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[kirblar]

I trust Intrade, IEM and the Sportbooks more than polls LOL

They're using polls as the basis for their analysis. You should learn how to beat them so you can leverage that information advantage against the sportsbooks!

 

[Hobbestetrician]

Why didn't Nate put today's PPP poll into his model for Virginia?

Saving it for tomorrow in case there is a lack of hopium?

 

[eBay Huckster]

Hell, I married one and it was stupid complicated. But I am there now, suckers!

Fair warning, you may have to help me through that process in a couple years

(...immigration, not marriage)

 

[AniHawk]

Why didn't Nate put today's PPP poll into his model for Virginia?

that's what i was thinking. maybe he missed it. maybe it's maybelline.

 

[Chrono]

I doubt it's going to get any attention outside of political circles. Obama swears like a sailor on the Dreams from my Father audiobook and no one cared.

Edit:
Here's a (cropped) example:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJrXlHBDGU4

Huh... "highschool chicks university chicks it don't matter..."

 

[Y2Kev]

that's what i was thinking. maybe he missed it. maybe it's maybelline.

I thought maybe because it was commissioned by HCFAN but...he has others in there.

 

[Effect]

Obama is really getting the interviews in. It's so weird that Romney is pretty much running away from the press it seems. Giving Obama all the air time.

Edit: Not complaining just find it weird.

 

[speculawyer]

Sam Wang is quite the snarkmaster.

David Brooks – now with Ro-mentum!
October 25th, 2012, 10:30am by Sam Wang

It was fun to learn of David Brooks’s addiction to polling data. He spends countless hours on them, looking at aggregators, examining individual polls, and sniffing poll internals. From all of this, what has he learned?

1. Today, President Obama would be a bit more likely to win.
2. There seems to be a whiff of momentum toward Mitt Romney.

(Emphasis mine.)
I am having a sad. All of that effort, and his two conclusions still have two major errors. Evidently he does not read the Princeton Election Consortium. Let us dissect this.

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/25/do-you-understand-polls-as-well-as-david-brooks/

David Brooks may know more than that . . . but he may just not want to admit it. (Actually, he may indeed be that clueless.)

 

[Brinbe]

Damn, that's really an insane amount of travel.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

Fair warning, you may have to help me through that process in a couple years

(...immigration, not marriage)

Would be happy to help. The complicated process did save my life, though, because I found out I had cancer because of the medical screening.

 

[Cloudy]

Bams piece/interview on Rock Center now, NBC. 48 hours with the Pres.

Brian Williams is being a dick. How does he go from Libya to "Why didn't you visit Israel as president"? Fuck these guys....

 

[Manmademan]

Obama is really getting the interviews in. It's so weird that Romney is pretty much running away from the press it seems. Giving Obama all the air time.

It's not weird, it's what he's always done. Romney does very poorly outside of controlled situations, And he rarely gave non fox interviews until recently.

 

[Y2Kev]

I tweeted nate. Let's see if he responds

(i dont know how to do the twitter)

 

[HylianTom]

12 nights from tonight. Wow.

I hope that Virginia and Ohio are called for Obama by this time.

 

[Hitokage]

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/25/do-you-understand-polls-as-well-as-david-brooks/

David Brooks may know more than that . . . but he may just not want to admit it. (Actually, he may indeed be that clueless.)

It's David Brooks. Of course he is.

 

[AniHawk]

(i dont know how to do the twitter)

great. now we have to keep going through infinite loops of time before we find the lone inconsistency to stop the chiming of the liberty bell.

 

[Bowdz]

Brian Williams is being a dick. How does he go from Libya to "Why didn't you visit Israel as president"? Fuck these guys....

It's a fair question ... as long as it is followed by the fact that George W. Bush didn't visit Israel as president until January 2008 and that George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan never visited Israel as president.

 

[Owzers]

Romney running on big change, avoids interviews so he doesn't have to say what that change is or have to answer another question on how his tax plan math doesn't add up. Or questions on rape and babies.

 

[jiggle]

the press don't seem to mind it though
when more candidates take this route in the future
who's really at fault

 

[Y2Kev]

You'd think the press would be scared shitless of a Romney presidency given his utter contempt for them, but no, they're fine with their horserace shit.

 

[AniHawk]

didn't bush not do interviews too?

 

[Hobbestetrician]

You'd think the press would be scared shitless of a Romney presidency given his utter contempt for them, but no, they're fine with their horserace shit.

You mean to tell me that people will sometimes act or vote against their best interests?

 

[pigeon]

You'd think the press would be scared shitless of a Romney presidency given his utter contempt for them, but no, they're fine with their horserace shit.

I'm actually really surprised. I figured this was a perfect three act show. Act 1, Obama beats Romney all year. Act 2, October Romney fights to the brink of victory. Act 3, Obama examines his failings, training montage, wins the third debate and an inevitable reelection. If I were going to write a facile narrative to guide the ostensibly objective reporting of a major cable news network to compete for viewers I could then sell to ad agencies, this is definitely the story I'd write. For once I thought all the bullshit would align with what I actually wanted them to say (and, even, the truth, kind of).

 

[el retorno]

It's a fair question ... as long as it is followed by the fact that George W. Bush didn't visit Israel as president until January 2008 and that George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan never visited Israel as president.

Its funny cause HW was hard on Israel. He called on them to stop their colonization and called East Jersualem occupied territory, made sure they didn't respond during the Iraq war

 

[Chichikov]

(Actually, he may indeed be that clueless.)

Ding ding ding.
David Brooks is like an anti-transformer, there is less than meets the eye.

 

[Cloudy]

You'd think the press would be scared shitless of a Romney presidency given his utter contempt for them, but no, they're fine with their horserace shit.

Obama losing is a much bigger story than him winning. Plus they get to cover a new president as well.

 

[Black Mamba]

Silver just tweeted he missed the ppp poll and ras in az and adding it in now. Odds to go up I imagine.

 

[AniHawk]

Silver just tweeted he missed the ppp poll and ras in az and adding it in now. Odds to go up I imagine.

or go down considering arizona.

 

[bananas]

or go down considering arizona.

Arizona's not a swing state, so I doubt it.

 

[Aaron Strife]

or go down considering arizona.

Obama's chances of winning there are already pretty darn low.

 

[Black Mamba]

or go down considering arizona.

Joke? 97% to win before this new poll. Moving a percent won't mean shit.

 

[speculawyer]

Why didn't Nate put today's PPP poll into his model for Virginia?

that's what i was thinking. maybe he missed it. maybe it's maybelline.

I tweeted nate. Let's see if he responds
(i dont know how to do the twitter)

Silver just tweeted he missed the ppp poll and ras in az and adding it in now. Odds to go up I imagine.

Wow. Poll-iGAF indeed. This thread lives up to its name.

 

[AniHawk]

Arizona's not a swing state, so I doubt it.

Obama's chances of winning there are already pretty darn low.

he had a 3% chance to win it though. it's crucial in this scenario

 

[Red Blaster]

Wonder if Nate factored in Romney's 70k person rally in Florida

 

[Thaedolus]

he had a 3% chance to win it though. it's crucial in this scenario

...and the odds of this scenario have to be like a million to one.

 

[AniHawk]

Wonder if Nate factored in Romney's 70k person rally in Florida

rcp did

 

[B-Dubs]

...and the odds of this scenario have to be like a million to one.

That scenario will NEVER happen. EVER.

 

[Hitokage]

That scenario will NEVER happen. EVER.

Obama announces new "Fuck California" platform.

 

[Bowdz]

he had a 3% chance to win it though. it's crucial in this scenario

 

[Cloudy]

he had a 3% chance to win it though. it's crucial in this scenario

Ok, I'm confused. What's with that map? Something's not right lol

 

[teh_pwn]

lulz, polligaf just corrected Nate fucking Silver.

 

[Thaedolus]

That scenario will NEVER happen. EVER.

Obama loses CA and wins AZ. I would eat a pile of my own shit if that happened.

 

[pigeon]

Wow. Poll-iGAF indeed. This thread lives up to its name.

538 > PoliGAF > 538 > president

 

[StopMakingSense]

Speaking of CA, gas prices are starting to come down. Bad news for National Trackers.

 

[Stridone]

Did you guys know that hillaryis44.com still existed? They've turned into hardcore republicans of the dumbest kind, it's pretty hilarious.

 

[Loudninja]

Obama has been very busy.

 

[Cloudy]

Obama loses CA and wins AZ. I would eat a pile of my own shit if that happened.

There we go. lol I'm dumb

 

[Tim-E]

PolliGAF is a much better name.

 

[RDreamer]

Holy Christ-on-a-stick, I think I'm arguing with the dumbest right winger alive. Someone responded to something of my cousin's with that stupid line about how Obama had two years to do whatever he wanted, so the economy is his fault. So I went off on him, and got the dumbest response ever:

How is it worse if you include the people that gave up looking for work unemployment is at 14%. How many executive orders has he passed? Bengazi, Fast and Furious, Middle East Melt down, How many countries have chanted Burn America Burn? Fast and Furious is 100% Obama admin. How many Hybrids are on the roads? GM if isn't right now going through another bankruptcy will be soon. Solyndra. How many times has Obama tried to get rid of the Constitution?

I mean seriously, lol

 

[Black Mamba]

He has a point. By my count Obama has tried to get rid of the constitution at least four times.