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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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RDreamer

Member

Opiate

Member
Yeah, but Obama wasn't going to win the south electorally anyway. So it's probably a decent poll for him.

Seems like that's what's going on with these national polls. The south is going to come out in full force against him, but the electoral collage blunts that force.

I think the point was that the crosstabs were reasonable. The South does indeed have ~38% of the US Populace, and growing. Further, the Midwest and Northeast are both losing relative population over time, while the South and West grow.
 
I think the point was that the crosstabs were reasonable. The South does indeed have ~38% of the US Populace, and growing. Further, the Midwest and Northeast are both losing relative population over time, while the South and West grow.
In other words, bad news for Obama.
 

nib95

Banned
In other words, bad news for Obama.

Over the years, has the South voted more or less in favour of Republican? I'd have thought with changing demographics, despite an increase in population, it might not necessarily all be adding to just pro red. But I'm not really sure. Hope it's not the opposite..
 

Ecotic

Member
was that AP/gfk poll conducted after the debate? if so, suggests perhaps that obama's bounce has already faded.
No it's Friday to Tuesday, so only a small portion is after the debate. The AP always posts polls in a late fashion, everyone else is releasing polls today that were taken after the debate, but they're releasing last week's numbers.
 

Touchdown

Banned
PPP Virginia

Obama 51%
Romney 46%


tumblr_mc4cchGxPy1rntezlo1_400.gif
 

pigeon

Banned
The fuck. How?

Someone unskew that shit. Pigeon, black mamba, go.

Maybe Virginia saw the debate and was like, "we're not sure Romney knows what a navy is."

This is a 3 pt bump from the last ppp...

The first thing I noticed is that the poll suggests Obama will win 300 EVs, which is obviously impossible since Romney has the momentum. So I think you can safely discount it.

No, seriously, even with HCAN funding, in context of the other VA polls recently this suggests a large lead. 4 points or so. Gotta be the debate reversal. See if it lasts two weeks.
 

Dude Abides

Banned
Over the years, has the South voted more or less in favour of Republican? I'd have thought with changing demographics, despite an increase in population, it might not necessarily all be adding to just pro red. But I'm not really sure. Hope it's not the opposite..

Before 2008, when Obama won VA, NC, and FL, the last time a Confederate state voted Democratic was 1996.
 

Brinbe

Member
Still standing strong by the EV prediction I made earlier this month.

ug8wz.png


Feelin' good, son.

Yep, that's what I have too. VA, baby!

There is a new national AP poll that shows Romney leading 47-45

http://ap-gfkpoll.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/AP-GfK-Poll-October-2012-Topline_POLITICS.pdf

All the crosstabs looked decent, until I got to the very end and saw this:

Census Region:
Northeast: 18%
Midwest: 22%
South: 38%
West: 22%
Seriously, that's the only thing that can explain a fucking Romney lead when the POTUS' overall approval is above 50%. Fucking ridiculous.
 

gcubed

Member
Yeah, but Obama wasn't going to win the south electorally anyway. So it's probably a decent poll for him.

Seems like that's what's going on with these national polls. The south is going to come out in full force against him, but the electoral collage blunts that force.

the issue isn't with winning the EC, its the pop vote. The problem is that Obama isn't winning his strong states by as much as he did in 2008 while Romney is winning the strong R states by more then McCain in 2008.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Did Obama really call Romney a bullshitter?

That plays well to a college and teenager crowd, but I honestly can't imagine that getting anything but negative press outside of the internet. Looks about as presidential as his sarcastic replies in the last couple debates...

(and yes, it is obvious that Romney is in fact a bullshitter, but come on, Mr. President!)
 
Colin Powell endorses Obama
(CNN) - Former Secretary of State Colin Powell said Thursday he's endorsing President Barack Obama for a second time, saying he was "uncomfortable" with Mitt Romney's views on foreign policy.

"I voted for him in 2008, and I plan to stick with him in 2012," Powell said on CBS' "This Morning." "And I'll be voting for he and for Vice President Joe Biden next month."

– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

Powell made headlines when the former George W. Bush administration official, who also worked for President Ronald Reagan and President George H.W. Bush, crossed party lines and supported Obama last cycle.

The Republican said he believes the economy is "starting to pick up" and attributed the recovery to the president's polices, citing specifically the auto industry bailout and Obama's economic proposals. "Generally we've come out of the dive and we're starting to gain altitude," he said.

Powell added he was "uncomfortable" with Mitt Romney's tax plans and views on foreign policy. Pointing to Monday night's final presidential debate, Powell argued the GOP nominee had changed his positions on the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The former secretary of state said he was concerned with the advice Romney was getting from campaign staff members.

"I think there are some very, very strong neo-conservative views that are presented by the governor that I have some trouble with," Powell said, though he did not elaborate on which views.

"I also saw the president get us out of one war, start to get us out of a second war and did not get us into any new wars," he said.

Powell added he was pleased with the Obama administration's views on climate change, health care, immigration and education. As for the rising federal debt, he faulted Congress for failing to reach a "grand bargain" on a deficit-reduction plan.

"This is work the Congress is supposed to be doing," he said. "Why can't they up on the Hill start talking to one another, reach across the aisle? But it will take great presidential leadership."

Asked if he was still a Republican, Powell said he still claimed the GOP as his political home. "Yes I think I'm a Republican of a more moderate mold, and that's something of a dying breed, I'm sorry to say."
Edit: Beaten like Hillary in state dept dungeons
 

Tim-E

Member
Did Obama really call Romney a bullshitter?

That plays well to a college and teenager crowd, but I honestly can't imagine that getting anything but negative press outside of the internet. Looks about as presidential as his sarcastic replies in the last couple debates...

(and yes, it is obvious that Romney is in fact a bullshitter, but come on, Mr. President!)

I doubt it's going to get any attention outside of political circles. Obama swears like a sailor on the Dreams from my Father audiobook and no one cared.

Edit:
Here's a (cropped) example:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJrXlHBDGU4
 
Did Obama really call Romney a bullshitter?

That plays well to a college and teenager crowd, but I honestly can't imagine that getting anything but negative press outside of the internet. Looks about as presidential as his sarcastic replies in the last couple debates...

(and yes, it is obvious that Romney is in fact a bullshitter, but come on, Mr. President!)

I think you're overestimating the impact of this by quite a large margin.
 

Dude Abides

Banned
Did Obama really call Romney a bullshitter?

That plays well to a college and teenager crowd, but I honestly can't imagine that getting anything but negative press outside of the internet. Looks about as presidential as his sarcastic replies in the last couple debates...

(and yes, it is obvious that Romney is in fact a bullshitter, but come on, Mr. President!)

Reaching for the smelling salts over "bullshitter"? Dearest me, my gosh my golly, that Lyndon Baines Johnson fellow would have caused an aneurysm.
 
Romney's legal transcript from divorce of friend/CEO of Staples where Romney allegedly lied about Staples' finances set to hit the press. Lady who got divorced from CEO who (I guess) calls BS on Romney's statements not allowed to talk yet...has to take it to the judge who can re-look at whatever circumstances were agreed upon 18 years ago. Been watching TMZ's live feed for the past 20 minutes.

Ha. Just refreshed page with TMZ's update. Looks like I was paying attention. The judge was pretty hot...as is the ex-wife.
 

HylianTom

Banned
A bullshitter?!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBIxGjSHzF8

-

My alarm clock went off at 0800, with NPR's headlines playing. The Powell endorsement was their first story, with Powell saying that Obama has done well in a really tough situation. I'm normally one who curses at the clock, but this had me hop of of bed, pumping my fists and wondering what PolliGAF was freaking-out over.

-

Speaking of "over," I'd love for the "this race is OHVA!" meme to come true.. :)
 

Tim-E

Member
Who cares if he said that? The only people who would even remotely care or would be shocked that an adult male is cussin' would be people who already aren't voting for him to begin with.
 
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