• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

Status
Not open for further replies.

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
...


I mostly agree with you, especially about Ohio; I do think Mitt may have potential to move a bit more, but it remains to be seen.

I find intrade more upsetting than anything else at the moment, tbh

Diablos, you should be incredibly relaxed about Intrade now. I used to think Intrade was a huge market with tens or even hundreds of thousands of people trading. One buyer today-- ONE buyer!!-- became a price maker instead of a price taker. That is absolutely insane.

I'm not sure how predictive it actually is vs. people just looking for arbitrage possibilities now.

Can you imagine what other markets would look like if one person could be a price maker? It's totally ridiculous that someone was able to send the entire system into chaos with a $15,000 bet.
 
I love how sexist some of those analyses get. It's really pretty shameful.

its nuts.

the concept of the "women vote" is baffling in itself. nobody talks about the "man vote". why not? there are as many women as there are men. everyone treats the women as some sort of minority group. why is that?
 

Hazmat

Member
Why do they even bother putting him on? Have they no shame? Aren't the embarrassed that he makes such terrible predictions that never come true? Is have a former Clinton guy that shills for the GOP now that good that they keep putting him on no matter what inaccurate garbage he spews?

Are you completely heartless? If they don't keep him employed how is going to afford the prostitutes that he needs to be happy?
 

RDreamer

Member
its nuts.

the concept of the "women vote" is baffling in itself. nobody talks about the "man vote". why not? there are as many women as there are men. everyone treats the women as some sort of minority group. why is that?

Well, some do talk about the man vote in that Obama is losing it. Anyway the way they don't talk about it in the same way is because our country was controlled exclusively by men for so long that there really aren't any men specific issues that aren't already pretty much solved. With women there are issues like contraception and the pay gap that still need solutions, because we didn't even let them into the game until late, and men are still asshats when it comes to these things, apparently. Also, the women voting block has become increasingly powerful because that gender gap toward the democrats is seen as swinging things.

In years to come there may be some men's issues, in particular that men are going to college and graduating less and less compared to women. So, I suppose that could come up at some point, but that's probably way down the road.
 
I don't post in here hardly ever, but I wasn't sure if this had been brought to PoliGAF's attention: statistical analysis of the GOP primaries that alleges pro-Romney election fraud.

http://www.themoneyparty.org/main/w...lectionsResultsAnomaliesAndAnalysis_V1.51.pdf

The Iowa graph is jarring. I'm not saying it's a certainty, I'm just saying that if I were to try and steal an election via voting machine, that's probably the algorithm I'd employ.

So: of the swing states, which are heavy on voting machines?
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Elfforkusu, that's actually my biggest fear for November.

The polls being as fucked up as they are, will make it easier for subtle manipulation to go unnoticed.
 

RiccochetJ

Gold Member
Who's fucking bright idea was it to shut down all west bound 470 traffic coming out of the Denver Tech Center at the height of rush hour?

Who's bright idea was it to hold a rally at Red Rocks on a Tues night exactly at rush hour?

I was stuck on an on-ramp for 2 hours :mad:

The huge convoy when it went by was pretty cool though. Only ever really saw that in movies.
 

Slime

Banned
Wow. The parallels between GWB and Romney on foreign policy that Maddow just highlighted are terrifying and uncanny.
 

Forever

Banned
I don't post in here hardly ever, but I wasn't sure if this had been brought to PoliGAF's attention: statistical analysis of the GOP primaries that alleges pro-Romney election fraud.

http://www.themoneyparty.org/main/w...lectionsResultsAnomaliesAndAnalysis_V1.51.pdf

The Iowa graph is jarring. I'm not saying it's a certainty, I'm just saying that if I were to try and steal an election via voting machine, that's probably the algorithm I'd employ.

So: of the swing states, which are heavy on voting machines?

If this is legit why isn't it on the Huffington Post?
 

markatisu

Member
I don't post in here hardly ever, but I wasn't sure if this had been brought to PoliGAF's attention: statistical analysis of the GOP primaries that alleges pro-Romney election fraud.

http://www.themoneyparty.org/main/w...lectionsResultsAnomaliesAndAnalysis_V1.51.pdf

The Iowa graph is jarring. I'm not saying it's a certainty, I'm just saying that if I were to try and steal an election via voting machine, that's probably the algorithm I'd employ.

So: of the swing states, which are heavy on voting machines?

And yet he still lost Iowa to Santorum, Romney can't even steal elections right ;)
 
Was Dick Morris always this crazy and stupid? I know he was fired for the Clinton administration but was he like this then?

He was pretty smart actually. The issue is that he felt he was completely thrown under the bus during the sex scandal stuff, and betrayed by Clinton (who of course at the time had his own issues with sex scandals).

I doubt he believes most of the shit he says, and every now and then he'll saw something smart. He just realizes his shit sells best with the fringe, and no matter what happens every 4 years he'll always have an audience.
 

YoungHav

Banned
I am in the Middle East watching Al Jazeera. Larry King is refereeing a debate in Chicago, with Rocky Andersen, Jill Stein, Gary Johnson, and a 4th candidate participating. Is this airing in the U.S. at the moment?
 
Bad news for Romney (that is actually the title lol)
In a conference call with reporters Obama campaign manager Jim Messina dropped some devastating numbers on Romney. Messina pointed out that more people are early voting for Obama in 2012 than did in 2008.

Messina laid out what early voting is looking like for the president right now. He said Obama is winning early voting in Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Ohio early vote turnout is higher for Obama in 2008 than in Republican counties. He said that this election is more diverse. Most new registrants are under 30. 2/3 of those who have early voted are women, African-Americans, and Latinos. Democrats are winning everywhere where there are in person early votes.

Obama’s campaign manager explained why they think some of these polls are way off in the battleground states, “I do think there is some differences in states, we delve very deep into these states, and we think some people aren’t getting it right about who this electorate is going to be.” We continue to think the math has changed in Florida.” He said there are 250,000 more registered African-American and Latino voters in Florida, and that overall early voting among African-Americans is up 50% over 2008.

New voter registration numbers in Ohio heavily favor Obama. Four in five Ohioans (81 percent) who have registered to vote in 2012 are either female, younger than 30, or African-American or Latino. 64 percent of Ohioans who have registered to vote in 2012, and the same percentage among those who have already voted, live in counties that President Obama won in 2008.

...

Recent early voting numbers in Ohio back up the Obama campaign’s claim that early voting is up for Obama and down for Romney. 582,402 ballots have been requested this year from precincts that Obama won in 2008, 33,414 more than in from precincts that McCain won.The total number of votes already cast this year (both by mail and in-person) from precincts Obama won in 2008 is 261,304 – 55,636 more than from precincts McCain won.
 

markatisu

Member
obama MUST win ohio, virginia, wisconsin, florida, colorado, and nevada if this happens:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=PUo

LOL I clicked on that and it took me a few mins to realize CA turned red

That is sad if it takes something like that to keep it close

And I think we are going to see Nate is proven right on the underpolling/representation of minorities. Obama could devastate Romney if the Hispanic vote comes out in any force
 

pigeon

Banned
Make a thread and ask any statisticians out there to confirm or debunk it.

I am pretty curious about this. It seems to me that the paper is not really written in a rigorous manner and they haven't really shown that there are no other possible explanations, but I'd like to see what other people think.
 

HylianTom

Banned
LOL I clicked on that and it took me a few mins to realize CA turned red

That is sad if it takes something like that to keep it close

And I think we are going to see Nate is proven right on the underpolling/representation of minorities. Obama could devastate Romney if the Hispanic vote comes out in any force
I'm thinking that this could very well be the year where the southwest makes its switch, thanks in major part to minority voters. If this does indeed come true and Obama sweeps this region's swing states.. Ohio might just be providing bonus electors.

Well if 2012 was any indication a whole bunch of unconstitutional ones
With any luck, Obama's flood of judges will be ready and eager to knock 'em down. A liberal trump card in the form of judiciary control - and for decades? Mua-ha-ha-ha!
 
Bad news for Romney (that is actually the title lol)

bqc-2fb_originallzsx0.gif
 

Forever

Banned
I am pretty curious about this. It seems to me that the paper is not really written in a rigorous manner and they haven't really shown that there are no other possible explanations, but I'd like to see what other people think.

Why don't you make the thread then?
 
People still take Morris seriously. The same guy who went on twitter last night declaring his love for Romney.

He seriously lives in another dimension. If Obama makes Romney really angry during a debate, and Romney punched him, Dick Morris will say Romney just won the election or some shit. He is completely crazy.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom