platypotamus
Member
Do not remind his disciples that of the four close states those with margins of 2.5% or less Silver only forecast three of them correctly
Why not? That means he essentially called 3 out of 4 coinflips correctly.
Calling 4 coinflips, you'll only be correct on 3+ of the guesses about 31% of the time. He only had about a 6% shot of getting them all right... maybe spot him a couple of points since they weren't completely 50/50.