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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Diablos said:
It's definitely not, but, you guys really think the storm isn't that big of a deal? For starters, it's heading right for Chester County here in PA, it seems, which is key to making PA turn blue.
Click to expand...

I practically guarantee PA is blue regardless of where the storm goes. If the storm is bad enough to actually turn the state for Romney, the polls won't be open in the first place. Turn off the panic alarm.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
EV article for an expert

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-mesmerizing_b_2027200.html

NC:
Unlike Iowa for Romney, there is more opportunity for Obama to turn things around. The early voting volume is much higher than 2008, with 210,909 more people voting at the relative same point in time. So, his current lead, although smaller than 2008, may be more meaningful to the election outcome. Also, the state's "one stop" voting, where an unregistered voter can register and vote at an in-person early voting location, offers Obama the opportunity to covert more non-voters -- from a polling perspective -- to already voted.
Click to expand...

CO...looking worse than 2008 for Obama.

As of Friday, 626,097 Coloradoans have voted. The party registration looks good for Romney with 36.1 percent registered Democrats voting to date and 39.0 percent Republicans. In comparison, in 2008, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans 37.7 percent to 35.9 percent, when Obama won the state by 8.9 percentage points. The early vote thus points to a closer election than 2008, which corroborates the polling showing a close race.
Click to expand...
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Diablos said:
Um, no. Voting needs to be rescheduled if it gets that bad.
Click to expand...

Well, to be fair, you make it sound like if the polls are impossible to get to, they'll only let people with helicopters vote :lol
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Hunter S Thompson said:
Might appear worse, but before the actual vote, polls in 2008 showed the state almost as close as this time. It ain't over until it is over. BELIEVE!!! Trust me I watch this state the most.
Click to expand...

I'm trusting you on this one.

Aside from underpolling spanish-speaking-only voters, there's this gem from Robert Shrum that I just found.

Robert Shrum: Why Obama Will Win

Was it all a bluff? As Mitt Romney’s ‘surge’ erodes, the Republican nominee’s campaign faces reality. Across the swing states, the polls show the president holds the advantage.

So it goes across the swing states, even in Florida and except in North Carolina. But there, the Obama campaign has registered a legion of new voters—and everywhere it has the most in-depth, technologically sophisticated, and well-staffed turnout operation in history. That can and will make the difference where the contest is close. The president has twice as many field offices as Romney—800 of them across the battlegrounds. And Romney’s are afterthoughts—late to the game, run by the Republican National Committee, and without the rich, data-based voter targeting of the Obama effort. A GOP operative in Colorado says he adds two to four points to the president’s poll numbers in the state because Obama has a better organization.
Click to expand...
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...lybeast/politics+(The+Daily+Beast+-+Politics)

Oh yeah!
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
ryutaro's mama said:
Democratic shill says he thinks Obama is gonna win.

Shocking!
Click to expand...

I was more focused on the whole Colorado thing.
Otherwise? Shrum's record isn't all that impressive. :/

Also, poll closing times!
PollClosingTimes.jpg

Ohio closes much earlier than I'd thought. Hopefully we'll know results at a decent hour..

And Hawaii's polls seem to close really early!
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Diablos said:
We're looking at 2-3 days worth of impacts at least. Worst storm of its kind since 1991. Very slow moving. Possibly several days without power.

I hope it weakens and doesn't end up being as strong as anticipated.
Click to expand...

Diablos said:
We can't afford to lose VA. Obama would benefit greatly from having it if something crazy were to happen (i.e. upset in WI, SoS drama if it came down to just OH).

This is exactly what I'm talking about. It's a close election by default. Of all things, a fucking hurricane is making it even closer.


I'd rather it not hit at all. Given the aftermath of getting hit by a nasty storm alone, the impact could last well into the week after.

Oh yeah, states with GOP Govs will be crying foul if Republican-leaning counties were distracted by having no power/having to leave/etc. Could cause some problems after election day with recounts and such depending on how bad it is?

This is seriously the most stressful election cycle ever.
Click to expand...

Diablos said:
omfg this is a nightmare. This entire election has been a complete mindfuck since the first debate and it just keeps getting crazier haha
Click to expand...

Diablos said:
It's definitely not, but, you guys really think the storm isn't that big of a deal? For starters, it's heading right for Chester County here in PA, it seems, which is key to making PA turn blue.
Click to expand...
Pumpkin, I really think it would be best for your health if you simply turned off the TV and avoid going to any political websites (including PoliGAF) for the next week.

And that's me putting it nicely.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Dax01 said:
Pumpkin, I really think it would be best for your health if you simply turned off the TV and avoid going to any political websites (including PoliGAF) for the next week.

And that's me putting it nicely.
Click to expand...

Imagine how crazy it would get if I suggested that things wouldn't change appreciably on a day to day basis if Romney were elected president. In fact, the most obvious difference for most people would be lower taxes.
 
L

Lost Fragment

Obsessed with 4chan
Can you imagine how riled up the religious loonies would be if Romney actually flipped a state because of the storm? We'd never hear the end of it.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
HylianTom said:
I was more focused on the whole Colorado thing.
Otherwise? Shrum's record isn't all that impressive. :/

Also, poll closing times!
PollClosingTimes.jpg

Ohio closes much earlier than I'd thought. Hopefully we'll know results at a decent hour..

And Hawaii's polls seem to close really early!
Click to expand...

7:00 est
44 romney - 3 obama (va too close to call)

7:30 est
64 romney - 3 obama (oh + va too close to call) - diablos threat level red

8:00 est
107 romney - 99 obama (oh + fl + va + nh too close to call)

8:30 est
113 romney - 99 obama (oh + fl + va + nh too close to call)

9:00 est
216 romney - 163 obama (oh + co + va + wi too close to call. nh for obama, fl for romney)

10:00 est
225 romney - 179 obama (oh + co + ia + va too close to call. wi for obama)

between 10 and 11 est:
238 romney - 203 obama (co + ia too close to call. va for romney, oh for obama)

11:00 est:
281 obama - 245 romney (co too close to call. ia called for obama)

1:00 am
281 obama - 257 romney (co called for romney but point is moot)

kinda how i see the night playing out. somewhat of a worst-case scenario for obama.

i expect a lot of people freaking out for most of the night as romney looks like he has a commanding lead, especially when nc/fl get called for romney. or even if nh does. expecting more freakouts when wi is labeled too close to call.

i also think ohio and wisconsin will be dangled like a string in front of a cat to keep people glued to their sets, but they'll go ahead and call it before the west coast reports in (i think ohio was called for obama sometime between 10-11 est last time?)
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
AniHawk said:
7:00 est
44 romney - 3 obama (va too close to call)

7:30 est
64 romney - 3 obama (oh + va too close to call) - diablos threat level red

8:00 est
107 romney - 99 obama (oh + fl + va + nh too close to call)

8:30 est
113 romney - 99 obama (oh + fl + va + nh too close to call)

9:00 est
216 romney - 163 obama (oh + co + va + wi too close to call. nh for obama, fl for romney)

10:00 est
225 romney - 179 obama (oh + co + ia + va too close to call. wi for obama)

between 10 and 11 est:
238 romney - 203 obama (co + ia too close to call. va for romney, oh for obama)

11:00 est:
281 obama - 245 romney (co too close to call. ia called for obama)

1:00 am
281 obama - 257 romney (co called for romney but point is moot)

kinda how i see the night playing out. somewhat of a worst-case scenario for obama.

i expect a lot of people freaking out for most of the night as romney looks like he has a commanding lead, especially when nc/fl get called for romney. or even if nh does. expecting more freakouts when wi is labeled too close to call.

i also think ohio and wisconsin will be dangled like a string in front of a cat to keep people glued to their sets, but they'll go ahead and call it before the west coast reports in (i think ohio was called for obama sometime between 10-11 est last time?)
Click to expand...

Haha.. you've lined-up what I just played-out with the map, going hour by hour, trying to guess when each state'll be called.

Per Mark Halperin, the Obama camp is particularly confident in New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada. New Hampshire is the smallest one, most likely to be called relatively quickly. Nice to have an early bellwether. If it goes red.. it's going to be a long, tense night. But I just don't see that happening. If it goes blue, it'll be a sign that the Obama campaign wasn't bullshitting/bluffing when they declared their confidence (despite sometimes tight public polling).

(edit: it really does finally feel close. We'll start to count down with hours instead of days soon, and here we are, already mapping-out the evening. I'm enjoying the comedy and drama that comes with all of it, but I'm just about ready to move on to the next stage.)
 
G

gkryhewy

Member
jamesinclair said:
Obama supporters dominate in northern virginia, not southern. Look where the storm is.

Obama supporters live in the cities along the coast....like Philly, which may get a direct hit.

Remove philly, and romney wins penn.

New York? Take NYC out of the equation and suddenly its a tossup.
Click to expand...

Jesus christ. In what universe will a storm 1 full week prior to election day meaningfully depress turnout on election day? It's a storm, not a nuclear detonation. Philly and New York are not below sea level like New Orleans. The storm comes, it gets messy for a couple of days, and then it goes away and life goes on. This is a new and bizarre level of paranoia.
 
G

GregLombardi

Member
gkryhewy said:
Jesus christ. In what universe will a storm 1 full week prior to election day meaningfully depress turnout on election day? It's a storm, not a nuclear detonation. Philly and New York are not below sea level like New Orleans. The storm comes, it gets messy for a couple of days, and then it goes away and life goes on. This is a new and bizarre level of paranoia.
Click to expand...

Don't be so sure. Philly is one thing, but New York?

This storm looks quite scary for NYC. I've never seen anything like it, and its barometric pressure just dropped to 957, well before it was modeled to do so. A strong hurricane like storm heading into central or northern new jersey could EASILY render NYC subways completely useless for weeks from flooding on Manhattan and elsewhere, and in the worst case scenario could actually significantly flood Manhattan itself.
 
G

gkryhewy

Member
I know MTA has made a lot of flood mitigation investments over the last few years, which should help significantly. In any case, people don't drive or take subways to vote in the big cities -- they walk a couple of blocks. I don't mean to diminish the threat of the storm- it appears likely to result in significant damage. I don't think it's a realistic threat to big-city turnout, however.
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
So I thought I'd get the jump on early voting here in Florida and went first thing this morning, as today was the first day you could vote. Damn line was already around the block! I would have stayed, but I have other things I need to get done today. I'll go again on Monday when I've got nothing else going on.
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Hitokage said:
If you're just now picking up on the Republican party's hostile attitude towards minorities, then you're incredibly late to the party. Black Americans might not be entirely enthusiatic about the Democrats much of the time, but Republicans have been telling them "fuck you" since the 1920s. Now they're also telling hispanics and latinos "fuck you" and unsurprisingly that voting group is tilting heavily towards democrats as well.

It's on Obama to not take this situation for granted and sign into law immigration reform that will help remove the stigma of having brown skin instead of amplifying it. THEN we'll see the ultimate form of Nixon's southern strategy.
Click to expand...

If Obama signs a decent immigration bill into law, Latinos may start voting for Dems (by percentage) just as much as black people are.

There could be an election where Latinos vote for the DEM candidate by 85+ percent across the nation.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Also, AP research on effect of Race in 2012. It will be bigger than 2008, Racial Prejudice is up.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/poli...ma-and-romney-don-t-want-you-to-read-20121027

"Overall, the survey found that by virtue of racial prejudice, Obama could lose 5 percentage points off his share of the popular vote in his Nov. 6 contest against Republican challenger Mitt Romney. However, Obama also stands to benefit from a 3 percentage point gain due to pro-black sentiment, researchers said. Overall, that means an estimated net loss of 2 percentage points due to anti-black attitudes."
Click to expand...

"In all, 51 percent of Americans now express explicit anti-black attitudes, compared with 48 percent in a similar 2008 survey. When measured by an implicit racial attitudes test, the number of Americans with anti-black sentiments jumped to 56 percent, up from 49 percent during the last presidential election. In both tests, the share of Americans expressing pro-black attitudes fell."
Click to expand...
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
Meanwhile, Ann Coulter said on Piers Morgan that she believes there are more child molestors in this country than racists. Yep.
 
I

ido

Member
Thanks to whoever for the heads up about Bill Maher last night. Gotta start it up and hope it's better than last week's show which had like, the Montelongo brothers on it lol.
 
S

Sirpopopop

Member
Sandy definitely has voter turnout depressing potential.

There are areas in the northeast that could be without power 7-10 days. http://news.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474981726350

Assume those are going to be areas with low voter turnout. It may not have much impact on the presidential impact, but it will impact things down the line, especially for House races.

To say that Sandy won't have an influence on the election is silly. There is a good possibility it could have an impact, if it's as strong as expected. Whom it will help, and whom it will hurt is something we won't know until after the storm hits.
 
G

gkryhewy

Member
Sirpopopop said:
Sandy definitely has voter turnout depressing potential.

There are areas in the northeast that could be without power 7-10 days. http://news.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474981726350

Assume those are going to be areas with low voter turnout. It may not have much impact on the presidential impact, but it will impact things down the line, especially for House races.
Click to expand...

Lol, wtf at headline ("Jew Jersey")

Anyway, my suggestion was not that it won't have any impact on turnout, but that its impact on major urban centers (Philly and NYC) is likely to be negligible.
 
W

witness

Member
Black Republican said:
pics?
Click to expand...

Sorry we had already left by the time I saw this. Very steady longish line of people constantly coming in. Probably a 15-20 minute wait. They were being very vigilant making sure no one was even standing around in front of the building. I wouldn't worry about voter suppression at that place at least.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
GregLombardi said:
Don't be so sure. Philly is one thing, but New York?

This storm looks quite scary for NYC. I've never seen anything like it, and its barometric pressure just dropped to 957, well before it was modeled to do so. A strong hurricane like storm heading into central or northern new jersey could EASILY render NYC subways completely useless for weeks from flooding on Manhattan and elsewhere, and in the worst case scenario could actually significantly flood Manhattan itself.
Click to expand...

There are approximately FOURTEEN HUNDRED POLLING PLACES in NYC. No one is more than, like, five blocks from their polling place. I live one block from mine. The city votes about 80% Democratic. We'd all have to drown for it to affect NY's electoral votes. omg. Why am I even typing this.

If Manhattan is literally fucking flooded for weeks then there isn't an election.
 
E

electricpirate

Member
As for the storm NYC will be fine, we might lose subway, but our power system is all buried so it's doubtfull is goes down for long at all. Westchester might have issues. As gwerky pointed out we all walk to the polls.

Ct might look different, they got fucked by the October storms last year, and its going to mess with nh, but I'm not sure of where the nh strongholds are and if a storm is worse for dem or repub turnout.
 
G

gkryhewy

Member
Joe Shlabotnik said:
There are approximately FOURTEEN HUNDRED POLLING PLACES in NYC. No one is more than, like, five blocks from their polling place. I live one block from mine. The city votes about 80% Democratic. We'd all have to drown for it to affect NY's electoral votes. omg. Why am I even typing this.

If Manhattan is literally fucking flooded for weeks then there isn't an election.
Click to expand...

Exactly. And if there are long-term power outages, they're going to be in rural places, not urban ones.
 
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