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[Trakdown]

New Nate Silver article is up.

Oct. 25: The State of the States
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/26/oct-25-the-state-of-the-states/

Key sentence:



That's all that matters.

Obama's at 75.9% in the nowcast, >50% chance to win popular vote.

Also, @ppppolls announced a huge final round of polling soon.

 

[thefro]

Just how many polls have been done for Indiana, anyway? I'm not saying Obama could flip it, but with the attention on Mourdock and Romney still endorsing him and combining that with the apparently 50% rise in early voting, that could get interesting.

Rasmussen had it 54-41 Romney and Mourdock up 47-42 over Donnelly about ten days ago. I don't think Mourdock is going to make many people change their Presidential vote in Indiana, but we'll see.

I'd say Romney would still have at least a 7-8 point lead in Indiana at this time.

 

[Averon]

Why is McCain so angry at Powell? It isn't just because of the Obama endorsement, right? Is there some bad blood between McCain and Powell due to Iraq?

 

[syllogism]

I don't really put too much trust into Obama campaign spin either, but I suppose this may be true to some degree

They also say their secret weapon in Wisconsin — a key to Obama’s Midwest-heavy electoral path — is the state’s same-day registration law, with new voters breaking to Obama by a predicted 2-to-1 margin.
That alone could account for as much as a “four-point gain on election day,” an official told POLITICO.

 

[Slime]

So much for Gallup trending back toward Obama, huh? = /

I'm really starting to think that a Romney PV victory is in the cards after all. I'm actually surprised 538 still only has the likelihood of that happening at a mere 30%. Maybe it'll rise.

 

[richiek]

I have this dread that the Obama campaign is going to get rocked by this Libya story. Goddamn it, fuck Pctx.

Please. Romney tried to nail Obama with Libya in the debates and failed miserably. What makes you think it'll work now?

 

[reilo]

New Nate Silver article is up.

Oct. 25: The State of the States
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/26/oct-25-the-state-of-the-states/

Key sentence:

No, these are:

Mr. Romney’s strongest number came in a Fox News poll of Virginia, which had him 2 points ahead there – a sharp reversal from a 7-point advantage there for Mr. Obama before the Denver debate. However, Mr. Romney’s worst poll of the day was probably also in Virginia, where Public Policy Polling showed Mr. Obama’s lead expanding to 5 points from 2.

 

[Darkgran]

Hey guys.

MN's not a toss-up

This.

Minnesota's going Obama. Deal with it.

 

[pigeon]

Nate sez:

However, we may be approaching the point where the state polls will have to be systematically biased toward Mr. Obama in order for Mr. Romney to have strong chances of prevailing on Election Day.

This is really a more dramatic statement than it might look, since the state polls are done by a variety of different pollsters. Nate is saying that Romney's best hope is that there's a fundamental misunderstanding of the electorate that is causing every single poll to misread the state of the game.

In other words, Romney should be hoping that the polls are...skewed.

 

[RDreamer]

I don't really put too much trust into Obama campaign spin either, but I suppose this may be true to some degree

Same day registration is awesome, and it's especially awesome you can do it for early voting. I really fucking hope that Walker and the republicans don't do something about that after this year. I've used same day registration every time I've moved. It's incredibly convenient.

 

[Zabka]

Probably viewers of her show, and just other random people that think it's fun and/or interesting? It's just a web ad, right?

She probably wanted to help out and do an ad for Obama, and that's what she came up with. It probably didn't cost much more than some guy with a decent camera and a couple minutes of her time and some editing. Who gives a fuck?

I give a fuck that the Obama campaign releases lame ads, that's why I said it. The Obama campaigns hard-on for cheesy celebrities continues to baffle me.

 

[eBay Huckster]

I have this dread that the Obama campaign is going to get rocked by this Libya story. Goddamn it, fuck Pctx.

oh, is pctx spouting a bunch of "independent" vomit he found on fox news in OT again

 

[Tim-E]

More polls for WI/MN pls

Obama has a 97% chance of winning Minnesota. Seriously, how on earth can you convince yourself that he's losing that state? There are ELEVEN days left until we vote for a new President and both of these campaigns are sitting on a mountain of money. They need to blow it somewhere because there's likely no more room to air anymore ads in the big swing states. Might as well air some ads in places that neighbor swing states.

 

[Effect]

New Nate Silver article is up.

Oct. 25: The State of the States
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/26/oct-25-the-state-of-the-states/

Key sentence:



That's all that matters.

Indeed. That's all I care about. I want Obama to win and I don't care how he does it as long as he does. As long as state polling stays as it is or continues to get better the averages hold in Obama's favor I don't care what the national polls say because the south and deep red states will go to Romney no matter what and it doesn't matter if he really over performs there.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Obama has a 97% chance of winning Minnesota. Seriously, how on earth can you convince yourself that he's losing that state?

Same way RCP convinced themselves that Gore would lose in a Carter-esque landslide, except on the exact opposite side of the spectrum

 

[RiccochetJ]

oh, is pctx spouting a bunch of "independent" vomit he found on fox news in OT again

If someone is using FOX for any sort of reference, they should be immediately smacked upside the head. Same goes for anyone for uses MSNBC.

 

[pigeon]

I give a fuck that the Obama campaign releases lame ads, that's why I said it. The Obama campaigns hard-on for cheesy celebrities continues to baffle me.

Believe it or not, people like celebrities, especially young people. That's what makes them celebrities in the first place, their ability to get people to go out and do things like spend $30 and three hours sitting in a dark room watching a movie that almost, but not quite, contains boobs. Getting them to vote is probably comparatively straightforward.

 

[Loudninja]

Obama has a 97% chance of winning Minnesota. Seriously, how on earth can you convince yourself that he's losing that state? There are ELEVEN days left until we vote for a new President and both of these campaigns are sitting on a mountain of money. They need to blow it somewhere because there's likely no more room to air anymore ads in the big swing states.

How is it possible that Diablos is acting much worse now?

It has to be a shtick at this point.

 

[Dude Abides]

Why is McCain so angry at Powell? It isn't just because of the Obama endorsement, right? Is there some bad blood between McCain and Powell due to Iraq?

McCain probably still feels betrayed from when Powell went with Obama in 2008.

 

[Diablos]

Hey guys.

MN's not a toss-up

WI may be!

 

[Tim-E]

WI may be!

Obama's not going to lose Wisconsin. Please stop this garbage.

 

[Mgoblue201]

Nate sez:

This is really a more dramatic statement than it might look, since the state polls are done by a variety of different pollsters. Nate is saying that Romney's best hope is that there's a fundamental misunderstanding of the electorate that is causing every single poll to misread the state of the game.

In other words, Romney should be hoping that the polls are...skewed.

I think the prevailing assumption, at least for those who are carefully tracking the polls, is that they are actually underestimating Obama's advantage in the swing states due to several factors (superior ground game, under representation of Latino voters, etc). I think it would be very difficult to argue that there is a systemic bias against Romney in the polls.

 

[eBay Huckster]

If someone is using FOX for any sort of reference, they should be immediately smacked upside the head. Same goes for anyone for uses MSNBC.

I mean, if they're using it as a secondary source to something like the NYT, I'm okay w/ someone using FOX/MSNBC as a citation...

...but Pctx doesn't even do that.

Side note RE: Diablos: I want polls of MN, but for the House instead of the presidential toplines

 

[Zabka]

Believe it or not, people like celebrities, especially young people. That's what makes them celebrities in the first place, their ability to get people to go out and do things like spend $30 and three hours sitting in a dark room watching a movie that almost, but not quite, contains boobs. Getting them to vote is probably comparatively straightforward.

I don't believe it. Can you give an example of a celebrity endorsement that has actually affected this race?

Also if you think people still pay to see boobs you must be 78 years old.

 

[daedalius]

I put my trust in Nate.

But damn I wish this was all done with.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Obama says modest economic growth numbers good.

Romney says, "what a disaster!"

News at 11.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20096380

 

[Aaron Strife]

WI may be!

Closer than MN but 'bams is gonna win there too.

I promise.

 

[pigeon]

I don't believe it. Can you give an example of a celebrity endorsement that has actually affected this race?

 

[Zabka]

I meant in a positive way. If you think celebrities mainly hurt campaigns then I'd agree.

I love all this whining over a web ad.

God forbid we discuss political ads in a political thread.

 

[Tim-E]

I love all this whining over a web ad.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

McCain probably still feels betrayed from when Powell went with Obama in 2008.

Yep. Exactly.

 

[markatisu]

WI may be!

No its not, OH is not, IA is not, and MN is not

Thankfully we only have 2 weeks left, you people are out of your fucking minds I swear

 

[reilo]

No its not, OH is not, IA is not, and MN is not

Thankfully we only have 2 weeks left, you people are out of your fucking minds I swear

The cycle will just repeat itself after inauguration.

 

[RiccochetJ]

I wonder if anyone else on my side thought that was stupid as all fucking hell.

 

[Aaron Strife]

No its not, OH is not, IA is not, and MN is not

Thankfully we only have 2 weeks left, you people are out of your fucking minds I swear

Thank you. some sense.

The cycle will just repeat itself after inauguration.

Who's excited for 2014? WORD UP!

 

[AniHawk]

October 21st. It's listed on 538's Minnesota tab of recent polls

oh. you were talking mn and i was talking wi.

 

[Tim-E]

I'm glad that less people pay attention to midterms because there will be less panic and whining then.

 

[WaltJay]

Can someone, maybe a Minnesotan, explain MN's political leanings? It's the state that has elected Jesse Ventura, Al Franken, Michelle Bachman, Tim Pawlenty, Keith Ellison, and is currently has a 97% chance of being the win column for Obama in this election.

Is MN a solid blue state with a super red district that keeps Bachman employed? I just find it interesting MN elects such a diverse set of politicians. They seem to have the whole spectrum covered.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

McCain Dumps On Powell Again: He ‘Got Us Into Iraq’

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...-again-he-got-us-into-iraq.php?ref=fpnewsfeed

Oh he did it by himself huh?

It was funny seeing McCain blast him about his legacy. At least his legacy won't be bringing in an unqualified woman that torpedoed his campaign. Why are Republican candidates so okay with Affirmative Action at a national office level yet detest it elsewhere?

 

[pigeon]

I meant in a positive way. If you think celebrities mainly hurt campaigns then I'd agree.

I'm not sure how you expect me to produce an example of a celebrity endorsement that helps. But you asked why the Obama campaign was invested in them. Here's my answer: they have lots of data and lots of time to focus group, and based on that data, they thought it was a good idea, and we can presume they thought it was a good idea because it'd win them votes. I'm not sure the fact that you don't like them outweighs the fact that OFA clearly does when we're trying to decide how effective they're likely to be.

 

[Jackson50]

Joe Donnelly has a 7 point lead over Richard Mourdock per his internal.

Mourdock countered by releasing his own internal... Where he's tied!

So I think Donnelly's gonna win this one.

Source?

Obama has a 97% chance of winning Minnesota. Seriously, how on earth can you convince yourself that he's losing that state? There are ELEVEN days left until we vote for a new President and both of these campaigns are sitting on a mountain of money. They need to blow it somewhere because there's likely no more room to air anymore ads in the big swing states. Might as well air some ads in places that neighbor swing states.

What? Romney just purchased $30,000 in ads. That means it's closer than the conventional wisdom.

 

[Black Mamba]

ABC, Reuters, and RAND all moved 2 for Obama. Gallup went 1 for Romney. Ras and ibd nothing.

Silver showed all trackers show tied. Today it's Obama with five his way so far. Need to see the other trackers but so far if others don't change then aggregate is Obama up 0.5.

 

[BertramCooper]

I have this dread that the Obama campaign is going to get rocked by this Libya story. Goddamn it, fuck Pctx.

Foreign policy means fuck-all this election.

And even if it did, killing bin Laden >>> anything to do with Libya.

 

[Wheeljack539]

No its not, OH is not, IA is not, and MN is not

Thankfully we only have 2 weeks left, you people are out of your fucking minds I swear

Its just gonna get worse as the days tick down, and the last 3 weeks haven't been good on my heart and confidence.

 

[Effect]

I don't believe it. Can you give an example of a celebrity endorsement that has actually affected this race?

Also if you think people still pay to see boobs you must be 78 years old.

I don't think it's so much an endorsement but that people will pay attention when a celebrity is on TV. It's why they are used in TV commercials instead of lesser known actors. They're an attention grabber. Use them to grab some viewers attentions and they'll be more likely to listen to what is being said then if it was coming from some unknown voice speaking or from some group they know nothing about.

 

[Tim-E]

Source?What? Romney just purchased $30,000 in ads. That means it's closer than the conventional wisdom.

The Republicans are going to get their payback from dems for the way Minnesota voted during the 1984 election.

 

[Loudninja]

So did Romney give his big speech yet?

 

[Tim-E]

So did Romney give his big speech yet?

Yes. Romney announced that as President he will fully embrace Keynesian economic policy and raise the top tax rate to where it was in 1960.

 

[Clevinger]

ABC, Reuters, and RAND all moved 2 for Obama. Gallup went 1 for Romney. Ras and ibd nothing.

Silver showed all trackers show tied. Today it's Obama with five his way so far. Need to see the other trackers but so far if others don't change then aggregate is Obama up 0.5.

I thought Cheebs said ABC moved toward Romney.

 

[Allard]

Source?What? Romney just purchased $30,000 in ads. That means it's closer than the conventional wisdom.

Isn't it possible the 30,000 could be for a cross state ad market buy? I think there was some evidence of Obama and Romney spending money in California due to the proximity to Nevada but no one is entertaining the thought (outside of a joke) of California getting flipped. Minnesota borders 2 hotly contested swings states.