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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Black Mamba said:
That 50% number is irrelevant. Too much is made out of it. Yes, being above 50% is huge.

But here's an example. Obama leading 49-47 in a poll. That leaves 4% undecided. What happens if only 50% of the undecided show up and go 60-40 for Romney?

Then Obama is at 51%. Not all the undecideds will show up and thus the real number is above 50% anyway.

That said, the models are underscoring turnout in many cases, IMO. And I believe that hurts Dems. And it's not necessarily the model's fault. I just think when we get close to election day that a lot of people not certain to vote will vote and this will be good for Dems.

The "independent" number doesn't bother me as much because a lot of Republicans became indies the last 4 years.
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How it irrelevant for an incumbent candidate? Also

Romney’s gains are clear especially in results on the economy. This poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds that likely voters now pick Romney over Obama in trust to handle the economy by 52-43 percent – the first time either candidate has held a clear lead over the other on this central issue.

Equally important, Romney has erased Obama’s customary advantage on which candidate better understands the economic problems of average Americans. Today, 48 percent pick Obama, 46 percent Romney – essentially a dead heat. Yesterday and today mark the first time in the campaign that Obama hasn’t had at least a marginally significant lead on economic empathy.
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Horrible numbers, end of story. I don't think we can focus on this one poll and be considered serious, but it's certainly disconcerting that we're seeing numbers like this 12 days before the election.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
ryutaro's mama said:
8-10 days from now will be 2-4 days before the election.

I wonder how good Obama's polling has been since Game 3.

Does it seem like he's getting a bounce?
Click to expand...

He had what looked like a one-to-two point lift in tracking polls yesterday and state polls today. The tracking poll improvement didn't continue.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
PhoenixDark said:
How it irrelevant for an incumbent candidate? Also
Click to expand...

I explained because being at 48-49 could actually mean being above 50 if you realize not all the undecideds show up.

Or if the LV model is too low.


The incumbent stuff is irrelevant. We are more polarized than ever.



Horrible numbers, end of story. I don't think we can focus on this one poll and be considered serious, but it's certainly disconcerting that we're seeing numbers like this 12 days before the election.
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And I will reiterate, they don't consider ANY "probably vote" or "50/50 to vote" in these numbers. I think as a result these are incomplete numbers that will rectify itself in 8 days.

the variability in the polling is clearly due to the way the LV models are set up and cell phone polling. (ignoring Gallup who is way off right no based on their RV numbers).

8-10 days from now will be 2-4 days before the election.

I wonder how good Obama's polling has been since Game 3.

Does it seem like he's getting a bounce?
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Which is why I said I think these people move to likely voters the final 5 days of the election.


Obama's numbers have generally improved in most trackers. ABC is really the only one he's gotten worse in. State polls have been pretty good these last 2 days. Even right leaners are showing smaller leads for Obama, like Rasmussen, in states.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
re: wisconsin, before the election, rcp had an average of about +6.8 walker, and was only off by .1 (results were +6.7 walker). tpm's poll tracker had it a +5.9 walker victory.

rcp currently has obama up 2.7 in wisconsin, tpm is up 2.8, and 538 has him up 3.9.

more than that, this is a state with early voting, and hasn't shown a romney lead, or even a tie, since mid-august. at this time in the recall election, there hadn't been a positive poll for barret in almost 2 months either.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
Black Mamba said:
I explained because being at 48-49 could actually mean being above 50 if you realize not all the undecideds show up.Or if the LV model is too low.
The incumbent stuff is irrelevant. We are more polarized than ever.
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Did Bush have over 50% in the polling at this point in 2004?

And I will reiterate, they don't consider ANY "probably vote" or "50/50 to vote" in these numbers. I think as a result these are incomplete numbers that will rectify itself in 8 days.
the variability in the polling is clearly due to the way the LV models are set up and cell phone polling. (ignoring Gallup who is way off right no based on their RV numbers).
Which is why I said I think these people move to likely voters the final 5 days of the election.
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The "probably" people should have been counted as likely, not the 50/50s. Not sure how any fucking Democrat could choose to stay home this cycle.

Makes zero fucking sense.

I'm not confident at all Obama will win until they call the election for him. I know that shenanigans will persist on Election Day.

And that weather is a shitty omen too.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Well reading the last two pages has me in panic mode again. I need Bams to win the popular vote in addition to the ECV. I NEED IT.
 
H

Hobbestetrician

Member
Bowdz said:
Well reading the last two pages has me in panic mode again. I need Bams to win the popular vote in addition to the ECV. I NEED IT.
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Yeah the discrepancy between the state polls and some of the national polls is really strange and has made much more uneasy than I would care to be.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
ryutaro's mama said:
Did Bush have over 50% in the polling at this point in 2004?



The "probably" people should have been counted as likely, not the 50/50s. Not sure how any fucking Democrat could choose to stay home this cycle.

Makes zero fucking sense.

I'm not confident at all Obama will win until they call the election for him. I know that shenanigans will persist on Election Day.

And that weather is a shitty omen too.
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chart_id70_TH_BK_LV.jpg


50.7 to 48.3 was the real result. Election was on Nov 2. edit: This is just Gallup

RCP had Kerry too low by about 2 percent the entire time. Also, Bush was under 50% You don't get over 50% in close elections until the election is about a couple days away, I'd imagine.
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
Black Mamba said:
chart_id70_TH_BK_LV.jpg


50.7 to 48.3 was the real result. Election was on Nov 2. edit: This is just Gallup

RCP had Kerry too low by about 2 percent the entire time. Also, Bush was under 50% You don't get over 50% in close elections until the election is about a couple days away, I'd imagine.
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Where'd you get this and are there versions for 2000 and 2008?
 
A

AniHawk

Member
ryutaro's mama said:
How dead-on was Silver's model last cycles?

(2008 and 2010)?
Click to expand...

2008 the pv predicted 52.3-46.2. final result was 52.9-45.7 (so the model gave mccain a whole extra point and then some).

i think a lot of why 538 was off was due to voter enthusiasm. if both sides are about equal in their enthusiasm this time around, the results may perform even closer to the model.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
ryutaro's mama said:
How dead-on was Silver's model last cycles?

(2008 and 2010)?
Click to expand...

AniHawk said:
i'd feel a little better if his model wasn't only really tested for this once before. with other polling aggregate sites backing it up some, i don't feel quite so bad about it though.
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I seem to remember it getting down the popular vote in 2010 when Republicans won the congressional ballot by 7 and Gallup and shit were showing them up by 15.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
eBay Huckster said:
un28d.png


Poetic justice, put it in a song...
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The Princeton Election Consortium had an article a day or two ago putting the split scenario at about 25%. I'm not sure of their method on arriving at that number.

Today, the race is quite close. However, note this. In terms of the Electoral College, President Obama has been ahead on every single day of the campaign, without exception.

I would then give the following verdict: Indeed the race is close, but it seems stable. For the last week, there is no evidence that conditions have been moving toward Romney. There is always the chance that I may have to eat my words – but that will require movement that is not yet apparent in polls.

The popular vote is a different story. I estimate an approximately 25% chance that the popular vote and the electoral vote will go in opposite directions – a “Bush v. Gore scenario”. I regard this as a serious risk, since it would engender prolonged bitterness.
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http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/23/ro-mentum/

He could've pulled the number out of his nether regions for all we know. And I object to that last sentence, as we're going to see "prolonged bitterness" no matter how Obama wins. It would take an '84-style landslide before the GOP budges from their policy of obstruction.
 
K

kingkitty

Member
what if Morris was right, what if it is a Romney landslide?

the state polls, the intrade, Nate's predictions, it wasn't what we thought it was. They aren't what we thought they were. I was wrong. WE WERE SO WRONG!!!







well I think I was able to purge all the doubt out of me. Obama has got this, deep breaths y'all.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Just bad news for Obama. The usual.
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What's up with that ABC national tracking? I see Cheebs holds it in high regard, so does Silver.

Does it do a breakdown of voters by region? Why do I have a feeling the South is really propping up Mitt's numbers in a lot of these polls?

Time is ticking though; it's odd to see Romney ahead at this point in the LV model for tracking when we only have two weeks to go, yet being contradicted by many state polls.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
one interesting question asked of the abc lv is who they think will win the election, and 52% say obama while 40% say romney. that might be the largest discrepancy in all the polling there. the demographics split into 34-30-31. in 2008 it was 39-32-29. in 2004, it was 37-37-26.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Diablos said:
What's up with that ABC national tracking? I see Cheebs holds it in high regard, so does Silver.

Does it do a breakdown of voters by region? Why do I have a feeling the South is really propping up Mitt's numbers in a lot of these polls?

Time is ticking though; it's odd to see Romney ahead at this point in the LV model for tracking when we only have two weeks to go, yet being contradicted by many state polls.
Click to expand...

I really don't quite understand being actively worried over the national polls. Romney isn't showing some kind of clear cut statistical lead there at all and frankly, there are a lot of reasons to have greater faith in the state polls vs. national polls anyways, not the least of which is the fact that its extremely difficult to obtain an accurate sample of the national population as a whole and because there are a lot of confounding factors, such as the fact that there are entire regions of the country that practically hate Obama universally.
 
RiccochetJ

RiccochetJ

Gold Member
AniHawk said:
one interesting question asked of the abc lv is who they think will win the election, and 52% say obama while 40% say romney. that might be the largest discrepancy in all the polling there. the demographics split into 34-30-31. in 2008 it was 39-32-29. in 2004, it was 37-37-26.
Click to expand...

Clinging onto pundits and trying to discern current vote? I have no clue who is going to win btw.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
AniHawk said:
one interesting question asked of the abc lv is who they think will win the election, and 52% say obama while 40% say romney. that might be the largest discrepancy in all the polling there. the demographics split into 34-30-31. in 2008 it was 39-32-29. in 2004, it was 37-37-26.
Click to expand...
Isn't the "who do you think will win" question a better indicator of who actually wins?
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
I'm thinking.. we've seen this pattern over the past few weeks where Romney has a narrow-but-distinct national edge and Obama has maintained a narrow-but-distinct Electoral College edge. Both sides of the race have been examined by 538 and Princeton, with especially similar results for their Electoral College forecasts.

We've seen a few national polls showing that there is indeed a demonstrable differential between certain deep red states and the rest of the country to the point where these states may well be tilting national numbers for Romney, thus distorting the status of the Electoral College contest.

If this apparent discrepancy hasn't sorted itself out by now after all of this time has passed, why does it have to sort itself out going into Election Day?
 
RiccochetJ

RiccochetJ

Gold Member
HylianTom said:
I'm thinking.. we've seen this pattern over the past few weeks where Romney has a narrow-but-distinct national edge and Obama has maintained a narrow-but-distinct Electoral College edge. Both sides of the race have been examined by 538 and Princeton, with especially similar results for their Electoral College forecasts.

We've seen a few national polls showing that there is indeed a demonstrable differential between certain deep red states and the rest of the country to the point where these states may well be tilting national numbers for Romney, thus distorting the status of the Electoral College contest.

If this apparent discrepancy hasn't sorted itself out by now after all of this time has passed, why does it have to sort itself out going into Election Day?
Click to expand...

Because nothing matters until election day?
 
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