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[Tarazet]

I don't get it. Looks to me like you'd get the same results.

A 5% loss followed by a 5% gain > a 10% loss followed by a 10% gain. That's what I was trying to show.

 

[Ovid]

Yes, but avoid the leveraged ones. There's a mathematical reason why they perform worse long-term than ETF's that are leveraged 1:1..

Say you buy $1000 of an ETF that mirrors the performance of the DOW, let's call it DOW1. You also buy an equal amount of an ETF that doubles the daily gain and loss of the DOW, let's call it DOW2.

The DJIA loses 5% over the course of the next week. Then it rebounds by 5% the next week.

DOW1 falls to $950, then recovers to $997.50.
DOW2 falls to $900, then recovers to $990.00.

You see that? The leveraged ETF can provide much greater short-term gains, but every time it goes up and down your money is slowly bleeding away.

You have to play the percentages with leverage ETF's, not the stock price. You cannot hold leveraged ETF's long term. You will get burned. They are a day trade at best.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Ubi up 16% today.

I'm still accumulating money so I've bought nothing in a while. ATVI fell 1$ since I added some at 9.72.

 

[Cloudy]

Is there some reason why my Sharebuilder ETF value (no fees) after 1 day would be different from what I have in my Morningstar portfolio tracker? (They were identical at the close of business)

I set up Morningstar cos the basic Sharebuilder account doesn't track gains/losses IIRC and I'll be switching to that next month. Do I need to look out for shenannigans too? :lol

 

[Ether_Snake]

Probably delayed?

 

[Cloudy]

They're both identical now. Maybe I'm ignorant but the S&P was up today so why am I down 80 cents in an ETF that tracks it? :lol

Oh well, free $50 from Sharebuilder

 

[Anthropic]

Did the ETF distribute a dividend today?

 

[Cloudy]

Did the ETF distribute a dividend today?

Not sure. It's this one though:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=spy

I bought it at 86.72

 

[Cloudy]

Ok, it reverted to the close price. This is my first non-index fund purchase and I'm just being paranoid :lol

 

[RumblingRosco]

AHR... oh my! What interesting times indeed.

 

[Pimpwerx]

I'm still new, so I prefer to stick to things I know. I currently have 1000 shares in Zale that seems like a mistake now, but will hopefully pay off years from now since diamonds are forever and stuff.

Since jewelry isn't my area of expertise, technology is. I'm looking at a few companies and want some advice:

AMD - Is creeping lower and lower to the $2 mark. I will snap up a few thousand shares at that price IF I could get some support here. The way I see it is that even if they gets creamed by Intel in the rest of their markets, they own enough assets that they could still sell off. Is there really any way to lose money on AMD if I can get in at $2? I know their tied to ATI, and I'm hoping the new cycle of console hardware announcements (MS in the coming 18 months could also be a boon). I don't expect it to jump to $8, but I'd like to see a nice return in a month. I am very worried about their sales report coming in a few weeks though. It can't possible be good for them. Thoughts.

Ford - The most solvent of the Big3, I think, but with plant closings, is there a real threat of the price dropping permanently down under $2? I have some at $2.66, which I still think is a good price, but I'm tempted to jump on when the price drops down to like $2 midday or so (fingers crossed). Averaging down on shakey stock like this seems sill, but then it almost seems like it's bound to come back. Worst comes to worst, the government will give them a loan and the stock will bound 15-20%. If I average down, they'll multiply my returns. Any thoughts?

In the meantime, I'm just watching some of these stocks tick tantilizingly low. PEACE.

 

[Pimpwerx]

Here's another question. Someone recommended Proshares Ultrashort Financials (SKF), which seemed like a bonanza at the time. I waited and go in at about $111, when it then continued down to like $98. I then wimped out and sold when it hit $113. Watching it, am I to assume that the "short" in the name means it relies on shorting of financial stocks to make money? In other words, is SKF an inverse of the financial sector? When banks are down, SKF is up, and when banks are up, SKF is down? I'm wondering b/c I'm thinking a lot of banks are releasing earnings the end of January, and I can't see anything but more hokey math coming down the pike. SKF is on its way back down. Should I think about buying into it when it hits the 90's or even 80's in anticipation of the end of January bump?

Tomorrow starts the new year, and thus ends my gambling period in the market. Every new dime and every new trade I make must be an educated or surefire one. I'm trying to learn more about analyzing the actual number stoo. I want to make a lot of money this year, and I'm very receptive to suggestions and advice. PEACE.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Yes Ultrashort is a shorting index, and the Ultra means x 2. So if financials are down 5%, the ETF (name for indexes that follow sectors) will be 10% up.

Why the heck is ADSK up 4% today. I'll never get in at a low price! Missed my chance at 12 because I had no cash I always end up with no funds when it's really time to buy! So now that I have money I know it means: Don't buy now!

 

[RSTEIN]

Well, I'm basically out. Sold my Campbell Soup and Agilent calls. Still hold Darden (DRI) puts, my only position. It's been a great December.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I'm still down like 50%, cause you know, I haven't done shit since things have gone really downhill.

That means all the money I was hoping to have to put a cashdown payment on a house in two years from now is locked away at half its value and I have to throw more money at this when I get a chance with the hopes of getting some return later, probably four years from now...

>:|

EDIT: Oil going up strongly right now.

 

[RSTEIN]

I'm still down like 50%, cause you know, I haven't done shit since things have gone really downhill.

That means all the money I was hoping to have to put a cashdown payment on a house in two years from now is locked away at half its value and I have to throw more money at this when I get a chance with the hopes of getting some return later, probably four years from now...

>:|

Don't get too beat up about it. A lot of professional money managers are down 50%+ this year. This year was the worst since 1931. These are years that you'll encounter only 1-2 times during your investing lifetime. Your only option now is to start the rebuilding process. Don't deviate from your long-term plan. Don't take on excessive risk in an attempt to recoup gains.

AMD - Is creeping lower and lower to the $2 mark. I will snap up a few thousand shares at that price IF I could get some support here. The way I see it is that even if they gets creamed by Intel in the rest of their markets, they own enough assets that they could still sell off. Is there really any way to lose money on AMD if I can get in at $2? I know their tied to ATI, and I'm hoping the new cycle of console hardware announcements (MS in the coming 18 months could also be a boon). I don't expect it to jump to $8, but I'd like to see a nice return in a month. I am very worried about their sales report coming in a few weeks though. It can't possible be good for them. Thoughts.

I'm not going to make a recommendation or anything (don't know enough about what's going on) but several analysts are calling for AMD to file for bankruptcy this year.

 

[Cloudy]

What do you guys think of DVY? I'm looking for an ETF that pays dividends for my roth. It's like 50% financials though :lol

 

[Ether_Snake]

What a day. It's just a number, people!

Let's hope things are down a bit when I have money

 

[Ovid]

I think STEM is a good buy right now heading into the Presidential Inauguration (Jan. 20th). There was a huge spike heading into the Presidential election, then decline afterwards. The month of December saw this stock have a steady increase in price (about $0.40). I think this stock is a good buy in January.

See the bump headed into the election. Now look at the steady increase starting Dec 1st.
STEM closed today at $1.43 (up 5%).

 

[Ether_Snake]

Nikkei above 9000 again. I'll have money to invest this week, but I'm not sure I will. I think the Dow will go back to low 8000 soon enough. Nothing major has yet happened in China, but this is impossible. Something HAS to happen. Demand has fallen and will not go back to previous levels. The whole country's economy was based on strong demand for its products, which has quickly fallen. There has to be a big correction in China and that means the Chinese government will have to act, but considering the disparity in income and the size of its population I can't see any internal action that wouldn't be without major implications. That's if they act. And the US debt is just getting out of hand, like, nearing the point of no return. That's gotta make China react.

Also, in other news:

Obama Considering $310 Billion Tax Cut

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/01/obama-considering-310-billion-tax-cut.html

The Wall Street Journal has sent a news alert that says that Obama is mulling a stimulus plan that will rely more heavily on tax cuts than initially envisaged as a way to win needed Republican support. The Journal says tax cuts could be as much as $310 billion, or 40%, of a total package of $775 billoin.

Meanwhile oil prices continue to rise but I think it has more to do with the overblown Gaza situation rather than production cuts. Once this settles and data comes in, I think we'll see oil prices fall again. I think the Gaza situation will be resolved before Obama is inaugurated.

 

[Ether_Snake]

AMD jumped 12% today.

LDK trims 4th-quarter revenue outlook. Down 15% in AH. Solars will bleed tomorrow.

 

[Cloudy]

I passed up on DVY cos of 50% financials and the expense ratio. Got some VYM instead. Any thoughts?

 

[Ether_Snake]

Can be good long term IMO.

 

[RSTEIN]

Well, I'm about to be knee deep in puts soon, I can feel it. I don't have one single long position right now.

Right now, I own partial put positions in:
- Mattel (MAT)
- Darden Restaurants (actually almost a full position) (DRI)
- Computer Sciences Corp (CSC)
- Iron Mountain (IRM)

After this week I could have full positions in all of them, the most I've had in the market for at least 1 month. Plus I'm looking at 3 or 4 other situations.

 

[Ether_Snake]

ERTS keeps rising, ATVI keeps falling. But that is not logical IMO, ATVI management is very solid and their plan is gold I think.

Solars not hit as hard as I thought they would be, probably due to rising oil prices.

ADSK keeps rising too. Damn, went from like 12 to 21 in a few weeks:|

 

[lil smoke]

I am going to sell NTDOY right now. Better to get back in when it inevitably falls back down anyway.

 

[tyguy20204]

I invested in STP a few weeks ago and it's gone up 76.23% since then.
I also invested in KWK at the same time and it's gone up 66.98%.

I only invested $1000, I wish I had done more. Of course there's no way of knowing ahead of time what will happen.

I'll probably sell them soon, even though I think KWK is incredibly undervalued. P/E of 2.x?!

 

[lil smoke]

I invested in STP a few weeks ago and it's gone up 76.23% since then.
I also invested in KWK at the same time and it's gone up 66.98%.

I only invested $1000, I wish I had done more. Of course there's no way of knowing ahead of time what will happen.

I'll probably sell them soon, even though I think KWK is incredibly undervalued. P/E of 2.x?!

If you had invested more, it would have went down.

JK, but it seems that way for sure. Story of my noob trading career.

 

[Ovid]

STEM up 14% so far today.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I invested in STP a few weeks ago and it's gone up 76.23% since then.
I also invested in KWK at the same time and it's gone up 66.98%.

I only invested $1000, I wish I had done more. Of course there's no way of knowing ahead of time what will happen.

I'll probably sell them soon, even though I think KWK is incredibly undervalued. P/E of 2.x?!

I own STP but I'm down on it. But back when it was in the 20s if I recall, I forget.

Anyway, more bad news and stocks are up. So I guess no matter how bad it gets the bottom is gone already, I guess I missed my chance on ADSK for good and a few others. I was able to call lows lows, but I don't know up to where we'll go, so I'm stuck.

EDIT: But you know what? I'm gonna wait. I don't trust the happy feeling.

 

[tyguy20204]

Anyway, more bad news and stocks are up. So I guess no matter how bad it gets the bottom is gone already, I guess I missed my chance on ADSK for good and a few others. I was able to call lows lows, but I don't know up to where we'll go, so I'm stuck.

EDIT: But you know what? I'm gonna wait. I don't trust the happy feeling.

Oh no doubt, the recent rally is what I would call beginning-of-the-year optimism. The market will eventually fall back down, the only question is how long it will take.

I wish I knew =)

 

[Ether_Snake]

Yeah I see no reason for this. The rise in oil prices is related to the soon-to-be-probably-over conflict in Gaza, and other than that all we are hearing are "worst than expected" news. I'm wondering who's buying to make markets go up that much over the past weeks. I'm surprised the average investor is seemingly so willing to invest now after what we went through.

BTW the more ERTS went up today, the further down ATVI went down. An analyst reduced his forecast on ATVI yesterday, but I think the situation is Kafkaesque.

Anyway, I'm hoping for oil prices to fall again soon, I'm expecting the Gaza conflict to end before Obama's inauguration or soon after at the latest. At worst I won't add to my BHI position if I'm not confident enough and I'll look at other opportunities.

ADSK is the one I wanted to buy weeks ago but I feel it's a bit late right now, I think as long as the economy contracts moreso than expected they will be negatively affected, when all the optimism slows down. ADBE is a close second, hasn't risen too much so far.

 

[Tarazet]

AMD jumped 12% today.

I bought a couple of calls on them when they were near rock bottom. Very happy now. Will be even happier if that deal with Abu Dhabi goes through.

 

[Ether_Snake]

It is going through according to the post 5pm news.

BTW any reason why anyone would see a good future for NVDA? Game companies are already developing games for Intel's Larrabee, and I heard nothing about whatever Nvidia is making for next-gen consoles other than I think it is quite different. I'm getting the impression that it will be more difficult if not impossible for games to be supported by both graphic cards, and right now I'm only hearing about development for Larrabee.

 

[Zyzyxxz]

EDIT: Oil going up strongly right now.

yay!

Not that it has been helping my stock in REXX, dam lost most of its value in such a short time. I should get into solars instead now.

Any recommendations?

 

[Lathentar]

It is going through according to the post 5pm news.

BTW any reason why anyone would see a good future for NVDA? Game companies are already developing games for Intel's Larrabee, and I heard nothing about whatever Nvidia is making for next-gen consoles other than I think it is quite different. I'm getting the impression that it will be more difficult if not impossible for games to be supported by both graphic cards, and right now I'm only hearing about development for Larrabee.

I haven't heard about any development for Larrabee outside of Project Offset which is intended to be a Larrabee showcase. What games have you heard about?

 

[Tarazet]

It is going through according to the post 5pm news.

Cool.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I haven't heard about any development for Larrabee outside of Project Offset which is intended to be a Larrabee showcase. What games have you heard about?

Can't tell, but I know that Offset is made specifically for Larrabe, and there are four other games total being made or ported to it.

Sonarrat: AMD gets US committee OK for The Foundry Company

 

[tyguy20204]

Ok, so I've never shorted stocks before - I've never really had the money - but now I'm thinking about getting into it.

First I open a margins account.

Then, to short a stock, I need an initial margin of 50%.

So, if I short a stock for a total of $1000, then I need at least $500 in my account in order to meet the margin requirements, correct?

Once I've made the transaction, I see that the required maintenance margin is 30% of the current stock value of the shorted stock.

So, one question: The 30% value can be comprised of stocks that I am holding in a long position, correct? It doesn't have to be cash?

And another question: Do I have to pay any interest on the stocks that I've borrowed in order to short?

Thanks, help is appreciated.

 

[Tarazet]

If you're taking an all or nothing approach, that can be just fine. Most penny stocks are penny stocks for a reason, though. If you're looking for massive potential, try AMD. $2.00 and though their situation is kind of tight right now, they're turning their product line around in a big way.

So Cloudy, did you buy AMD?

 

[RumblingRosco]

ATVI has been dropping recently. For a while, I really wasn't sure why, but I'm starting to get suspicious. What the hell caused their "Unusual Expenses" to increase from $0 to $60mln, Selling/Gen./Admin Exp. to increase by ~$146mln, and R&D to increase by $170mln (comparing Q3 '08 with Q3 '07)? All of that, despite more than double the revenue, has resulted in nearly $200mln in operating losses. It makes sense for there to be some increases in expenses as more revenue is earned, but this seems disproportionate to the increase in revenue. I'm starting to question the benefit of the merger between the two companies, and honestly am wondering where all that money is going.

Currently, at its 52-week low, I'm tempted to increase my stake in it, but damn, I'm getting concerned over their financials. I want to see this most recent quarter's report come in, and it better damn well have an impressive operating income.

 

[RSTEIN]

Well, this is the day I've been waiting for and knew was coming. The market had become very overbought. I've sold out my Iron Mountain (IRM) and Parker-Hannifin (PH) for a return of 14.15% and 17.24%, respectively. I'm still working my other put positions (DRI, CSC, MAT).

 

[Ether_Snake]

ATVI has been dropping recently. For a while, I really wasn't sure why, but I'm starting to get suspicious. What the hell caused their "Unusual Expenses" to increase from $0 to $60mln, Selling/Gen./Admin Exp. to increase by ~$146mln, and R&D to increase by $170mln (comparing Q3 '08 with Q3 '07)? All of that, despite more than double the revenue, has resulted in nearly $200mln in operating losses. It makes sense for there to be some increases in expenses as more revenue is earned, but this seems disproportionate to the increase in revenue. I'm starting to question the benefit of the merger between the two companies, and honestly am wondering where all that money is going.

Currently, at its 52-week low, I'm tempted to increase my stake in it, but damn, I'm getting concerned over their financials. I want to see this most recent quarter's report come in, and it better damn well have an impressive operating income.

Well actually ATVI's new strategy, IMO, has been started only very recently, so it must result in high expenses.

What they are planning to do with COD (persistent online game, no more numbered sequels, etc.) and with the rest of their lineups will result in much higher returns in the future IMO, has long as the quality is there. Then you have Diablo, Starcraft, and something else for consoles. EA has nothing solid other than sports. If one weakens, the other strengthens, and I see ATVI strengthening moreso.

Right now the whole sector is hit severly due to the recession, but the one thing I hold I'm not worried about is ATVI and CGT.

EDIT: MON up 13% on raised outlook after Q1 profits double.

 

[Ether_Snake]

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/01/more-bad-news-out-of-china-including.html

More Bad News Out of China, Including Capital Flight

China faces a threat of "abnormal" cross-border capital flow because of global financial tumult, the country's foreign exchange regulator said Tuesday...

More money flowing out of the border could increase the risk of liquidity strain in the country, which is especially dangerous amid the global financial crisis...

China's foreign exchange reserves had fallen for the first time since December 2003, Cai Qiusheng, a SAFE official, told a conference last month. He didn't give specific data of when that happened or by how much.

He said the current reserves were below 1.9 trillion U.S. dollars, the level recorded at the end of September. It was the largest reserve in the world.

The SAFE will improve management on fund flows in and out of the border and more closely monitor the balance of payments, said Hu.

He urged for better risk control in managing foreign exchange reserves, which was "the last safeguard" against risks.

China's central bank said Tuesday it will also strengthen scrutiny of cross-border capital flows and study ways to tackle "abnormal changes" in the balance of payments.

The People's Bank of China said it will check the validity of trade payments and step up supervision on individuals carrying foreign currencies in and out of the country.

[...]

Top U.S. lender Bank of America raising cash to weather a dismal market at home, is selling a $2.83 billion chunk of its holding in China Construction Bank (0939.HK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) at a 12 percent discount on Wednesday, according to a term sheet obtained by Reuters.

The U.S. lender was selling more than 5.62 billion shares, or nearly 13 percent of its holding in Construction Bank, at HK$3.92 apiece, in a placement that had been widely anticipated.

The stake represents about 2.5 percent of Construction Bank, and will leave Bank of America with a 16.6 percent holding in the Beijing-controlled lender once the sale is completed.

"The news has been expected but investors will still take it hard because BoA will most definitely sell more. They need the money," said Francis Lun, general manager with Fulbright Securities in Hong Kong.

A lot more at the link.

 

[RumblingRosco]

Bad news has been coming day after day without much affect to the market. Seems it might finally be catching up with itself, though.

COOL is up to .80 for the first time in ages. Hope it can keep on climbing.
AA took a big hit today after a 13% work force cut. Can't decide if today is time to buy in, or wait it out and see if it goes down more as the week finishes up.
WMI is pretty much floating around 31-34 recently. Wanted to grab it on a down day, may do that this afternoon.
CHK is also something I'm looking at, though I'll probably not end up buying any.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Satyam scandal could be India's Enron

India's biggest corporate scandal in memory threatens future foreign investment flows into Asia's third-largest economy and casts a cloud over growth in its once-booming outsourcing sector.

[...]

The head of Indian outsourcing firm Satyam Computer Services resigned on Wednesday, disclosing that profits had been falsely inflated for years and sending its shares tumbling nearly 80 percent.

[...]

By close of trade, Satyam's share value slumped to about $550 million from around $7 billion as recently as last June.

Ouch

 

[RumblingRosco]

Satyam scandal could be India's Enron



Ouch

Oh shit. That would be a nightmare to have invested in, as a small or large player. Just straight garbage.

 

[Pimpwerx]

Any idea if financials will rally today? I'm up a few hundred bucks on SKF and was considering a quick cashout and buy again around $100. If this is gonna be a sustained plunge throughout the end of the week, the price might end up hitting $120 or so. PEACE.

 

[Tarazet]

Doesn't look like a rally is in the cards. On the plus side, oil is down 10%, back to $43!

 

[Pimpwerx]

Doesn't look like a rally is in the cards. On the plus side, oil is down 10%, back to $43!

Yeah, I held onto it in the end and it went up another 9% today. I can't complain. I'll just keep some stop orders on there to preserve my profits. PEACE.