It's definitely not, but, you guys really think the storm isn't that big of a deal? For starters, it's heading right for Chester County here in PA, it seems, which is key to making PA turn blue.This isn't exactly a recent thing for him.![]()
It's definitely not, but, you guys really think the storm isn't that big of a deal? For starters, it's heading right for Chester County here in PA, it seems, which is key to making PA turn blue.This isn't exactly a recent thing for him.![]()
It's definitely not, but, you guys really think the storm isn't that big of a deal? For starters, it's heading right for Chester County here in PA, it seems, which is key to making PA turn blue.
It's definitely not, but, you guys really think the storm isn't that big of a deal? For starters, it's heading right for Chester County here in PA, it seems, which is key to making PA turn blue.
It's definitely not, but, you guys really think the storm isn't that big of a deal? For starters, it's heading right for Chester County here in PA, it seems, which is key to making PA turn blue.
Well, to be fair, the storm will turn New York into a toss up.
Um, no. Voting needs to be rescheduled if it gets that bad.If you lose like that you gotta just let it go and accept it.
Unlike Iowa for Romney, there is more opportunity for Obama to turn things around. The early voting volume is much higher than 2008, with 210,909 more people voting at the relative same point in time. So, his current lead, although smaller than 2008, may be more meaningful to the election outcome. Also, the state's "one stop" voting, where an unregistered voter can register and vote at an in-person early voting location, offers Obama the opportunity to covert more non-voters -- from a polling perspective -- to already voted.
As of Friday, 626,097 Coloradoans have voted. The party registration looks good for Romney with 36.1 percent registered Democrats voting to date and 39.0 percent Republicans. In comparison, in 2008, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans 37.7 percent to 35.9 percent, when Obama won the state by 8.9 percentage points. The early vote thus points to a closer election than 2008, which corroborates the polling showing a close race.
Um, no. Voting needs to be rescheduled if it gets that bad.
Well, to be fair, you make it sound like if the polls are impossible to get to, they'll only let people with helicopters vote :lol
In a world where only Donald Trump can vote...Well, to be fair, you make it sound like if the polls are impossible to get to, they'll only let people with helicopters vote :lol
EV article for an expert
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-mesmerizing_b_2027200.html
NC:
CO...looking worse than 2008 for Obama.
Might appear worse, but before the actual vote, polls in 2008 showed the state almost as close as this time. It ain't over until it is over. BELIEVE!!! Trust me I watch this state the most.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...lybeast/politics+(The+Daily+Beast+-+Politics)Robert Shrum: Why Obama Will Win
Was it all a bluff? As Mitt Romneys surge erodes, the Republican nominees campaign faces reality. Across the swing states, the polls show the president holds the advantage.
So it goes across the swing states, even in Florida and except in North Carolina. But there, the Obama campaign has registered a legion of new votersand everywhere it has the most in-depth, technologically sophisticated, and well-staffed turnout operation in history. That can and will make the difference where the contest is close. The president has twice as many field offices as Romney800 of them across the battlegrounds. And Romneys are afterthoughtslate to the game, run by the Republican National Committee, and without the rich, data-based voter targeting of the Obama effort. A GOP operative in Colorado says he adds two to four points to the presidents poll numbers in the state because Obama has a better organization.
I'm trusting you on this one.
Aside from underpolling spanish-speaking-only voters, there's this gem from Robert Shrum that I just found.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...lybeast/politics+(The+Daily+Beast+-+Politics)
Oh yeah!
Democratic shill says he thinks Obama is gonna win.
Shocking!
Democratic shill says he thinks Obama is gonna win.
Shocking!
We're looking at 2-3 days worth of impacts at least. Worst storm of its kind since 1991. Very slow moving. Possibly several days without power.
I hope it weakens and doesn't end up being as strong as anticipated.
We can't afford to lose VA. Obama would benefit greatly from having it if something crazy were to happen (i.e. upset in WI, SoS drama if it came down to just OH).
This is exactly what I'm talking about. It's a close election by default. Of all things, a fucking hurricane is making it even closer.
I'd rather it not hit at all. Given the aftermath of getting hit by a nasty storm alone, the impact could last well into the week after.
Oh yeah, states with GOP Govs will be crying foul if Republican-leaning counties were distracted by having no power/having to leave/etc. Could cause some problems after election day with recounts and such depending on how bad it is?
This is seriously the most stressful election cycle ever.
omfg this is a nightmare. This entire election has been a complete mindfuck since the first debate and it just keeps getting crazier haha
Pumpkin, I really think it would be best for your health if you simply turned off the TV and avoid going to any political websites (including PoliGAF) for the next week.It's definitely not, but, you guys really think the storm isn't that big of a deal? For starters, it's heading right for Chester County here in PA, it seems, which is key to making PA turn blue.
Pumpkin, I really think it would be best for your health if you simply turned off the TV and avoid going to any political websites (including PoliGAF) for the next week.
And that's me putting it nicely.
I was more focused on the whole Colorado thing.
Otherwise? Shrum's record isn't all that impressive. :/
Also, poll closing times!
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Ohio closes much earlier than I'd thought. Hopefully we'll know results at a decent hour..
And Hawaii's polls seem to close really early!
7:00 est
44 romney - 3 obama (va too close to call)
7:30 est
64 romney - 3 obama (oh + va too close to call) - diablos threat level red
8:00 est
107 romney - 99 obama (oh + fl + va + nh too close to call)
8:30 est
113 romney - 99 obama (oh + fl + va + nh too close to call)
9:00 est
216 romney - 163 obama (oh + co + va + wi too close to call. nh for obama, fl for romney)
10:00 est
225 romney - 179 obama (oh + co + ia + va too close to call. wi for obama)
between 10 and 11 est:
238 romney - 203 obama (co + ia too close to call. va for romney, oh for obama)
11:00 est:
281 obama - 245 romney (co too close to call. ia called for obama)
1:00 am
281 obama - 257 romney (co called for romney but point is moot)
kinda how i see the night playing out. somewhat of a worst-case scenario for obama.
i expect a lot of people freaking out for most of the night as romney looks like he has a commanding lead, especially when nc/fl get called for romney. or even if nh does. expecting more freakouts when wi is labeled too close to call.
i also think ohio and wisconsin will be dangled like a string in front of a cat to keep people glued to their sets, but they'll go ahead and call it before the west coast reports in (i think ohio was called for obama sometime between 10-11 est last time?)
Can you imagine how riled up the religious loonies would be if Romney actually flipped a state because of the storm? We'd never hear the end of it.
Obama supporters dominate in northern virginia, not southern. Look where the storm is.
Obama supporters live in the cities along the coast....like Philly, which may get a direct hit.
Remove philly, and romney wins penn.
New York? Take NYC out of the equation and suddenly its a tossup.
Jesus christ. In what universe will a storm 1 full week prior to election day meaningfully depress turnout on election day? It's a storm, not a nuclear detonation. Philly and New York are not below sea level like New Orleans. The storm comes, it gets messy for a couple of days, and then it goes away and life goes on. This is a new and bizarre level of paranoia.
If you're just now picking up on the Republican party's hostile attitude towards minorities, then you're incredibly late to the party. Black Americans might not be entirely enthusiatic about the Democrats much of the time, but Republicans have been telling them "fuck you" since the 1920s. Now they're also telling hispanics and latinos "fuck you" and unsurprisingly that voting group is tilting heavily towards democrats as well.
It's on Obama to not take this situation for granted and sign into law immigration reform that will help remove the stigma of having brown skin instead of amplifying it. THEN we'll see the ultimate form of Nixon's southern strategy.
The candidate we have leading in EVERY state today is the same one we had leading when we launched 538 forecast in June.
@fivethirtyeight via web
"Overall, the survey found that by virtue of racial prejudice, Obama could lose 5 percentage points off his share of the popular vote in his Nov. 6 contest against Republican challenger Mitt Romney. However, Obama also stands to benefit from a 3 percentage point gain due to pro-black sentiment, researchers said. Overall, that means an estimated net loss of 2 percentage points due to anti-black attitudes."
"In all, 51 percent of Americans now express explicit anti-black attitudes, compared with 48 percent in a similar 2008 survey. When measured by an implicit racial attitudes test, the number of Americans with anti-black sentiments jumped to 56 percent, up from 49 percent during the last presidential election. In both tests, the share of Americans expressing pro-black attitudes fell."
pics?Voted! Lots of people here voting in central Florida. +2 Obama!
Also, AP research on effect of Race in 2012. It will be bigger than 2008, Racial Prejudice is up.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/poli...ma-and-romney-don-t-want-you-to-read-20121027
I would have taken pictures of the line in South Florida, but I couldn't even find a parking spot.pics?
Is....that because there are millions of child molesters?Meanwhile, Ann Coulter said on Piers Morgan that she believes there are more child molestors in this country than racists. Yep.
Sandy definitely has voter turnout depressing potential.
There are areas in the northeast that could be without power 7-10 days. http://news.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474981726350
Assume those are going to be areas with low voter turnout. It may not have much impact on the presidential impact, but it will impact things down the line, especially for House races.
Lol, wtf at headline ("Jew Jersey")
pics?
Don't be so sure. Philly is one thing, but New York?
This storm looks quite scary for NYC. I've never seen anything like it, and its barometric pressure just dropped to 957, well before it was modeled to do so. A strong hurricane like storm heading into central or northern new jersey could EASILY render NYC subways completely useless for weeks from flooding on Manhattan and elsewhere, and in the worst case scenario could actually significantly flood Manhattan itself.
There are approximately FOURTEEN HUNDRED POLLING PLACES in NYC. No one is more than, like, five blocks from their polling place. I live one block from mine. The city votes about 80% Democratic. We'd all have to drown for it to affect NY's electoral votes. omg. Why am I even typing this.
If Manhattan is literally fucking flooded for weeks then there isn't an election.