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[jamesinclair]

I don't watch TV, have the pundits switched from poll talk to hurricane talk?

 

[GhaleonEB]

Obama's up to 74.4% on 538

78.6% on the now-cast. Dat trendline.

 

[Darkgran]

78.6% on the now-cast. Dat trendline.

OHIO went to 80%

 

[Cheebo]

78.6% on the now-cast. Dat trendline.

Are you telling me RedState.com's predictions are wrong?

Also know what is sad? The guy who is projecting Romney to win MN is a talking head expert on CNN.

 

[el retorno]

I feel bad for asking this and wish it upon no one, but what happens with someone's early vote or absentee ballot if they pass away before the election?

Obama's grandmother did this. It doesn't count if the state receives the death certificate before the election. But from what I understand they rarely double check this.

 

[pigeon]

Obama's up to 74.4% on 538

Fun to watch Virginia and Colorado slowly turn a little bluer every day.

 

[Link]

Wow. Seems like Obama's going everywhere and getting on every show and interview he possibly can. What the hell is Romney doing?

If you don't do interviews, you don't have to answer any questions.

 

[Mgoblue201]

The 538 model has moved decisively in Obama's favor over the past five days. Iowa crosses 70%. Nevada is nearing 80%. Colorado is now up to 57.3%. If the trend continues, hopefully Florida will become a tossup by election day.

 

[Black Mamba]

Fair and Balanced.

They are still pushing Libya so hard.

The 538 model has moved decisively in Obama's favor over the past five days. Iowa crosses 70%. Nevada is nearing 80%. Colorado is now up to 57.3%. If the trend continues, hopefully Florida will become a tossup by election day.

Ohio over 75% now and the popular vote is over 1.5 for Obama.

Hopefully, it keeps moving towards him.

 

[CaptainSchwann]

538 slowly shifting back to September levels for Obama. Feels good.

 

[pigeon]

Fair and Balanced.

I love that Lena Dunham made their front page. I just want to send her money to make more people angry.

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

I was just wondering if there is a Bradley Effect going on in these polls? That is the only thing that has me worried about this election. That Obama's numbers in the polls are actually inflated 2-5%. Would be devastating if he lost while being up.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

Chuck Todd hypothesizing a 269/269 tie on NBC News.

Shoot me.

 

[Marvie_3]

538 slowly shifting back to September levels for Obama. Feels good.

Would be nice if Florida wasn't as red as it is though.

 

[Hazmat]

I was just wondering if there is a Bradley Effect going on in these polls? That is the only thing that has me worried about this election. That Obama's numbers in the polls are actually inflated 2-5%. Would be devastating if the lost while being up.

This didn't happen anywhere in 2008, why the fuck are you worried about it happening now?

 

[ivysaur12]

@fivethirtyeight

Obama's up 2-3 points in Ohio per all polling aggregates. Historically, that sort of advantage holds up a LOT with 10 days left.

Panic.

 

[Marvie_3]

Panic.

Anybody know a good place to live in Canada?

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Panic.

Ugh that bad news.

 

[Here_Try_This]

A badly shopped vision, of a terrifying future.

 

[Link]

Panic.

 

[Brinbe]

Maaan, y'all just need to avoid cable news altogether at this point. All of it is just an unneeded source of frustration, stress and anxiety. Y'all know about 538/PEC and what Nate and Sam have to say and it's NOT bad news for Obama.

So sit back and just enjoy these last few days, and those incoming GOP tears because barring some completely unforeseen disaster (that you won't be able to control anyway) he's got this.

 

[Loudninja]

pic

Fair and Balanced.

They are still pushing Libya so hard.




Ohio over 75% now and the popular vote is over 1.5 for Obama.

Hopefully, it keeps moving towards him.

Are they stupid?

You dont send in people to a unknown situation.

 

[Clevinger]

A badly shopped vision, of a terrifying future.

incredible

 

[Black Mamba]

A badly shopped vision, of a terrifying future.

Change is to Romney lead in the text (but leave percentages in) Would be even better.

 

[Coldnoodle]

Anybody know a good place to live in Canada?

My basement

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

This didn't happen anywhere in 2008, why the fuck are you worried about it happening now?

But it did happen: http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/12/02/did-racism-cost-obama-votes-in-2008/

Using location-specific Google searches for racial epithets collected on Google Insights, and comparing Obama’s 2008 performance to John Kerry‘s in 2004, the study concludes that racism cost Obama 3 to 5 percentage points in the popular vote:

 

[Chumly]

Chuck Todd hypothesizing a 269/269 tie on NBC News.

Shoot me.

Just saw that. Was the dumbest hypothetical ever.

 

[Amir0x]

Chuck Todd hypothesizing a 269/269 tie on NBC News.

Shoot me.

this is the sort of apocalypse scenario that the journalistic community dreams about day in and day out. Chuck Todd probably even touches himself at the idea.

 

[Cloudy]

I was just wondering if there is a Bradley Effect going on in these polls? That is the only thing that has me worried about this election. That Obama's numbers in the polls are actually inflated 2-5%. Would be devastating if the lost while being up.

It didn't happen last time. Why would it happen now? He is down 20% with whites in most polls

 

[Trurl]

My basement

Those puffy shoulders do no favors for her bosom.

just sayin'

 

[Black Republican]

My basement

PD's side chick?

 

[Godslay]

Anybody know a good place to live in Canada?

It's likely they don't want you.

 

[Cloudy]

But it did happen: http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/12/02/did-racism-cost-obama-votes-in-2008/

Not in polling. The racists wouldn't tell a pollster they were voting for Obama

 

[Black Mamba]

But it did happen: http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/12/02/did-racism-cost-obama-votes-in-2008/

That's not the Bradley effect. The Bradley effect is people choosing to vote against Obama in the voting booth but showing no signs of that until they step in there.

This is just saying less people voted for Obama than normally cuz they are racist.


For the Bradley effect to be true, the polling should have overestimated Obama in 2008. But it did the opposite.

 

[Trurl]

It's likely they don't want you.

I remember a Canadian caller on C-SPAN the night after Kerry lost very cruelly stating that "we don't want Kerry voters here. You might think that you're better than Bush voters, but you're all the same loud, arrogant and rude Americans." Or something to that effect.

Way to kick people when they're down, lady caller from Canada. :,^(

 

[Black Republican]

i wanna hear more "racists for obama" stories similar to the 08 posts i saw here.

 

[Hazmat]

But it did happen: http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/12/02/did-racism-cost-obama-votes-in-2008/

I'll concede that Obama gets less support in some areas because of racial bias, but the Bradley Effect means that people would claim that they would vote for him, only to not do so on election day. In 2008 Obama outperformed polls on election day. It's pretty hard to see a Bradley Effect there.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

So beaten, nevermind.

 

[Link]

Erin Burnett currently ripping Romney's economy plans to shreds.

 

[TacticalFox88]

PD's side chick?

Nah. He's moved on from cartoons to mature things.

 

[Oblivion]

Panic.

Anybody know a good place to live in Canada?

Ugh that bad news.

Okay, either I'm reading that Silver tweet wrong or I've crossed the point where I can officially not distinguish sarcasm from genuine posts.

 

[Fragamemnon]

In defense of crap like 269/269, what else are they going to put on the cable teevee? I mean, they can only say "we have an incredibly boring race that is once again reverting slowly to the mean, where we can only conclude that Mitt Romney is not gaining ground on the Obamination" so much. Of course they are not saying that either but that's just our terrible TV media.

The real media fun doesn't begin until later this weekend or middle of next week, when senior Romney consultants and staff start to see that they aren't going to become white house staffers, and begin in earnest to ensure the blame for the failed campaign goes to the right places.

 

[Link]

Okay, either I'm reading that Silver tweet wrong or I've crossed the point where I can officially not distinguish sarcasm from genuine posts.

Clearly bad news for Obama.

 

[Clevinger]

Erin Burnett currently ripping Romney's economy plans to shreds.

Broken clock. She's a moron.

 

[Cloudy]

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/10/whats-going-on-in-ohio/

2)In Ohio Obama does 7 to 11 points better among white voters and 7 to 12 points better among white men specifically than he does nationally. The three media polls from Ohio showed Romney getting between 49 to 53 percent of the white vote, while the ABC/Washington Post poll showed Romney winning white voters nationally with 60 percent of the vote. The CNN and CBS/Quinnipiac polls show Romney between winning 54 – 59 percent of white men . The ABC/Washington Poll shows Romney carrying white men by a whopping 66 percent.

 

[The Librarian]

Okay, either I'm reading that Silver tweet wrong or I've crossed the point where I can officially not distinguish sarcasm from genuine posts.

You're slipping, Oblivion.

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

Not in polling. The racists wouldn't tell a pollster they were voting for Obama

That's not the Bradley effect. The Bradley effect is people choosing to vote against Obama in the voting booth but showing no signs of that until they step in there.

This is just saying less people voted for Obama than normally cuz they are racist.


For the Bradley effect to be true, the polling should have overestimated Obama in 2008. But it did the opposite.

I'll concede that Obama gets less support in some areas because of racial bias, but the Bradley Effect means that people would claim that they would vote for him, only to not do so on election day. In 2008 Obama outperformed polls on election day. It's pretty hard to see a Bradley Effect there.

I hope you are right. The thing about 2008 was that Obama seemed to be above politics, and it was a unique event in American politics. Now he is seen as a common politician. The rose colored glasses are off. I just hope people being polled are not hiding their anger at him.

 

[Link]

Broken clock. She's a moron.

At least CNN is actually doing some reporting.

 

[Slime]

Erin Burnett currently ripping Romney's economy plans to shreds.

Just anecdotal, but I've seen a couple other news outlets be a bit harsher on him for this these past few days. Now that his momentum has levelled off and he's so blatantly trying to dupe the press into artificially stimulating it, I wonder if the media is going to turn on him going into election day. Would be a beautiful sight to behold.

 

[TacticalFox88]

In defense of crap like 269/269, what else are they going to put on the cable teevee? I mean, they can only say "we have an incredibly boring race that is once again reverting slowly to the mean, where we can only conclude that Mitt Romney is not gaining ground on the Obamination" so much. Of course they are not saying that either but that's just our terrible TV media.

The real media fun doesn't begin until later this weekend or middle of next week, when senior Romney consultants and staff start to see that they aren't going to become white house staffers, and begin in earnest to ensure the blame for the failed campaign goes to the right places.

I'm not sure which will be more entertaining. The tears from the right or when the Right will turn on Mitt Romney.