Bam Bam Baklava
Member
From what I'm seeing on the maps it would have to be one hell of a storm to turn most of those states red somehow. Only Virginia and maybe NH look to be vulnerable.
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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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From what I'm seeing on the maps it would have to be one hell of a storm to turn most of those states red somehow. Only Virginia and maybe NH look to be vulnerable.
ryutaro's mama
Member
I love how in these scenarios, only the Obama supporters will be adversely affected by the storm.
The Romney supporters will somehow be unaffected and soldier on through the harsh conditions to be victorious.
The Romney supporters will somehow be unaffected and soldier on through the harsh conditions to be victorious.
jamesinclair
Banned
But the grey one does the same thing
Obama supporters dominate in northern virginia, not southern. Look where the storm is.
Obama supporters live in the cities along the coast....like Philly, which may get a direct hit.
Remove philly, and romney wins penn.
New York? Take NYC out of the equation and suddenly its a tossup.
Even if Obama holds all the states, it makes romney winning the popular vote more likely.
I don't think it'll have a huge impact on the election, but I think this adds uncertainty to the equation. Who knows who the storm will affect or if it will have any effect at all. If there was no storm, I'd be 100% confident. Now I'm 99% confident. A little less confident, but Obama's still going to win.
It's a hurricane. It's going to come and go fast relatively fast, and once the center passes through it pretty much IS gone "overnight." The back end of the storm never has much activity relative to the leading edge of the storm. It'll be gone from most of the affected areas by some time Wednesday or so.
The power outages will last a while in some of the more remote (and in most cases Republican leaning) areas, though, possibly even beyond election day.
The one thing it might affect is Virginia, where serious outages may give the election effectively to whoever banked the most votes in early voting (which, last I checked, I believe was Romney).
Then again, undecided voters are really dumb
Okay, I'm going to go google for some month old polling trends but I only posted three times in this thread and the other two were predictions. You're airbrushing my post history!
What if the hurricane hit Ohio?
We can't afford to lose VA. Obama would benefit greatly from having it if something crazy were to happen (i.e. upset in WI, SoS drama if it came down to just OH).
This is exactly what I'm talking about. It's a close election by default. Of all things, a fucking hurricane is making it even closer.
I'd rather it not hit at all. Given the aftermath of getting hit by a nasty storm alone, the impact could last well into the week after.
Oh yeah, states with GOP Govs will be crying foul if Republican-leaning counties were distracted by having no power/having to leave/etc. Could cause some problems after election day with recounts and such depending on how bad it is?
This is seriously the most stressful election cycle ever.
do you think it's possible it could sweep as many ohioans as possible to other, redder states, decreasing its ev total and handing the election to romney?
ryutaro's mama
Member
If this storm ends up flipping Philly for Mitt than what can you do?
We can't control weather patterns.
Just have to wait and see what happens.
We can't control weather patterns.
Just have to wait and see what happens.
ryutaro's mama
Member
I know who started it.
See my above post with Republican Destro with his Weather Dominator.
See jamesinclair's above post.
RustyNails
Member
Where are those wolf blitzer pics from? Gaf-->internet-->gaf?
Also, duder who said npr's political analysis is bad as cnn ic completely right. If you slam liberals with accusations, they like to bend over and accept their fates. I'm trying to think what an honest, respectable non-biased news media would look like, which calls out lies and does actual reporting. Gaf kickstarter?
Also, duder who said npr's political analysis is bad as cnn ic completely right. If you slam liberals with accusations, they like to bend over and accept their fates. I'm trying to think what an honest, respectable non-biased news media would look like, which calls out lies and does actual reporting. Gaf kickstarter?
jamesinclair
Banned
But it is.
The hurricane may lead to a snow event in Ohio as it collides with a cold front.
Also folks, if youre voting by mail, do it TOMORROW. Mail might be delayed Monday-Wednesday which means backups could lead to ballots missing the Tuesday deadline.
Gets those ballots on planes ASAP!
This blows.
omfg this is a nightmare. This entire election has been a complete mindfuck since the first debate and it just keeps getting crazier haha
Yep...But the grey one does the same thing
Obama supporters dominate in northern virginia, not southern. Look where the storm is.
Obama supporters live in the cities along the coast....like Philly, which may get a direct hit.
Remove philly, and romney wins penn.
New York? Take NYC out of the equation and suddenly its a tossup.
Even if Obama holds all the states, it makes romney winning the popular vote more likely.
omfg this is a nightmare. This entire election has been a complete mindfuck since the first debate and it just keeps getting crazier haha
ryutaro's mama
Member
I see what you did there.
Storm goes in, voters go out. You can't explain that.
Aaron Strife
Banned
50.9 to 44.5 per rand
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
There isn't enough time to politicize the storm - criticising Obama's handling of the storm when its not even going to make landfall until Tuesday at the earliest means that they'd have to start giving him shit on Thursday or Friday for it to make the news cycles. That would play very poorly.
Edit: Oh, I didn't realize we were starting to panic again envisioning fantasy disaster scenarios where NYC wasn't allowed to vote in the presidential election (apparently because God wants Romney to win and is too lazy to just make people just vote for Romney) Seriously dudes, get a grip.
i honestly thought it could not go up any further.
should start coming back down tomorrow though.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Is it though?
People like Diablos look for reasons to freak the fuck out.
This is reason enough for them to do so.
Not saying this won't be potentially detrimental to VA being in play for Obama but to say that New York will become a tossup or that Pennsylvania is in doubt is well...ok.
I think that Diablos is addicted to the rush of being a worry wart.
The high of "things turning out ok" is a fantastic payoff so he drives to panic meter as high as he can so he can chase a larger high.
Hobbestetrician
Member
You gotta remember these are pre-hurricane numbers.
Haven't seen this posted, but the rage is already building, especially after hearing that Tagg Romney's front company is buying voting machines to be used in this election.
Retired NSA Analyst Proves GOP Is Stealing Elections
Retired NSA Analyst Proves GOP Is Stealing Elections
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
It's Illuminati-level shit to suggest there's some scenario where every Obama voter is unable to vote due to the storm. Even if you go with fantasy nightmare scenario, say Obama loses Virginia because for some magic reason the storm prevents only urban voters from voting but not Romney's rural support base. That doesn't mean anything since most people's electoral maps don't assume VA as a win for Romney anyways.
As much as its fun to make Diablos faint, this sounds like the Democratic equivalent of Obama is a secret gay Kenyan Muslim.
As much as its fun to make Diablos faint, this sounds like the Democratic equivalent of Obama is a secret gay Kenyan Muslim.
jamesinclair
Banned
1) I expect Intrade to reflect hurricane status tomorrow
2) Its almost fucking 4am, why is this thread moving so quickly?
3) WILDCARD BITCHES.
Where is the hurricane hitting?
New Jersey.
What is New jersey famous for producing, which is very important for the entire eastern seaboard?
Refined gasoline.
What happens when you shut down the entire new jersey refinery system, on say, a Tuesday, and it cant get up and running again until say, a week later?
Heres a hint:
If you just said "mother of God" then youre not alone
2) Its almost fucking 4am, why is this thread moving so quickly?
3) WILDCARD BITCHES.
Where is the hurricane hitting?
New Jersey.
What is New jersey famous for producing, which is very important for the entire eastern seaboard?
Refined gasoline.
What happens when you shut down the entire new jersey refinery system, on say, a Tuesday, and it cant get up and running again until say, a week later?
Heres a hint:
If you just said "mother of God" then youre not alone
TacticalFox88
Banned
I don't think Diablos is serious with his panic mode anymore. No one freaks out that much, after repeatedly being shown evidence that his anxiety isn't warranted.
Its really crazy,I have no idea what is wrong with people.
ClassyPenguin
Banned
1) I expect Intrade to reflect hurricane status tomorrow
2) Its almost fucking 4am, why is this thread moving so quickly?
3) WILDCARD BITCHES.
Where is the hurricane hitting?
New Jersey.
What is New jersey famous for producing, which is very important for the entire eastern seaboard?
Refined gasoline.
What happens when you shut down the entire new jersey refinery system, on say, a Tuesday, and it cant get up and running again until say, a week later?
Heres a hint:
If you just said "mother of God" then youre not alone
A few refinery's in the West also shut down for repairs and there was that fire. Biggest factor of the gas spike in Cali.
cartoon_soldier
Member
This storm is just another thing that adds to the uncertainty next week.
In good news, Dems expanded their EV advantage in NV.
Monday we should have EV numbers out of CO.
In good news, Dems expanded their EV advantage in NV.
Monday we should have EV numbers out of CO.
This isn't exactly a recent thing for him.
jamesinclair
Banned
Thats what Im saying, shut down a refinery, and gas prices explode.
When gas prices explode, Obama is blamed for not pulling his magical low price lever.
$10 Obama makes a desperate move and "authorizes release of the national strategic reserve" or "gas tax holiday" if the scenario plays outs
1) I expect Intrade to reflect hurricane status tomorrow
2) Its almost fucking 4am, why is this thread moving so quickly?
3) WILDCARD BITCHES.
Where is the hurricane hitting?
New Jersey.
What is New jersey famous for producing, which is very important for the entire eastern seaboard?
Refined gasoline.
What happens when you shut down the entire new jersey refinery system, on say, a Tuesday, and it cant get up and running again until say, a week later?
Heres a hint:
If you just said "mother of God" then youre not alone
Sigh... I suspect polls are going to be amazing for Obama in the coming days, but then you throw this out there. I don't know if I want to keep money in my account or just buy before the Sunday polls come out. I suspect I'll do 50-50.
Yup yup. Nevada seems gone at this point, as does Ohio. Now, whenever I play with the 270 map, I automatically throw 'em into the blue pile.
There's a very humorous article at Huffington Post asking if Romney's going to shift to Wisconsin (and away from Ohio) as part of a last-ditch effort to win..
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/26/mitt-romney-2012-campaign_n_2026484.html
A gas tax holiday was something put forward four years ago by candidates not named Obama. It was dumb then and it'd be dumb now.
i'm just surprised jay leno was an nsa analyst.
Black Mamba
Member
yeah, i think so too. today knocked out the last bad day for Obama in the 7 day tracker.
Though, it might hold steady. We'll have to see, but I expect it to tighten. Think there was a debate bounce built into this one, but hopefully some with lasting power.
also of note, enthusiasm is peaking for Obama voters in RAND while Mitt guys have regressed to the mean
perhaps this is what may happen across all voters as the election nears. it's been suggested that more democratic voters will come out as likely to vote as time nears the election.
Black Mamba
Member
I don't buy any story that says Mitt is contemplating shifting away from Ohio for this reason alone:
If Mitt shifts away from Ohio he is admitting he lost Ohio and thus lost the election. Enthusiasm would get killed. There is no fucking way Mitt will shift resources from Ohio. If he shifts it from anywhere, it's NM, NH, Nevada, or wherever else. Even NC if need be.
This is my belief. I would love to see a consensus emerge showing Obama up. Gallup is known for these late game swings. Ras too, perhaps.
This time next week we'll see.
edit: 5 trackers have Obama up. 1 tied. 1 down 1 and then Gallup and Ras at 5 and 3 down.
You created you own uncertainty.
Oh, he'd never, ever admit that. Not only would his supporters slit their wrists, but the media would eat him alive for such a big blunder when he's supposedly "tied" in the national race. But I think when it's time to decide where to spend his time during the next 262 hours and the choice comes down to Wisconsin or Ohio, I do wonder..
He's not getting Wisconsin either.
I did play with the map, though, for that scenario. New Hampshire suddenly becomes much more important. Given that Ohio and Nevada are now in Obama's column, and that Iowa is most likely leaning Obama's way, New Hampshire would put him at 271. Tight, but still a win.
But he isn't getting Wisconsin. Each door, each path that he turns to, is closing.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Absolutely. There's literally no incentive to switch away from Ohio even if its a lost cause from a statistical perspective because Romney has practically lost the election if he has lost Ohio. I'm perfectly aware of the fact that there's a "patch to victory" if he hasn't, but it mostly involves turning states hat aren't even considered in competition and/or winning 100% of the other toss-up states, both of which are extremely unlikely.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Well, to be fair, the storm will turn New York into a toss up.
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