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[Hobbestetrician]

I know everything is a bellweather until it isn't (cue that comic strip) but Nevada has only failed to vote for the winner once since 1912 (Carter in '76), which is a better track record than Ohio (though both are needed this time around).

 

[PhoenixDark]

Must not be pushing leaners.

There was an article yesterday about LV models screening out "possible" and leaner voters, seems to apply here.

I have a feeling a lot of these LV models are going to be wrong due to OFA carting the most unlikely voters to the polls

 

[Cloudy]

They are using it. You probably caught he site as it was updating. It's in there now.

More good state polling.

I don't see it

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

 

[MetatronM]

Ralston has refused to call the presidential race in Nevada, saying it's still possible though unlikely for Romney to make a comeback. I think he's suggesting, well, maybe it's not any more.

If Obama has Nevada locked up already leading into election day, that's a huge advantage. If you assume Nevada is safe, then Obama's easiest path becomes "Ohio + any other swing state other than Iowa or New Hampshire." He also wins outright with a Florida win regardless of any other swing state. And he has no fewer than 5 other possible winning paths in the event that he loses Ohio.

 

[coldfoot]

Is Purple strategies non-partisan?
Also holy crap at the voting distribution by education. Non-college educated people voting for Romney...

 

[Trurl]

OWS hasn't helped the cause. I supported them in the beginning but no longer.

OWS needed to be more explicitly political. The TEA Party did more while being angry about nothing coherent than OWS did while being angry about what is quite probably the most important domestic issue of our time.

Perhaps after the 2012 election we should adopt some TEA Party tactics and make moves on primary elections on a narrow band of issues. Mostly the aforementioned class inequality and perhaps the perpetuation of the war on terror under Obama.

I do consider myself to be a social liberal, but one problem with the socially liberal aspect of the Democratic Party is that it focuses too much on attracting particular groups based on relatively narrow interests. Those issues shouldn't be abandoned, but class inequality should have a potential to reach a far broader swath of society and should be put front and center of the agenda. Basically, I would like to see white blue-collar men come home.

 

[Aaron Strife]

"Um, about that call..."

What call is he talking about?

Some republican bitched at him on voicemail and said Republicans were crushing Democrats in early voting, because Democrats' early voting advantage was slightly smaller than in 08

 

[markatisu]

Is Purple strategies non-partisan?
Also holy crap at the voting distribution by education. Non-college educated people voting for Romney...

They lean right

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Good for you, man

Thanks bro.

 

[Angry Grimace]

If Obama has Nevada locked up already leading into election day, that's a huge advantage. If you assume Nevada is safe, then Obama's easiest path becomes "Ohio + any other swing state other than Iowa or New Hampshire." He also wins outright with a Florida win regardless of any other swing state. And he has no fewer than 5 other possible winning paths in the event that he loses Ohio.

Obama taking Florida would be an early night, but I don't see it being particularly likely, even with polling close.

 

[TacticalFox88]

OWS needed to be more explicitly political. The TEA Party did more while being angry about nothing coherent than OWS did while being angry about what is quite probably the most important domestic issue of our time.

Perhaps after the 2012 election we should adopt some TEA Party tactics and make moves on primary elections on a narrow band of issues. Mostly the aforementioned class inequality and perhaps the perpetuation of the war on terror under Obama.

I do consider myself to be a social liberal, but one problem with the socially liberal aspect of the Democratic Party is that it focuses too much on attracting particular groups based on relatively narrow interests. Those issues shouldn't be abandoned, but class inequality should have a potential to reach a far broader swath of society and should be put front and center of the agenda. Basically, I would like to see white blue-collar men come home.

If OWS had the same impact the Tea party did on the 2010 elections, the amount of things Obama could've gotten done in his second term without worrying about re-election could've been incalculable.


Missed moment of awesome indeed.

 

[daedalius]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/romney-campaign-appears-to-exaggerate-size-of-neva

Romney campaigns uses l33t photoshop skills to make Nevada rally appear larger

Showed this to my wife last night, such an awful photoshop.

Did their graphics dept. even try? Secret Obama supporter obviously.

"Hah, I'll make this the most obvious shop ever!"

 

[Zero-Crescent]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/romney-campaign-appears-to-exaggerate-size-of-neva

Romney campaigns uses l33t photoshop skills to make Nevada rally appear larger

Then this must be a closeup of the crowd:

Spoiler

(Screenshot of Eureka Seven AO originally posted by duckroll in the Summer 2012 Anime thread)

 

[NihonTiger90]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/romney-campaign-appears-to-exaggerate-size-of-neva

Romney campaigns uses l33t photoshop skills to make Nevada rally appear larger

That's about the worst photoshop attempt I've ever seen.

 

[GhaleonEB]

The eight national trackers published today show Obama +0.2% on average. (Was Romney +0.2% yesterday).

Mittmentum.

 

[Jackson50]

Isn't it possible the 30,000 could be for a cross state ad market buy? I think there was some evidence of Obama and Romney spending money in California due to the proximity to Nevada but no one is entertaining the thought (outside of a joke) of California getting flipped. Minnesota borders 2 hotly contested swings states.

Yes. I think that's the likeliest explanation. I was simply mocking cartoon_soldier's tired sensationalism.

Donnelly's internal

Mourdock's internal

And just for fun: Heitkamp internal showing her up 4

Thanks. More polling would be welcome. It'd be foolhardy two infer anything from two internal polls. But it's slightly encouraging.

 

[Black Mamba]

I don't see it

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

I see the ibd poll. Clear your cookies perhaps?

 

[Hobbestetrician]

Mittmentum.

Momittum

 

[djplaeskool]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/romney-campaign-appears-to-exaggerate-size-of-neva



Surge! LMAO

VOTE ROMNENEY/RYAN!

My god this is horrible.

 

[grkazan12]

Didn't have time to quote because I'm posting froma phone, but a really awesome read from Ezra Klein about the importance of the ACA in regards to this election and how it will be one of the defining features of the Obama administration.

Obama better win this election, he has too see the ACA to its full completion.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...portant-issue-of-this-election-health-reform/

 

[Marvie_3]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/romney-campaign-appears-to-exaggerate-size-of-neva

Romney campaigns uses l33t photoshop skills to make Nevada rally appear larger

Pathetic :lol :lol

 

[Cloudy]

I see the ibd poll. Clear your cookies perhaps?

IBD is different from Reuters/Ipsos. The last time they used Reuters was September

 

[RiccochetJ]

Why do you all continue to fellate the pollsters? You can gauge for sure, but some of you seem to think that this is an absolute reality.

 

[Paches]

Mittmentum.

Second headline on HuffPo.

"National Polls Show Romney Uptick"

Lawl.

 

[pigeon]

Why do you all continue to fellate the pollsters? You can gauge for sure, but some of you seem to think that this is an absolute reality.

I'm not sure what you mean. How are we going to judge the state of the race if not through polls?

 

[Aaron Strife]

Thanks. More polling would be welcome. It'd be foolhardy two infer anything from two internal polls. But it's slightly encouraging.

Well, with those two states we don't have much option since they ban robopolling.

 

[3rdman]

Didn't have time to quote because I'm posting froma phone, but a really awesome read from Ezra Klein about the importance of the ACA in regards to this election and how it will be one of the defining features of the Obama administration.

Obama better win this election, he has too see the ACA to its full completion.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...portant-issue-of-this-election-health-reform/

This is honestly the ONLY reason I might worry on election night...It takes a special kind of stupid to want to repeal it.

 

[Lambtron]

And just for fun: Heitkamp internal showing her up 4

This makes me feel somewhat better. This story this morning in Fargo was pretty amusing. Some shady PAC headed up by one of old friend Rick Perry's former campaign staff members illegally placed a number of signs on the boulevards over night. I saw them driving in to work this morning. Pretty amusing. And again: the only thing the Berg campaign can run on is trying to connect Heitkamp to Obummer.

 

[speculawyer]

WTF...Minnesota. Really?

Minnesota advertising also overlaps into Wisconsin. So it may be a cheaper way of buying ads for the Wisconsin market. Of course, they really don't need to advertise much there either.

Edit: Oh Jeez, I reply to something on my screen and it turns out it was already discussed to death and is 4 pages back!

 

[Ecotic]

Obama winning Florida or Virginia may not make for the early night many hope for. These states take a long time to come in fully. In the 2006 Senate race in Virginia with Jim Webb and George Allen it took until the morning for the DC metro vote to come in fully and for Webb to be declared the winner. Virginia will probably be that close again in the Presidential election this year. Florida is also a long wait as the networks declare it "too close to call" when the polls close and so we have to wait for many hours as they grind along with the counting.

Even if Obama wins Virginia or Florida it's likely that a smaller State with a healthier, clearer Obama lead is the State that is projected to give Obama 270 on the networks before the counting is done in Virginia or Florida.

 

[RiccochetJ]

I'm not sure what you mean. How are we going to judge the state of the race if not through polls?

Tell me the sample size and the areas that they surveyed. Tell me the questions that they asked.

Again, I'm not talking about the people who think that the results are encouraging. I'm talking about the impression I'm getting around here that people think it's going one way or the other based off of these results.

 

[Black Mamba]

Obama winning Florida or Virginia may not make for the early night many hope for. These states take a long time to come in fully. In the 2006 Senate race in Virginia with Jim Webb and George Allen it took until the morning for the DC metro vote to come in fully and for Webb to be declared the winner. Virginia will probably be that close again in the Presidential election this year. Florida is also a long wait as the networks declare it "too close to call" when the polls close and so we have to wait for many hours as they grind along with the counting.

Even if Obama wins Virginia or Florida it's likely that a smaller State with a healthier, clearer Obama lead is the State that is projected to give Obama 270 on the networks before the counting is done in Virginia or Florida.

It will depend on exit polling. I expect florida to be pretty close so I don't expect it to be called early at all. Va has potential, though.

IBD is different from Reuters/Ipsos. The last time they used Reuters was September

Oh, I misread, then. Thought you said IBD.

They took out Ipsos? Lame.

 

[Cloudy]

Mike Elk ‏@MikeElk

Wynn Resorts CEO Tells His 12,000 Employees to Vote GOP http://huff.to/TeN1DB

This shit is getting ridiculous

 

[Cheebo]

Want to hear a secret? I think Obama will probably win.

 

[Cloudy]

They took out Ipsos? Lame.

It seems they stopped using them as soon as they went to a daily tracker.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Second headline on HuffPo.

"National Polls Show Romney Uptick"

Lawl.

First comment:

Mitt Romney is not overtaking Barack Obama by narrow margins. Romney has overtaking Obama by large margins. Those polling data companies are still oversampling Democrats by upwards of 10 percentage points just to make it look close. This also tells us that Romney has won over the vast majority of Independent voters.

Let's face it. The economy is in shambles and Obama has a string of broken promises. Obama has absolutely nothing to run on nor can he can state what he will do differently in the next 4 years. And for a man with no personal skills or negotiating skills or leadership skills, how can he show he can work with the GOP controlled House when he has ignored them the last 2 years? And Benghazi-gate is still growing with news out from a Navy Seal stating the State Department told them to "Stand Down" and not aid the consulate in Libya when it was under attack. This an easy call for a Reagan-Carter type landslide win for Romney. This is will be a huge lopsided Romney win.

unskewed.jpg

obamahasnorecord.jpg

 

[Bowdz]

Didn't have time to quote because I'm posting froma phone, but a really awesome read from Ezra Klein about the importance of the ACA in regards to this election and how it will be one of the defining features of the Obama administration.

Obama better win this election, he has too see the ACA to its full completion.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...portant-issue-of-this-election-health-reform/

Among the many, many reasons why I voted for Obama again. What boggles my mind is that the GOP/Romney have campaigned on repealing the ACA and then replace it with their "better" version and yet they completely ignore the enormity of challenge that getting the ACA passed in the first place was. When it passed, Obama still had high approval ratings and Dems controlled the House and had 60 seats in the Senate and yet it still took every ounce of political capital Obama had to get it done (and it cost the Dems in the midterms).

If Romney got elected, first up on the docket would be dealing with the Sequestration and Tax hike issue regardless of what Obama does in the lame duck. Both issues will be extremely polarizing politically and will require a constant give and take to get anywhere on them. I doubt by the time both issues are settled, either party is going to be feeling particularly great about conceding more ground so even if the GOP took the Senate and repealed the ACA through reconciliation, how would they replace it? I find it hard to believe that Dems would go along with it in any capacity seeing as the ACA cost them so much political ground to get passed in the first place. The notion that somehow, Romney would come in, be forced to deal with some fairly toxic issues immediately, and then somehow successfully repeal and replace the ACA is completely ridiculous.

To quote Mr. Clinton: "This whole thing is the biggest fairy tale I've ever seen."

 

[Paches]

Joe Scarborough calls the election for Romney because "Obama isn't doing well in the national polls".

 

[pigeon]

Tell me the sample size and the areas that they surveyed. Tell me the questions that they asked.

Again, I'm not talking about the people who think that the results are encouraging. I'm talking about the impression I'm getting around here that people think it's going one way or the other based off of these results.

Most of that information is available by clicking through to the internals. What I would note is that if the polls were biased in some way by a methodological defect, as you seem to be suggesting, then they would be outliers in the collection of polls, and so we'd pay them less attention. These polls aren't intrinsically determinative, but they factor into a polling average that is more so.

 

[AniHawk]

has there been a situation where all the state polls show an electoral lead for x and the national polls show a popular lead for y, but the end result was a electoral win for y?

 

[RiccochetJ]

This shit is getting ridiculous

Because he'll know how they voted and directly fire the ones who didn't go along with his plan.

 

[Cloudy]

I didn't know ARG put out an OH poll today

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/OH12-3.html

49-47 Obama

 

[Y2Kev]

diablos wants polls of CA

 

[Clevinger]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/romney-campaign-appears-to-exaggerate-size-of-neva

Romney Campaign appears to have photoshopped the size of Nevada crowd to make it appear larger

Surge! LMAO

Truly the North Korea of presidential campaigns.

 

[pigeon]

Because he'll know how they voted and directly fire the ones who didn't go along with his plan.

I kind of think it's a bad thing for democracy for employers to tell their employees how to vote even if it's difficult for them to enforce.

 

[Cheebo]

has there been a situation where all the state polls show an electoral lead for x and the national polls show a popular lead for y, but the end result was a electoral win for y?

If I recall correctly Bush had a lead in the national polls while Gore had a strong path for 270 EC's. The last minute reveal of Bush's DUI mixed that all up though.

 

[BotoxAgent]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/romney-campaign-appears-to-exaggerate-size-of-neva

Romney campaigns uses l33t photoshop skills to make Nevada rally appear larger

Romney Ryan! Romney Ryan!!

 

[daedalius]

I didn't know ARG put out an OH poll today

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/OH12-3.html

49-47 Obama

Bad news for Obama.

 

[RiccochetJ]

I kind of think it's a bad thing for democracy for employers to tell their employees how to vote even if it's difficult for them to enforce.

Employers and employees should be allowed to talk about their political affiliation and the reasons behind why they do. Some are only able to talk while others can send out documents.

If I find out that a person was explicitly fired for their decision in the voting booth then I'll have a problem. Until then, the doc could easily be tossed in the garbage/recycle bin.

 

[Cloudy]

Employers and employees should be allowed to talk about their political affiliation and the reasons behind why they do. Some are only able to talk while others can send out documents.

An employer sending out a voting guide to employees is undue pressure and harassment. I don't like it and I'm not sure it's completely legal