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[platypotamus]

Do not remind his disciples that of the four close states — those with margins of 2.5% or less — Silver only forecast three of them correctly

Why not? That means he essentially called 3 out of 4 coinflips correctly.

Calling 4 coinflips, you'll only be correct on 3+ of the guesses about 31% of the time. He only had about a 6% shot of getting them all right... maybe spot him a couple of points since they weren't completely 50/50.

 

[HylianTom]

Kinda on a tight budget so far this month. Dunno what I should eat/drink...Think I can spend $20-25. What should I get? Alcohol? Order in food? Just grab some chips/salsa and some pop?

I've decided to skip alcohol. Too expensive, and it'll end-up making me sleepy way too soon. The pop sounds good. And chips/salsa sounds reeeeally good; now you've got me regretting that I didn't go that route.. mm..

 

[Forever]

http://dailycaller.com/2012/11/01/is-nate-silvers-value-at-risk/#ixzz2BPLuP3yj

Silver stormed onto the scene in 2008 when, according to his acolytes, he correctly predicted how 49 of 50 states would vote in the presidential election (he missed Indiana). Do not remind his disciples that of the four close states — those with margins of 2.5% or less — Silver only forecast three of them correctly. And definitely do not remind them that the polls in swing states correctly forecast all but two states (Indiana and North Carolina).

This is actually a surprisingly reasonable criticism by conservative standards, in that it doesn't involve conspiracy theories and alternate universes.

 

[Cloudy]

This is really interesting. Top GOP pollster's view on the election

http://thepage.time.com/2012/11/05/...-todays-national-surveys-bill-mcinturff-memo/

This data – and the margins among non-white – shows the primacy of the fundamental question of the cycle to me which is: What’s the percent white versus non-white, and of course, the margins among both sub-groups.

Some perspective: Kerry lost whites by 17 points and Bush won by 2.5 points (and did very well among Hispanics, which has changed for the worse for Republicans since then). In 2004, whites were 77% of the electorate. Today, if whites are 74%, and Romney won whites by the same17 points and loses non-whites by 59 (19%/78%), that’s now a 2.5 point Obama victory instead. It is a reminder that at 75% white IF Obama can carry a 59% margin with non-whites, nationally, Romney has to win by closer to 20% among whites to win the national vote.

 

[el retorno]

PD's posts are so hard not to respond to. Must resist.... one more day....

 

[BobTheFork]

Kinda on a tight budget so far this month. Dunno what I should eat/drink...Think I can spend $20-25. What should I get? Alcohol? Order in food? Just grab some chips/salsa and some pop?

For $20 you could get some booze and decent snacks.

 

[Jadedx]

Don't judge until you try.

I have tried, I watched Fox a few times and I went to the blaze yesterday. You people are sick.

 

[Clevinger]

I haven't seen a single person address this. This is going to be a very close race in multiple states, and Silver's track record with those isn't good

What? Three out of four in a small, selective sample isn't good?

 

[Black Mamba]

I haven't seen a single person address this. This is going to be a very close race in multiple states, and Silver's track record with those isn't good

1. So be got 75% of the toughest to call states right.

2. What do the swing state polls say about the election if only two closest ones are wrong?

 

[Canuck76]

I've been pretty undecided throughout this whole thing but I've decided on Mittens. Overall Obama's term hasn't been terrible but its nowhere near good enough for a second term. What mittens is doing in regards to healthcare, and the economy i really dig, and the spending needs to be reigned in period

I still expect Obama to win, Romney's been too easily caricatured, and Obama has some more recent events (Osama, Sandy) in his favor.

But that's who I'm rolling with. I know most won't have a problem here but

EVERYBODY GET OUT AND VOTE

 

[Tawpgun]

Tim Wise, an anti-racism activist spoke at my school just now. Made a very interesting point.

He believes that this is the republicans last chance to lower taxes and end the "welfare state". Because with their current platform and ideaologies, and they demographics in this country, they will no longer be able to win a national election. Would explain how partisan and crazy they got recently. And apparently some republican official basically said this.

So, if they don't change their ideologies, they'll no longer be able to win. It'd be interesting to see if the republicans shift a little to the left, if the democrats will go further left.

 

[Touchdown]

oh crap he has it over 90 percent now??

 

[N Coward Parody]

#slatepitches

edit: also, he posted on Slate saying "never mind, changed my view during turnaround time"

Dave Weigel lives for attention. He's my least favorite kind of modern journalist -- snarky, condescending, always looking to make the story about himself rather than the subject. I removed him from my Twitter feed months ago and never looked back.

 

[Captain Pants]

PD's posts are so hard not to respond to. Must resist.... one more day....

No doubt. The avatar change is throwing me.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

The Anderson Cooper clip from earlier this evening with the Romney talking head

http://youtu.be/1AYR2gSFklA

 

[JCizzle]

Hey, I love Hard Times! Such a great restaurant. Didn't know the guy who ran it was an idiot, though.

Mitt tarnishing my school with his presence, smh. At least that was where POTUS unveiled Romnesia to balance it out a bit.

 

[AniHawk]

oh fivethirtyeight

florida is a slight shade of blue. virginia is likely obama. ohio is so blue it's off the tossup state list.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23dvaEwG-W0

 

[Clevinger]

What mittens is doing in regards to healthcare i really dig

What's he doing?

 

[jiggle]

I legitimately have no idea which state tomorrow will be the first to break. It could be Iowa since so many of them have voted already.

Possibly New Hampshire.

well this was in 2008
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=44007978&postcount=18658

Here are the times that states were called in 2008 according to this site I guess:

Time polls closed in parenthesis (if different from time called)


7pm EST / 4pm PST
Kentucky
Vermont

7:30 / 4:30
West Virginia

8 / 5
South Carolina (7)
Connecticut
Delaware
DC
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania (8)
Tennessee

8:30 / 5:30
Arkansas
Alabama (8)

9 / 6
Kansas
Michigan
Minnesota
New York
Rhode Island
Texas
Wisconsin
Wyoming

9:30 / 6:30
Georgia (7)
Ohio (7:30)
Louisiana (9)
New Mexico (9)

10 / 7
Mississippi (8)
Iowa
North Dakota
Utah

10:30 / 7:30
South Dakota (9)
Nebraska (9)

11 / 8
California
Hawaii
Idaho
Oregon
Washington
Virginia (7)

11:30 / 8:30
Arizona (9)
Florida (8)
Colorado (9)
Nevada (10)

1am / 10
Alaska

2 / 11
Indiana (7)
Montana (10)

Later
North Carolina (8:30)
Missouri (8)

 

[Sirpopopop]

Nice.

WELCOME TO NEOGAF MATT DRUDGE!

 

[HylianTom]

I have MNF on mute, and Romney looks constipated..

 

[jbug617]

Okay so John King said that the Obama camp is saying don't believe the early exit polls because they don't count early voting in those.

 

[Touchdown]

I've been pretty undecided throughout this whole thing but I've decided on Mittens. Overall Obama's term hasn't been terrible but its nowhere near good enough for a second term. What mittens is doing in regards to healthcare, and the economy i really dig, and the spending needs to be reigned in period

I still expect Obama to win, Romney's been too easily caricatured, and Obama has some more recent events (Osama, Sandy) in his favor.

But that's who I'm rolling with. I know most won't have a problem here but

EVERYBODY GET OUT AND VOTE

sarcasm?

 

[Amir0x]

haha CSPAN callers are always so funny

this guy says Romney has never lied at all all campaign, and he would know because he has followed his candidacy all the way back to the first Republican debates!

 

[Piecake]

Wolves make an awesome comeback to beat the nets, and now Obama has an even greater chance of winning? Awesome night!

Now we just need to shoot down those two amendments in Minnesota!

haha CSPAN callers are always so funny

this guy says Romney has never lied at all all campaign, and he would know because he has followed his candidacy all the way back to the first Republican debates!

Perhaps he goes deaf at select intervals?

 

[Loudninja]

What's he doing?

Well first he wants to destroy whatever Obama has in place, other than that no plan.

 

[Black Mamba]

I've been pretty undecided throughout this whole thing but I've decided on Mittens. Overall Obama's term hasn't been terrible but its nowhere near good enough for a second term. What mittens is doing in regards to healthcare, and the economy i really dig, and the spending needs to be reigned in period

I still expect Obama to win, Romney's been too easily caricatured, and Obama has some more recent events (Osama, Sandy) in his favor.

But that's who I'm rolling with. I know most won't have a problem here but

EVERYBODY GET OUT AND VOTE

Mitt Romney literally has no healthcare plan.

 

[speculawyer]

http://dailycaller.com/2012/11/01/is-nate-silvers-value-at-risk/#ixzz2BPLuP3yj

Silver stormed onto the scene in 2008 when, according to his acolytes, he correctly predicted how 49 of 50 states would vote in the presidential election (he missed Indiana). Do not remind his disciples that of the four close states — those with margins of 2.5% or less — Silver only forecast three of them correctly. And definitely do not remind them that the polls in swing states correctly forecast all but two states (Indiana and North Carolina).

I don't even understand the criticism here.

"Do not remind his disciples that of the four close states — those with margins of 2.5% or less — Silver only forecast three of them correctly."

Yes, with the very close races you expect to get some right and some wrong.

"And definitely do not remind them that the polls in swing states correctly forecast all but two states (Indiana and North Carolina)"

Yes, his model is based mostly on the polls so of course it will be similar to them.


Thanks Captain Obvious, Nate's 538 model is based on polling! You don't say!

 

[Raine]

I've been pretty undecided throughout this whole thing but I've decided on Mittens. Overall Obama's term hasn't been terrible but its nowhere near good enough for a second term. What mittens is doing in regards to healthcare, and the economy i really dig, and the spending needs to be reigned in period

I still expect Obama to win, Romney's been too easily caricatured, and Obama has some more recent events (Osama, Sandy) in his favor.

But that's who I'm rolling with. I know most won't have a problem here but

EVERYBODY GET OUT AND VOTE

What exactly does he plan to do in regards to healthcare and the economy that you like?

 

[el retorno]

Tim Wise, an anti-racism activist spoke at my school just now. Made a very interesting point.

He believes that this is the republicans last chance to lower taxes and end the "welfare state". Because with their current platform and ideaologies, and they demographics in this country, they will no longer be able to win a national election. Would explain how partisan and crazy they got recently. And apparently some republican official basically said this.

So, if they don't change their ideologies, they'll no longer be able to win. It'd be interesting to see if the republicans shift a little to the left, if the democrats will go further left.

This is true. Obama wins and his "socialism" and obamacare work. People are more willing to try more social democratic policies and not believe the lies about dems being socialists

 

[Brinbe]

That current 538 is all the hopium I need... great to see and a welcome sight after the thrashing my Eagles are taking at the moment. =)

 

[HylianTom]

Well first he wants to destroy whatever Obama has in place, other than that no plan.

"Hey, uhhh.. you know all that shit that got us into this mess in the first place? Yeah.. let's try that again."

Brilliant.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

I have MNF on mute, and Romney looks constipated..

"Thanks for having me here, I thoroughly enjoy watching rugby."

 

[SpeedySwaf]

Okay so John King said that the Obama camp is saying don't believe the early exit polls because they don't count early voting in those.

This is a given. I expect Romney to have a lead in exit polls, but the question will be if it's big enough to overcome the early votes already cast.

 

[Amir0x]

Perhaps he goes deaf at select intervals?

or he went deaf for 9 straight months or something

 

[markatisu]

I haven't seen a single person address this. This is going to be a very close race in multiple states, and Silver's track record with those isn't good

Its a good thing its not just Silver predicting them now isnt it

 

[Lemonz]

President Obama's very last rally coming up.

http://new.livestream.com/barackobama/Iowa

 

[Y2Kev]

This is a given. I expect Romney to have a lead in exit polls, but the question will be if it's big enough to overcome the early votes already cast.

I thought exit pollers will be incorporating early voters this cycle.

 

[RDreamer]

Just watched Bill Maher from the other day. Rick Lazio's an idiot.

 

[el retorno]

President Obama's very last rally coming up.

http://new.livestream.com/barackobama/Iowa

This is it. No more campaign Obama, at least for himself :-(

 

[Tamanon]

Romney's weird, almost nervous laughter, to even the blandest of questions was unsettling.

 

[BrokenFiction]

"Thanks for having me here, I thoroughly enjoy watching rugby."

I heard this in Jason Sudeikis' Romney voice. Ha!

 

[HylianTom]

Its a good thing its not just Silver predicting them now isnt it

And with different methodologies arriving at strikingly similar conclusions.

 

[DragonSworne]

"Hey, uhhh.. you know all that shit that got us into this mess in the first place? Yeah.. let's try that again."

Brilliant.

It will work this time because Romney is a better businessman than Bush.

He's not afraid to offshore low performing citizens to increase government profits.

 

[Scott32020]

This is it. No more campaign Obama, at least for himself :-(

I know a lot of people are saying this, but if Romney wins, he COULD try to pull a Grover Cleveland (very unlikely I know)

 

[ISOM]

I've been pretty undecided throughout this whole thing but I've decided on Mittens. Overall Obama's term hasn't been terrible but its nowhere near good enough for a second term. What mittens is doing in regards to healthcare, and the economy i really dig, and the spending needs to be reigned in period

I still expect Obama to win, Romney's been too easily caricatured, and Obama has some more recent events (Osama, Sandy) in his favor.

But that's who I'm rolling with. I know most won't have a problem here but

EVERYBODY GET OUT AND VOTE

With the name canuck I'm not sure if serious.

 

[el retorno]

I know a lot of people are saying this, but if Romney wins, he COULD try to pull a Grover Cleveland (very unlikely I know)

Romney isn't winning though

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Romney isn't winning though

Clearly, you haven't seen our internals. I mean their. Their internals.

 

[ErasureAcer]

For $20 you could get some booze and decent snacks.

Yeah. That I can. Skip ordering real food I guess. Now should I get beer or wine? Hmm. Think I'll go with wine.

 

[agrajag]

hey Poligaf. I don't know too much about politics, but I've been lurking in and reading this thread with great interest for the past few weeks. Waiting for the election results with bated breath. I have be at work until about 10:30PM tomorrow, how much am I going to miss from the TV coverage? How many states do you think will be called by that time?