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[Relix]

Bear or Bull? I am leaning for bull at first, then a downturn, and probably, just probably end up green in the 50s. Depends on today's reports.

 

[Gallbaro]

Good thing I did not listen to myself and went with QLD instead, with a very tight stop limit. :lol

 

[Ether_Snake]

BHI, HAL, etc., up 5%+

Home sales supposedly rose 6.5% in December. Arhmmm.

 

[Relix]

Bear or Bull? I am leaning for bull at first, then a downturn, and probably, just probably end up green in the 50s. Depends on today's reports.

Holy shit my prediction was SPOT ON. Like... just straight perfect except in the 50... it ended at 38.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Hehe good call.

According to Roubini's RGE: Iraq is undergoing grassroots pressure towards oil nationalization and it is already affecting foreign investment. On Friday, the British company, BG Group, and Germany’s Wintershall said they had decided not to bid on oil contracts offered in Iraq’s first licensing round since the US-led invasion in 2003.

I doubt it will happen though, not soon anyway.

 

[kathode]

Holy shit my prediction was SPOT ON. Like... just straight perfect except in the 50... it ended at 38.

What's tomorrow? I'm am thinking we will be down unless there are earnings surprises.

 

[Gallbaro]

Holy shit my prediction was SPOT ON. Like... just straight perfect except in the 50... it ended at 38.

Tell me oh holy one, do I create a trade trigger for QID tomorrow to correlate with my stop limit on QLD?

Tomorrow we only have the Consumer Index.

 

[kathode]

I took out puts on Dupont yesterday. Looking to dump them now for a 66% gain, but considering holding on to see if we go lower this week.

 

[lil smoke]

I'm taking $2500 out of the market today, just gotta figure out what to sell off, and exactly when but shit is quite jumpy today.

 

[kathode]

Heh, so much for a "brutal" week. Looks like we're in for a 3rd straight day of gains. Dow futures up 150. Financials are much higher in the premarket. I was considering puts on Wells-Fargo earlier this week. They're up nearly 20% in the premarket :lol

 

[toxicgonzo]

Heh, so much for a "brutal" week. Looks like we're in for a 3rd straight day of gains. Dow futures up 150. Financials are much higher in the premarket. I was considering puts on Wells-Fargo earlier this week. They're up nearly 20% in the premarket :lol

ack, my short positions are gonna get murdered.

Hmm, maybe I can counter with a larger sum of longs?

 

[kathode]

ack, my short positions are gonna get murdered.

Hmm, maybe I can counter with a larger sum of longs?

I wouldn't panic just yet. There's a lot of economic data coming Thursday and Friday, including unemployment numbers and GDP data. My general feeling is that a streak of more than three straight days of gains is pretty rare. The wildcard though is the whole stimulus thing, which is largely what's sending financials so much higher today because of talk of the plan to fix up banks.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Ah man BHI up 9% on earnings. Higher profits, lowered outlook.

Damnit I have the worst of luck. Back to waiting.

 

[lil smoke]

Damnit I have the worst of luck. Back to waiting.

You and me both. I did some sell offs on stale holdings, only to see them jump an hour afterwards. This aint for me. Out of this biz, and keeping my dayjob.

 

[Tarazet]

I just bought a whole bunch of puts on financials. WFC spiking up 25% is exactly the opportunity I was waiting for, and that bubble is going to pop all over everything.

 

[Tarazet]

It's so funny to see all these lemmings taking their turn leaping off the cliff. Who in their right mind would pay almost $21 a share for Wells Fargo after they lost $2.6B in a quarter?

 

[Zyzyxxz]

Dammit I should have gotten in for JP Morgan when it was under $22!

 

[toxicgonzo]

I saved my butt today by daytrading FAS with seven times the amount of cash I had in FAZ. FAZ dropped from $57.63 yesterday to $39.33 today.

My only regret is exhausting my cash supply. Now I'll wait 3 days for my money to settle.

 

[Relix]

I do serious investigation and info-seeking before starting a normal trading day, which is a whole day affair for me (at least two times a week i dedicate to trading, except those days I know something special will happen).

Anyway, I fear tomorrow will be a red day. Starbucks cutting jobs, plus supposedly Target coming in for cuts will definitely shake the market. To go along with this prediction, you have to consider few keep financial stocks these days, so those might drag down the Dow if people do sell them off tomorrow to gain profits.

On the other hand, if the Stimulus plan goes well then expect a green day. Tomorrow is a trading day for me but I am really uncertain on what will go on with the plan.

Bad News for the Plan = Surely red day.

Good News for the Plan = There's still the chance it could go into red, but in the low #s. Green is possible if investors don't feel that afraid of the Consumer Index hitting the shitter even more.

Plan Approved = Will definitely show a green tendency. Keep financial stocks.

And that's my prediction for tomorrow. Will definitely come up with something in the morning, depending on the news =P. Let's take bets predicting!

 

[Tarazet]

No way. Tomorrow, no matter what happens, will be a red day. Buy the rumor, sell the news.

 

[Relix]

No way. Tomorrow, no matter what happens, will be a red day. Buy the rumor, sell the news.

Which is why I said "I fear tomorrow will be a red day". Not fear really... I love to short. Still, it won't clear today's and yesterday's wins. -130 to -170 maybe. As I said, there's still a chance in the air depending on the stimulus plan, but I am betting on red. I do a morning check though, spend from 7AM to 10AM reading news and stuff :lol

 

[Pimpwerx]

It's so funny to see all these lemmings taking their turn leaping off the cliff. Who in their right mind would pay almost $21 a share for Wells Fargo after they lost $2.6B in a quarter?

I don't know. The market is irrational. Citigroup is a mess financially, but it dropped to 3, then jumped to 6, and was holding steady there for a while despite it being obvious that they were having problems. So I go in at $4.25...literally minutes before their CEO resigns. :O Yeah, I almost tore out my hair that day watching it plunge. But look now. The stock is back to $4.20, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it back near $6 within a week. The company is still a mess? Why is it going back up? Maybe for the same reason I got in...the government simply won't let them fail. Enough money has been spent on Citi that they can always turn to Daddy Wallbucks in Congress for some cash.

I'm sure the stock is undervalued, but I'm pretty sure I'm gonna dump it before the next earnings report. I don't want to suffer another bloodbath. But financials are almost as volatile as solars, and getting a lot more love from the government than any other sector. So I can understand why some will continue to invest in them. PEACE.

EDIT: Relix, I'm interested to know what days you prefer to trade on. Is there a method to the madness, or do you just base it on your personal schedule? I was wondering if there were good days to trade and bad days, and if there is a way to tell.

 

[Tarazet]

I don't know. The market is irrational. Citigroup is a mess financially, but it dropped to 3, then jumped to 6, and was holding steady there for a while despite it being obvious that they were having problems. So I go in at $4.25...literally minutes before their CEO resigns. :O Yeah, I almost tore out my hair that day watching it plunge. But look now. The stock is back to $4.20, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it back near $6 within a week. The company is still a mess? Why is it going back up? Maybe for the same reason I got in...the government simply won't let them fail. Enough money has been spent on Citi that they can always turn to Daddy Wallbucks in Congress for some cash.

Similarly, Wells Fargo went to the moon today because they say they won't need any more government capital to keep afloat. Well, guess what? People are going to realize pretty soon that their situation still sucks, they're still bleeding money and things aren't returning to normal.

 

[Relix]

EDIT: Relix, I'm interested to know what days you prefer to trade on. Is there a method to the madness, or do you just base it on your personal schedule? I was wondering if there were good days to trade and bad days, and if there is a way to tell.

The market seems to be driven by craziness and insiders right now. It's completely illogical. Some things just make no sense at all. Anyway, I usually trade on Tuesdays. Most of the time I do it this day, since Monday's are slow and I feel like taking a break. Also, in this market lately Monday's seem to be red. I love to short but it makes me nervous. Then, depending on the mood of the market and news I choose either a Thursday or Friday. Many times investing a Friday is a good choice for bulls in the day, and at the end you can sell for a quick profit. Depending on circumstances I hold and sell at the same time. Thursdays have always been great for me.

On the other hand, Tuesdays and Thursday's do fall into my schedule, making things a little smoother. I also do some light trading of a few stocks every day if I feel like it. As I've stated before, the market has been great for me for a while now. It's just been WIN WIN WIN WIN WIN for me with no losses. Proud to say that one of my investment accounts is over $10K, and another one I started some time ago with a meager thousand has turned into $4.5K. The $10K I've let to rest, since I am just loaning some money and making interest back to people as a side business. Risky, but has been doing fine so far.

So yeah, the market is insane. Hard to predict, controlled by insiders who have 70% of the market for themselves. It's tense, but somewhat fun.

Similarly, Wells Fargo went to the moon today because they say they won't need any more government capital to keep afloat. Well, guess what? People are going to realize pretty soon that their situation still sucks, they're still bleeding money and things aren't returning to normal.

Yeah, it's ridiculous.

 

[kathode]

Yeah the S&P is now on a four-day green streak. There is a stimulus package vote tonight but it's almost a guaranteed pass by the House, and it's still got components working their way through the Senate, so I'm not sure it will have a big effect. I'm hoping the Starbucks reports drags down the consumer sector a bit and I can make a quick buck on my DD puts.

Also, perennial favorite Nintendo has an earnings report coming up tonight, or whenever they do that sort of thing in Tokyo.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Obama wins House passage of economic stimulus

President Barack Obama scored his first major legislative victory on Wednesday with passage of an $825 billion economic stimulus package by a sharply divided U.S. House of Representatives on a 244-188 vote.

Obama, who took office eight days ago, was denied, at least for now, his goal of bipartisanship. Every Republican who voted opposed the landmark bill, complaining it contained too much new spending and not enough tax cuts.

All but 11 of Obama's fellow Democrats in the House supported the bill to combat the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. The Senate begins debate next week.

Nakedcapitalism.com was talking about how Obama might have been making so many compromises for the Republicans that the whole thing will be ineffective in the end. Instead of going with something that could work, he's going with a "please everybody" plan.

I like this bit here (not):

"The Tarp is a fiscal straitjacket"

Obama's willingness to compromise is serving him badly here. The Reagan Administration fought hard for what it wanted, and got about 75% (of course, the easy 75%, the tax cuts and defense spending, but not other budget cuts). Obama is willing to settle for less, and was too quick to offer the tax cuts as a compromise, which has merely emboldened the Republicans to seek even more, targeted to the affluent. Today, the Senate Appropriations Committee added $70 billion to the stimulus package in the form of alternative minimum tax relief, which will aid households earning from $100,000 to $500,000.

Anyway I'm still waiting on the sideline. Can't day-trade.

 

[iced lightning]

Silly financial stocks... Stem cells is where the smart money was. ACTC.PK has went up 1000% in the past month.

 

[Relix]

Silly financial stocks... Stem cells is where the smart money was. ACTC.PK has went up 1000% in the past month.

Told ya guys :lol . Red Day.... 130-200 range.

 

[Ether_Snake]

NTDOY down 10% on lowered forecast.

 

[kathode]

NTDOY down 10% on lowered forecast.

I think this is literally like the fifth or sixth earnings report from them in a row where they've dropped significantly afterwards.

 

[tyguy20204]

Does anyone else think Amazon will beat expectations today? I think their profit margin will be down (it's never been high to begin with) but the sales will be very healthy. They are on record as saying the holiday season was their "best ever" but who knows what that means.

I just bought in at 50, we will see.

 

[Ether_Snake]

ABX has been gold (pun) over the past months.

 

[Pimpwerx]

Am I nuts for saying this is worse than November? I don't remember my watch list wearing a cloak of red like this back then. The only thing green on my watch list is an ultrashort ETF. It kinda sucks b/c I won't have anymore money to invest for a couple of weeks.

Any thoughts on how long the market will be in the crapper? Can I expect a couple more dips for the Dow into the 7,000's again over the next few months? I feel I should have held onto my last deposit and scooped up some of these bargains. PEACE.

 

[Tarazet]

Anyway I'm still waiting on the sideline. Can't day-trade.

I don't day-trade. I next-day-trade. Bought Wells Fargo February puts yesterday, which (now that I know what I'm doing) I wouldn't have done if I wasn't POSITIVE they would have tanked today. And they did. Trying to sell for a 25% profit. Edit: done.

 

[Tarazet]

Looks like the hedge funds came out of hibernation.

 

[CharlieDigital]

Nothing on Sony's net quarterly profits being down 95% yet?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090129/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_sony

Sony's quarterly net profit tumbles 95 percent

TOKYO – Sony said Thursday its net profit plunged 95 percent in the October-December quarter, as the holiday shopping season provided no respite for the struggling electronics giant and tepid sales of TVs, digital cameras and cell phones hit its bottom line.

The Japanese manufacturing icon said its usually dependable electronics division posted its first-ever operating loss in the fiscal third quarter. It also reiterated its forecast for a net loss of 150 billion yen ($1.67 billion) for the full fiscal year through March — its first loss in 14 years.​

 

[Gallbaro]

New key lesson for day trading.

When you decide to start make sure you check the fucking weather.

I am now smack dab in the middle of the disastor area without any power probably until saturday, I had been ready to switch from QLD to QID and then power goes out due to the worst ice storm I have ever seen.

Thank Allah I put in a stop limit.

 

[tyguy20204]

Amazon reports EPS of .52 compared to estimates of .39.

Stock up 8% after hours.

I knew they would do well.

 

[gkryhewy]

I think this is literally like the fifth or sixth earnings report from them in a row where they've dropped significantly afterwards.

Conservative outlook, and lo, they'll beat it next quarter :lol . They'll probably bounce around a ~43 baseline for the foreseeable future.

 

[RotBot]

Amazon reports EPS of .52 compared to estimates of .39.

Stock up 8% after hours.

I knew they would do well.

I bought $1200 Amazon after reading your post because I wanted to dump Honda for something else. Thanks.

 

[tyguy20204]

I bought $1200 Amazon after reading your post because I wanted to dump Honda for something else. Thanks.

No problem! I'm glad I pulled the trigger on this one. It's up 13% in after hours now. I must say, though, that I have no idea what it will do from here on out/into tomorrow.

 

[Relix]

Wow the market did even worse than I expected :lol 230... close to the 200 I named. My prediction skillz not bad at all. Also... dammit. Missed on Amazon =(

 

[Ether_Snake]

I'm guessing we'll keep boucing again and again every time the Dow hits 8000 or just below, until a really in your face oh-shit news hits.

 

[Ovid]

STEM went from a low of $2.20 today to $2.78 after hours. I'm telling u guys the game to play is biotech, specifically stem cells. Here is the cover of Time magazine next week.

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1874717,00.html

 

[Ovid]

Transplanted adult stem cells have been found to reverse paralysis associated with spinal cord injuries in lab rats, a new study finds.

The study, headed up by Miodrag Stojkovic, deputy director and head of the Cellular Reprogramming Laboratory at Centro de Investigacion Principe Felipe in Spain, involved transplanting so-called progenitor stem cells from the lining of rats' spinal cords into rodents with serious spinal cord injuries.

The rats recovered significant motor activity one week after injury, Stojkovic and his co-authors wrote in the Jan. 27 early online edition of the journal Stem Cells.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20090129/sc_livescience/studystemcellsreverseparalysisinrats

 

[Ovid]

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Patients in the early stages of multiple sclerosis had their disability reversed in a study that used their stem cells to “reset” their malfunctioning immune system.

All 21 patients in the study at Northwestern University in Chicago had the “relapsing-remitting” form of the disease that makes their symptoms alternately flare up and recede. Three years after being treated, on average, 17 of the patients had improved on tests of their symptoms, 16 had experienced no relapse and none had deteriorated, the study found.

“This is the first study to actually show reversal of disability,” said Richard Burt, an associate professor in the division of immunotherapy at Northwestern, and the lead author of the study published today in the British journal, the Lancet. “Some people had complete disappearance of all symptoms.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601124&sid=a9RWlyVaUzCk&refer=home

 

[Ether_Snake]

I don't have money for new stocks, only to add to my current holdings. :|

Japan Heads for Worst Recession as Production Slumps, Jobless Rate Surges

Japan headed for its worst postwar recession as factory output slumped an unprecedented 9.6 percent in December, unemployment surged and households cut spending.

The drop in production eclipsed the previous record of 8.5 percent set only a month earlier, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. The jobless rate soared to 4.4 percent from 3.9 percent, the biggest jump in 41 years.

Recessions in the U.S. and Europe and a slowdown in China have smothered demand for Japanese cars and electronics. Toshiba Corp., which is firing 4,500 workers, yesterday forecast a record annual loss and said it will delay building a chip factory. Honda Motor Co. this week widened production cuts.

“Japan’s economy is falling off a cliff,” said Junko Nishioka, an economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. “There’s really nothing out there to drive growth.”

 

[mAcOdIn]

I'm telling you guys, Ford is a steal at ~2 bucks. Ford will rise again!

 

[Ovid]

I'm telling you guys, Ford is a steal at ~2 bucks. Ford will rise again!

I know F has some working capital but I wouldn't be surprised if u see them ask for a hand out. I would stay away from auto and financial companies. We still haven't it the bottom yet.

 

[WORLDWIDEWII]

STEM went from a low of $2.20 today to $2.78 after hours. I'm telling u guys the game to play is biotech, specifically stem cells. Here is the cover of Time magazine next week.

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1874717,00.html

cool will check them out.