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[AniHawk]

I'm still not buying the argument that Nintendo will rise to the top again this Christmas. I think they're on the downward trend and they need to get a new console system out ASAP.

I think the Wii is going to be on life support in 2011 too. Zelda isn't a system seller, despite its status as a well-known franchise. Dragon Quest X, if it's still hitting, would only help in Japan, and maybe only for a few months at best. Then there's the off chance that Wii Relax hits and revives sales, but I think the system's pretty much done for.

The positioning of the 3DS is kinda weird too. It's expensive, it's got a lot of features, and Nintendo's making more console style games for it (although two are actually games from the 90s). I wonder if they're planning on a situation where the world doesn't care as much about consoles.

That said, I still think the Wii will sell quite a lot in the last two months. Probably not 5 million like last year, but at least 3 million.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

I'm still not buying the argument that Nintendo will rise to the top again this Christmas. I think they're on the downward trend and they need to get a new console system out ASAP.

They may not take the top position this Christmas, but I wouldn't bet against them - they're historically strong during the holidays and I could see them having one last great holiday season, even up against a resurgent 360/Kinect.

However, I do think that they are coming to the end of the cycle with Wii. It's still putting up decent hardware figures, but software is collapsing ouside of Nintendo's own releases and things aren't going to get better next year.

One last hurrah this Christmas, and a slow-ish next year before a late 2011/early 2012 release for their next home console, I think.

 

[milanbaros]

I think Nintendo could give a massive boost with a $50 pricedrop. Whether they want to is another matter. I have no doubt that would produce a massive boost. Enough to power 2011 holidays if there is no new console.

 

[AniHawk]

2012, or I guess, 2013 is going to be brutal. I don't think anyone is going to still be waiting around for the new generation two years from now. Nintendo will need it. They pushed their tech from 2000 as far as people would accept it, and the competition (well, Sony) will have come out with many games that surpass their own as far as motion controls go. Microsoft and Sony will probably be reluctant to do it, but each will try once more to solidify their positions as the "everything in your living room" guys. Despite losing a ton of cash, Sony will be coming off their best year ever (if all their main franchises hit Nov 10-Nov 11). That momentum might be enough to make the PlayStation brand start strong next time, assuming their next handheld is successful as well or at least doesn't tear their focus away.

I think Microsoft's position is kind of a wildcard. If Kinect winds up being a huge success, then they have the casual market, Sony will have the hardcore market, and Nintendo will have the Nintendo market. If Kinect bombs... I'm not sure what their 2011 looks like aside from Gears 3 and Forza. They could lose momentum, like Nintendo likely will (at least on the console side).

Or Microsoft will release a new console next year, beat everyone to the punch like they did last time. The 360 will be six years old next year after all, and any longer will be the longest between any major system and its successor aside from the Game Boy.

 

[manueldelalas]

I just want the chrarzzztz to take off, so they troll NPD, and I will laugh when the NPD whines about this.

No free data for me = fuck you NPD

 

[Opus Angelorum]

I firmly believe that Kinect, rather than being something that extends the life of the Xbox 360 is actually just a means to consolidate sales until the next console is released in 2012.

Its success (or failure) won't affect the current console, but may shape the next.

 

[elrechazado]

I firmly believe that Kinect, rather than being something that extends the life of the Xbox 360 is actually just a means to consolidate sales until the next console is released in 2012.

Its success (or failure) won't affect the current console, but may shape the next.

What do you mean by this?

 

[AniHawk]

I just want the chrarzzztz to take off, so they troll NPD, and I will laugh when the NPD whines about this.

No free data for me = fuck you NPD

And in their desperation they turned to a man they didn't fully understand.

 

[elrechazado]

And in their desperation they turned to a man they didn't fully understand.

:lol :lol

 

[Opus Angelorum]

What do you mean by this?

Well if the next console is released in 2012/13 then Microsoft will want to focus on that.

Kinect will (possibly) help Microsoft to a great holiday season and that momentum should carry them through into next year.

Beyond that however, I don't think there will be any major AAA game announcements outside of ES 2011 which would be the biggest indicator that a new platform is around the corner.

 

[TunaLover]

2012, or I guess, 2013 is going to be brutal. I don't think anyone is going to still be waiting around for the new generation two years from now. Nintendo will need it. They pushed their tech from 2000 as far as people would accept it, and the competition (well, Sony) will have come out with many games that surpass their own as far as motion controls go. Microsoft and Sony will probably be reluctant to do it, but each will try once more to solidify their positions as the "everything in your living room" guys. Despite losing a ton of cash, Sony will be coming off their best year ever (if all their main franchises hit Nov 10-Nov 11). That momentum might be enough to make the PlayStation brand start strong next time, assuming their next handheld is successful as well or at least doesn't tear their focus away.

I think Microsoft's position is kind of a wildcard. If Kinect winds up being a huge success, then they have the casual market, Sony will have the hardcore market, and Nintendo will have the Nintendo market. If Kinect bombs... I'm not sure what their 2011 looks like aside from Gears 3 and Forza. They could lose momentum, like Nintendo likely will (at least on the console side).

Or Microsoft will release a new console next year, beat everyone to the punch like they did last time. The 360 will be six years old next year after all, and any longer will be the longest between any major system and its successor aside from the Game Boy.

If Nintendo is wise enough they will pull a Twilight Princess with Dragon Quest X in SuperWii, they need it. I also think that 2011 will be terrible for Wii (sales wise) I'm counting on Last Story, Xenoblade to make the drougth more passable, obviously NOA will screw everything.

 

[Stumpokapow]

If Nintendo is wise enough they will pull a Twilight Princess with Dragon Quest X in SuperWii, they need it.

Nintendo doesn't pick the platforms for Dragon Quest, and if Square Enix was going to make it multiplatform (which they won't), why wouldn't they make it multiplatform on any of the many established platforms rather than an unknown quantity launch game for a platform that may or may not take off?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

If Nintendo is wise enough they will pull a Twilight Princess with Dragon Quest X in SuperWii, they need it. I also think that 2011 will be terrible for Wii (sales wise) I'm counting on Last Story, Xenoblade to make the drougth more passable, obviously NOA will screw everything.

I'd be pretty shocked if Nintendo could convince Horii to even add in "extra features" for the Wii version when played on a theoretically-BC Wii2, let alone convincing Horii to release the game on two consoles, with the one releasing first being on a new console.

 

[TunaLover]

Nintendo doesn't pick the platforms for Dragon Quest, and if Square Enix was going to make it multiplatform (which they won't), why wouldn't they make it multiplatform on any of the many established platforms rather than an unknown quantity launch game for a platform that may or may not take off?

I believe that Iwata could pull some strings on (wouldn't say SE) Horii himself!

 

[elrechazado]

Well if the next console is released in 2012/13 then Microsoft will want to focus on that.

Kinect will (possibly) help Microsoft to a great holiday season and that momentum should carry them through into next year.

Beyond that however, I don't think there will be any major AAA game announcements outside of ES 2011 which would be the biggest indicator that a new platform is around the corner.

What the heck does "consolidate sales" mean in that context then?

 

[LosDaddie]

Very happy to see the best FPS this gen (Halo REACH) get a ton of sales! Bungie deserves every bit of the success.


Also, are people really saying GAF should start using VGC?? :lol :lol No. GAF doesn't need to become like the shithole known as Gamespot's System Wars board.

 

[TunaLover]

The positioning of the 3DS is kinda weird too. It's expensive, it's got a lot of features, and Nintendo's making more console style games for it (although two are actually games from the 90s). I wonder if they're planning on a situation where the world doesn't care as much about consoles.

They are covering all their bases, seeing the actual state of Japan respect software/hardware it's easily to know that home consoles have its days numbered. But they still go for another round of home console because it means another channel of revenue, it couldn't be a surprise if Nintendo switch the budget that historically was destined to home console to handhelds either.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

What the heck does "consolidate sales" mean in that context then?

Make firm or secure; strengthen; "consolidate one's gains";

Kinect being the catalyst.

 

[elrechazado]

Kinect being the catalyst.

So they want to strengthen their sales, but only for a year before they abandon them ? Makes no sense.

 

[CaptainABAB]

So can we all agree that Halo:Reach did provide a pop in terms of 360 sales? In terms of the tired argument that "anyone who wanted to play Halo already had a 360"

 

[orion434]

This is terrible, one of the main reasons I joined Neogaf I always enjoyed work more the day after the NPD... now not so much.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I believe that Iwata could pull some strings on (wouldn't say SE) Horii himself!

What strings could he pull that any other platform holder wouldn't be able or willing to pull?

 

[Jex]

I could never believe that I'd be so saddened by the lack of sales figures. What a cruel world.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I believe that Iwata could pull some strings on (wouldn't say SE) Horii himself!

I'm pretty sure the only string you can pull with Horii is having the highest-selling active game hardware. Depending on how far off DQX is, the only thing threatening it staying on Wii and Wii alone is the adjective "active".

 

[TunaLover]

What strings could he pull that any other platform holder wouldn't be able or willing to pull?

It's different, because SuperWii will be backward compatible with Wii (almost a lock), considering that DQX still comes to Wii, it could just take the Wii logo off and replace it for SuperWii add some extras and stuff.

 

[BishopLamont]

It's different, because SuperWii will be backward compatible with Wii (almost a lock), considering that DQX still comes to Wii, it could just take the Wii logo off and replace it for SuperWii add some extras and stuff.

PowerWii.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

PowerWii.

Presenting the Nintendo WiiLoaded.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

I'm pretty sure the only string you can pull with Horii is having the highest-selling active game hardware. Depending on how far off DQX is, the only thing threatening it staying on Wii and Wii alone is the adjective "active".

Pretty much.

If it's pegged for a 2011 release - possible, I suppose, since the announcement came back at the end of 2008 - then I'd expect it to remain on Wii. If it is still in development hell and not due out until 2012 or later then the picture may change.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Presenting the Nintendo WiiLoaded.

Actually, IIRC "PowerWii" was trademarked by Nintendo a wee while ago.

As for backwards compatibility being a lock - really? The only home console of Nintendo's that was BC was Wii, and that was only because they decided to basically turbocharge the GameCube for a second gen.

I'm expecting a clean break this time, just as with NES/SNES, SNES/N64 and N64/GameCube, even if some things - controller, WiiWare, VC etc. - carry over in some form.

 

[unomas]

So unless Sony beats Microsoft each month we won't be getting PS3 hardware numbers huh? Microsoft is on a roll, and the 360 is doing very well with Kinect right around the corner. Wii.....lack of software is killing the system, motion controls are now available elsewhere and without the software the novelty of motion control is no longer able to carry it to #1. Looks like Microsoft takes this holiday season with Kinect leading the way. I would be curious how PS move did though, I wonder if people were willing to put down the cash for it, seems like that wasn't the case.

Having a Wii clone when the Wii is on a downward trend is just bad luck, MS better hope Kinect delivers a new experience, or no perceived experience otherwise it could have a short lifespan. Should be an interesting couple of months.

 

[SPEA]

Any Dead Rising 2 numbers yet?

 

[TunaLover]

Actually, IIRC "PowerWii" was trademarked by Nintendo a wee while ago.

As for backwards compatibility being a lock - really? The only home console of Nintendo's that was BC was Wii, and that was only because they decided to basically turbocharge the GameCube for a second gen.

I'm expecting a clean break this time, just as with NES/SNES, SNES/N64 and N64/GameCube, even if some things - controller, WiiWare, VC etc. - carry over in some form.

That was because the catridge format makes bc cumbersome, I think they will go with SuperWii being bc with Wii, just like 3DS-DS

 

[allan-bh]

No PS3 numbers. Disappointing

 

[duckroll]

Any Dead Rising 2 numbers yet?

Hopefully Capcom releases something...

 

[allan-bh]

Same time period?, wasnt MW2 release a week earlier in the month?

Both had 19 days of sales.

NPD november 2009 was 4 weeks, NPD september 2010 was 5 weeks.

 

[Haunted]

Any Dead Rising 2 numbers yet?

Less than 3.3 million.

Thanks, NPD!

 

[Nirolak]

No PS3 numbers. Disappointing

Pachter to the rescue!

PS3: 312,000

 

[Jonsoncao]

Pachter to the rescue!

PS3: 312,000

<3 Pachter

 

[Guevara]

Xbox 360: 483,989 Units (up 37% Year Over Year)
DS: 403,000 Units
Wii: 254,000 Units (Down 45% Year Over Year)
PS3: 312,000 (Down 37% Year Over Year)

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Can't see the full article, but he didn't just disclose that himself did he? I thought the new rules meant that platform holders could release the info themselves but others couldn't?

 

[Pureauthor]

Realize that this is how it's going to be from now.

Hanging on to random scraps of info.

UGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHhhh.

 

[ElFly]

Pachter fighting the good fight! Nice.

 

[Nirolak]

Can't see the full article, but he didn't just disclose that himself did he? I thought the new rules meant that platform holders could release the info themselves but others couldn't?

Here's what Wedbush said.

In a note to investors, analyst firm Wedbush Morgan revealed that sales of Nintendo's Wii were down 45 per cent year-on-year with 254,000 units sold, while Sony shifted 312,000 PlayStation 3 units, down 37 per cent.

It also added that Xbox 360 software sales were up 33 per cent to $85 million off the back of Halo: Reach, while Wii software sales fell 38 per cent to $55 million and PlayStation 3 sales dropped 14 per cent to $17 million. DS games sales were down 37 per cent to $31 million and PSP sales down 2 per cent.

 

[Road]

"It also added that Xbox 360 software sales were up 33 per cent to $85 million off the back of Halo: Reach, while Wii software sales fell 38 per cent to $55 million and PlayStation 3 sales dropped 14 per cent to $17 million. DS games sales were down 37 per cent to $31 million and PSP sales down 2 per cent."

Something's wrong here. Perhaps 360 sales were up $85 million (the same for others)?

 

[TunaLover]

Wii: 254,000 Units (Down 45% Year Over Year)
PS3: 312,000 (Down 37% Year Over Year)

Somehow Wii numbers don't look SO bad now.

 

[ccbfan]

PS3 is better than Wii, oh

LOL he gave the numbers last night.

"PS3 is better than Wii" (5 words) oh(0)

Basically meaning PS3 is better than Wii by 50

Spoiler

Maybe I'm seeing too much into this

 

[Nirolak]

Somehow Wii numbers don't look SO bad now.

To be fair to Sony, this was when they launched the slim and had a price cut last year, so it was always going to be a very hard comparison.

But yeah, it's quite a drop.

 

[user_nat]

312k is a pretty good month for the ps3 really. Not much happening with software.

 

[Corto]

MIcrosoft is holding the industry in the USA! Otherwise horrible numbers in hardware and software. It seems that Sony will really need the GT5 sales bump to meet their forecast to 2010.

 

[gcubed]

MIcrosoft is holding the industry in the USA! Otherwise horrible numbers in hardware and software. It seems that Sony will really need the GT5 sales bump to meet their forecast to 2010.

according to the interview with bloomberg from yesterday they are on pace to beat their estimate.