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[Ether_Snake]

Yeah I should use stop orders when I got a winner, but I haven't had one in a while

ATVI went up the more the markets went down today. Up 12%, due to a Piper Jaffray analyst said to buy.

 

[Pimpwerx]

Educate me. What's a "stop-limit" sell order? On Zecco I have to set the stop price higher than the limit price.

For stock XYZ I set the stop at $120 and the limit at $100 on a sell order. Will it execute a sell once the price drops below $120 and then executes a buy (of the same quantity) once the price plummets further to below $100? PEACE.

EDIT: Nevermind, I think I finally understand. Not particularly useful for me.

 

[Cloudy]

Oh shit. That would be a nightmare to have invested in, as a small or large player. Just straight garbage.

CNBC played back a segment they had with him a few weeks ago where he's talking up his company. Talk about awkward :lol

 

[Ether_Snake]

MSFT dropped to 19.50 today. Pretty low IMO. First time I feel like buying some MSFT as I listen to the conference

Google has made a lot of flat landings, I'm more confident about MS nowadays actually.

 

[Ether_Snake]

ATVI continues to go up today, and STP up 4% too.

 

[Pimpwerx]

ATVI continues to go up today, and STP up 4% too.

Yeah, I was gonna buy into some solars today but decided not to. They all took like a 10% hit yesterday, but I thought the decline would continue. They have all been fluctuating crazy over the last two months. A lot of money to be made there short term or long term, b/c they're all undervalued right now since gas prices have dropped. PEACE.

 

[Suikoguy]

I did not expect COOL to be so far up so early.. Volume is up.. I wonder what is going on?

Up another 10+ cents as of posting

My shares want to know what is going on :lol

 

[Ether_Snake]

Solars have been very volatile for a long time (for as long as I tracked them).

COOL too

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE50701M20090108

Barack Obama warned of a lengthy recession without decisive action, proposing a $1,000 tax cut for working families and improving energy efficiency in millions of homes.

That's my man!

 

[Ovid]

Damn...look at PALM over the last five days. I was thinking of buying a few weeks ago, but didn't see this company coming out with any good products any time soon. Guess I was wrong.

 

[Tarazet]

Rambus got shot down.. damn.

 

[Ether_Snake]

ATVI has been up steadily as markets have been going down for the past two days. Share buybacks? And btw do companies have to announce when they buy back shares?

BTW for Soka: Dividends: What the Bank Giveth, the Bank Now Taketh Away

 

[Ether_Snake]

BTW TTWO now trading at $7. I don't think they will bought out soon, they probably still have to bleed, but it will come. 2009 should be a pretty bad year for them.

Maybe THQ will be bought sooner. But they are still expensive for what they are worth IMO.

Also:

Boeing to lay off 4,500

Boeing Co. said Friday it will lay off 4,500 workers at its Commercial Airplanes unit. It's unknown how many of the lay offs will be at the company's Gresham plant, which supplies the Seattle-based unit.

 

[Deku Tree]

Wait what happened to Playboy, PLA?

1000% return?

I would have made millions on a few thousand if I hadn't sold out for my by comparison quite modest profit... anyone know what happened?

Or is this just after hours nonsense? It hasn't been over 20 since the dot com days... now 27? For what?

EDIT: Or is it Google?

Fannie Mae (Public, NYSE:FNM) 28.61 +27.82 (3,521.52%)

 

[iced lightning]

ESLR and SOLF seem like good solar plays. Not sure which I'm going to invest in yet...

 

[Ether_Snake]

Deku: Looks like a bug.

EDIT: And as I have been saying for a while, it's what will happen in China that will really ring the bell. Here's a new article:

WSJ: Chinese Imports, Exports Continued to Fall in December

The illusion developed over the last decade that China had become an independent power with a population which could make and consume goods at levels which have never been seen before. During the last two quarters, it has become clear that the the opposite is true. China's economy may be the most dependent large economy on earth.

If GDP in the US, EU, and Japan contract at 5% this year, China's economy is very likely to shrink faster. It will be faced with a sharp drop in what it makes and exports. More importantly, large numbers of Chinese are leaving the huge new industrial cities and going back to rural regions where they can at least find work growing their own food. What is more than a trickle now could become a flood. Those who have gone back to non-industrialized sections of the country will not be net consumers at all.

With a short-lived and dwindling middle class, China no longer has the economic core to continue the "miracle". China has just become another big country in trouble.

There is no way that they can turn around considering the size of the population and the disparity in salaries and living conditions. China is facing what the US faced when the depression occurred, same scenario. But their situation is far worst due to how difficult it will be to steer their economy away from this pitfall. I expect the world economy to get it's real wakeup call soon, and it will come from China.

I would stay away from Chinese stocks for now. I own some STP, but other than that I'll wait for some commotion, it has to be on its way.

EDIT: Also worth noting:

Chinese Central Bank to Test Program to Settle Trade in Yuan Rather Than Dollars

China's central bank said yesterday that it plans to implement a pilot program that would settle overseas trade with the Chinese currency instead of the US dollar.

The People's Bank of China will expand financial cooperation with overseas economies and "properly deal with the global financial crisis," the central bank said.

"We'll actively join international efforts to tackle the global financial crisis while safeguarding national interests," the central bank said...

China will allow the yuan to be used for settlement between Guangdong Province and the Yangtze River Delta, China's two economic powerhouses, and the special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau, according to the central bank.

Meanwhile, exporters in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Yunnan Province in southwestern China will be allowed to use the yuan to settle trade payments with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

 

[Ovid]

EDIT: And as I have been saying for a while, it's what will happen in China that will really ring the bell. Here's a new article:

WSJ: Chinese Imports, Exports Continued to Fall in December



There is no way that they can turn around considering the size of the population and the disparity in salaries and living conditions. China is facing what the US faced when the depression occurred, same scenario. But their situation is far worst due to how difficult it will be to steer their economy away from this pitfall. I expect the world economy to get it's real wakeup call soon, and it will come from China.

I would stay away from Chinese stocks for now. I own some STP, but other than that I'll wait for some commotion, it has to be on its way.

EDIT: Also worth noting:

Chinese Central Bank to Test Program to Settle Trade in Yuan Rather Than Dollars

So your saying that the world economies will be headed to a depression and things will get far worse than they have been these past few months?

 

[Relix]

So your saying that the world economies will be headed to a depression and things will get far worse than they have been these past few months?

Obvious right now.

 

[Ether_Snake]

So your saying that the world economies will be headed to a depression and things will get far worse than they have been these past few months?

I'm saying the impact of the recession on China has yet to truly emerge, and that it will be more significant for them than the US and Europe.

Of course, the US' biggest problem will be what happens with the dollar, which will be tied to how China will act.

EDIT:

China to Relax Bad Debt Rules to Encourage Lending

In another sign that China's slump is serious enough to evoke crisis responses from the officialdom, banking officials there announced that they were relaxing rules on bank bad debt ratios. The objective is to encourage banks to continue to extend credit to borrowers experiencing short-term difficulties who have viable businesses. The concern, of course, is that banks will have trouble determining who will pull through, and could easily wind up with a lot of dud loans.

“What we’re concerned about is whether banks will, under government interference, boost lending without properly recognizing the risks,” said Liao Qiang, the rating company’s Beijing-based analyst, in an interview. “Governments tend to relax prudential regulatory requirements in difficult times. The key is how banks” react.

Ho ho ho, sounds familiar.

 

[Deku Tree]

What happened to Citi?

 

[Ether_Snake]

3.2M Wiis sold in the US in December supposedly. That's got to be good

EDIT: China's Exports Fall by Most Since 1999 as Global Recession Reduces Demand

China’s exports fell the most in almost a decade in December as the deepening global recession cut demand for the nation’s toys, clothes and electronics.

Shipments dropped 2.8 percent, the official China Daily said today. That compares with a 21.7 percent gain a year earlier. Exports grew 17.2 percent for all of 2008, the newspaper said, down from 25.7 percent in 2007.

Waning export demand has led to protests by fired factory employees, an exodus of 600,000 migrant workers from the manufacturing hub of Guangdong, and an estimated urban unemployment rate of more than 9 percent. Premier Wen Jiabao pledged Jan. 11 to add to the nation’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package to create jobs and avoid social instability.

“There is little hope that exports will recover this year, as developed economies remain mired in recessions,” said Sun Mingchun, a Hong Kong-based economist at Nomura Holdings. “Textile, steel and electronic exports are the most badly hurt.”

[...]

The state-backed Chinese Academy of Social Science forecast 9.4 percent urban unemployment by the end of 2008, to rise in 2009 as exports and production cool.

What do people think about Honda and Toyota?

I'm thinking they are going to face some though times ahead as I expect car sales to drop further than anticipated so far. But they might be good buys a few months from now, or not but on longer term.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Timber!

 

[dionysus]

I've been looking to short TM at a good price, either directly or through options. I have visited two of the BRIC countries in the last 4 months, these places are done. The auto industry is now a commodity especially with players from India and China looking to expand their presence globally at really cheap prices. Remember, the Koreans used to be regarded like Chinese/Indian manufacturers are regarded today. And in a short time the Koreans were able to become competitive globally and in quality.

 

[lil smoke]

getting burnt to a crisp right now. :/

 

[toxicgonzo]

Sold my short positions early this morning. I should have waited it out a little longer, oh well.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I've been looking to short TM at a good price, either directly or through options. I have visited two of the BRIC countries in the last 4 months, these places are done. The auto industry is now a commodity especially with players from India and China looking to expand their presence globally at really cheap prices. Remember, the Koreans used to be regarded like Chinese/Indian manufacturers are regarded today. And in a short time the Koreans were able to become competitive globally and in quality.

Yeah but how many years would it take? I'd say around 10. Meanwhile I don't think GM and Ford will do better than they have, I think they are done for good, so Toyota and Honda have room for growth. Korea is different, their society and culture is near identical to Japan's, so it's no wonder they did as good. India and China isn't as much of a safe bet IMO. What is China or India making today that is being sold abroad outside of what they are making for Western companies?

And I'm glad I haven't invested recently, I was sure the rally was unfounded. I'm still waiting, I want to see China on the front pages first before I can believe that we know the extent of the worldwide economic situation.

 

[Relix]

Short = $$$

Awesome

 

[kathode]

Man, the temptation to buy in right now or pick up some calls is strong.

 

[dionysus]

Yeah but how many years would it take? I'd say around 10. Meanwhile I don't think GM and Ford will do better than they have, I think they are done for good, so Toyota and Honda have room for growth. Korea is different, their society and culture is near identical to Japan's, so it's no wonder they did as good. India and China isn't as much of a safe bet IMO. What is China or India making today that is being sold abroad outside of what they are making for Western companies?

And I'm glad I haven't invested recently, I was sure the rally was unfounded. I'm still waiting, I want to see China on the front pages first before I can believe that we know the extent of the worldwide economic situation.

To me more clear, I am implying that short term there are no prospects for auto companies. They have way to much capacity for global demand and consumption is slowing in all the countries, not just the US where it is most pronounced. The belief in the BRIC turned out to be a house of cards. Medium term, there may be some opportunity to be long Japanese autos but I think you need to wait. Long term, the car business is becoming more and more a commodity with too many players for companies to have the profit margins they had in the past.

 

[Ether_Snake]

True, green cars will make things unpredictable too. Anyone can come out with a bright and shining solution that will breakthrough the establishment, and a lot of money could also be spent on green cars only to bear no fruit.

 

[Gallbaro]

I just looked at V, its lower than it IPO levels?!?

True, green cars will make things unpredictable too. Anyone can come out with a bright and shining solution that will breakthrough the establishment, and a lot of money could also be spent on green cars only to bear no fruit.

I think it is pretty much a given the next generation of cars with use a motor or four for propulsion, just the energy storage is up to debate.


On the other hand I think the government will block electric cars because they are too efficient and reliable due to minimal moving parts, putting a whole lot of people out of work and planned obsolescence to the test.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Yeah V is lower than IPO levels but what do you expect in the current situation. There are less credit cards being used, less credit cards being offered, etc

And damn the government, we need everything to go green, all our infrastructure needs to be renewed. It would create so many jobs and put more money in businesses and people's pockets so they could spend it where it matters. Argh.

Anyway, tonight's news:

Japan Machinery Orders Plunge Record 16.2% as Global Slump Chokes Demand

Japanese machinery orders fell by a record in November as businesses cut spending amid a deepening global recession that’s choked off demand for the country’s cars and electronics.

Orders, an indicator of capital spending in the next three to six months, slid 16.2 percent from October, the biggest drop since the current survey began in 1987, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted an 8 percent decline.

Motorola Cuts 4,000 More Jobs as Phone Sales Slump

And...

Stimulus Plan to Cost $850 Billion, Emanuel Says

The U.S. economic stimulus package being negotiated in Congress will cost $850 billion and will include about $300 billion in tax cuts, said President-elect Barack Obama’s incoming chief of staff.

Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel spoke with reporters today at the Capitol in Washington, where lawmakers are rushing to work out details of the two-year plan. Obama and lawmakers had previously been discussing a package of about $775 billion. Earlier today, Democratic Senator Charles Schumer of New York said the price tag might rise to as much $850 billion.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Autodesk to cut 750 jobs, sees 4Q loss

Knew it would happen, good thing I held off. Now, when to buy... I think it can go back down to 12 or so. But Around 14 is good for me. I'll wait a bit.

 

[lil smoke]

Any long AAPL holders? What are you doing with it? This is scary.

 

[kathode]

Any long AAPL holders? What are you doing with it? This is scary.

Still got about $1500 tied up in that stock, at a buy-in around 110. It sucks, but it's really no different than anything else these days. Just hold on and hope the ride ends in a year or so

 

[Deku Tree]

Is now the time to Double Down on Citi? Or bail out?

 

[AstroLad]

i think i am going to short my 401k

 

[tyguy20204]

FAZ (Financial Bear 3x) is up 21% today, as of now. I was going to buy in the morning, but I didn't pull the trigger.

I wish I had =(

 

[dionysus]

Is now the time to Double Down on Citi? Or bail out?

High risk, high reward. Be prepared to lose it all. The guys who bet on Morgan Stanley at its low made a killing, then again the guys who bet on AIG when they thought it could go no lower lost it all.

My super speculative play I have been considering is FIG, Fortress Investment Group, the public hedge fund company.

 

[ALeperMessiah]

my short on apple is at 78.55, apple has been hanging around the 80-81 level. I'll probably ride out for the rest of the day and see where it goes, then bail if it's not around my level.

 

[Deku Tree]

My super speculative play I have been considering is FIG, Fortress Investment Group, the public hedge fund company.

Anyone who bought FIG when they did their IPO, thinking they were going to deliver Hedge Fund quality returns to the masses, already lost it all. What a scam.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Argh why did markets go up. I need to decide if to buy some ADSK now or not. Difficult decision time. Tomorrow I make a move or not. What I really wanted to buy first was BHI. I need to add to it. Maybe I'll do that first, and try to catch ADSK later, again:|

EDIT: Midway jumped 12% today?

 

[Deku Tree]

So Citi is breaking up?

“Any new solution is likely to need an incremental infusion of common equity, either from the government, private investors or the public markets, any of which is likely to be dilutive to existing Citi shareholders.”

Looks like "double down" wasn't the right call on this one, and maybe "bail out" was.

Hope you guys were able to cash out your profits last week or earlier.

 

[Ether_Snake]

ATVI up nicely after NPD results. Ubisoft up 5% too.

But damnit, BHI must go lower.

 

[toxicgonzo]

FAZ (Financial Bear 3x) is up 21% today, as of now. I was going to buy in the morning, but I didn't pull the trigger.

I wish I had =(

I had some of that, except I bought in when it was at $69/share. With its recent upswing I was at least able to minimize my losses. It's a darn good thing I held fast when it reached the thirties.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Fitch Foresees "Hard Landing" for China

China faces its biggest “employment adjustment” since reforms of state-owned enterprises in the 1990s, so social stability “is clearly an issue,” McCormack said. “There is a question of how easy it is to redeploy millions or tens of millions of unemployed factory workers to infrastructure construction products that may be located elsewhere in the country.”

Waning exports have led to protests by fired employees, an exodus of 600,000 migrant workers from the manufacturing hub of Guangdong last year, and an urban unemployment rate estimated at more than 9 percent by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences...

Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan and Liu Mingkang, the chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, both acknowledged this week that the government risks missing its 8 percent target for creating jobs and maintaining social stability.

Will China lead the world into depression?

Mr Edwards said investors have a "touching faith" that China's authorities are in control of events.

"Could the economic situation in China become so bad that it threatens the regime itself? Of course it could. But before being swept away in a tidal wave of worker unrest it has one key tool in its economic armoury it has used before. MEGA-DEVALUATION. China has a track record of such things. At the end of 1993 the authorities devalued the yuan by 33pc."

A replay would be the surest root to a Smoot-Hawley II.

"Amid confidence that the ongoing, massive, monetary and fiscal stimulus will prevent a repeat of the Great Depression, will it instead be competitive devaluation and implosion of world trade that we should watch out for."

Societe Generale Analyst Calls For Depression

The French has turned to a trait which has been uncommon in the European country.

One of the most well-regarded analysts at Societe Generale says that it is time for the US to gird for a depression. The notion that the economy might recover is useless.

According to Reuters, Albert Edwards believes that While economic data in developed economies increasingly reflects depression rather than a deep recession, the real surprise in 2009 may lie elsewhere."

That "elsewhere" would be China. "It is becoming clear that the Chinese economy is imploding and this raises the possibility of regime change. To prevent this, the authorities would likely devalue the yuan. A subsequent trade war could see a re-run of the Great Depression."

Douglas A. McIntyre

Global lending thaw may yet return to deep freeze

Hell may yet freeze over again in a second wave of the global credit crisis.

Despite some evidence of a bank lending thaw, some analysts worry that the fragile recovery in credit markets is based almost entirely on gargantuan central bank liquidity programs and government bailouts which have yet to be funded via debt markets.

"The short-term fix has been to throw more money at the problem," said Jes Black, an analyst and fund manager with NetBlack Capital, a New York-based currency fund.

"But we haven't really addressed the fundamental factors that got us here," namely excessive borrowing, Black said.

 

[toxicgonzo]

Inauguration day

Point: Obama's inauguration tomorrow will spring forth a wave of optimism to investors that will start a (temporary) bull rally

Counter-point: American investors are scared by any changes in political power, even if it's bringing into office an official that the majority elected. Consequently, investors will sell.



Your thoughts?

 

[Ether_Snake]

I think overall it won't do much, unless you're looking at really short term, and that's pretty much unpredictable at this point. I think actual economic news will have more impact.

BTW, I was right:

Israel to pull out of Gaza by Obama inauguration - The Associated Press

Expect oil prices to fall or at least not rise. Unless another event occurs.

 

[Ether_Snake]

ABX has been doing well recently.

Anyway I'm looking at finally adding to BHI, but I still feel like it can go lower. Any opinions?

 

[toxicgonzo]

Looks like BHI is continuing downward along with everything else. I'd hold until it starts to stabilize. Of course, I'm no expert.

 

[Ovid]

I think STEM is a good buy right now heading into the Presidential Inauguration (Jan. 20th). There was a huge spike heading into the Presidential election, then decline afterwards. The month of December saw this stock have a steady increase in price (about $0.40). I think this stock is a good buy in January.

See the bump headed into the election. Now look at the steady increase starting Dec 1st.
STEM closed today at $1.43 (up 5%).

STEM up 8% so far today. They are $1.73.