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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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A

Amir0x

Banned
hahah this guy

Host: "There is a senate race and, of course, the presidential race... how are you choosing?"
Guy: "Well I try to go with the facts. Sometimes, though, the facts get so overwhelming I just go with my intuition."

LOL

92.2%!
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
agrajag said:
hey Poligaf. I don't know too much about politics, but I've been lurking in and reading this thread with great interest for the past few weeks. Waiting for the election results with bated breath. I have be at work until about 10:30PM tomorrow, how much am I going to miss from the TV coverage? How many states do you think will be called by that time?
Click to expand...

Depends. Is that 10:30 eastern or some other.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Lemonz said:
President Obama's very last rally coming up.

http://new.livestream.com/barackobama/Iowa
Click to expand...

Oh man, this is gonna be so surreal. I remember back in 07/08, I don't think I missed a single stump speech or campaign rally over the course of the entire dem primaries and the general election. It was such an awesome part of each day, and although I didn't watch as much this cycle, I still loved watching the various crowds get hyped into a frenzy.

Having no more of that is gonna be so bittersweet, since campaign Bama is of course, best Bama. And I doubt anyone in 16, even Hilary, will arouse quite that same type of passion, intensity and hope.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Brinbe said:
That current 538 is all the hopium I need... great to see and a welcome sight after the thrashing my Eagles are taking at the moment. =)
Click to expand...
Have another hit courtesy of Sam Wang & election.princeton.edu

EV_history.png
EV_histogram_today.png


MM_history-unlabeled.png
EV_map.png
 
M

Mgoblue201

Won't stop picking the right nation
PhoenixDark said:
I haven't seen a single person address this. This is going to be a very close race in multiple states, and Silver's track record with those isn't good
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Sure, I'll bite. For one thing, Ohio, and most of the other states Obama needs to win, are outside of the 2.5% margin. Two, that margin is arbitrary. The one state Silver did predict wrong (Indiana) was much, much closer than 2.5% in his forecast. In fact, I think he had it within 1%. And those Indiana polls clearly showed movement toward Obama in the final weeks of the campaign; by contrast, polls in pivotal swing states are showing movement away from Romney.

Though Silver got the Indiana prediction wrong, he was basically right in saying that a good ground game could put it in Obama's column. Yet Romney needs much more than a good ground game to win Ohio and other important states.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Read Canucks post history before engaging.
Ami I haven't updated apreadsheet recently but will share what I have for sure. Feeling pretty good about going out on that limb for Florida back during the contest.
 
K

kaching

"GAF's biggest wanker"
DragonSworne said:
Chinese hackers
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That's why I said do it as a mock vote until we can fortify the process well enough against such attacks. Run it online regardless, in addition to the offline process. Let them hack, but also let us vote online through official channels like we should be able to in this day and age. Fall back on the offline vote if we must but don't simply forego online voting in the meantime.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
AniHawk said:
oh, and nate's projecting obama to win ohio by .4 more points than his model projected in 2008.

i couldn't find this information, because it wasn't in the competitive states tab.
Click to expand...

and his prediction model has never got a race where it was 90 or greater chance wrong even once, iirc...
 
D

DragonSworne

Banned
kaching said:
That's why I said do it as a mock vote until we can fortify the process well enough against such attacks. Run it online regardless, in addition to the offline process. Let them hack, but also let us vote online through official channels like we should be able to in this day and age. Fall back on the offline vote if we must but don't simply forego online voting in the meantime.
Click to expand...

Asking people to vote more than once will cause confusion
 
C

Chichikov

Member
Tawpgun said:
Tim Wise, an anti-racism activist spoke at my school just now. Made a very interesting point.

He believes that this is the republicans last chance to lower taxes and end the "welfare state". Because with their current platform and ideaologies, and they demographics in this country, they will no longer be able to win a national election. Would explain how partisan and crazy they got recently. And apparently some republican official basically said this.

So, if they don't change their ideologies, they'll no longer be able to win. It'd be interesting to see if the republicans shift a little to the left, if the democrats will go further left.
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I like Tim Wise but I think he's wrong on that point.
Minorities can fall for the allure of low taxes and the personal responsibility/limited government ethos just like white folks.
And there is not reason why the GOP can't peddle their merchandise without appealing to racists.

Now it's true, the GOP will have to go through some major and painful realignment, but in the long run, but once they realize they have to, I'm certain they will.
 
S

Smiley90

Stop shitting on my team. Start shitting on my finger.
Geopolitically speaking, does someone mind explaining to me why e.g. Colorado&Nevada are blue, and why Idaho&Indiana are red?
 
K

kaching

"GAF's biggest wanker"
DragonSworne said:
Asking people to vote more than once will cause confusion
Click to expand...
I'd like to think we could figure this out. Treat it like an exclusive "beta" early on if we must. Do the whole invite thing. Just do it and keep doing it until such time as it can officially replace offline voting.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Seems someone leaked the plans for Obama's TRUE intentions in his second term:

-Plans to make Kenya the 51st State.

-Creation of new cabinet level department dedicated solely to abortion.

-Dedicate the Freedom Tower to the memory of Osama Bin Laden.

-Nullify all current traditional marriages.

-Completely socialize the current medicare program.

-Amend first amendment to mandate citizens to choose between either Shariah Law or secular humanism.
Click to expand...
 
N

NewFresh

Member
speculawyer said:
I don't even understand the criticism here.

"Do not remind his disciples that of the four close states — those with margins of 2.5% or less — Silver only forecast three of them correctly."

Yes, with the very close races you expect to get some right and some wrong.

"And definitely do not remind them that the polls in swing states correctly forecast all but two states (Indiana and North Carolina)"

Yes, his model is based mostly on the polls so of course it will be similar to them.


Thanks Captain Obvious, Nate's 538 model is based on polling! You don't say!
Click to expand...

I love the conclusion. If the polls were correct, then 538 will be correct. If they were incorrect, then 538 will be incorrect....damn, all that deep thinking.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
More FR:

Remember: Dick Morris makes millions of dollars a year helping candidates and parties win world-wide. There’s a reason both Trent Lott and Bill Clinton hired him. If he, Michael Barone and Karl Rove say it’s gonna rain, buy a boat.
Click to expand...

lol
 
D

DragonSworne

Banned
kaching said:
I'd like to think we could figure this out. Treat it like an exclusive "beta" early on if we must. Do the whole invite thing. Just do it and keep doing it until such time as it can officially replace offline voting.
Click to expand...


We could develop a closed network that does not rely on TCP/IP and the backbone infrastructure that the Internet runs on top of.

This will ensure that outsiders can't tamper with the results.

Of course this would cost money (or more jobs being created :p)
 
C

Canuck76

Banned
Clevinger said:
What's he doing?
Click to expand...

I know what the audience is.

I could go all day debating with communist cadre in here. But i'd rather have some free market principles in medicare and health care than have it be all Government run, which obviously isn't terrible but obamacare isn't the way to go.

Modest regulation, and lower taxes on businesses is also going to help this country out.

I don't expect everyone to agree (quite the opposite) but I'm just dropping in, giving my reasons why and giving my prediction (Obama wins, a little tightly)
 
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