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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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SmokeMaxX

Member
I wouldn't get too cute, Intrade has been pretty volatile

I would just buy Obama and sit on it. You will make a lot of money when it gets to 10 on November 6th. I can't imagine you would make more trying to short sell the natural ups and downs due to state and national polls.
Listen to these people. Intrade doesn't make any damn sense. Gallop polls come out showing Romney +7 and nothing moves. Other polls come out showing Obama +5 in a swing state, and Romney's stock goes up. It just isn't logical.
 

SmokeMaxX

Member
Stick to Obama and hope that his chance to win doesn't go any higher so that you get as much profit as possible.

I was going to get in at 54% then I realized I couldnt instantly add funds to my account, by the time the funds wouldve cleared it wouldnt have been attractive anymore. I'll just have fun in Vegas next week.

Why risk Vegas when you can get free money on Obama?
 

Tim-E

Member
Not worried about NV

If you consider NC safe for Romney, NV safe for Obama and assume that Wisconsin is fool's gold for the Republicans, Obama has 253 EVs to Romney's 206. That leaves CO, IA, OH, NH, VA, and FL. If Obama wins JUST Ohio or Florida and loses the rest, he wins. If he wins Virginia + any one other swing state he wins. If he wins Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire while losing Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, Obama still wins the election.
 

watershed

Banned
Is there a link for that?

Sorry, here it is:http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/10/obama-says-kids-know-romney-is-dishonest-147184.html

"We arrived at the Oval Office for our 45-minute interview … on the morning of October 11th. … As we left the Oval Office, executive editor Eric Bates told Obama that he had asked his six-year-old if there was anything she wanted him to say to the president. … he said, ‘Tell him: You can do it.’ Obama grinned. … ‘You know, kids have good instincts,’ Obama offered. ‘They look at the other guy and say, “Well, that’s a bullsh---er, I can tell.”’”


I don't think this will play well, if the press latches on to it. Even though he's not saying it directly, he pretty much is and that's not very presidential or polite. So late in the game, things like this can switch the minds of frail independents who are turned off by harsh language. I bet Obama thought he was off the record.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
If you consider NC safe for Romney, NV safe for Obama and assume that Wisconsin is fool's gold for the Republicans, Obama has 253 EVs to Romney's 206. That leaves CO, IA, OH, NH, VA, and FL. If Obama wins JUST Ohio or Florida and loses the rest, he wins. If he wins Virginia + any one other swing state he wins. If he wins Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire while losing Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, Obama still wins the election.

Just can't see this being this close. Obama isn't winning by a mere 10-15 EVs. Going to be more like 25 or 30, IMO. Might just be my true colors showing through, though.
 
He's going to be on MNF? That will likely be far more awkward than his Wikipedia foreign affairs talk.

He and Obama have both requested to be on at halftime. They interviewed Obama and McCain in 2008, so I don't see why they would refuse it this time around. But yes, the potential for awkwardness is incredibly high.
 

Tim-E

Member
Just can't see this being this close. Obama isn't winning by a mere 10-15 EVs. Going to be more like 25 or 30, IMO. Might just be my true colors showing through, though.

It's not going to be that close, I agree, I'm just stressing how difficult Romney's electoral math is and why there's little reason to worry unless some huge unknown event occurs, as the debates are out of the way.
 

Salvadora

Member
Sorry, here it is:http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/10/obama-says-kids-know-romney-is-dishonest-147184.html



I don't think this will play well, if the press latches on to it. Even though he's not saying it directly, he pretty much is and that's not very presidential or polite. So late in the game, things like this can switch the minds of frail independents who are turned off by harsh language. I bet Obama thought he was off the record.

Damn. Didn't think I'd hear anything like that from Obama.
 
How likely is it that this will be the last Presidential election that Social Conservativs will be competitive in? With the demographics changing so significantly over the next four years and a likely much improved economy by 2016, I dont see how this party stays the same and survives.
 

WaltJay

Member
Judge to release Romney testimony
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/10/25/judge-to-release-romney-testimony/

A Massachusetts judge agreed Thursday to release Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s testimony in a testy 1988 divorce case that pitted one of his key business associates against a Boston socialite.
At issue is what Romney said in the case about the estimated value of Staples, then a fledgling private company in which his firm was a major investor. The office supplies firm shortly after went public and became a sensational success story.

Score 1 for the Blue Team; at least this resulted in something as opposed to Troll King Trump's "announcement".
 

Loudninja

Member
Sorry, here it is:http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/10/obama-says-kids-know-romney-is-dishonest-147184.html



I don't think this will play well, if the press latches on to it. Even though he's not saying it directly, he pretty much is and that's not very presidential or polite. So late in the game, things like this can switch the minds of frail independents who are turned off by harsh language. I bet Obama thought he was off the record.
Give me a break.
 
If you consider NC safe for Romney, NV safe for Obama and assume that Wisconsin is fool's gold for the Republicans, Obama has 253 EVs to Romney's 206. That leaves CO, IA, OH, NH, VA, and FL. If Obama wins JUST Ohio or Florida and loses the rest, he wins. If he wins Virginia + any one other swing state he wins. If he wins Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire while losing Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, Obama still wins the election.

Romney hasn't lead a single WI poll even after the 1st debate, so seems like fool's gold indeed.
 

Tim-E

Member
Today on electoral-vote.com is Obama 294 vs. Romney 244 EVs. On this day eight years ago it was Bush 285 vs. Kerry 247. Bush ended up winning with 286 vs. 251.

Romney hasn't lead a single WI poll even after the 1st debate, so seems like fool's gold indeed.

Absolutely. The media, for some reason, still likes to pretend it's a swing state to make it look close so I just wanted to discredit that notion.
 

markatisu

Member
Sorry, here it is:http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/10/obama-says-kids-know-romney-is-dishonest-147184.html

I don't think this will play well, if the press latches on to it. Even though he's not saying it directly, he pretty much is and that's not very presidential or polite. So late in the game, things like this can switch the minds of frail independents who are turned off by harsh language. I bet Obama thought he was off the record.

Nobody this late in the game is going to be upset by that comment, those that dislike Obama will still dislike him and those who love him will be happy.

At this points its about motivating your base, Democrats outregister Republicans in almost every state that is crucial so if Obama can get them to the polls he wins hands down.

Romeny has constantly needed a game changer, closest he got was the 1st debate and that did not resonate in the areas that mattered.
 
From the way some of you were talking I thought Obama said bullshitter at a rally or something

nobody gives a shit about a Rolling Stone interview
 
Drudge picked it up, but I don't see it anywhere else that's notable.

And let's face it - Romney is a bullshitter. He calls it like he sees it, nothing wrong with that.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
From the way some of you were talking I thought Obama said bullshitter at a rally or something

nobody gives a shit about a Rolling Stone interview

Hey, I went to school with one of their journalist's sister....actually even she wasn't too impressed by his job nevermind
 

watershed

Banned
Drudge picked it up, but I don't see it anywhere else that's notable.

And let's face it - Romney is a bullshitter. He calls it like he sees it, nothing wrong with that.

I think the press will give it a pass for the most part but use it as day time news filler on CNN and prime time volcanic eruption material on Fox. IIRC, something like this happened a while back with another politician and everyone talked about how of course politicians and presidents cuss, but no one wants to be caught doing so publicly.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Just can't see this being this close. Obama isn't winning by a mere 10-15 EVs. Going to be more like 25 or 30, IMO. Might just be my true colors showing through, though.
I'd agree with this.

There was a point after the first debate where, when things were narrowing a bit, the closest I thought it could pooooossibly get was around 271EVs (my confidence in Ohio has never wavered throughout this entire race; thus, the ice in my veins this whole time). But that was a sort of worst case scenario.

Now, I'm convinced that Obama has a floor of 281EVs that he will win no matter what, with Florida, Colorado, and Virginia being coin flips. I really hope that he wins one or two of these three so that he has an insurance buffer just in case that overgrown redneck frat boy in Ohio tries to get any clever ideas.

Ceiling? If yesterday's movements become a trend, I could see this trend bringing those three coin flips into Obama's column while North Carolina becomes a coin flip.

And I really, really hope that we see Omaha give us a little gift. Seeing a purple state in the middle like that connecting the Blue NorthEast/Midwest to Obama's Mountain/Desert Zone would be sweet.

High on hopium this morning. I feel like I'm getting greedy!
 
It's a stupid unforced error. Obama is already being portrayed as desperate and behind, compared to the confident and optimistic Romney. This just plays into that meme. Does it matter? Probably not. But it's still an ugly story that could have been avoided

Btw Obama will not lose Nevada, I don't know what Romney is doing there
 

Tim-E

Member
It's a stupid unforced error. Obama is already being portrayed as desperate and behind, compared to the confident and optimistic Romney. This just plays into that meme. Does it matter? Probably not. But it's still an ugly story that could have been avoided

Btw Obama will not lose Nevada, I don't know what Romney is doing there

If he said it to a reporter, considering how controlled he likes his interviews to be, I doubt it was an error.
 

Salvadora

Member
It's a stupid unforced error. Obama is already being portrayed as desperate and behind, compared to the confident and optimistic Romney. This just plays into that meme. Does it matter? Probably not. But it's still an ugly story that could have been avoided

Btw Obama will not lose Nevada, I don't know what Romney is doing there

Shows how much more presidential Romney is.
 
It's a stupid unforced error. Obama is already being portrayed as desperate and behind, compared to the confident and optimistic Romney. This just plays into that meme. Does it matter? Probably not. But it's still an ugly story that could have been avoided

Btw Obama will not lose Nevada, I don't know what Romney is doing there

So you think Bams will lose WI or Ohio, right?
 

Loudninja

Member
John McCain Lashes Out At Colin Powell After Obama Endorsement
John McCain bitterly denounced former Secretary of State Colin Powell on Thursday for supporting President Obama for a second straight election.

“General Powell, you disappoint us and you have harmed your legacy even further by defending what is clearly the most feckless foreign policy in my lifetime,” McCain told Brian Kilmeade on his radio program.
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...ll-after-obama-endorsement.php?ref=fpnewsfeed
 

Loudninja

Member
It's a stupid unforced error. Obama is already being portrayed as desperate and behind, compared to the confident and optimistic Romney. This just plays into that meme. Does it matter? Probably not. But it's still an ugly story that could have been avoided

Btw Obama will not lose Nevada, I don't know what Romney is doing there
This is all total nonsense.
 

richiek

steals Justin Bieber DVDs
HorseD20121025_low.jpg

Chicago politics and the 47% in the blue states. And of course gays can only be found in the west coast. GTFO.
 
How likely is it that this will be the last Presidential election that Social Conservativs will be competitive in? With the demographics changing so significantly over the next four years and a likely much improved economy by 2016, I dont see how this party stays the same and survives.

They'll never go away entirely.

Right-wing social extremism seems to be somewhat cyclical. Look at France, with the batshit crazy FN getting nearly 20% in the presidential election. Even in countries regarded as super liberal, certain triggers can bring about a surge in extremism. (In our case, it was electing a negro president.)

I expect (and hope) that this election will be a stake in the heart of the Tea Party movement, but we'll probably see another similar movement at some point in the future. (Hopefully far less pronounced.)
 

HylianTom

Banned
Hmm. Telling.

They know that, while it won't be as big a deal as last time, it might still reassure middle-of-the-road Obama voters.

And the bullshitter thing has been shrugged off by everyone at work here today (a surprisingly even mix of political stripes - lots of New Orleans residents and suburban/rural commuters here).
 

Jackson50

Member
It's a stupid unforced error. Obama is already being portrayed as desperate and behind, compared to the confident and optimistic Romney. This just plays into that meme. Does it matter? Probably not. But it's still an ugly story that could have been avoided

Btw Obama will not lose Nevada, I don't know what Romney is doing there
It's an inconsequential story unworthy of attention. You're certainly overreacting. Surprise. At least Dax's observation holds true; there's a correlation between your trolling and good news for Obama.
I find your analysis of Mourdock's comments about illegal, forced copulation and the comparison to Akin's analogous situation to be off-base due to each man's distinct whereabouts in our great dominion.

We should accede to our discord and scrutinize the denouement when it occurs.
Passe, but I can't deny the effort.
 

watershed

Banned

Colin Powell has sound foreign policy ideas. John McCain's foreign policy is war and invasion and never leaving. Except in humanitarian cases or cases where the only US gain is in establishing better foreign relations and supporting democracy. Then his foreign policy don't lift a finger, or just criticize whatever the president is doing.

People always said John McCain was a serious republican, I don't know why they said that.
 
I honestly respect Mourdock's comment more than Akin's. At least Mourdock seemed like he was expressing a difficult personal view, and I do not believe he meant God intends for women to be raped. Whereas Akin has been blatantly misogynist and aggressively ignorant on women's issues

So you respect a completely ridiculous fucking statement more than another ridiculous fucking statement?

That makes no sense. What they said in both instances was fucking stupid. Even if people have personal beliefs that may be controversial, there has to be a switch in the brain that says "Don't say this shit, it's fucking stupid" and neither of them posses that switch. And neither statement has anything that should be "respected".
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Passe, but I can't deny the effort.

LOL--just having some fun.

If anybody wants a clear message as to how fair and balanced Fox News is, take a look at their current picture/headline on their website.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I'd love to see an updated poll for Mourdock's race in Indiana. I still don't think it will be enough for him to lose, but I'VE BEEN WRONG BEFORE.
 
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