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[kinggroin]

The only thing i'd like to know is if these past few months of turn around for the 360 hardware will:

1) sustain themselves past the holidays
2) increase marketshare or mainly sell to their devoted fan base


This is a real chance for ms to truly relaunch their platform, but sales have to remain strong past these bundles and hardware revisions. I think with news of kinect pre-orders doing as well as ms says, they just might pull it off.

This kind of momentum could be disastrous for nintendo and sony in the console space moving forward.

 

[Jocchan]

False is a rather strong word choice. I'd say 15-20% off to the real numbers is better than nothing

I'd say nothing is better than x% off, where x is a value that can't be quantified and apparently fluctuates quite heavily.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

doesn't NPD do some guestimating themselves? I don't think they get numbers directly from Wal-Mart and a few other outlets if I'm not mistaken. All I know is that NPD is not the omnipotent source for gaming sales data. No source is because of the lack of having information from all retailers. I'm sure on some occasions ioi got closer on the actual numbers than NPD did. We will never know however, because it's near impossible to know exactly how many units of an item were sold accross the country.

The difference is that the NPD are transparent with their methodology and are within statistically acceptable error range. The very fact that ioi changes his numbers after getting NPD numbers shows that even he himself is not confident in his numbers, because if he was, he wouldn't just change them when a rival reports differently.

I know many of you will choose to go there instead of having nothing. If that makes you feel better, go for it. But there isn't a single member of the true sales-age core that are going to trust ioi's numbers as long as he keeps behaving like a salesman more than a statistician.

As much as I wish he were reliable, as much as I wish he were a reasonable, statistically valid replacement for the NPD, as much as I wish I could cheer him on as he socks the assholes at NPD upside the jaw, wishing doesn't make things so or else I'd have a reasonably-sized penis and a bottomless jar of grasshopper cookies.

 

[confuziz]

I'd say nothing is better than x% off, where x is a value that can't be quantified and apparently fluctuates quite heavily.

So you'd rather know a lot of people got killed in an accident, than knowing who got killed and approx how much?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

So you'd rather know a lot of people got killed in an accident, than knowing who got killed and approx how much?

This might be the worst analogy I've ever seen on GAF, and wubby, that is saying something.

 

[Jocchan]

So you'd rather know a lot of people got killed in an acident, than knowing who got killed and approx how much?

Except I wouldn't be "knowing" anything because that information would be entirely unreliable.
So, yeah, I'd rather have no information than information very likely to be incorrect.

Spoiler

By the way, there were 15 victims, 18 of which female. One was named Mark and another had the letter Y in her surname. I gave this information for free, so it's better than nothing!

 

[vicissitudes]

My attempt at lightening up the thread a little:

 

[m3k]

:lol rip npd

its gonna be a hell of a job mining for data now

 

[confuziz]

This might be the worst analogy I've ever seen on GAF, and wubby, that is saying something.

I did my best. :lol

 

[Jocchan]

:lol vicissitudes

 

[V_Arnold]

So you'd rather know a lot of people got killed in an accident, than knowing who got killed and approx how much?

What basically happens is when VG says "23,456 pieces sold that week from game Y", VG instead means: "I do not know how many pieces game Y has sold, but I am guessing 23,456, because it cannot be THAT far from the truth".

So yes, the word you are looking for is "unknown", not "approximately 2000 dead in the last traffic accident".

 

[Saty]

New software releases in September have not met expectations in the US, according to Cowan & Company's Doug Creutz.

Microsoft's Halo: Reach sold 3.3 million units during the month, below Cowan's 3.75 million estimate, while Activision's Guitar Hero: Warriors of Rock, only managed "a fairly dreadful" 86,000 units in its first five days.
He also singled out Nintendo's Metroid: Other M as missing expectations

Released in August, EA's Madden NFL 11 slowed down in its second month on the market, with unit sales down 11 per cent,

There were "few major surprises at the publishers" during September, said Cowan & Company - including PC software, Activision Blizzard sales were down 41 per cent, EA down 42 per cent, Take-Two down 170 per cent and THQ down 25 per cent compared to the same month last year.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2010-10-15-new-game-releases-disappoint-in-the-us

 

[confuziz]

What basically happens is when VG says "23,456 pieces sold that week from game Y", VG instead means: "I do not know how many pieces game Y has sold, but I am guessing 23,456, because it cannot be THAT far from the truth".

So yes, the word you are looking for is "unknown", not "approximately 2000 dead in the last traffic accident".

Just one problem with that logic, they don't guess based on nothing

 

[V_Arnold]

Just one problem with that logic, they don't guess based on nothing

Whao, that is plausible.

 

[elrechazado]

Just one problem with that logic, they don't guess based on nothing

So they guess based on "something". Oh, that's accurate then.
:lol

Well if you want to stay ignorant, be my guest

"not relying on guesses" = ignorance....k

 

[confuziz]

Whao, that is plausible.

Well if you want to stay ignorant, be my guest

 

[CrunchinJelly]

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2010-10-15-new-game-releases-disappoint-in-the-us

Guitar Hero 86k bomba.

Not looking good for music games.

 

[Jocchan]

Just one problem with that logic, they don't guess based on nothing

Yeah, it's all a bit of a guessing game, right?

Well if you want to stay ignorant, be my guest

I don't think you're using the word "ignorant" correctly here. Not trusting glorified guesses doesn't mean being willing to stay ignorant, because said guesses aren't - surprise! - additional pieces of knowledge.

 

[elrechazado]

Guitar Hero 86k bomba.

Not looking good for music games.

For terrible ones at least....

 

[Sadist]

Holy shit @ the Homer.gif :lol :bow: :bow:

So Sony beat Nintendo and they aren't going to post the numbers? Boo-urns Sony. Boo-urns.

 

[confuziz]

So they guess based on "something". Oh, that's accurate then.
:lol

"not relying on guesses" = ignorance....k

No that's not what I'm saying. Some people here just dont (want) to know how the methodology is. I'm not defending them and I'm not a representative either, but at least do some research before claiming something

 

[elrechazado]

I'm not defending them

For someone not defending them you're doing an excellent job defending them.

 

[confuziz]

For someone not defending them you're doing an excellent job defending them.

Giving an objective opinion > defending?

 

[elrechazado]

Giving an objective opinion > defending?

I've yet to see an objective opinion from you though, just a general defense of it with zero specifics, and calling people wrong without any evidence. If you want to make a full fledged defense of something that's been banned for excellent reasons, please do so so we can evaluate the merits of your arguments instead of using innuendo and clever comments with no substance.

 

[Jocchan]

No that's not what I'm saying. Some people here just dont (want) to know how the methodology is.

I know that adjusting heavily their numbers after NPD results hit seems to be integral part of said methodology, and it's enough for me to consider their numbers unreliable.

 

[V_Arnold]

Giving an objective opinion > defending?

Your opinion is not a little bit objective.

 

[confuziz]

I've yet to see an objective opinion from you though, just a general defense of it with zero specifics, and calling people wrong without any evidence. If you want to make a full fledged defense of something that's been banned for excellent reasons, please do so so we can evaluate the merits of your arguments instead of using innuendo and clever comments with no substance.

Wait wait. Usually when people sue someone, they have to give evidence, right?. 'You' claim it's total bullcrap what's happening on that site. How do you know that? Give me the proof.

Don't turn things around.

 

[Jocchan]

Wait wait. Usually when people sue someone, they have to give evidence, right?. 'You' claim it's total bullcrap what's happening on that site. How do you know that? Give me the proof.

Don't turn things around.

You've been posting quite a lot in the last few pages of this thread. Did you miss posts like this one? It's only one of countless examples, you know.

 

[elrechazado]

You've been posting quite a lot in the last few pages of this thread. Did you miss posts like this one? It's only one of countless examples, you know.

Don't turn things around, he's being objective. And not defending them at all.

 

[confuziz]

You've been posting quite a lot in the last few pages of this thread. Did you miss posts like this one? It's only one of countless examples, you know.

That graph is from a year ago. We are living in the present and a lot has changed there.

 

[CaseyTappy]

Wait wait. Usually when people sue someone, they have to give evidence, right?. 'You' claim it's total bullcrap what's happening on that site. How do you know that? Give me the proof.

Don't turn things around.

Proof about their made up bullshit numbers and sudden corrections right after NPD where given here month after month and exactly that earned them their banned status here .

Now if you have new evidence that proves their ways have changed please provide them !

 

[[Nintex]]

No that's not what I'm saying. Some people here just dont (want) to know how the methodology is. I'm not defending them and I'm not a representative either, but at least do some research before claiming something

The numbers are bullshit, for example:

ioi: Metroid Prime 3 sells 600k!
Nintendo financial report: Metroid Prime 3 shipment 500k

ioi has managed to track games that weren't even produced or shipped. :lol

 

[Jocchan]

That graph is from a year ago. We are living in the present and a lot has changed there.

That's your claim, so the burden of proof is yours. How can you say a lot has changed there and not back it up with evidence?

 

[[Nintex]]

Nintendo's numbers are dissapointing I'm surprised they didn't manage to get Mario Sports Mix out this year in both the US and Europe.

 

[confuziz]

That's your claim, so the burden of proof is yours. How can you say a lot has changed there and not back it up with evidence?

I'm not going to do that. It's up to VGC to proof that themselves. What I'm trying to say is basically that we need to be more open, and not say VGC is shit VGC is crap just because they have made mistakes in the past or because you get banned for saying otherwise.

Time will tell.

 

[elrechazado]

I'm not going to do that.

Then why are you posting repeatedly on the topic, calling people out, and then scurrying away when the slightest shred of credibility is requested?

 

[confuziz]

Then why are you posting repeatedly on the topic, calling people out, and then scurrying away when the slightest shred of credibility is requested?

Just pointing something out, nothing more. You're turning a mouse into an elephant

 

[elrechazado]

Just pointing something out, nothing more. You're turning a mouse into an elephant

stop trolling

 

[Jocchan]

I'm not going to do that. It's up to VGC to proof that themselves. What I'm trying to say is basically that we need to be more open, and not say VGC is shit VGC is crap just because they have made mistakes in the past or because you get banned for saying otherwise.

Time will tell.

Then, until they prove they're past their old ways and have changed their methodology (and, if they do, I'll be the first person to be happy myself), we have no reason to believe they did. Also, by not backing up your claims (you did claim they changed, and you did claim they are somewhat reliable by saying their numbers are off by a somewhat small percentage) you're proving yourself about as reliable.

 

[B-Rad Lascelle]

I think holding the other guys to the same standard as NPD when NPD evidently uses a portion of their 120K per subscription to restrict their access to said data via exclusivity arrangements with retailers to be just a "mite" unreasonable.

 

[Jocchan]

I think holding the other guys to the same standard as NPD when NPD evidently uses a portion of their 120K per subscription to restrict their access to said data via exclusivity arrangements with retailers to be just a "mite" unreasonable.

Does this mean that, if I start my own tracking website and can't effectively track sales because of NPD's arrangements, it doesn't matter if my numbers are inaccurate?

 

[Plinko]

I'm still not buying the argument that Nintendo will rise to the top again this Christmas. I think they're on the downward trend and they need to get a new console system out ASAP.

 

[CaseyTappy]

I think holding the other guys to the same standard as NPD when NPD evidently uses a portion of their 120K per subscription to restrict their access to said data via exclusivity arrangements with retailers to be just a "mite" unreasonable.

That would be as unreasonable as taking someone's sale figures without real data access by arrangements with retailers serious !

 

[Mr_Zombie]

It's not holding the other site to the same standard as NPD, it's just that we don't need bullshit guestimations; we already have "post your estimation for XYZ month" threads, so what's the point of using someone else's?
NPD was reliable, that other site is not. That's all there is to it.

 

[Ydahs]

My attempt at lightening up the thread a little:

:lol :lol This is perfect! :lol :lol

 

[AdventureRacing]

I think holding the other guys to the same standard as NPD when NPD evidently uses a portion of their 120K per subscription to restrict their access to said data via exclusivity arrangements with retailers to be just a "mite" unreasonable.

This is fucking stupid. We are talking about the accuracy of their numbers. It doesn't matter if NPD is somehow stopping them from getting accurate data the point it is IT IS UNACCURATE DATA.

The reasons don't matter.

On a side note im very curious what this means:

"We are living in the present and a lot has changed there"

If you have no real interest and you aren't involved in VG chartz in any way, how could you possibly know this?

You have no evidence to back this up so im assuming its not based on actual data.

So my guess is you are either involved with the chartz or you frequent their site. Stop trying to act like you are discussing this objectively when everyone can see your bias.

 

[navanman]

Guitar Hero 86k bomba.

Not looking good for music games.

Yikes!!
Rock Band 3 is either the final farewell to music games or the start of a new chapter.
Sadly I've a feeling its the first.

Dance Central looks to be the game that will keep Harmonix in business.

 

[plagiarize]

You know when I'll start trusting 'teh CHARTZES'?

when publishers and console manufacturers do and not a day before.

isn't it weird that professional companies aren't taking up the figures of the free alternative?

oh wait, no. that's not weird at all if the free figures are terrible.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I think holding the other guys to the same standard as NPD when NPD evidently uses a portion of their 120K per subscription to restrict their access to said data via exclusivity arrangements with retailers to be just a "mite" unreasonable.

I'm not interested in fairness. I'm interested in accurate numbers. One of these two provides numbers that follow the rules of statistical validity and have an acceptable error margin. The other plays fast and loose with their rules, has a history of being ridiculously far off from the truth, and most egregiously, changes their numbers arbitrarily after they find out their competitor's numbers. I know he's not basing it on nothing, but clearly whatever sample size or sample type he's using is inadequate as far as representing the truth, and if he's going so far as changing his numbers when NPD reports, he obviously thinks so, too. Estimations without a proper sample are little better than guesses.

If I was content with taking someone's guesses as fact, we've got people on GAF who generally predict with greater accuracy than ioi does. I'm not interested in that. I'd like data, not statistically invalid guesses masquerading as data.

 

[Pureauthor]

You know when I'll start trusting 'teh CHARTZES'?

when publishers and console manufacturers do and not a day before.

isn't it weird that professional companies aren't taking up the figures of the free alternative?

oh wait, no. that's not weird at all if the free figures are terrible.

Well, SE used those figures once or twice, so we're halfway there!