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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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I think he'll win pretty handily here. People seem to like him more than Rehberg and the state has done pretty well during his term. The only reason he might lose is because all the ads from Rehberg have been saying Tester sides with Obama 97% of the time, and this isn't the bluest state.
They updated the model, but it still projected a sizable Romney victory. But that should be expected. Their model's predicated on election fundamentals. And economic data changes gradually in the short term. Not that I think the model is sound. It was a novel concept, but there are enough problems, especially a few dubious assumptions, that they should scrap it.
The data I cited refutes the notion of a Bradley Effect. So you're querying the wrong individual.
Welcome. These are crazy times for the thread. Buckle up.
Thoroughly enjoying the constant derision of CNN.
http://georgiatipsheet.com/2012/10/...articipation-in-ga-already-above-2008-levels/
I think the GOP might have erred with the voter suppression stuff. That is just as likely to make blacks vote as support for Obama
I think the GOP might have erred with the voter suppression stuff. That is just as likely to make blacks vote as support for Obama
Black Mamba
Member
Enjoy.
Officerrob
Banned
Enjoy.
Because the other shit on his face didn't attract enough attention
You do realize that it was just 12 years ago the Bush the 2nd lost the popular vote yet won the EC vote, right? I don't want to see it happen either, but if it does, then I'll call it even.
Yeah he'll have to pay more than that to properly remove the tattoo.
Romney's only +10 in Georgia. That's basically a "toss-up" state according to RCP right?
Oh, I'd definitely be happy with Obama pulling out an EC win, but if he loses the popular vote, the chances that republican rancor and obstruction goes away are essentially non existent. The GOP in the Senate will just say "Look. The majority of the country voted against Obama's plan and we now have the mandate to protect the majority opinion" and continue to threaten to filibuster all attempts at meaningful legislation. Back in 2000, Bush didn't have to deal with a Congress that was looking to block every piece of legislation offered up regardless of merit.
I think even if Obama pulls off a 2% PV win, there will still be a lot of hyper partisanship and gridlock to deal with in Congress. In that scenario however, Obama can at least say he won the majority opinion of the country and thus, has the mandate to govern accordingly.
I know it seems farcical to say, but I genuinely believe Fox News is one of the greatest problems to the US as a whole, and poisonous to the populace at large. Some people don't like the idea of news being overseen or audited, but imo it absolutely should be. Like we have Ofcom here in the UK that prevents news channels from spreading fud or hate etc, so too should a body in the US. Because currently Fox News is not much more than a propaganda peice for the extreme right that has fueled hate, racism, misinformation, lies and worse for far too long. Some of the false beliefs you've described that have been etched in to so many people's minds are precisely because of Fox. And that is unacceptable however you look at it.
Seeing as though Fox is by FAR the most popular news channel in the US, this is even scarier. More Americans are getting ignorant and more misinformed watching Fox than any other news channel, and if this isn't stopped I fear it will have further repercussions. The right is essentially brainwashing a huge portion of the population to fit their agenda using misinformation, hate or fear.
Officerrob
Banned
Which would mean jack shit to Republicans. Obama won by a large margin in 2008, and Republicans basically told him to shove his mandate up his ass
eBay Huckster
Member
BigJonsson
Member
lol.....
Did not even consider that being an
article until I hovered over the link
Did not even consider that being an
Onion
Same lol. I wish they hadn't used that clearly shopped photo of Mitt. Reckon it would have fooled a few ignorant peeps lol.
Father_Brain
Banned
Boy, Josh Jordan (@numbersmuncher) and Jay Cost (@jaycosttws) are going to be entertaining on election night. Grasping at straws to explain how Romney can be winning in Ohio despite being behind in almost every poll of the state.
Swing state polls can be wrong, of course, but I don't think they've ever been as consistently wrong as they'd need to be for Romney to win. AFAIK, most of the biggest gaps between swing state polling averages and Election Day outcomes have been in cases where state polling was all over the map (i.e. Florida 2004), which simply isn't the case for NV/OH/IA/WI.
Swing state polls can be wrong, of course, but I don't think they've ever been as consistently wrong as they'd need to be for Romney to win. AFAIK, most of the biggest gaps between swing state polling averages and Election Day outcomes have been in cases where state polling was all over the map (i.e. Florida 2004), which simply isn't the case for NV/OH/IA/WI.
Black Mamba
Member
It's like they don't even bother to research this stuff. Not that it actually has an effect since people don't pay attention but geez.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Ohio is looking about as consistent as it did in 2004. Around +2 for Obama, just like Bush. Add in early voting, which wasn't nearly as prominent in 2004, and we might be looking at a very clear outcome on November 6th
Honestly, I think one of the best arguments for the stimulus's effectiveness is that Romney can't seem to find a single business to visit that didn't get some money from it.
MasterShotgun
brazen editing lynx
Go Georgia! We might really become a swing state soon if this keeps up. I think I can accept a massive carpet bombing of ads if it means my vote matters more.
I tried to convince my mom that we should go early vote, but she just blew it off saying the line won't be so bad on Nov. 6. I hope she's right. I would have voted on my own by now if I had a driver's license. All I've got is a learner's permit, which at least counts for the stupid Photo ID law.
Black Mamba
Member
lol
Don't you think this is because a good section of the population gave up on traditional television for news? it's not like we aren't aware of it, we catch a concentrated version online but that doesn't give ratings. So the TV demographic changed and people that missed the internet train are overrepresented which is conveniently Fox's audience.
But just to play Devil's advocate, I don't think all hosts at Fox are simply GOP fanboys, this happened yesterday:
Geraldo Battles Fox & Friends Hosts: ‘Stop This Politicizing’ Of Libya
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/geraldo-battles-fox-friends-hosts-stop-this-politicizing-of-libya/
It's not the first time either he goes way against their general agenda, he publicly trashed Bill O'Reilly more than once. It would be pretty easy in such an environment to become more conservative over time but he and his bosses clearly don't want that, 1 voice doesn't make a network balanced all of a sudden of course but maybe Fox was serious about caring for the 1% whoever it may be.
lol
I think he is going to enjoy the salty tears the most of us all.
If you're just now picking up on the Republican party's hostile attitude towards minorities, then you're incredibly late to the party. Black Americans might not be entirely enthusiatic about the Democrats much of the time, but Republicans have been telling them "fuck you" since the 1920s. Now they're also telling hispanics and latinos "fuck you" and unsurprisingly that voting group is tilting heavily towards democrats as well.
It's on Obama to not take this situation for granted and sign into law immigration reform that will help remove the stigma of having brown skin instead of amplifying it. THEN we'll see the ultimate form of Nixon's southern strategy.
It's on Obama to not take this situation for granted and sign into law immigration reform that will help remove the stigma of having brown skin instead of amplifying it. THEN we'll see the ultimate form of Nixon's southern strategy.
Holy fuck.I've seen this pop up on facebook several times already
Last year towns around here had to cancel Halloween due to downed power lines and schools were out for a week or two pushing the school year to the end of June/beginning of July. But the election goes on.
This better not ruin the election. Can't anything go right ffs.
What would happen in a state of emergency should it occur during election day, or its effects are felt until then? I.e. the storm is so bad people have to relocate temporarily and cannot vote.
makingmusic476
Member
Precisely.
If Obama wins by outgaming them on the big board and they don't like it, fuck 'em. We'd still be more than "even" for 2000, given that such a win this year would likely be much more clear-cut in the key states that Obama wins. This won't be a case where some shady shit goes down, like in 1876 or 2000.
When we get to steal one via judicial fiat, then we'll be "even."
No matter what his margin of victory, Obama will not be given due respect by the hillbillies on theo other side of the aisle.
...
If anything, the power disruptions from the storm should be longer out in rural (i.e. GOP areas). My main concern is that Obama has FEMA and relief/recovery operations ready and rearin' to go. He can't look aloof or electorally preoccupied during this event. Heck, taking a few pics of him in a command-center-ish locale watching the storm. Make it clear that he's already made the necessary federal disaster declarations needed to make resources available, etc.. these could be a good ideas, just to ward-off potential criticism.
lol
haha pretty much.
look, i know rcp has a republican lean, but i don't ignore it. even though they were off in 2008, they were really on-the-mark in 2004, and they probably just represent the low-end of the spectrum for obama this round.
rcp, tpm, 538, and princeton are all hovering somewhere between 290-303 evs. the only thing that may hamper results might be the weather messing with early voting.
Who cares? Among people likely to vote on election day, Obama loses. If Republicans want to complain about how they can't vote on election day, they should stop restricting early voting.
That storm is a WEEK before election day. Jeez.
And, really, what's going to happen? Is Romney going to win New York because of a hurricane or something?
That main track on that map also takes the center of the storm straight through the reddest parts of Pennsylvania and New York, so if anybody is going to lose votes because of it, it's Romney (votes that don't really have any impact on the results of the race, of course).
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Virginia is the only close state that will be affected.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Silver explained on Maher tonight why he doesn't actually predict that to occur
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Any links to his interview?
The media attention it'll get will sway some votes across the country. And my money is on the obvious that the narrative will be "IS THIS/THIS IS OBAMA'S KATRINA". If so much as someone's mailbox blows over it'll be considered the next Katrina, and the media will blast the airwaves with photos and videos of the mailbox's owner sobbing.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Republicans are towing that line that Mitt winning is a foregone conclusion.
Michael Steele was pushing DAT CONFIDENCE.
Michael Steele was pushing DAT CONFIDENCE.
PhoenixDark
Banned
The only impact the storm will have on the election=republicans politicizing any devastation for gain. I can here the "why is Obama campaigning instead of visiting the towns impacted by this horrible storm?!?!" memes while republicans refuse to authorize extra funds
And keep in mind: Democrats' distance from their homes to their polling places is on average, significantly shorter than Republicans', as the GOP's voter base is more rural and spread-out.
Looking at whose base is more likely to turn-out, much more of the Democratic base can often walk down the block or hop a bus or use the subway/streetcar/etc.. or just drive a mile or two. No biggie! And their power will be among the first to be restored.
Meanwhile (can I get a bit of slow banjo music as backup here?), the Republicans have to hop into their vehicles and drive to their nearest small town/village/hamlet, often on roads that are more narrow and more subject to obstructions such as flooded streams and downed trees.
We actually had a discussion of this exact issue in one of my senior year political methodology classes. Being in Mississippi, voting during a disaster was a great discussion.
I keep reading these points of view, but just like Obama can't fix the economy in four years, a massive storm isn't just going to go away overnight. It might start a week before the election, but how long will it last? Also, won't the massive storm affect people who want to early vote during those days?
As far as where the storm will touch down, I haven't really looked into this particular storm, but big ones do have an effect on states further inland.
jamesinclair
Banned
Look at the white model folks
IT KNOWS ABOUT MY FLORIDA DREAMS
IM SORRY!
IT KNOWS ABOUT MY FLORIDA DREAMS
IM SORRY!
ryutaro's mama
Member
Obama's lead was dropping like a brick before the debate and was probably going to be like the current state of the race.
So it looked like Mourdock-gate had no effect, eh?
Ever think the model could be slightly off?Look at the white model folks
IT KNOWS ABOUT MY FLORIDA DREAMS
IM SORRY!
ryutaro's mama
Member
There you go again...airbrushing history...
Maybe in your world it was.
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