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[Black Mamba]

I didn't mean the poll itself was disheartening, I meant learning that my own manner of interpreting them has been flawed was disheartening. :lol

I remain confident in my understanding of SD and syllogism's graph makes perfect sense to me so I'm just gonna try and shake it off and move on with my newfound knowledge.

Black Mamba: 3.5% moe on a 4-point lead, but otherwise very helpful, thanks.

I used 3% because I don't have the numbers for halves in a chart. And I don't feel like busting out the calculator.

But it is still in the mid 80% range. Also, without the total share being 100 (it's 96) the margin of error between the two is actually smaller than 7%.

http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/MOEFranklin.pdf

Read this, it will explain all you need to know.

Just know that the full margin of error swinging in Romney's favor here is like 2.5% likely.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Not calling cell users seems nuts to me. The only people I know with a landline phone are my parents, and they have to have one because they own a business connected to the house. Other than that I don't know anyone under like 50 that lives by themselves with a landline.

Out of my immediately family, only one of them has a landline, my mom and stepfather. They are extreme Republicans.

 

[AniHawk]

think people gonna start talking ohio more and more? all these positive ohio polls hitting on the same day should make people take notice.

 

[MetatronM]

Not calling cell users seems nuts to me. The only people I know with a landline phone are my parents, and they have to have one because they own a business connected to the house. Other than that I don't know anyone under like 50 that lives by themselves with a landline.

Those people over 50 with landlines are MUCH more likely to vote than anyone under 50.

Just sayin'.

 

[Clevinger]

think people gonna start talking ohio more and more? all these positive ohio polls hitting on the same day should make people take notice.

tie

 

[Hawkian]

Out of my immediately family, only one of them has a landline, my mom and stepfather. They are extreme Republicans.

My parents have four landlines at home; they work at home and have one each.

There was one we got for Dial-up and never deactivated -_-

The forth is a fax number, it's rarely used.

I have never had my own landline. It's nice to know that as far as Rasmussen is concerned I don't exist as a voter at all.

Those people over 50 with landlines are MUCH more likely to vote than anyone under 50.

Just sayin'.

They're also inexorably more likely to vote Republican. I hope you weren't saying that would skew the results in favor of accuracy.

 

[Cloudy]

Obama is really putting himself out there with all these interviews. Let's hope there's no huge gaffe. Romney is playing it super-safe while Obama is campaigning like he's behind

ps:

As of October 26, 5:01PM EDT:
Obama: 299
Romney: 239
Meta-margin: Obama +2.04%

 

[ezrarh]

Josh Marshall (TPM editor) keeps harping on a very important point: Ohio pollsters who include cell phone users constantly show larger Obama leads. Very important point, especially in relation to Ras polls which do not contact cell users

This is one of the reasons why I'm so confident that Obama will win. (enough to put significant money on Intrade). This combined with polls possibly underweighting the Hispanic vote and the GOTV effort by Obama's campaign puts this on in the bag even if the polls were tied. But it's even better than that, Obama has a solid 2 point lead in Ohio without taking all these factors into consideration.

 

[djplaeskool]

think people gonna start talking ohio more and more? all these positive ohio polls hitting on the same day should make people take notice.

wolfblitzer.jpg

 

[RDreamer]

Those people over 50 with landlines are MUCH more likely to vote than anyone under 50.

Just sayin'.

I realize that, but that's what the likely voter screen is for. You shouldn't be screening through not sampling those people to begin with. That skews data.

 

[Hellsing321]

I used 3% because I don't have the numbers for halves in a chart. And I don't feel like busting out the calculator.

But it is still in the mid 80% range. Also, without the total share being 100 (it's 96) the margin of error between the two is actually smaller than 7%.

http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/MOEFranklin.pdf

Read this, it will explain all you need to know.

Just know that the full margin of error swinging in Romney's favor here is like 2.5% likely.

CNN:

 

[Hawkian]

Romney is playing it super-safe while Obama is campaigning like he's behind

GOOD

I want him FIRED UP. I want to see insurgency Obama from 2008, like I did at the Romnesia rally in VA.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

Obama is really putting himself out there with all these interviews. Let's hope there's no huge gaffe. Romney is playing it super-safe while Obama is campaigning like he's behind

ps:

That is a .6% increase in just 3 hours.

 

[speculawyer]

Ras polls are all robot polls that don't call cells. In fact, I think a lot of pollsters don't call cells.

That's fine. What difference would it make if they called cell phones? . . . Rasmussen is just going to 'unskew' the results as they see fit anyway.

 

[Cloudy]

That is a .6% increase in just 3 hours.

OH probably has a huge weighting on the outcome and there were 4 new polls today

 

[Angry Grimace]

GOOD

I want him FIRED UP. I want to see insurgency Obama from 2008, like I did at the Romnesia rally in VA.

Hopefully he's ready to be on top of Sandy like a fly on shit. There's no margin here to let the GOP politicize this.

That's fine. What difference would it make if they called cell phones? . . . Rasmussen is just going to 'unskew' the results as they see fit anyway.

The type of person that doesn't have a landline tends to be a younger person who also tend to have both lower turnout rates and vote democratic, fwiw, which may be nothing.

 

[HylianTom]

think people gonna start talking ohio more and more? all these positive ohio polls hitting on the same day should make people take notice.

I've made the decision that I'm going to stay quiet around my family members and just let them walk into Election Day thinking that Romney has this.

Every four years, since 1996, I either snail mail or hand-deliver a sealed envelope with my projected electoral map inside, not to be opened until the day after the election. This one's going to be fun. If the split looks like a real possibility next week, I might have to steal 270towin's motto ("this isn't a popularity contest") and put it on the map somewhere.

 

[Black Mamba]

CNN:

Hahaha, this is so perfect. Someone needs to shop Blitzer onto the face.

 

[electricpirate]

Obama is really putting himself out there with all these interviews. Let's hope there's no huge gaffe. Romney is playing it super-safe while Obama is campaigning like he's behind

ps:

Prevent defense never works. Be agressive Obama!

 

[Hobbestetrician]

I've made the decision that I'm going to stay quiet around my family members and just let them walk into Election Day thinking that Romney has this.

Every four years, since 1996, I either snail mail or hand-deliver a sealed envelope with my projected electoral map inside, not to be opened until the day after the election. This one's going to be fun. If the split looks like a real possibility next week, I might have to steal 270towin's motto ("this isn't a popularity contest") and put it on the map somewhere.

Holy shit. Shameless.

 

[AniHawk]

Hahaha, this is so perfect. Someone needs to shop Blitzer onto the face.

maybe instead of him saying "yeah!"

 

[Trurl]

Holy shit. Shameless.

They can say it's tied but nobody will look at that and not realize that one position looks better than the other.

 

[Cloudy]

MTV has better questions than the debates. Shame on the "real" media

 

[Hobbestetrician]

They can say it's tied but nobody will look at that and not realize that one position looks better than the other.

The good news is that it is CNN so the bolded is true.

MTV has better questions than the debates. Shame on the "real" media

I'll bet they actually touched on gay and women's rights.

 

[PhoenixDark]

MTV has better questions than the debates. Shame on the "real" media

Examples?

I'd pay for someone to ask "what does love feel like to you"

 

[syllogism]

The unskewedpolls.com guy's thoughts on nate's site, pretty compelling stuff

While many conservatives look to former Clinton political consultant Dick Morris to understand the polls and political surveys on the elections, or even a site like UnSkewedPolls.com, those on the left look to New York Times blogger Nate Silver.

Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the “Mr. New Castrati” voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.

Apparently, Nate Silver has his own way of “skewing” the polls. He appears to look at the polls available and decide which ones to put more “weighting” on in compiling his own average, as opposed to the Real Clear Politics average, and then uses the average he calculates to determine that percentages a candidate has of winning that state. He labels some polling firms as favoring Republicans, even if they over sample Democrats in their surveys, apparently because he doesn't agree with their results. In the end the polls are gerrymandering into averages that seem to suit his agenda to make the liberal Democrats candidates apparently strong than they are.

He claims to have been highly accurate in predicting the 2008 election results, and perhaps he was. But it's highly unlikely his current methods and projections will have the level of accuracy unless he changes then quite a lot between now and election day. The race has shifted profoundly in favor of Mitt Romney while Nate Sillver is still projecting an Obama win. Unless he changes that, the credibility he earned in 2008 will be greatly diminished after this years election.

http://www.examiner.com/article/the...ilver-for-wisdom-on-the-polls?cid=db_articles

 

[Black Mamba]

Conservatives online are Diabolosing regarding the Ohio polls (and to an extent Va and Co)

Nice to see the shoe on the other foot.

 

[Atlagev]

WHAT THE FUCK!

 

[Loudninja]

PPP New Mexico

Obama 53
Romney 44
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/261922903409455104

 

[airmangataosenai]

Being on the outer edge of the margin of error is equivalent to 95% confidence in the results, correct?

 

[Kinvara]

PPP Mexico

Obama 53
Romney 44
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/261922903409455104

Why are they polling Mexico?

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Conservatives online are Diabolosing regarding the Ohio polls (and to an extent Va and Co)

Nice to see the shoe on the other foot.

Examples?

 

[Trurl]

Is there any chance of the storm on the east coast effecting a change in the election?

The only possibility that I can think of is if it suppresses the turnout in Philadelphia and then throws PA to Romney.

 

[Hawkian]

The unskewedpolls.com guy's thoughts on nate's site, pretty compelling stuff
http://www.examiner.com/article/the...ilver-for-wisdom-on-the-polls?cid=db_articles

I don't know if you were serious about that being compelling or not but that was sort of an offensive piece. What does his stature or voice have to do with his interpretation of polls?

 

[Hobbestetrician]

Why are they polling Mexico?

All those illegals Obama is gonna have shipped in to vote in Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado.

I don't know if you were serious about that being compelling or not but that was sort of an offensive piece. What does his stature or voice have to do with his interpretation of polls?

The guy was just trying really hard to not use the Q-word and I think you can imagine what Unskewer guy thinks about people like that.

 

[XenodudeX]

Oh shit he's leading in Mexico? Free tequila for everyone!

 

[Black Mamba]

PPP Mexico

Obama 53
Romney 44
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/261922903409455104

I don't think Mexico gets to vote in our election, dude.

 

[Loudninja]

You guys no what I meant!

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

You guys no what I meant!

know we don't! =P

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

The unskewedpolls.com guy's thoughts on nate's site, pretty compelling stuff




http://www.examiner.com/article/the...ilver-for-wisdom-on-the-polls?cid=db_articles

Well, entertainning at the very least.

Nate weights polls based on their historical biases, based on their actual results.

I don't imagine unskewed is going to survive this election, although the people behind it will probably be back with a new name and a new "methodology" come 2014.

 

[Clevinger]

The unskewedpolls.com guy's thoughts on nate's site, pretty compelling stuff

http://www.examiner.com/article/the...ilver-for-wisdom-on-the-polls?cid=db_articles

I like how he even insults Nate's appearance, when this guy is exactly the ugly, fat, pathetic looking fuck you'd expect him to be.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

You guys no what I meant!

We could start proclaiming DOOM since the lead is in the single digits if you want us to.

 

[PhoenixDark]

The unskewedpolls.com guy's thoughts on nate's site, pretty compelling stuff




http://www.examiner.com/article/the...ilver-for-wisdom-on-the-polls?cid=db_articles

wow @ the passive aggressive attacks on Silver being gay

 

[Arde5643]

I like how he even insults Nate's appearance, when this guy is exactly the ugly, fat, pathetic looking fuck you'd expect him to be.

Sharp knees, et al.

 

[Nosferatubeast]

PPP New Mexico

Obama 53
Romney 44
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/261922903409455104

Dead heat!

 

[teiresias]

Why are they polling Mexico?

I hear Blitzer requested the poll.

 

[Cloudy]

Examples?

I'd pay for someone to ask "what does love feel like to you"

Climate change for example. Even the same topics from the debate were covered in less abstract ways.

Also, LOL @ your fanfic question

 

[reilo]

wow @ the passive aggressive attacks on Silver being gay

Passive aggressive?

 

[Cheebo]

Red State put this out as their low-end prediction:

High-end prediction:

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Red State put this out as their low-end prediction:

High-end prediction:

Looks about right.