106 since he also failed to call the election. You know what I mean though, the dude just threw away his GAF account.
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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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106 since he also failed to call the election. You know what I mean though, the dude just threw away his GAF account.
Do you include NC as a swing state? Because I do. And already beat you to it.
Gucci Messiah
Banned
Florida and North Carolina are gonna flip this year
PhoenixDark
Banned
Guess we'll have to agree to disagree.
Something does seem off about the dem ID numbers in multiple states. I don't think Romney will win a landslide but Ohio especially seems plagued by faulty polling
Pretty much similar to what I believe. *brofist*
I'm not all over the place over there, but I'm in there stirring things, gently. It's just a small handful of posts per day over the past few weeks - you can't even tell who I am. I've got the lingo and the issues down pat.
Things will really begin to heat up once this election is decided and the recriminations begin. That's going to be FUN!
platypotamus
Member
He only has it as a 52.5% shot for Obama. That's not much better than a coin flip, regardless of the color on the map.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Hey, I love Hard Times! Such a great restaurant. Didn't know the guy who ran it was an idiot, though.
did he/she confuse the colors with their respective parties?
Byakuya769
Member
You guys are taking opinionatedcyborg seriously?
Christie is a HUGE Springsteen fan, I guess his storm response earned him some respect from the Boss.
He's probably trolling, but damn if it didn't make me laugh.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
There's a lot of dehumanizing him, and a lot of attacking him for merely being wealthy (not the same as pointing out where he's out of touch). Nothing as bad as the racism.
speculawyer
Member
Wow! That first one is amazing. It is like the Bizarro-PolliGAF. Let me make the GAF version of the post:
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Meanwhile, over at Free Republic, they are predicting Romney wins HANDILY, and Dems LOSE 4 Senate Seats, as many House seats...
Simply delusional...
I think it's long been observed by folks on our side, that conservatives are immune to facts, logic, and reason.
While our side has been busy analyzing every single data point available in this race, and crunching the hard, documented numbers, conservatives have been clinging to little more than their faith in their vaunted messiah, and living in a self-validating echo chamber, eating pork rinds and beef jerky.
They've been listening to regime foot soldiers like Peggy Noonan, Glenn Beck, Dick Morris, Charles Krauthammer, Bill O'Reilly, and others. They've allowed partisan hacks like Sean Hannity to convince them that victory is assured, and that Karl Rove had it right, when he predicted a permanent conservative majority.
These people are going to experience a psychotic breakdown when the race ends in a quick loss against CEO Mitt and his sidekick Randian Ryan. If you thought they went nuts after Obama won in 2008, you ain't seen nuthin yet.
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There . . . I'll stand by that. Let's see what happens. I think the above is likely but at absolute worst, Romney would BARELY squeak out a big surprise victory. No one is getting any landslide.
At least now Obama can say his Republican support is large.
you better hope he gets more than one wrong
That's not really the same though. The attacks from the left HAVE been about his wealth but there are legitimate question about whether he really cares about those not in the 1%. You have Romney's 47% comment, he says he likes to fire people, and legitimate questions about whether he really cares about american workers or american profits. His time at bain capital is evidence enough that he cares more about profit than retaining workers.
The vitriol from the right have been vicious in it's hate about obama's religion, him being born in kenya, a foodstamp president etc...
Black Mamba
Member
Haha dick Morris explaining this on hannity. Even hannity not buying it.
Apparently democrats will blame GOP on suppressing minority vote. Haha pushing a narrative that dems will claim a stolen election.
Hannity has looked very smug and confident. How I wish to see devastation on his face soon.
Apparently democrats will blame GOP on suppressing minority vote. Haha pushing a narrative that dems will claim a stolen election.
Hannity has looked very smug and confident. How I wish to see devastation on his face soon.
DragonSworne
Banned
Which stations should I watch tomorrow?
I was thinking CNN but they are way to frustrating nowadays. Will MSNBC good? I want Maddow 24/7.
I was thinking CNN but they are way to frustrating nowadays. Will MSNBC good? I want Maddow 24/7.
http://dailycaller.com/2012/11/01/is-nate-silvers-value-at-risk/#ixzz2BPLuP3yj
Silver stormed onto the scene in 2008 when, according to his acolytes, he correctly predicted how 49 of 50 states would vote in the presidential election (he missed Indiana). Do not remind his disciples that of the four close states those with margins of 2.5% or less Silver only forecast three of them correctly. And definitely do not remind them that the polls in swing states correctly forecast all but two states (Indiana and North Carolina).
Silver stormed onto the scene in 2008 when, according to his acolytes, he correctly predicted how 49 of 50 states would vote in the presidential election (he missed Indiana). Do not remind his disciples that of the four close states those with margins of 2.5% or less Silver only forecast three of them correctly. And definitely do not remind them that the polls in swing states correctly forecast all but two states (Indiana and North Carolina).
BobTheFork
Member
A bit shocked at 538. I don't think Obama will get much over 300, if that. If you look at the bottom chart it shows 330 as the most likely outcome at around 20%.
No way he gets Florida right? I just don't see it.
No way he gets Florida right? I just don't see it.
I went shopping today for some pretty heavy-duty Election Night goodies. Lots of caffeine, carbs, sugar.. I'm going to be bouncing off the walls for most of the night, and probably weeping with hysterical joy when the big states are called. Gonna be fun!
el retorno
Member
I'm sure this isn't an original thought but why don't we yet hold an online vote, in addition to the IRL vote, even just as a "mock" vote? It doesn't have to count, take as many years as needed to run mock online votes right alongside the real vote, until we're all assured that the online system works.
omgimaninja
Member
I interpret that chart differently. While there is a 20% chance of hitting 330ev, if you add up all the outcomes between 270 and 330 there looks to be about a 40-50% of one of these scenarios happening. That's why I think the forecast of 314 seems a bit more accurate.
speculawyer
Member
Yeah, I'm wondering if that message was a troll. Because it was a very much like a flip-side of the PoliGaf argument. i.e. we are relying on facts & figures (538, PEC, etc.) and they are relying more on faith (literally).
I swear GAF if full of nothing but Masochists and Sadists.
DragonSworne
Banned
Chinese hackers
You know you'll be like the rest of us and be switching back and forth between all of them. lol
el retorno
Member
Don't judge until you try.
Black Mamba
Member
314 is basically splitting Florida up between the two by their probabilities.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Kinda on a tight budget so far this month. Dunno what I should eat/drink...Think I can spend $20-25. What should I get? Alcohol? Order in food? Just grab some chips/salsa and some pop?
but it is actually the real Drudge
PhoenixDark
Banned
I haven't seen a single person address this. This is going to be a very close race in multiple states, and Silver's track record with those isn't good
Randolph Freelander
Member
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