Obama's direction for the past week or so. I believe he will win the state by a point over Romney.
He also posted something earlier that was straight from one of the first posts on Free Republic.
SpeedySwaf
Member
I shouldn't do this, but...
You were also wrong about Inception, and I'm pretty sure during the debt-ceiling fiasco, you said Obama would throw the EPA and Planned Parenthood under the bus.
Also, summer would be "The beginning of the end" for Obama, and you were sure Romney would be leading sometime in September.
Highest chance for the election day forecast maybe, he was up around 98% on the now-cast back before the first debate though.
NullPointer
Member
You actually made me snort when I read this, you wonderful bastard.
Thats it. I just blue myself.
brianmcdoogle
Member
What was his worst prediction, out of curiosity? Did he have a candidate at like 70% or so lose?
Same here. Weird.
Oh god, you guys need to see this. It's got me rolling, I might die :lol
From the election thread.
my prediction:
48 hour ban if I get anything wrong.
From the election thread.
Gucci Messiah
Banned
Might as well ban him now
ErasureAcer
Banned
Dude will be banned quite a long time if it's cumulative.
Randolph Freelander
Member
Forecast and Now-cast have also converged on everything except 24 hours.
SpeedySwaf
Member
I'm not getting my hopes up about Florida, but I would so love it for it go to Obama, if only to stick it to it's governor.
Either way, FL volunteers should still be proud of all the hard work they've done.
Either way, FL volunteers should still be proud of all the hard work they've done.
Oh god, we'll never see him again. :lol
The Librarian
Banned
Cyan, don't let the end of this election be the end of our relationship! We have to keep it going somehow.
Nate has no tossup color, but its listed as tossup
Hobbestetrician
Member
Nate doesn't have an equivalent of the white on Wang's map so my guess is that if he did, Florida would be white on 538.
edit: beaten
51*2 = 104 days. We'd seem him in three months.
Indeed. I've been posting over there for the past few days, gaining trust, letting them get used to seeing my name. My registration date is over 4 years old, so they won't root me out easily.
Haha, is that you? As Kaijima said, that is such a pitch perfect mirror of reality, it's hard to believe it's not a troll.
ErasureAcer
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