http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/...g-candidate-backbone-024350047--election.htmlThe surprise visitor: the rock star turned occasional actor Meat Loaf.
Dressed in a baggy black suit accented with multicolor sequins, the singer, who rose to fame from his star turn in "The Rocky Horror Picture Show," dramatically stormed the stage to the shock of many of those in the audience, who turned to each other with questioning faces.
The aging rocker, perhaps best known for his 1994 hit "I'd Do Anything for Love (But I Won't Do That)," performed a series of power ballads familiar only to the most devoted Meat Loaf fans. In between, he offered a meandering and sometimes slurred endorsement of the GOP nominee, explaining that he'd never before publicly backed a political candidate.
'This is the most important election in the history of the United States," Meat Loaf explained. "Because there has storm clouds come over the United States. There is thunderstorms over Europe. There are hail storms--and I mean major hail storms--in the Middle East. There are storms brewing through China, through Asia, through everywhere I want you to know there is one man who will stand tall in this country and fight the storm and bring the United States back to what it should be. Gov. Mitt Romney!"
Romney, the singer continued after another song, has "backbone." He urged the audience to contact Democrats and ask them to back Romney's bid for the presidency--adding that he'd been doing the same "for a year."
If Romney could win Wis. It would probably lead to NH being the state to decide the election
Well in general it is not likely that someone wins the Presidency without winning Ohio, all I am saying is he does have a path.
If Obama takes Florida (and VA for that matter), the news media STILL has to wait until California is called to declare Obama the next President right? Or can they say "well these states are solid blue so we can project..."
If Obama takes Florida (and VA for that matter), the news media STILL has to wait until California is called to declare Obama the next President right? Or can they say "well these states are solid blue so we can project..."
If Obama takes Florida (and VA for that matter), the news media STILL has to wait until California is called to declare Obama the next President right? Or can they say "well these states are solid blue so we can project..."
Meat Loaf backs Romney, citing the candidate’s ‘backbone’
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/...g-candidate-backbone-024350047--election.html
They have to wait. They can't call the election until the polls close on enough states to give him 270.
If Obama takes Florida (and VA for that matter), the news media STILL has to wait until California is called to declare Obama the next President right? Or can they say "well these states are solid blue so we can project..."
Meat Loaf backs Romney, citing the candidates backbone
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/...g-candidate-backbone-024350047--election.html
Yeah, they won't call it. Which is what will make it so delicious for those fans of schadenfreude. If Obama wins VA, OH, or FL, then it is pretty much over and you can run around and watch people meltdown as they slowly realize it is slipping away.
I feel like people wish the Electoral College were much more exciting than it was. New Hampshire is the deciding state only when Romney wins every swing state except for Ohio, Nevada and Wisconsin. That's a lot of very different states he needs to overperform in.
Why bother to wish for Wisconsin? California would be better -- he'd win decisively in a heartbreaker hours after everybody else thought the election was over! Romney's never come close to a lead in Wisconsin.
Romney is putting money into Wisconsin. Lets say he does loes Ohio narrowly but is leading the popular vote. The real clear average has the race at about 2-3 points in Wisconsin. Assuming Nevada stays with Obama, Wisconsin is what Romney needs to get to 270. Not realistic but he at least has somewhat of a shot at it if he is winning the popular vote.
One should be cautiously optimistic or somewhat nervous until the aggregate national polling is leaning 2+ Obama. Without it, there's justified worry.
Romney is putting money into Wisconsin.
Lets say he does loes Ohio narrowly but is leading the popular vote. The real clear average has the race at about 2-3 points in Wisconsin. Assuming Nevada stays with Obama, Wisconsin is what Romney needs to get to 270. Not likely but he at least has somewhat of a shot at it if he is winning the popular vote.
FL, NH, VA, IA, CO.
...yeah, I don't think so either.
Damn...Rachel thinks that WI is redder than people think and OH is bluer than people think.
One should be cautiously optimistic or somewhat nervous until the aggregate national polling is leaning 2+ Obama. Without it, there's justified worry.
any particular reason for this assertion?
And what is it right now?
Why should we care about national polling?
Ground game and the comparison of the recall election in Wisconsin to the union stuff that happened in Ohio.
Why should we care about national polling?
Ground game and the comparison of the recall election in Wisconsin to the union stuff that happened in Ohio.
I don't think you can compare a special election to a presidential one. IA is probably tighter than WI just because of the demographics
He's making trips to Nevada, too.
I'm just saying that there are a lot of swing states you can make a way better case for Romney winning than Wisconsin. Both the fundamentals and the polls are unequivocably against him, so you're basically just saying "But I want him to!"
The main reason is that this is one of the first times national and swing state polling has diverged so dramatically. Usually swing state polls match national polls because the whole reason they're swing states is that they're microcosms of the electorate.
Nate Silver hasn't quite said this, but you can piece together that Mamba is just saying what 538's saying -- if the national polls were matching the swing state polls (which would be +2 Obama), Obama would still be a 95-99% chance to win. The divergence causes the popular vote to get weighted up and the swing state votes to get weighted down.
edit: To put that slightly differently, it's not that national polling matters so much as that it suggests the system is more complicated than it appears.
Sounds like a load of shit. More specifically it sounds exactly like every other typical conservative caricature of Obama and Biden. Cartoonishly so.http://www.theblaze.com/stories/joe...-son-always-have-balls-the-size-of-cue-balls/
I'm not going to criticize a grieving father, although it's clear he wasn't an Obama fan before or after this; his comments on how he felt Obama and Clinton's interactions weren't genuine strikes me as a matter of internal bias. But the Biden comment, if true...jesus christ
What's worse is that people like him are being exploited to turn this story into something it's not. It's disgusting.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/joe...-son-always-have-balls-the-size-of-cue-balls/
I'm not going to criticize a grieving father, although it's clear he wasn't an Obama fan before or after this; his comments on how he felt Obama and Clinton's interactions weren't genuine strikes me as a matter of internal bias. But the Biden comment, if true...jesus christ
What's worse is that people like him are being exploited to turn this story into something it's not. It's disgusting.
Sounds like a load of shit. More specifically it sounds exactly like every other typical conservative caricature of Obama and Biden. Cartoonishly so.
Obama needs to make up a shit ton of ground in less than 2 weeks in order to be 2 points ahead, nationally.
Gallup, for example, still has him at a major deficit.
If we go into next week with some or most of the swing states showing narrow-but-definite Obama advantages while the national numbers retain their slight Romney tilt.. oh man..
I wonder if Obama's team is preparing their talking points for such a situation.
It is very likely that the national polls swing in Obama's favor in the next few days or that the state polls swing in Romney's favor. What we have right now is the least likely scenario. Romney by the aggregate of polls is roughly a point ahead nationally but still losing the electoral college.
More than likely the national polls will swing in Obama's favor. He's ahead in the state polls and most show him tied nationally.
Not necessarily. It depends on the likely voter models. Gallup, for instance, has major swings the final 2 weeks the last few cycles. Gore was up like 13 with 2 weeks to go in 2000.
For all we know the race may be Obama +2 right now but a couple pollsters are fucking up their LV model which becomes rectified as a lot of RV switch to LV as election night nears.
Take that ABC poll putting Romney up 3. They only count "certain to vote" as likely voters and ignore "probably will vote" as well as "50/50." Those probably to vote will tend to become certain to votes in 8 days or so, I'd wager. And some of those 50/50 (or half) will vote.
Once turnout becomes more obvious in a week we'll have a better understanding. If the state polling is accurate right now, I'd expect it to shift to Obama +2 or so. Unless we're going to get unprecedented worthless voting in the South, I think it has to shift that way.
Still, Obama being well below 50% in most tracking polls is a problem, especially this close to election day. Plus that ABC poll shows a huge Romney lead among independents
An acceptance speech where the national vote doesn't go their way would be pretty interesting. The bad thing is it would give the republican house another talking point to block everything the next 2 years and the american people would probably agree with them unfortunately.
I honestly believe the LV models are missing a lot of Dem turnout. As well as hispanic issues with polling and lack of cell phones among some. I believe we'll see Obama up 2 a few days before the election in aggregate.
But if not, I'm going to be a bit worried.
Still, Obama being well below 50% in most tracking polls is a problem, especially this close to election day. Plus that ABC poll shows a huge Romney lead among independents
Well, I don't really know why the pop vote is factored in to begin with considering that it means nothing (even if it usually is signficant for how swing states will go). If the non swing states swung even harder red or blue than normal it makes complete sense why there is a bigger than normal divergence.
It is interesting to watch all this though because everyone (in the media) seems so sure this election is a toss up at this point when it's really not.
I honestly believe the LV models are missing a lot of Dem turnout. As well as hispanic issues with polling and lack of cell phones among some. I believe we'll see Obama up 2 a few days before the election in aggregate.
The two bolded don't make sense.
You think the LV models are flawed but yet you would be worried if the polls don't reflect that.
I don't get it.
I'm wondering whether LV models are just not dealing well with early voters. I think there's a real possibility that it will turn out national tracking polls are just kind of outdated, also.
I should have clarified this better.
I think this far out from the election the LV models underscore Democrat turnout (this cycle). But I think a lot of people who are "probably" and "maybe" going to vote become likely voters the last 5 days of the campaign. The model doesn't change but the respondents change their likelihood of voting and the models represent this.
Which is why we see big swings.
But if this doesn't happen in 8-10 days from now, I'm going to be worried a bit because it means I could be wrong about my assumption and too many normally Dem supporters are staying home.