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[Angry Grimace]

The fuck?

Norma McCorvey of the Roe v. Wade case had a religious awakening in the 90s and is now a hardcore pro-life crusader. I just found it very surreal to see a TV ad that has the line, "Do not vote for Barack Obama because he murders babies" in it.

They don't feel that miraculous when looking at some of these polls =(

Well, as I said, it wouldn't be miraculous for any particular toss-up state to go Red. It would be very surprising, however, given that there's no game-changing events between now and the election and given that Romney doesn't actually have the magic Mittmentum - his current strategy is just saying he does and hoping it will translate into actual momentum. The problem is that trying to create real momentum with fake momentum is that it blows both ways since there really aren't many legit undecideds by this point, even fewer of them that are slavish dullards who vote based on bandwagon mentality alone and because it motivates Obama voters to get out the vote as well.

 

[linsivvi]

LOL Romney's list looks like Obama's from '08, doesn't it? Might even be the exact same...

Not even close.

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/contriball.php?cycle=2008

 

[AniHawk]

They don't feel that miraculous when looking at some of these polls =(

which ones? the state polls that give him a lead, or the national polls giving him a lead?

 

[canvee]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203937004578076253372633058.html

It's comical how badly the GOP brass has grabbed onto the tax cuts for the top 1%.

Mitt Romney would have a much easier time of winning this election if he proposed a tax hike on the top 1% and reducing middle class taxes.

Already seen some comments on other sites saying that the CEO's are from small no-name democratic leaning companies lol

 

[Marvie_3]

Norma McCorvey of the Roe v. Wade case had a religious awakening in the 90s and is now a hardcore pro-life crusader. I just found it very surreal to see a TV ad that has the line, "Do not vote for Barack Obama because he murders babies" in it.

Yeah that's where I was at too. I just couldn't think of a better response to that video. :lol

 

[Rocket Scientist]

Not even close.

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/contriball.php?cycle=2008

So all this shit about finance heavilly supporting Obama was pretty much bullshit...? I could swear that I've read countless articles propagating some bullshit that Obama was finance's darling... Look at fucking McCain!

which ones? the state polls that give him a lead, or the national polls giving him a lead?

The only one that matters of course....

 

[Cloudy]

So all this shit about finance heavilly supporting Obama was pretty much bullshit...? I could swear that I've read countless articles propagating some bullshit that Obama was finance's darling... Look at fucking McCain!

I had to correct my post in OT cos I bought into that shit too lol

 

[cartoon_soldier]

I want PPP's VA poll to be a big dose of Hopium...maybe O49-R47

 

[AniHawk]

I want PPP's VA poll to be a big dose of Hopium...maybe O49-R47

it was o50-r47 three weeks ago.

 

[Cloudy]

I wonder if PPP doesn't underestimate Obama's support a bit. You guys know they don't dial cellphones, right?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

it was o50-r47 three weeks ago.

Romney has gained since then in polls.

 

[Angry Grimace]

I wonder if PPP doesn't underestimate Obama's support a bit. You guys know they don't dial cellphones, right?

They don't call me so its obviously an elaborate conspiracy unless they show my guy winning.

 

[Rentahamster]

So all this shit about finance heavilly supporting Obama was pretty much bullshit...? I could swear that I've read countless articles propagating some bullshit that Obama was finance's darling... Look at fucking McCain!

Uh, ok?

McCain 2008:

Securities & Investment $9,220,990
Misc Finance $5,532,333
Total: $14,753,323



Obama 2008:

Securities & Investment $15,798,904
Misc Finance $6,704,316
Total: $22,503,220

 

[codhand]

Wow, these people in Iowa really love Obama.

I mean I love the guy as much as I could love any politician, but these people are losing it!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=loDREbPOiM8#t=706s
"I shook his hand. He's got soft hands for a president."
"Yeah he's an awesome man."


hahaha

 

[Cloudy]

I bet Obama got more money from McCain from pretty much all industries. The proportion of big banks to other money is the contrast

 

[Link]

This whole Mourdock thing upsets me, but I don't think it's a worthy "October surprise" and the public will probably see the left's attempt to link him with Romney as a little desperate.

Desperate? Romney made a commercial endorsing him the day before, and says he still supports him.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=loDREbPOiM8#t=706s
"I shook his hand. He's got soft hands for a president."
"Yeah he's an awesome man."


hahaha

I love stuff like this because it reminds me there are normal people out there that absolutely love this man and it's not all wretched people who live in the Comments section of various websites. It is really strange/depressing how easy it is to forget that sometimes.

 

[linsivvi]

I bet Obama got more money from McCain from pretty much all industries. The proportion of big banks to other money is the contrast

Yep.

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/sectorall.php?cycle=2008

And you can find similar breakdown in the candidate comparison section.

He's just cherry picking stats to suit his narrative.

 

[Rentahamster]

Yep.

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/sectorall.php?cycle=2008

And you can find similar breakdown in the candidate comparison section.

He's just cherry picking stats to suit his narrative.

My "narrative"? lol.

 

[Zzoram]

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/

The 2008 lists look very similar too.

All it means is that while Barack Obama can appeal to all sorts of people while Republican candidates mainly appeal to rich investment bankers.

 

[nib95]

I read somewhere that the last 2 decades, every candidate that has won presidency also raised or had the most campaign money. Is there truth to this, and would Obama, if he won, be the first in a while to break the mould?

 

[Amir0x]

i think my #1 thing to do after Obama wins the election will be to go to the Unskewed Polls Comment section on their website and mock the shit out of people.

Similar to the way watching the Hillaryis44 people meltdown was hilarious.

 

[Officerrob]

I read somewhere that the last 2 decades, every candidate that has won presidency also raised or had the most campaign money. Is there truth to this, and would Obama, if he won, be the first in a while to break the mould?

The Obama campaign has outraised the Romney campaign. It's only when you you add in third party super-pacs that the Republicans have more money.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign-finance

 

[GaimeGuy]

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/

I abolutely hate how non-executive employees get lumped in with the PACs and executives for these campaign donation reports.

If I were to donate $500 to Obama, that would be tallied as a $500 increase in political contributions from Lockheed Martin. Which is completely disingenuous.

If I had a spouse who donated $500 to Obama, regardless of where she worked, the same thing would happen. My spouse donating to a compaign gets reported as my employer lobbying/bribing/contributing to that candidate. WTF.

 

[Drek]

An electoral college wrinkle that I don't think a lot of people have talked about, and that throws a monkey wrench in the 269/269 tie hypothesis:

In 2008 Obama/McCain was the first race to split Nebraska's vote since they went to a split districts model in 1992 (two EVs for statewide winners, one EV for winning each of the three districts). Obama only got one of the five electoral votes, the vote of the 2nd congressional district. They voted in current congressman Lee Terry (Republican) in that same election.

The only semi-recent poll we've gotten for Nebraska was done on 9/24 and has Romney up 51 to 40, by Weise Research. That matches up well with what Rasmussen and PPP both polled many months ago. But that same pollster gauged the 2nd congressional district in addition to their state poll. They found that Nebraska's 2nd district was a dead tie at 44/44.

So if we do see a potential run towards a 269/269 tie (namely NH going red) we might well see the city of Omaha dictate terms on who will be president before anyone else gets a chance.

Think about that. A single city damn near dead center in the middle of the nation deciding the next president.

 

[Ecotic]

Redistricting has largely made the prospects of Obama winning an electoral vote in Nebraska off-limits. The 2nd congressional district in Maine could be a problem, however.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Romney's internals in NV show him up a point apparently...that's why he is campaigning there. He might have bad internal pollster in that case.

 

[ErasureAcer]

Think about that. A single city damn near dead center in the middle of the nation deciding the next president.

Your post made me want to listen to Omaha.

 

[Black Republican]

Colin Powell endorses the Kenyan again on cbs

 

[The Librarian]

Romney's internals in NV show him up a point apparently...that's why he is campaigning there. He might have bad internal pollster in that case.

CS, honey, come on now.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

CS, honey, come on now.

The article http://ralstonreports.com/blog/my-column-why-romney-hasnt-surrendered-nevada#.UIkke6PhXFp

 

[gcubed]

Romney's internals in NV show him up a point apparently...that's why he is campaigning there. He might have bad internal pollster in that case.

Apparently we found out how unskewed polls guy gets his money

 

[Agnostic]

Colin Powell endorses the Kenyan again on cbs

I'm not surprised that a compassionate conservative endorses another compassionate conservative.

 

[Drek]

Redistricting has largely made the prospects of Obama winning an electoral vote in Nebraska off-limits. The 2nd congressional district in Maine could be a problem, however.

You mean the same district that Kerry won 52-46?

Miane's population is basically divided as Portland = first district, everything else = 2nd district.

That 2nd district includes a lot of liberals who live on the coast and almost all of the major universities that are all liberal hot beds (UMaine, Colby, Bowden, Bates, etc.)

Obama is also up by 14% in Maine. That's bigger than Romney's lead in Nebraska which has a much starker urban/rural split in it's districting.

I'm not saying that Obama will win Omaha. I'm just pointing out that Omaha went blue last time while electing a republican congressman and is, according to the one data point we have, a toss up at this point.

This isn't a statement that it will happen, just that it might, and it is one hell of a wrinkle for the 269ers to think about.

 

[Mgoblue201]

An electoral college wrinkle that I don't think a lot of people have talked about, and that throws a monkey wrench in the 269/269 tie hypothesis:

In 2008 Obama/McCain was the first race to split Nebraska's vote since they went to a split districts model in 1992 (two EVs for statewide winners, one EV for winning each of the three districts). Obama only got one of the five electoral votes, the vote of the 2nd congressional district. They voted in current congressman Lee Terry (Republican) in that same election.

The only semi-recent poll we've gotten for Nebraska was done on 9/24 and has Romney up 51 to 40, by Weise Research. That matches up well with what Rasmussen and PPP both polled many months ago. But that same pollster gauged the 2nd congressional district in addition to their state poll. They found that Nebraska's 2nd district was a dead tie at 44/44.

So if we do see a potential run towards a 269/269 tie (namely NH going red) we might well see the city of Omaha dictate terms on who will be president before anyone else gets a chance.

Think about that. A single city damn near dead center in the middle of the nation deciding the next president.

Isn't a tie possible only if Romney captures every single Nebraska electoral vote? That's what I'm getting even in the improbable scenario that Romney takes OH, NH, NV, FL, VA, and IA, while Obama captures CO and WI.

Romney's internals in NV show him up a point apparently...that's why he is campaigning there. He might have bad internal pollster in that case.

Romney has only led in a single NV poll once all year, and that was within a week of the first debate. I don't blame him for trying to contest the state, but I would be surprised if he honestly believes that he's winning there. That would be an enormous mistake.

 

[nib95]

The Obama campaign has outraised the Romney campaign. It's only when you you add in third party super-pacs that the Republicans have more money.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign-finance

Super pac donations still count though right? End of the day Romney's camp gave more in total to spend, or is that inaccurate?

 

[The Librarian]

The article http://ralstonreports.com/blog/my-column-why-romney-hasnt-surrendered-nevada#.UIkke6PhXFp

Dear, if you look at a map of Nevada, I think you'll realize just how hard it is for Romney to win there.

Break it down county by county. Then look at Clark county.

Clark county represents 72% of Nevada's population. In 2008, the county provided 67% (two-thirds) of the votes for the state. If you win that county by a big enough margin, you only need to win that county, and thus win the state.

And what is happening in Clark county this election cycle?

Early voting numbers continue to come in from across the battleground states, and the numbers look good for Obama in Nevada. As mentioned yesterday, Nevada is a state where the early voting numbers matter, since Romney's chances depend, at least in part, on a poor Democratic turnout. But the early vote numbers suggest he'll need to win plenty of Democrats, since they're not staying home. More than 20 percent of Nevada's eventual electorate has probably already cast ballots and the Obama campaign is running up the score in Las Vegas' Clark County, home to 70 percent of the state's population. Democrats now lead by 23,000 votes in Clark County, more than one-fifth of their 90,000 vote registration lead.

 

[Oblivion]

Colin Powell endorses the Kenyan again on cbs

Treasonous bastard.

 

[Officerrob]

Super pac donations still count though right? End of the day Romney's camp gave more in total to spend, or is that inaccurate?

It all depends on how you are measuring.

 

[codhand]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Our new Virginia poll for @HCAN finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51-46 there: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-lead-in-virginia-up-to-5-points.html

…

 

[Black Republican]

PPP Virginia

Obama 51%
Romney 46%

 

[Officerrob]

PPP Virginia

Obama 51%
Romney 46%

Holy shit

 

[The Librarian]

Virginia coming home.

 

[Cheebo]

I have no way to chicken little that.

Awesome poll.

 

[Y2Kev]

PPP Virginia

Obama 51%
Romney 46%

The fuck. How?

Someone unskew that shit. Pigeon, black mamba, go.

Maybe Virginia saw the debate and was like, "we're not sure Romney knows what a navy is."

This is a 3 pt bump from the last ppp...

 

[Black Republican]

Foreign Policy debate def helped in VA atleast, makes sense.

 

[Officerrob]

The fuck. How?

Obama's net favorability in Virginia is up 7 pts and Mitt Romney's is down 7 pts from our last poll:

That's how

 

[Cheebo]

Wasn't the media writing off Virginia this week saying its locked to go Romney?

 

[The Librarian]

That's how

ur not anihawk

 

[Ecotic]

So many opportune States, so little time.