Clayton Bigsby
Banned
You realize that is only about $.97 right? That puts its domestic about 100 million more. With higher ticket prices, you also get lower amounts of people in theaters. Your logic seems flawed.
Real Box Office Talk: TDKR v The Hobbit. Worldwide. What say you?
- Thread starter SCULLIBUNDO
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You realize that is only about $.97 right? That puts its domestic about 100 million more. With higher ticket prices, you also get lower amounts of people in theaters. Your logic seems flawed.
echoshifting
Banned
I posed the question to a group of my friends a couple of weeks ago - if you could see only one blockbuster this year, which would you see? I was surprised by how many said The Hobbit. My wife was the only one to pick DKR.
(Avengers, Amazing Spider-Man and Snow White and the Huntsman drew nary a single vote)
(Avengers, Amazing Spider-Man and Snow White and the Huntsman drew nary a single vote)
Clayton Bigsby
Banned
Good thing no one has to choose.
They'll be even more surprised when they find out The Hobbit isn't coming out this summer.
echoshifting
Banned
Tell me about it. The number of movies I desperately want to see on the big screen this year is higher than the past few years all put together.
I pointed this out, but nobody cared.
edit: oh, derp. I meant to write this year. Sorry guys.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Exactly. The average Joes does not know what the Hobbit is whatsoever. It's not even in the same stratosphere as the HP series in terms of recognizability. I think people are really overestimating it.
The Anti-Monitor
Banned
The Hobbit will win no doubt. If someone doesn't know about the book, Peter Jackson will make damn sure he knows it's the prequel of The Lord of the Rings. That's all he needs.
gundamkyoukai
Member
The Hobbit will win WW for certain .
The overseas market is bigger than before and that should help The Hobbit .
The overseas market is bigger than before and that should help The Hobbit .
StealthGoblin
Banned
How do you explain how well Fellowship of the Ring did then as before then even less people would have known what a Hobbit is.
I teach Primary school children and they have watched The Lord of the Rings. I'm a Tolkien nerd, but they are the ones that bring it up in conversation. One day I played 'Concerning Hobbits' while they were doing some work through the speaker system in my class and almost every single one knew which film it was from. Twas surreal.
I think the word 'Hobbit' has more traction than people give it credit for. People know of Gollum, people know the name 'Gandalf' refers to a wizard.
They've either seen LOTR at the cinema or have watched it on DVD over the years.
They'll see a trailer or a poster and know exactly what the heck it means.
Batman: Nerds, bros, some GFs, the curious + repeat nerds.
Hobbit: All that and a bag of FAMILY but fewer Bros.
I also think you could look at DVD and Blu Ray sales of each (LotR and DK) as a measure of consumer awareness and demand. I don't actually know which outsold which. Anyone got that data?
Hobbit: All that and a bag of FAMILY but fewer Bros.
I also think you could look at DVD and Blu Ray sales of each (LotR and DK) as a measure of consumer awareness and demand. I don't actually know which outsold which. Anyone got that data?
You know TDK grossed around 200 million bucks more in America than each LOTR movie, right. Dat bag of family.
TDK broke blu-ray records upon release. Blu-ray sales of LotR aren't really comparable as all three movies are sold together in a premium package, anyway
Diprosalic
Banned
doesn't have to.
hobbit has 3D and overseas audience on it's side. you can't beat that. there's no way TDKR does as good as TDK domestically.
I think that with all things being equal (and neither of these films are the worst thing ever made, unlikely I know but....)
TDKR = $900m ww. ($400/450m in the US alone)
Batman is one of the few franchises that that grosses 50/50 when it comes to the US and International box office. I think that Dark Knight had some zeitgeist going for it that 'Rises' won't be able to match. A hit but it will end behind the original. Just.
The Hobbit = $1.4b ww. ($375m in the US alone)
A huge film and the fact it's being shot in 3D really makes me think it can surpass the last Harry Potter film for third place in the worldwide 'all time' box office rankings with the second part perhaps nudging Harry Potter 7.5 into 5th place. Perhaps.
So The Hobbit Part 1 is the winner for me but Time Warner is the real winner in all this.
TDKR = $900m ww. ($400/450m in the US alone)
Batman is one of the few franchises that that grosses 50/50 when it comes to the US and International box office. I think that Dark Knight had some zeitgeist going for it that 'Rises' won't be able to match. A hit but it will end behind the original. Just.
The Hobbit = $1.4b ww. ($375m in the US alone)
A huge film and the fact it's being shot in 3D really makes me think it can surpass the last Harry Potter film for third place in the worldwide 'all time' box office rankings with the second part perhaps nudging Harry Potter 7.5 into 5th place. Perhaps.
So The Hobbit Part 1 is the winner for me but Time Warner is the real winner in all this.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
I will go on a limb here and say Ice age 4 will outsell the Hobbit WW.
bengraven
Member
This.
Hari Seldon
Member
Hobbit will win WW due to its broader target audience.
I can believe your Hobbit number but there is no way TDKR does less than a billion, just impossible unless the movie is some kind of gigantic disaster.
vicissitudes
Banned
Also Lotr had already been out on DVD for years when the blu-ray came out.
After thinking about this some more, with 3D and emerging WW markets, I don't see how The Hobbit can lose. Batman isn't that strong overseas.
Maybe. TDK did a billion WW but actually made slightly more in the US than in INT. markets. TDKR can certainly do a billion+ but it would have to really do better overseas.
Perhaps it could be a repeat of what happened with Sherlock Holmes 2? It's US gross was lower than the first film but it's INT. gross swelled meaning WW it made more cash than the first film.
I just don't see TDKR topping let alone matching TDK's $525m domestic gross.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
It will do much better over seas because TDKR will be releasing in China. TDK did not release in China.
That's a good point actually. I'm just not sure how Nolan's dark Batman film will play to a Chinese audience.
I know its apples and oranges but Japan notoriously hated TDK and the film bombed there despite BATMAN BEGINS being a hit in the Japanese market.
Apparently they loved Inception so that is something.
Syph Medwes
Member
Don't know who will win, but I will definitely see both in theatres, which is a rarity for me.
Time Warner will ultimately win.
Warner Bros are producing (The Hobbit through it's New Line label) and distributing both films.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
Fixed.
There is limited data available but I think TDK has it beat there too.
shadowsdarknes
Member
I predict the Dark Knight Rises grosses 1.4 - 1.6 billion. GAFs blind hate for TDK biases most predictions here. Saying it's going to gross less than TDK? Rethink your numbers because I guarantee it will be the biggest summer blockbuster.
Nobody in this thread is disputing it being the biggest summer blockbuster bro.
robertsan21
Member
well The hobbit will crush batman, CRUSH IT!
PairOfFilthySocks
Member
And my bat.
Messofanego
Banned
elrechazado
Banned
Hobbit >
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
I knew this would make a good crow thread for the future.
Schweinehund
Member
World wide? I think hobbit.
US? Dark Knight Rises.
US? Dark Knight Rises.
Code:
JAPAN LTD Gross
The Dark Knight $14,574,849
Batman Begins $12,375,128From BO Mojo, Dark Knight made more overall in Japan. I think DK just had a slow start. Neither looked impressive. Maybe Japan hates Batman.
No matter what, Hobbit has Japan locked up assuming that's an important market
EDIT: Oops, beaten long time ago.
I still don't see why people think this will be a huge hit. Outside of Iron Man, none of the characters in the movie are that popular... At best it'll do about the same as the Iron Man movies.
I think there is a good shot it will make more.
Care to explain why?
Factoring in 3D, I agree. I also feel no personal buzz going for Dark Shadows, but any Burton/Depp film could be a huge hit and hurt Avengers' legs.
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