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[SmokeMaxX]

I'm not convinced that the controversy over the ad will do anything, but we'll see how people feel...

 

[RiccochetJ]

Yeah, I'm not a fan. Thank god it's just a worthless web ad

Why is it bad? I liked it.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Obama is up 50.6 to 44.6 in Rand

DOOM

That's Obama's best showing in that poll, also.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Why is it bad? I liked it.

Comparing your first time having sex to your first time voting? Eh... not gonna go over well, especially among conservatives.

 

[RiccochetJ]

Comparing your first time having sex to your first time voting? Eh... not gonna go over well, especially among conservatives.

Because they're going to change their mind in this climate.

 

[AniHawk]

rand-prediction: either stays level or drops by 1 point. i don't think it'll go far beyond 4 points for the rest of the election cycle.

Obama is up 50.6 to 44.6 in Rand

DOOM

That's Obama's best showing in that poll, also.

hey what the fuck? they're early. and i can't see it!

 

[Keio]

The conservatives who get their panties in a bunch over the ad wouldn't vote Obama in any case. This is a GOTV ad for young fans of Girls, no harm in doing it.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Lol. New Obama ad- some controversy going on with it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=o6G3nwhPuR4

.......................................................................

 

[Aaron Strife]

rand-prediction: either stays level or drops by 1 point. i don't think it'll go far beyond 4 points for the rest of the election cycle.



hey what the fuck? they're early. and i can't see it!

Click data at the bottom. It shows up there.

I saw someone post it on dailykos at first so I was worried I may have just gotten trolled but it's like 50.56 for Obama and 44.6 for Romney.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Obama is up 50.6 to 44.6 in Rand

DOOM

That's Obama's best showing in that poll, also.

Where do you see this? I was just on their website and I didn't see those results.

Because they're going to change their mind in this climate.

Hardcore conservatives may not, but you don't have to be a die-hard Republican to be conservative about your values on sex- especially with Republicans labeling Obama as someone who trivializes sex (by encouraging sex education).

 

[AniHawk]

Click data at the bottom. It shows up there.

oh. well damn.

well, can't see obama hitting much higher highs than this without things aiming for 2008 territory.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Another rand outlier

 

[Aaron Strife]

oh. well damn.

well, can't see obama hitting much higher highs than this without things aiming for 2008 territory.

A repeat of 2008 would be nice. It'd be pretty unprecedented for the polls to not pick up on that, then again you have bizarre shit like 6 point spreads between RV and LV polls. I know ABC's screen is pretty tight.

 

[Lost Fragment]

Obama will lose 2% of the no-humor female vote because of that ad.

Probably no big deal really, but the Romney camp should be at the point where they'll throw anything at the wall to see it if sticks, and the media at current seems happy to help them. I wouldn't be surprised to turn on my TV and see Wolf Blitzer talking about it tomorrow.

Guess it's a good thing Romney has his own video endorsing a dude who says rape is the will of God, lol.

 

[BuggyDClown]

.......................................................................

Hahaha

 

[RiccochetJ]

Hardcore conservatives may not, but you don't have to be a die-hard Republican to be conservative about your values on sex- especially with Republicans labeling Obama as someone who trivializes sex (by encouraging sex education).

Sex education is trivializing sex among the non-hardcore? Son of a bitch. I should let people know.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

A repeat of 2008 would be nice. It'd be pretty unprecedented for the polls to not pick up on that, then again you have bizarre shit like 6 point spreads between RV and LV polls. I know ABC's screen is pretty tight.

I wonder if we should expect polls to start to converge as we get closer to election day.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Sex education is trivializing sex among the non-hardcore? Son of a bitch. I should let people know.

What state do you live in? My class didn't even have sex education because of religious conservatives (probably why I'm here on Neogaf right now).

 

[Aaron Strife]

I wonder if we should expect polls to start to converge as we get closer to election day.

I'd be totally cool if Gallup started showing an Obama lead on the LV side.

Just saying.

Don't make Obama sic his Chicago thugs on you, Newport.

 

[RiccochetJ]

What state do you live in? My class didn't even have sex education because of religious conservatives (probably why I'm here on Neogaf right now).

Colorado. Religious people were allowed to leave the room.

 

[Black Mamba]

Holy fuck at RAND.

50.5-44.5

Yowzers

 

[AniHawk]

rand seems to have a huge amount of obama supporters. it ticks up 0.28% in intention to vote, and 0.4% in predicted winner, and it gives him an extra point overall.

it looks like it's the romney-to-obama stuff is what's driving the numbers apart at the moment.

 

[Black Mamba]

rand seems to have a huge amount of obama supporters. it ticks up 0.28% in intention to vote, and 0.4% in predicted winner, and it gives him an extra point overall.

it looks like it's the romney-to-obama stuff is what's driving the numbers apart at the moment.

It also is showing those under $50k more likely to vote for him. He's gone from 50% to 56% in this category in the last few days. That spread is significant since it's like half the electorate.

 

[Keio]

Obama is up 50.6 to 44.6 in Rand

DOOM

That's Obama's best showing in that poll, also.

Unrecoverable situation for Obama. Very hard to explain the Rand vs Gallup gap. Cell phones? Latinos? Wonky LV models? Flawed weighting? UNSKEW!

 

[AniHawk]

re: gallup

anyone have an estimate on when the last few good days for romney were?

with rv and lv hanging in there today and yesterday, i think we're seeing relatively good obama numbers this week, with strong romney numbers hanging on from last week.

 

[AniHawk]

Unrecoverable situation for Obama. Very hard to explain the Rand vs Gallup gap. Cell phones? Latinos? Wonky LV models? Flawed weighting? UNSKEW!

rand is an online survey. i think those are generally not as impressive as automated calls, and automated calls are not as impressive as live calls.

also, you're not guaranteed to always get the same 500 people to respond every week. although, while rand is kind of a noisy graph, it does show where the trends have been in the election cycle fairly well.

 

[Ecotic]

Outlier or not, as Nate said if Romney was actually having momentum he wouldn't be having conflicting tracking polls. If Romney was moving he'd have at least like 6 of the 8 tracking polls showing gains for him.

 

[Black Mamba]

rand is an online survey. i think those are generally not as impressive as automated calls, and automated calls are not as impressive as live calls.

also, you're not guaranteed to always get the same 500 people to respond every week. although, while rand is kind of a noisy graph, it does show where the trends have been in the election cycle fairly well.

It's 3500 per week, the same 500 each X day of the week.

Also, RAND isn't noisy. That's its advantage. By polling the same people every X day of the week any movement represents a real change and not noise. At least among the sample.

It would be real nice if tomorrow the LV for Gallup closes to 1, ABC moves to 1, Reuters shifts back to Obama +1, and IDB expands its lead for O. If all these things happen, we have to start thinking that Obama is gaining the ground in the polling.

Knowing Gallup it will go back to +5 Romney.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Polls were too much for unskewedpolls.com
I keep getting this error:

The connection was reset

The connection to the server was reset while the page was loading.

 

[Black Mamba]

Polls were too much for unskewedpolls.com
I keep getting this error:

Bad News for Unskewers.

 

[Mario]

Polls were too much for unskewedpolls.com
I keep getting this error:

Divert power from the shields to the unskew engines!

 

[HylianTom]

A new CBS/Quinnipiac Ohio poll:
50-45, O+5

This is a new poll, per the article.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_1...ut-for-votes-in-ohio/?tag=AverageHero;leadHed

edited: a horribly-worded article. probably not new? no dancing. too tired anyway.

 

[AniHawk]

Anyone want some Hopium?

A new CBS/Quinnipiac Ohio poll:
50-45, O+5

This is a new poll, per the article.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_1...ut-for-votes-in-ohio/?tag=AverageHero;leadHed

early voting must be making up a lot of points there, because everything else does not favor obama at all.

no shift in this poll from last week though.

 

[Officerrob]

Anyone want some Hopium?

A new CBS/Quinnipiac Ohio poll:
50-45, O+5

This is a new poll, per the article.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_1...ut-for-votes-in-ohio/?tag=AverageHero;leadHed

I think that article is referring to their poll from last week

 

[Aaron Strife]

They're probably referring to the last Quinnipiac poll of Ohio, which had Obama up 50-45.

 

[RiccochetJ]

Anyone want some Hopium?

A new CBS/Quinnipiac Ohio poll:
50-45, O+5

This is a new poll, per the article.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_1...ut-for-votes-in-ohio/?tag=AverageHero;leadHed

This circle jerk is reaching reddit levels.

 

[HylianTom]

I think that article is referring to their poll from last week

I was wondering. Something is incredibly hinky about how they've worded the article. Who edited it? Did anyone?

Cancel the dancing.. for now. We can dance when the purple poll parade arrives later today.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

What are everyone's thoughts on how the storm will affect the election?

 

[AniHawk]

I think that article is referring to their poll from last week

on closer inspection, i think it refers back to the cbs poll from last week (the numbers match up), but starts off by indirectly referring to time's poll from yesterday (which was also obama +5)

What are everyone's thoughts on how the storm will affect the election?

well, it's really hitting the blue states pretty hard. probably won't affect ohio or iowa a whole lot.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

well, it's really hitting the blue states pretty hard. probably won't affect ohio or iowa a whole lot.

I read that it could actually affect states that far in. However, if GOTV is that successful, won't this be better for Obama? He's up in early voting in most states already and if the storm makes it difficult to vote on election day, won't that mean automatic win?

 

[Keio]

What are everyone's thoughts on how the storm will affect the election?

Some voter registrations might get blown away by the wind.

 

[BuggyDClown]

I read that it could actually affect states that far in. However, if GOTV is that successful, won't this be better for Obama? He's up in early voting in most states already and if the storm makes it difficult to vote on election day, won't that mean automatic win?

Man I love early voting.

Every state should have it, and voting should be open 2 weeks minimum leading up to final election day. Especially since it's not a real national holiday so everyone has to work still. At least those of us in the 47%

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Some voter registrations might get blown away by the wind.

Only in Ohio I imagine.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Man I love early voting.

Every state should have it, and voting should be open 2 weeks minimum leading up to final election day. Especially since it's not a real national holiday so everyone has to work still. At least those of us in the 47%

If Minnesota gets a Democratic House and Senate (probable) I hope they pass early voting. And also something to counteract the (most likely being passed) voter ID law, like maybe being able to sign up for a temp one at the polls or something.

 

[BuggyDClown]

If Minnesota gets a Democratic House and Senate (probable) I hope they pass early voting. And also something to counteract the (most likely being passed) voter ID law, like maybe being able to sign up for a temp one at the polls or something.

I think it will significantly help with the youth vote as well

 

[cartoon_soldier]

The main thing LV models could be missing these days is that newly registered voters may not show up on their RV lists yet.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

I think we'll hit OT6 before the election. Two bad polls on different days should do it...

 

[Beer Monkey]

I think we'll hit OT6 before the election. Two bad polls on different days should do it...

Tom Cruise will be jealous. I hear he is only an OT5.

 

[HylianTom]

I think we'll hit OT6 before the election. Two bad polls on different days should do it...

Today should be pretty poll-heavy, too.

That, and as we draw closer to Election Day and things get more frantic, there's still room for goofy surrogate commentary on both sides.

 

[Black Mamba]

I don't understand that CBS article.


That article says women are tied 47-47 but Romney is winning 47-42 among men.

How is Obama up 5!? Did cats get the right to vote in Ohio?


(both the last CBS poll and Times poll have big leads among women for Obama, BTW)