• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

Status
Not open for further replies.
T

The Librarian

Banned
Black Mamba said:
National polls today:

Galllup LV: R+5, +2 R
Ras: R+3 unchanged
ABC: R+1, +2 Obama change
PPP: Tie, Obama +1 change
IDB: O + 2, unchanged
Reuters: O+1, Obama +2 change
RAND: O+ 6 Obama +2 change

Not updated today:

UPI: O+1
Google: +4


Total update: Tie.
Total: Obama +1 (+.5 really)

Media loves to talk about the "Romney up 2-3" narrative when in fact he's down.


FWIW, Obama is almost +1.5 without Ras and Gallup. Not that I'm saying to throw them out, just putting the number out there.
Click to expand...

WAIT.

Are you telling me that after moving to – what was it? – 49 - 46 R, Obama closed the gap to 49 - 48? So, does that mean Obama's debate bounce faded then came back, or did it go into hiding for a day?
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Dr. Pangloss said:
I was just wondering if there is a Bradley Effect going on in these polls? That is the only thing that has me worried about this election. That Obama's numbers in the polls are actually inflated 2-5%. Would be devastating if he lost while being up.
Click to expand...
Doubtful. Obama's race probably cost him support in 2008. But the Bradley Effect is a more specific proposition. It posits that white voters lie to pollsters because of social desirability. But the evidence is weak. To the extent the Bradley Effect existed, it's diminished to a negligible margin.
 
M

markatisu

Member
Jackson50 said:
Doubtful. Obama's race probably cost him support in 2008. But the Bradley Effect is a more specific proposition. It posits that white voters lie to pollsters because of social desirability. But the evidence is weak. To the extent the Bradley Effect existed, it's diminished to a negligible margin.
Click to expand...

Not to mention white people have no problem openly spouting their hate for Obama, in some areas they would probably even be cheered for that feeling lol

I would be more inclined to believe the reverse, more people will vote for him despite openly saying they won't
 
M

Mifune

Mehmber
Anyone listen to NPR Politics in the morning? They're as bad as CNN, hellbent on pushing this DEAD HEAT storyline so that they don't carry the stink of bias.
 
A

Averon

Member
Amir0x said:
it's going to be so fucking funny election day
Click to expand...

I'm going to visit Redstate, FoxNews, NRO, Freep, Townhall and a whole bunch of other rightwing websites and forums to see the inevitable meltdown.

Their reactions to the healthcare ruling this summer was just great. I expect their reaction to Obama's re-election will be even better.
 
K

Keikaku

Member
Averon said:
I'm going to visit Redstate, FoxNews, NRO, Freep, Townhall and a whole bunch of other rightwing websites and forums to see the inevitable meltdown.

Their reactions to the healthcare ruling this summer was just great. I expect their reaction to Obama's re-election will be even better.
Click to expand...
Why wait? Go visit Pctx's awful thread in the OT for a sneak preview! It's apparently going to be "rebooted with time line, pictures, video and whatever else I can find" so it has that going for it.

Remember, in his opinion:
It's a stretch but I would say that the boys on the ground cared more about the lives of the people in the consulate than Obama did.
Click to expand...
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Averon said:
I'm going to visit Redstate, FoxNews, NRO, Freep, Townhall and a whole bunch of other rightwing websites and forums to see the inevitable meltdown.

Their reactions to the healthcare ruling this summer was just great. I expect their reaction to Obama's re-election will be even better.
Click to expand...

The health care ruling reaction I think will never be topped. Because Democrats were so completely sure they were going to lose and Republicans were so completely sure they were going to win, the near endless stunned reactions made for DAYS of required viewing.

My favorite reaction to the health care debate still goes to Representation Jean Schmidt, who EXPLODED in disgusting rapturous celebration when she thought the Court Sided with them... just shows what a despicable human being she is. And then when she learns her initial reaction was wrong you can hear in the background...so much GOLD:

WATCH HERE
 
J

jbug617

Banned
Averon said:
I'm going to visit Redstate, FoxNews, NRO, Freep, Townhall and a whole bunch of other rightwing websites and forums to see the inevitable meltdown.

Their reactions to the healthcare ruling this summer was just great. I expect their reaction to Obama's re-election will be even better.
Click to expand...

They should be hoping for Obama re-election they are going to make money being anti-Obama.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
markatisu said:
Not to mention white people have no problem openly spouting their hate for Obama, in some areas they would probably even be cheered for that feeling lol

I would be more inclined to believe the reverse, more people will vote for him despite openly saying they won't
Click to expand...
There may have been a "reverse" effect in the 2008 Democratic primaries. Interestingly, it was not only white voters whose support was underestimated. Polls seemed to understate black support, too. Although, to my knowledge, no one has attempted a more systematic study of the effect. So to generalize beyond these few contests would be ill-advised.

However, they found a reverse Bradley effect in 12 primary states. In these states they found actual support for Obama exceeded pre-election polls by totals of 7 percent or more, well beyond the polls' margins of error. These errors ranged up to 18 percent in Georgia. "The Bradley effect has mutated. We are seeing it in several states, but the reverse effect is much stronger," said Greenwald. "We didn't have a chance to look at these effects before on a national level. The prolonged Democratic primary process this year gave us a chance to look for this effect in 32 primaries in which the same two candidates faced each other." Albertson and Greenwald believe the errors in the polls are being driven by social pressures that can operate when voters are contacted by telephone prior to an election. They said that polls from states in the Southeast predicted a large black vote for Obama and a much weaker white vote. They found that, in a few Southeast states, exit polls showed that both whites and blacks gave more votes to Obama than the pre-election polls had predicted. "Blacks understated their support for Obama and, even more surprising, whites did too. There also is some indication that this happened in such Republican states as Montana, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Missouri and Indiana," Greenwald said.

http://phys.org/news142862643.html
Click to expand...
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
RDreamer said:
My wife got her 2nd poll call. No one calls me. I wanna be polled :(
Click to expand...
I live in Florida, and I haven't received one phone call, one piece of mail, one knock on my door, one person stopping me on the street. It's a bit odd. Not that I'm complaining.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Link said:
I live in Florida, and I haven't received one phone call, one piece of mail, one knock on my door, one person stopping me on the street. It's a bit odd. Not that I'm complaining.
Click to expand...

I've got a bunch of mailers. Pretty much all of them were from Romney, though. I got one for Baldwin. Nothing from Obama.
 
M

maximum360

Member
mugbee said:
6Gj44.jpg


A badly shopped vision, of a terrifying future.
Click to expand...

Ok, that made me LOL.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
RDreamer said:
I've got a bunch of mailers. Pretty much all of them were from Romney, though. I got one for Baldwin. Nothing from Obama.
Click to expand...

Direct mail seems completely out of date in terms of effectively reaching people and the kind of undecideds/soft leaners that you're looking to push. The GOP has a longstanding political consultant dynasty built on top of direct mail and it's relatively low manpower (why is likely why the GOP and GOP Prez. candidates use it), but literature seems best distributed the way that OFA does it-alongside door-to-door contact.
 
H

Hop

That girl in the bunny hat
Trurl said:
And the country will have wasted well over 2 billion dollars.

Oh well, it probably had some stimulative effect.
Click to expand...

I pondered that notion way back in February. </political hipster> I think, to an extent, it's a fairly muted effect due to funds going towards large media companies via ad buys, already-wealthy advisers, and generally people who already have a spot of cash. Many of the middle-class type people involved are probably volunteers. There's still an economic effect, certainly, but had that money been taxed out and spent on social services or government jobs it would likely have been greater. And it would've pissed off rich Republicans even more.

Actually it would be downright fucking hilarious if .1% of the latest unemployment drop was due, directly or indirectly, to political spending.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
I've received mail from the Obama campaign, but it has all been in the form of multi-page letters asking for money. I guess they've decided that I'm a reliable source of money and will hit me up any way they can. This is in addition to the 5+ e-mails I typically receive in a day.
 
T

thefro

Member
K

kingkitty

Member
Romney Pure Presidency Prediction Center (RPPPC)​
Here at the RPPPC, we collect various sources that predict a strong Mitt Romney victory over Barack Obama. ​
2nd Round, 1st Round​
Drew Chamber's UNSKEWED Projection from QStarNews:
~Romney wins with 359 EV and 53.63 percent of the popular vote.
~Romney will carry Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.
Source.

UNSKEWED's record: ???

"Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man," via Examiner

Special Mention:
~RedState using a 'Swingometer' determines as a low end prediction that Romney could win with 315 EV and carry states like New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Ohio. A high end prediction is 332 EV and carry other states like Wisconsin, and Nevada.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Wow, he thinks Romney is going to win by 7 points? I just hadn't realized how insane that unskewer guy was until now...
 
M

Mike M

Nick N
Poll trutherism is fucking amazing, I love it. I positively cannot wait to see the rationalization for when their predictions fail to materialize and the votes go largely as polled.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Amir0x said:
at which point Democrats show that it has been uniformly Republican-led voter fraud that has headlined this year, and then Republicans go away humbled when they realize altogether that voting fraud is a BS issue? Right?
Click to expand...

pfffffft, like these people would ever trust anything a Democrat showed them
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
395 396 397 398 399
20K
2M
RDreamer replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher
338 339 340 341 342
17K
2M
UselessNapkin replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
396 397 398 399 400
20K
2M
ShironRedshift replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
393 394 395 396 397
20K
2M
Zaraki_Kenpachi replied
  • Locked
Poligaf 2017 |OT| It Almost Isn't Fair
9
4K
Bonen no Max'd replied
Top Bottom