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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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SmokeMaxX

Member
This was discussed already right?
Gravis (Florida):
Before rounding: Romney 49.7%, Obama 48.8%, Undecided 1.6%

Have you paid attention to what's happening front and center? I don't even think we can fully imagine what the closed door convos must sound like. No doubt the state GOP is riding this wave as long as they can, if it turns out OH is the deciding state I can totally see this scenario being quite likely
Yeah- I see what they're trying to do, but I thought the courts kept telling them to stop. I don't see how they can cheat Obama out of Ohio without looking shady, but we'll see...
flipping virginia or colorado or florida is really important at this state, assuming nh and iowa are already on lockdown.
I actually hope that Obama has a contingency plan without Ohio in case something malicious does go down. It'll come down to NV, IA, and then VA or CO+NH.
 
Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences for the presidential election.

An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election.

Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were placed, and 1,122 respondents fully participated in the survey. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.93% with a confidence level of 95%.

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?

President Barack Obama 46.92%
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.56%
another candidate 2.30%
Undecided 4.23%


Michigan a tie? hahahaha wtf.
 

Gotchaye

Member
I'm sure a lot of people would agree with it or disagree with it depending on the wording of the question. People here are totally willing to agree that God controls everything and that everything is his will, although they're silent when a relative dies or someone gets into a car crash...

Right, but the fuss over the guy's comments isn't about the theology.

"It's all part of God's plan" isn't meant to be taken as saying that the thing that's part of God's plan is a good thing. The idea is that God's overall plan is a good thing - to make an omelet you have to break a few eggs. You hear it when someone dies unexpectedly, for example. It's a Job thing; things seem pretty awful, but God will see to it that everything works out in the end (possibly in the afterlife). But things still suck now, and nobody's minimizing that.

That's not what Mourdock was doing. He was pretty clearly not counting the rape as mysteriously part of God's greater plan; he's not trying to express compassion for rape victims. He's telling rape victims that if they get pregnant they need to regard that pregnancy as a good thing. It's not just "whatever happens is part of God's plan"; it's "you carrying this rape baby to term is part of God's plan and you better not try to change that". There's an enormous difference between saying that something that's already happened is part of God's plan (reassuring) and saying that someone has a duty to follow (what you think is) God's plan (authoritarian).

Edit: To be absolutely clear, the non-offensive use of "it's all part of God's plan" could be applied to the pregnancy, but also to the rape, and also to the later abortion. That's not how Mourdock's using it. He's since clarified that, yes, he really did mean it in an authoritarian way. Biology isn't random and so God specifically chose you to get pregnant, so you can't go against that.

Edit2: So I suppose I should also be explicit that I don't think it's fair to say that people stop talking like this when a relative dies. I don't think I've ever been to a funeral for a not-ancient person where the clergyman didn't talk about God choosing to call the person to Him. There's typically a lot of talk about us not understanding the reasons for that, but having faith that we'll all be together again later on.
 

Bowdz

Member
I'm curious how much Husted and his cronies are the topic of discussion deep in Obama HQ. Is there anything the Federal government can do to watch over the election and counting in Ohio to check for more overtly shady business?

Michigan a tie? hahahaha wtf.

Dick Morris' prediction is coming true.
 
are these mofos credible?

These are their last 4 Michigan polls:

10/22-10/23 47/47 Tie
10/5-10/5 49/46 O+3
9/12-9/12 46/44 O+2
8/16-8/16 44/48 R+4


Their polling is almost always an outlier to other polls conducted during the same time periods. That August poll is also the only poll conducted this entire year that showed Romney winning the state by more than two points, and the last one to show him with a lead.
 
are these mofos credible?

These are the guys that had Romney up 15 in Florida in August.

They weight their polls crazily. That florida poll had only 2% o the vote under 30 when it was 15% in 2008.

I'm dying to see the crosstabs of this one. Maybe only 3% black vote in Detroit!
 
These are the guys that had Romney up 15 in Florida in August.

They weight their polls crazily. That florida poll had only 2% o the vote under 30 when it was 15% in 2008.

I'm dying to see the crosstabs of this one. Maybe only 3% black vote in Detroit!

Look at the crosstabs of their last Michigan poll which showed Obama only up three.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Baydoun_MI_1005.pdf

Ages 18-30 3.28% (undersampled by over 12%)
Ages 31-50 15.17% (undersampled by almost 10%)
Ages 51-65 40.82% (oversampled by over 10%)
Ages 66 or older 40.73% (oversampled by over 11%)

African American 7.34% (undersampled by over 10%)
White 85.94% (oversampled by over 11%)
 
Obama really needs another big swing state, I'm not confident in Ohio's ability to have a fair election if it's close. I think CO is the likely pick up due to OFA but I have no confidence in Virginia, and NC/Fla are lost causes
 

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
If there's one thing I've learned watching electoral politics its that the one crazy pollster with insane numbers is rarely catching a scoop before everyone else. They're just insane.
 
Look at the crosstabs of their last Michigan poll which showed Obama only up three.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Baydoun_MI_1005.pdf

Ages 18-30 3.28% (undersampled by over 12%)
Ages 31-50 15.17% (undersampled by almost 10%)
Ages 51-65 40.82% (oversampled by over 10%)
Ages 66 or older 40.73% (oversampled by over 11%)

African American 7.34% (undersampled by over 10%)
White 85.94% (oversampled by over 11%)

See, I knew it. Their weights make absolutely no sense. It goes from "expect lower turnout" to "LOL ONLY OLD WHITE PEOPLE WILL VOTE"



Also, check out unskewed polls guy latest electoral map prediction!

map_unskewed_projection_10_25_2012.gif



The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 53.63 percent of the popular vote and 359 electoral votes to President Obama's 45.92 percent and 179 electoral votes.

He has Romney winning Oregon by 6. Is he an intentional troll?


michaeljordanlol_1.gif
 
Obama really needs another big swing state, I'm not confident in Ohio's ability to have a fair election if it's close. I think CO is the likely pick up due to OFA but I have no confidence in Virginia, and NC/Fla are lost causes

Why? Virginia is a statistical tie and Obama is closer in Florida then Romney is in Ohio
 

strobogo

Banned
I think any respect points over sincerity of non menace of Mourdock is somewhat mitigated by his press conference where he was on the verge of tears, upset that people were being mean and twisting words, complaining about people making it political before seconds later taking direct shots at his opponent, and completely standing by what he said and if anyone was offended, it was their fault for not understanding. I mean, the logic of "if you get pregnant from rape, it's god's plan" = "getting raped is god's plan" is pretty sound. I'm don't believe that was his intention. I do believe it has inherently unfortunate implications that can't be avoided. To blame the offended for being offended due to misunderstanding and political reasons is disingenuous and and weird. His apology was "I'm sorry you can't understand what I said", which isn't a good way to go about it at all.

He should have kept it to something like "I apologize to those offended for what I said. What I meant by my words was that all life is precious and I believe it should be treated as such, even under the worst of circumstances." The way his apology came out was like when you were a kid and you said something like "I'm sorry that you weren't fast enough to get here first" to your little brother when you took the last piece of cake. Or more accurately, one that I used when my teacher called my mom about me not turning in homework and saying the teacher lost it. And my mom making me apologize to my teacher: "I'm sorry you couldn't find my homework." Somehow I though that'd appease both of them, even though I didn't do my homework in the first place.
 
I think "No abortions, even in cases of rape" is just a difficult view to express in general. That's why politicians bend over backwards to justify it because they know it's a tough sale.
I'm not even convinced that most pro-life groups have reducing abortions as their primary goals. They constantly ignore anything that contradicts or disproves their main arguments and make stuff up or promote myths about abortion, contraception, women's health etc.
 

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Yeah, I don't get abandoning either of those. A little lucky and some ground work could win either of them.

What's the deal with the unskewed guy? Some wingnut that thinks that all the polls are secretly funded by Obama?
 

Smiley90

Stop shitting on my team. Start shitting on my finger.
See, I knew it. Their weights make absolutely no sense. It goes from "expect lower turnout" to "LOL ONLY OLD WHITE PEOPLE WILL VOTE"



Also, check out unskewed polls guy latest electoral map prediction!

map_unskewed_projection_10_25_2012.gif





He has Romney winning Oregon by 6. Is he an intentional troll?


michaeljordanlol_1.gif

Oregon? Seriously?
 

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Have you seen this map by unskewedpolls?

map_unskewed_projection_10_25_2012.gif


Obama has to fight to keep Oregon and New Mexico. He can't waste resources on Florida and Virginia!

Is he just some wingnut who thinks the polls are all bought and paid for unless they show Romney winning?

As for the whole MI nonsense, I can't figure out what the fuck is up with the pollster - from what I'm seeing on RCP the last four MI polls they've run have shown O+3, O+2, R+3, O+1. The R+3 result was in the middle of August when every other pollster had Obama up by a minimum of 5 pts. How does that make any sense?
 
South Carolina??? Lol wut. I need statistical evidence for that. That's one of the most racist and red states in the country only beaten by Mississippi and Louisiana
I don't have any stats on me but I seem to recall its trajectory was similar to North Carolina in that a rising minority population could soon make the state a toss-up. However Texas and Georgia are more attractive prizes so they get more attention whenever that discussion comes up.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=RHH

Posted this a month ago and won't change course now.

BELIEVE.
I would almost be willing to take a Romney victory if it were this map, just to fuck with everyone.

Especially if Romney won every state by just won 1 vote, except for Utah which Obama wins by 50 votes. Popular vote is an exact tie.
 

Lost Fragment

Obsessed with 4chan
I really hope that unskewed polls thing is just some complex sociological experiment on how people will believe anything if they want to believe it enough.
 

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Why is it so hard to predict the future? The fear of a Romney victory is killing me.

If it helps you sleep at night, realize that it would take several independently unlikely (but hardly miraculous) things occurring simultaneously for Romney to win.
 
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