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[Plinko]

My EC prediction, for what it's worth. (Not much.)

It probably falls on the pessimistic side. I think it could end up being quite a bit wider.

This is my exact electoral map prediction as well.

 

[RDreamer]

Unskewed released some 2012 projections yesterday

Colorado: 54-45 Romney -- a suprise for many still expecting Obama to carry Colorado

Connecticut: 51-47 Obama -- closer than expected, and probably an indication that Linda McMahon wins the state's U.S. Senate seat

Florida: 54-46 Romney

Iowa: 54-46 Romney -- many don't expect this

Maine: 49-49 Obama -- much closer than expected

Michigan: 51-48 Romney -- the surprise of the night, Romney's home state ties are more key than Obama's claims to have "saved" the domestic auto industry

Nevada: 52-47 Romney -- this will surprise many

Minnesota: 51-47 Romney -- this will surprise many

New Hampshire: 53-46 Romney

New Jersey: 50-49 Obama -- much much closer than expected, the Romney campaign will re-allocate resources to New Jersey if they believe this number

New Mexico: 53-46 Romney -- most don't expect Romney to win New Mexico

Ohio: 54-46 Romney -- Late momentum and great ground game win the Buckeye state for Romney

Oregon: 52-46 Romney -- major surprise

Pennsylvania: 53-47 Romney -- big time upset

Washington: 51-49 Obama -- closer than expected

lolololol

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

So Romney takes Ohio, Penn, Nevada lol

 

[strobogo]

With Meatloaf's and Dave Mustaine's endorsements, I think it's safe to say that Romney has the aging metal has-been demographic locked up.

False. Axl Rose endorsed Obama on Jimmy Kimmel.

 

[reilo]

Romney winning Oregon by 6 points is by far my favorite.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Romney winning Oregon by 6 points is by far my favorite.

hahahahaha

 

[Aaron Strife]

Obama is really putting himself out there with all these interviews. Let's hope there's no huge gaffe. Romney is playing it super-safe while Obama is campaigning like he's behind

ps:

Is the meta-margin the popular vote?

Maine: 49-49 Obama -- much closer than expected

If this actually happened Romney would have to pick up the more conservative 2nd district's electoral vote. No way he wouldn't. His analysis seems pretty amateur, like he just started giving Romney states by throwing darts at them.

 

[Oblivion]

Why are they polling Mexico?

Um...are you not aware of the amount of illegals in the tank for Obama?

 

[Loudninja]

Splits among register voters in Ohio

Obama 51
Romney 44
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/26/topoh2.pdf

This is from CNN.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

Sweet shit, these people don't live in anything resembling reality. Minnesota has not voted for a Republican since NIXON and that will continue, to bring up one of many very, very, very, very false and misguided projections.

 

[Trurl]

Red State put this out as their low-end prediction:

High-end prediction:

Did they confuse MN and WI?

 

[ivysaur12]

Red State put this out as their low-end prediction:

High-end prediction:

I wish my worldview was this skewed.

Or... unskewed?

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

wow @ the passive aggressive attacks on Silver being gay

I did not even know. Interesting (in a completely superficial way).

 

[Kinvara]

The unskewedpolls.com guy's thoughts on nate's site, pretty compelling stuff




http://www.examiner.com/article/the...ilver-for-wisdom-on-the-polls?cid=db_articles

The comments are delicious.

 

[Suite Pee]

Those electoral maps heavily in favor of R/R will probably just make people vote Obama rather than third-party.

Edit: Also, I have little faith in national polling at this point. I'm studying survey methods right now, and most of what I'm learning is how difficult cell phones, caller ID, etc. make it to collect accurate data for a sampling frame.

 

[speculawyer]

The unskewedpolls.com guy's thoughts on nate's site, pretty compelling stuff

http://www.examiner.com/article/the...ilver-for-wisdom-on-the-polls?cid=db_articles

I think that is a great metaphor for the policy prescriptions on the right . . . . don't use facts & science, go with your 'gut' and what you 'feel' is right.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Unskewed released some 2012 projections yesterday

lolololol

He could have at least seemed somewhat legit by just skewing swing states. That poll makes him look utterly insane

I'd love to see him and Silver interviewed on cable news, preferably Fox lol

 

[pigeon]

If I were the unskewed guy I would run a big fundraiser for my website the week before the election.

 

[Black Mamba]

Unskewed released some 2012 projections yesterday

lolololol

I posted this the other day. A good laugh was had.

I said I'd eat all my laker championship hats if this happens and i mean it.

 

[Crisco]

Splits among register voters in Ohio

Obama 51
Romney 44
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/26/topoh2.pdf

This is from CNN.

Still a virtual tie. Romney's got this.

 

[Clevinger]

Also, I love this line:

"He claims to have been highly accurate in predicting the 2008 election results, and perhaps he was."

Eh, maybe he did do this incredible thing in the past that I could easily verify.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

False. Axl Rose endorsed Obama on Jimmy Kimmel.

To be fair, Axl is from the jungle and if Obama gets re-elected we are all probably gonna die.

Romney winning Oregon by 6 points is by far my favorite.

He has projected like 9 upsets, I really want to see this guy's NCAA bracket. All double-digit seeds in the Final Four.

 

[reilo]

He could have at least seemed somewhat legit by just skewing swing states. That poll makes him look utterly insane

I'd love to see him and Silver interviewed on cable news, preferably Fox lol

I'd love for Nate to pull a James Carville and just flash a picture of his predictions on TV.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Splits among register voters in Ohio

Obama 51
Romney 44
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/26/topoh2.pdf

This is from CNN.

Imagine the routing Obama would give Romney if everyone just showed up. Ugh.

There's enthusiasm for Obama but there's still those who are sitting at home thinking Obama didn't fix the problems of the last 28 years in one term so they shouldn't bother voting.

 

[Angry Grimace]

The unskewedpolls.com guy's thoughts on nate's site, pretty compelling stuff




http://www.examiner.com/article/the...ilver-for-wisdom-on-the-polls?cid=db_articles

Sure, except Silver bases his polls on data, whereas Chambers just takes polls and performs mystery voodoo to make them to look better for Romney.

Reminds me a random twitter comment I saw (I think it was Ken Jennings the jeopardy guy) "Weird how presidential polling was a corrupt conspiracy until Romney started polling better"

 

[B-Dubs]

Unskewed released some 2012 projections yesterday

lolololol

I'm actually shocked they didn't give Mitt NY.

 

[Half and half]

I like how he even insults Nate's appearance, when this guy is exactly the ugly, fat, pathetic looking fuck you'd expect him to be.

Quick, someone unskew his BMI. Also, let me know if it's within the margarine of error.

 

[speculawyer]

Triumph!!

Sean Hannity, look at you . . . you are in great shape!

Of course who wouldn't be if they shoveled crap all day long!


LOL!

 

[gutter_trash]

oh my, my brain is skewed

 

[Averon]

These electoral maps are damn insane. These guys truly live in another reality. What will their reactions be once it is completely shattered on the 6th?

 

[Aaron Strife]

Obama's doing interviews for local TV stations in Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida. Jesus, does this man ever sleep?

I wouldn't be surprised if he just conks out for a couple days after giving his victory speech.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

Quick, someone unskew his BMI. Also, let me know if it's within the margarine of error.

52% - Fat
46% - Organs/bones
2% - Undecided

But it is within the margarine of error so (he will be) DEAD (in a few years) HEAT and is known for it's right lean (bad knees, can't stand straight).

 

[Loudninja]

Obama's doing interviews for local TV stations in Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida. Jesus, does this man ever sleep?

Damn haha.

 

[PhoenixDark]

These electoral maps are damn insane. These guys truly live in another reality. What will their reactions be once it is completely shattered on the 6th?

Election fraud. There's no way the skewed guy says "Looks like my model was wrong, especially about Oregon/PA/MI and other solid blue states. I'll have to review my methodology." Nope.

He's aiming at Dick Morris' spot on Fox News. I look forward to his book next year...

 

[teiresias]

Geez, are these projection maps what happens when an entire political party has decided that science, mathematics, and statistics are on the level of wizarding seen in Harry Potter and hence not real?

 

[RDreamer]

Obama's doing interviews for local TV stations in Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida. Jesus, does this man ever sleep?

I wouldn't be surprised if he just conks out for a couple days after giving his victory speech.

Wow. Seems like Obama's going everywhere and getting on every show and interview he possibly can. What the hell is Romney doing?

 

[pigeon]

These electoral maps are damn insane. These guys truly live in another reality. What will their reactions be once it is completely shattered on the 6th?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narcissistic_rage_and_narcissistic_injury

 

[Hobbestetrician]

Geez, are these projection maps what happens when an entire political party has decided that science, mathematics, and statistics are on the level of wizarding seen in Harry Potter and hence not real?

HE'S A WITCH!!! UNSKEW HIM!!!

 

[Clevinger]

Wow. Seems like Obama's going everywhere and getting on every show and interview he possibly can. What the hell is Romney doing?

Convincing the press that he has momentum.

 

[Revolver]

Wow. Seems like Obama's going everywhere and getting on every show and interview he possibly can. What the hell is Romney doing?

Hanging out with his rock star friends.

 

[Cheebo]

Did they confuse MN and WI?

"Romney putting money in ads in MN? That means he is going to win it." I guess.

 

[Marvie_3]

Sweet shit, these people don't live in anything resembling reality. Minnesota has not voted for a Republican since NIXON and that will continue, to bring up one of many very, very, very, very false and misguided projections.

Exactly. Anytime I see any projection with MN listed as a red state I laugh my ass off.

 

[Black Mamba]

Best part about unskewed polls is that he unskews Rasmussen. Apparently, Ras is 4 points too good for Obama.

When you're saying Ras is 4 points too far left, you're an idiot. The guy knows nothing about statistics or polling or anything of the like. His explanation are nonsense.

I feel bad for Silver. He's been attacked by this hack. It's like Smush Parker talking trash on Kobe.

 

[bananas]

Conservatives online are Diabolosing regarding the Ohio polls (and to an extent Va and Co)

Nice to see the shoe on the other foot.

Links? I wanna see these.

 

[Amir0x]

Best part about unskewed polls is that he unskews Rasmussen. Apparently, Ras is 4 points too good for Obama.

When you're saying Ras is 4 points too far left, you're an idiot. The guy knows nothing about statistics or polling or anything of the like. His explanation are nonsense.

I feel bad for Silver. He's been attacked by this hack. It's like Smush Parker talking trash on Kobe.

I don't feel bad for Silver. Because on election day, the smug smile he is going to wear on his face will be infinitely more rewarding than it otherwise would have been when he gets to essentially dance on the desecrated corpses of the endless far right "pundits" and their supposedly "righteous" attacks on the far left polling outfits.

 

[demon]

Silver is on Maher tonight, right?

 

[Cloudy]

Wow. Seems like Obama's going everywhere and getting on every show and interview he possibly can. What the hell is Romney doing?

 

[Cheebo]

Haha who is this pollster Unskewed Polls keeps sourcing?
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/qstarnewspoll_20121025.cfm

 

[eBay Huckster]

Haha who is this pollster Unskewed Polls keeps sourcing?
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/qstarnewspoll_20121025.cfm

literally an internet poll

 

[Aaron Strife]

Wow. Seems like Obama's going everywhere and getting on every show and interview he possibly can. What the hell is Romney doing?

Not interviews!

Election fraud. There's no way the skewed guy says "Looks like my model was wrong, especially about Oregon/PA/MI and other solid blue states. I'll have to review my methodology." Nope.

He's aiming at Dick Morris' spot on Fox News. I look forward to his book next year...

If Romney wins anyway he still gets to use it as proof that he was right the whole time, even if he misses a number of states in the interim.

Say, that seems like a great way of making money. Pull some numbers out of your ass, go online with a "model" and double down on whoever seems like the underdog in the election. If they pull out a win, it justifies your model! If they lose, your party will still point to your model to show that the election was rigged.

I'll do it in 2016.